Economics of GW

i was just wondering about the economics of GW. When the Totem Axe came out, they were selling at around 50k, in the very begining, even higher. I sold one today for 7k (traded it for a FDS previously). Now, what I am wondering about is the stages an item/weapon can go through, in terms of money-value. I really just want your opinion so I can make some money, and be there when the band wagon starts rolling. Here is my hypothesis:

1. Weapon is introduced, not very many people know of it, know it's uses. Small Supply, Small Price(or no price at all, as sellers would most likely not sell at this stage)

2. Weapon is advertised (in the case of the Totem Axe, through The Scribe[where has he gone?]). Uses of the weapon are found, but still very people have it. Supply low, demand high, high selling point.

3. If the weapon is hard to get, takes a long time, or is dropped rarely, the process will end at Stage 2. If not, more people get the weapon themselves, farming of the weapon starts. Price remainsquite high, but is dropping.

4. Weapon is common now, as most people can buy/get one from a drop, though people will still pay a small price for it. Weapon remains at this stage for around four months.

5. As people stop farming the weapon, is becomes rarer. Only people needing the weapon or stumbling across it will probably acquire one. Prices are on the rise.

6. Prices reach a peak, though below stage 2 prices, as interest is again shown in the weapon. The interest is not as fierce as in the begining as the weapon is not advertised, and there isnt hype around it. Price is medium/high.

7. Weapon repeats courses 4-6, though in a smaller way. Prices are medium, but fluctuating by around 5k, either way. Weapon will remain in this position, unless an update over powers it / nerfs it.

Again, i am just wondering if you think this is an accurate model. I hope to expand on this little bit of information, if you do think it's accurate, and produce a larger surmise of GW economics.

i'm not in any way experienced in sales of items, but it sounds like a very logical path to follow.
i mean... that's how real-world economy works and, as far as i know, GW tried to follow those models of supply & demand

As happened with Raj's Fervor, #5 is wrong. Rajazan's Fervor used to be 100k+, now it's dropped to as low as 10k. Demand is low, number of swords in the market are fairly low. The price is not going up.

I wouldn't really agree with phases 5,6 and 7. The item usually peaks near the point of discovery, and never gets anywhere close to it because there are already many of the items are already out there. The steps make sense, but I have yet to see an item follow that pattern yet.

The problem with the above theory is that you are "assuming" Drop rates will stay the same. Changes to the mechanics of the games by the Devs. There was a time when I could get a Bortaks Bone Staff for example and new I d get 80 to 90k for it, dont know about now. This is not a dependable game to make money on there are hotspots and those can go cold pretty quick. Hotspots get nerfed after some time. Making money in this game is about being an "oppruntunist"

I bet in a few months crystalline swords are gonna be sold for 9-15k

It varies with the item, the ease of it to farm, its drop rate, everything. There is no natural cycle an item in Guild Was is guranteed to follow, there are too many other variables. Faction Greens have dropped extremely low, less than 20% their starting selling value because hey can be soloed quite easily and thus, it is very difficult to sell them for much. Builds and such being discovered can change the price dramatically as well.

Unless the Crystalline is about 7-12 damage, I really doubt it.

As with Prophecies, people have stopped farming those greens because in most cases, factions greens are far superior to Prophecies and have nicer skins to boot. With the exception of Victos Bulwark (which has an equal value to its Factions counterparts) Malinons, bortaks set, and a few others, prophecies greens are for the most part near worthless. A more accurate cycle in my impression is not that long nor that complicated. Its essentially:

1) Prices are very high in the beginning of their availability. Old green green items from other campaigns become more obscure and drop considerably.

2) The items become to be more easily acquired with knowledge being spread around on how to do so.

3) They become common and the prices drop and stay that way unless useful in a new build or something. (Just look at what happened to Bortaks aftert tthe surge in popularity of minion masters.)

I can't see prices rising once people stop farming particular items, just look at the majority of the tyrian greens, many only sell for 1-15k.

there have been a million and a half threads on the GW economy, please search for one of the older ones...you wont have to look far.