Why ANet cannot keep this up

Allright, I'm thinking logically here. Here's the math:

If ANet keep going at their current rate:
Prophecies: 6 professions, 30 profession combinations (6 x 5), 75 skills/profession
Factions: 8 professions, 56 profession combinations (8 x 7), 100 skills/profession
Nightfall: 10 professions, 90 profession combinations (10 x 9), 125 skills/profession
Campaign 4 (Spring 2007): 12 professions, 121 profession combinations, 150 skills/profession
Campaign 5 (Fall 2007): 14 professions, 182 profession combinations, 175 skills/profession
...
Campaign 10 (Spring 2010): 24 professions, 552 profession combinations, 300 skills/profession
...
Campaign 100 (Spring 2055): 204 professions, 41,412 profession combinations, 2550 skills/profession. j/k, j/k.

Okay so I'm not saying there will be 100 campaigns. But I think you can see where I'm going here. If you have bought every single campaign, like I know most people here on Guru will, imagine trying to choose from a hundred possibilities on what professions to make your character. Imagine trying to acquire over 300 skills (both professions), capping like 100 elites, with ANet's new idea of no skill quests at all! And that's just in campaign 4! The way ANet is going, even Campaign 10 doesn't seem that far off.

Here's my point:
How can ANet simply keep adding campaigns without
a) losing diversity and becoming repetitive - skills, items, everything will start to seem identical to old stuff. Already tons of skills are just repeats. Most item skins are worthless. The more different "rare" skins they add, the more the market is divided.

b) losing Class specialisation - just how many classes can you have that truly offer something different to a party? There can only be so many unique support chars, and only so many unique melee chars. There are only 8 slots in a party - we are never going to be able to take one of everything anyway. Classes are going to end up being underused. It will be like Mesmers in PvE (i mean how often do you see a Me spamming "LFG" and how often do you see a wammo spamming "tank LFG"), or perhaps even worse because that was just with one campaign.

c) losing Storyline - the storyline for Prophecies was reasonably good. Factions was a bit boring, but allright. Nightfall looks good. But how many games can you have where some dude(Lich,Shiro,Varesh) is trying to unleash a terrible evil on the world before people get bored?

d) Skimping on low-level PvE
Tutorial areas -
Pre-searing: about 45 quests (not including basic profession trainers), no real missions, average level when leaving: 6. However, party limit isn't eight till the Southern Shiverpeaks!!!
Shing Jea island: about 30 real quests, rest are just "Talk to ..." or "Track down " that simply exist to give you XP, two ridiculously easy missions, average level when leaving: 15, party limit is eight immediately after you leave.
Istan: about 75 real quests, three missions, average level when leaving: 15, party limit is eight immediately after you leave. I will reserve judgement till I see how long the rest of the game is.
Ascension -
Prophecies: after 17/25 missions, 5 different environments (Ascalon/Shiverpeaks/Kryta/Maguuma/Desert), a huge amount of gameplay (days and days if not months).
Factions: after 3/13 missions, 2 different environments, hardly any gameplay (couple of hours?), some people are still not even lvl 20.
In Prophecies your level gradually increases, most people are not level 20 till ascension.That's seventeen solid missions. In Factions you ascend and most likely will already be lvl 20 in the fourth mission, and the first two hardly were a challenge!
I'm not saying that Factions was "bad" - enough discussion about that - there is a very clear reason for this. To entertain experienced players coming in from other campaigns, there must be sufficient level 20 content. Factions is 90% lvl 20 stuff. Prophecies is only 50% lvl 20 stuff (people coming in by ship enter at Lion's Arch!). The amount of lvl 20 gameplay in Factions was increased compared to Prophecies, at the cost of the lower level gameplay and the length of the overall game.
Of course there has to be enough high-level stuff. But if they do this by skimping on the under lvl 20 content, what's the point? The whole learning experience is gone. For example in Factions people have such trouble with Vizunah Square, Nahpui Quarter, etc. This is because completely new players, log in, make a new character (omfg how cool an assassin now i can tele out of healing range and tank!), and with a few quests and missions are lvl 20 and thrust into the "real world" without any real experience. Of course the experienced players get frustrated, but they dont realise the reason it's like that is because ANet has to cater to them.

e) Splitting their player base - most people will be playing the new campaign, obviously. What will end up happening is 50% of the GW player base is playing nighfall, 25% is playing factions, and 25% is playing prophecies. For now its still playable. But with 5 campaigns, each with dozens of towns, to choose from, how many people will you have in the remote places? Even when there was only Prophecies, places like Ice Tooth Cave and Maguuma Stade were empty. With so many campaigns, it may eventually be hard to find a PUG even in mission locations. The Ring of Fire islands missions are mostly empty even now. Yes, new people will join, but the bulk will still be from previous campaigns.

I can think of only one solution to all this - instead of making all campaigns linked, make different "sets" of campaigns. What I mean is Prophecies, Factions, Nightfall are all linked to each other, but the next campaign will not be - it will be like another Prophecies, with a high amount of low level content. It will have its own completely different storyline. The core proffessions would be the same, of course. Then the next two campaigns will be linked to that, making another set of three campaigns just like Prophecies, Factions, and Nightfall. Then another "set" of three is produced and so on. This would eliminate most of the above problems as each campaign is only linked to two others, not 7 or 8. This could be organized by saying the storyline of each "set" takes place on a different world, not just a different continent, so they cannot be linked. Of couse the idea of three campaigns is just a random number, it could be 2, or 4. I don't think more than 5 would work though. That was ANet could still be making like 20 campaigns without the above ill effects.

I've tried explaining this to some people, their response is "ZOMG ALL CAMPAINS HAFF TO BE LINKED SO I CAN HAFF A CHAR WITH 1337 SK1LLS!!1!" Don't be like that, please.
Well if anyone actually reads everything in this monster post, congratulations! What are your opinions/ideas? Is there some magic solution?

Wouldn't the population of GW increase overtime though? Well, I guess it does decrease as well due to people quitting. I don't know. I guess Anet will keep making expansions until nobody buys them.

They've already stated, for example, that not every chapter will come with new classes of characters. This is good, imo... I could see maybe two more over time and that being plenty to last a good many chapters.

I would like to point out, the population is not the greatest problem I think we will face. The main problem is even the geniuses at ANet cannot possibly come up with completely new content, classes, skills, etc. forever - they will end up recycling stuff and we will end up with a ridiculous number of near-identical professions, repeat skills, etc especially if they have to make sure they are balanced with older skills - already Nightfall skills look a heckuvalot better than other campaigns... If the campaigns are not linked, then some of the stuff can be the same without it being bad.

A lot of rehashed stuff here--all of this has been said before. Whether it's true or not is entirely opinion, mind you.

Low-level content is worthless anyway. I can't wait until they do away with levels entirely.

as much as i love GW i have a serious feeling it wont be out for another 5 years lol. not many online games last that long. hell i dont see WoW lasting 5 more years... im not saying we wont see GW2 or something of that sort but i have a feeling it will be much different than the first time. people change and computers change. the games will change as well.

I tend to agree mostly, but I resent that you think memsers can't play PvE... see anyone else soloing mursaat or Shiroken? Memsers have huge potential for solo farming...

What else can Anet offer us though? Besides new skills, weapons, and classes, all we have left to want is content... Unless they start charging a monthly fee, they have to keep making games and selling them, whatever way they can.

Well set out thread.

GW is a fantasy game and there is only so much you can do in a fantasy MMO before it just like every other MMO on the market. Shelf life maybe 1 more year then interest while die out and Anet will replace GW with a new game.

EVE has no real rival yet maybe they will head in that direction next...

you make a lot of good points there.
the whole thing over new storylines about all of the bad guys is that nightfall is gunna be the last one in anets little trilogy they are about to make. they are going to tie up all the loose ends in nightfall. 4th campain is gunna start up something totaly new.
for the population, not such a big problem. in the first days of nightfall there will be a ton of ppl over there, but after about 2 months it should be balanced out again guildwars has the same fate as all mmos, its gunna die out someday. and when that happens i think that mostly everybody would have had enough to satisfy.
then we get guild wars 2

Who the hell wants to hang out in Maguuma Stade? :S

Well... From what they said this is the thirdpart of a Trilogy coming out.
Who said that after GWN they won't come with Guild Wars 2 or a totally new one?
Personally i think 10 professions is a lot already. so that's my best guess.

I hope they won't
I so need to renew my account

They will eventually will have to make a campaign on when our own Heros return home or if they don't link them camps 1 to 3 could get new content if other player don't want to buy the new camps 4 on.This of course you will have to buy the new content and it could be done now to keep some activity in Tyria and Cantha.I don't see to many in missions in Cantha in like areas of Kurzick lands.

lol that's a good place to do trades.

That will be a grown up Gwen.

I imagine most people realize that GW won't be around forever, but I'm like most people in that I don't care. It's here NOW and I'm having fun.

Of course GW won't keep adding professions. They will add content and skills. They'll revamp graphics as graphics technology improves. I'm pretty sure there will be a crisis or emergency in Tyria that will give new Tyrian content. etc.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

Why? If youre already as strong as you can be, itd get boring pretty fast. Youd have to have ALOT of different mobs to make up for the lack of variety you can get from mobs of different levels. Its an RPG, which implies character development. My favorite part of the game is getting new/better abilities at each lvl, and figuring out how to best use them. Stagnation leads to death.

It looks a hell of alot better than Ice Tooth!

Wow, very nice thread!

About the last paragraph of point d, I preferred leveling up fast in factions. After a couple chars you just want to be level 20 as soon as possible!

Too many people think inside the box about RPGs. RPGs do not need levels to survive and it doesn't make them stagnate. We used to call those kinds of gamers in DnD Power Gamers, who played by the stats not the story. They'd make the best character they could by the stats. RPG to many people is about the story and the plotline accomplishments throughout. In the case of MMOs it has the possibility of being about exploration and freedom as well. There are also a few MMOs that have used attribute/skill progression (UO) instead of levels. Levels are really only needed for the players that have to have numbers in their game. There's nothing wrong with that, as I've played with and ran games for many of them. If that's the case then there are far better MMOs for those types of people where either they have large level caps (60-70) or unlimited level caps. I've ran and played in diceless/numberless games before where its really about the story and your immersion in the story that have been great. GW is an in-between I believe. I, too, would be happy without levels, but I don't seem them going there any more than I see the level cap being raised for the other side. I do, however, like the Factions rate of progression (though not its lack of content). You're really not playing the game until you get to the ascended-level content as wthey call it anyway. There's no point in wasting so much of the game learning.

As far as Vizunah Square being difficult, I know many Tyrian protectors that still had a lot of trouble with that one when it was first played, and still sometimes have trouble getting Master on it. It's just a difficult (due to the two-team mechanism) mission.

Again on stagnation, there have been games with enormous amounts range in stats used within the game that have gone stagnant because then it becomes about configuring numbers and not playing a role. If you want numbers and levels, then here's a link you should check out :-)

http://www.progressquest.com/info.php

a) as Factions was touted as stand-alone, they had to duplicate some skills, otherwise you would HAVE to buy Prophecies.

b) ANet does not intend to add new professions with every new chapter. And you have obviously never played a well-built mesmer. We usually hench most quests and missions through choice. We don't need to spam for groups because as soon as you show up in town/outpost you receive multiple invites.

c) How many books and movies are out there with similar storyline; people love it.

d) ANet gave the customers what they were demanding in forums; faster leveling. Now in Nightfall, they've tryed to merge both types.

e) If you have one campaign and buy a new chapter, you will still go back to older chapters for elite capping etc. with your new characters. If you are new to the game with Nightfall, you will most likely buy at least one of the previous campaigns. Not being able to link new chapters to your existing ones would lose customers. Players LIKE being able to bring their lvl20s to the new areas. They don't want to HAVE to start all over and build a duplicate toon and buy all the vanity stuff again.

As to the forecast by others of GW getting dumped for GW2; why? ANet keeps updating GW. I didn't buy it until March 2006, but if you ask players who have had the game from beginning, they will tell you how it's a whole new game just in the one year. IMO, GW servers will keep going until ANet is no longer showing a profit on the game. If it comes to the point where they would need to start charging a fee for access, they will close it down and come out with a new game.

It's common sense that Guild Wars will not last forever. Games grow old, and companies move on to newer and better things. I'd be surprised if Guild Wars hit 10 chapters, 6-8 sounds about right to me.

As people have already mentioned, they don't have to add new professions every campaign, and ANet's said they won't guarantee that they'll do so. 8-10 non-core professions sounds like a reasonable cap to me, after that it might be bordering on the "information overload" situation some people have predicted.

Some of the points the OP made don't make a lot of sense- he points out the fact that Factions has less of some things then Prophecies, and goes on to say that these things will continue to deteriorate in quantity/quality over time. Two campaigns is hardly enough to predict a trend, even if we knew how Nightfall fit in I'd be hesitant about jumping to conclusions.

As for splitting the player base, many people already have this problem- those who play in a region with a small player population like Japan, those who play on non-peak hours for their region, and those who just don't like playing with other people. I think heroes are meant to help out with this- with three fully customizable uber-henchmen at your command, human groups aren't required for as many areas. Already you can hench any location in Prophecies, and with heroes I'm willing to bet that a skilled player will be able to get Masters on any Factions mission without any humans.