Value of CCS, Spiked, and other items today, tommorrow and 1 week.

fabiola

fabiola

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jun 2006

I really thought wintersday was great! That is all.

Neo Nugget

Neo Nugget

Site Contributor

Join Date: Jan 2006

R/

im not sure if im going to use my ccs for the finale if they arent neccessary. if so ill just go get a few more cc weps.

seems like a pretty accurate price range.

Alleji

Alleji

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

You can't really estimate these prices accurately, but one thing you have to keep in mind is the nature of the effect.

How much would you pay to erase your DP? Apparently the majority's answer is "no more than 1k", because the orginal candycanes never topped that benchmark. Regardless of the supply, if people aren't willing to pay more for the effect, wintergreen candycanes probably won't go over 500g, ever.

Unless these rainbow canes will have a ridiculous effect, such as "insta-kill target monster" they won't go too high either, regardless of rarity.

Same can be said about spiked eggnog... it's equivalent of 3 beers for the drunkard title, plus convenience factor of being able to simply zone to get your minutes. 3 beers cost 600g + convenience, whatever that is worth to you. A reasonable cap would be 700-750g per eggnog.

Njaiguni Blaze

Njaiguni Blaze

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: May 2006

The Netherlands

The Biggyverse [PLEB]

Me/

:/
Oh, must be more than 12 characters long.

floppinghog

floppinghog

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Oct 2005

pit of brimstone

Squad Six Six Six [ssss]

A/Me

alleji has the Idea.

Sonya of Red

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Nov 2005

W/Mo

There are other things that need to be factored in aside from the perceived value or the market for these various items. For example, if it turns out the rainbow candy canes can be gotten by trading for ccs then there will be a huge influx of those into the economy thus lowering their value. On the other hand, if they can only be obtained through quests or participation in some event then there will be much less of them around and their value will be more.

The problem with trying to predict prices is that the supply of these items is not stipulated by a free market economy. They are introduced into the economy by A-net who is not influenced by the economy at all. They could easily (though this is doubtful) decide to give every player 500 of these items thus the demand for any of these items will be small. Perhaps they will introduce a new collector in the market who will give similar items all year long... Again since you cannot predict A-net actions it is really impossible to predict the items future values.

ReVel4tion

ReVel4tion

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Mar 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonya of Red
There are other things that need to be factored in aside from the perceived value or the market for these various items. For example, if it turns out the rainbow candy canes can be gotten by trading for ccs then there will be a huge influx of those into the economy thus lowering their value. On the other hand, if they can only be obtained through quests or participation in some event then there will be much less of them around and their value will be more.

The problem with trying to predict prices is that the supply of these items is not stipulated by a free market economy. They are introduced into the economy by A-net who is not influenced by the economy at all. They could easily (though this is doubtful) decide to give every player 500 of these items thus the demand for any of these items will be small. Perhaps they will introduce a new collector in the market who will give similar items all year long... Again since you cannot predict A-net actions it is really impossible to predict the items future values.
but i guess the reason the OP made this thread in the first place is to speculate . It's sorta why the lore forum exists anyway, no one knows for sure the history behind guild wars but they do it anyway. That being said, anything in life is unpredictable so just applying the principle that no one knows what Anet will do for this one concept is moot point. In either case, i just hope no one hedges all their bets on some random claim that might pop out from this thread

Sonya of Red

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Nov 2005

W/Mo

Quote:
Originally Posted by ReVel4tion
but i guess the reason the OP made this thread in the first place is to speculate . It's sorta why the lore forum exists anyway, no one knows for sure the history behind guild wars but they do it anyway. That being said, anything in life is unpredictable so just applying the principle that no one knows what Anet will do for this one concept is moot point. In either case, i just hope no one hedges all their bets on some random claim that might pop out from this thread
See the problem here is that this is a very different sort of animal then the usual Guild Wars economy. With the usual economy you actaully can make certain predictions with some amount of accurancy because the items in circulation have been around for some time. If for example the OP had, instead of predicting winter items futures values, instead predicted dye futures or rune futures his predictions, assuming they were based on previous historic trens, would have some validity. But the problem with the winter items is their presense in the game is short lived (at least the abilty to acquire them from drops or other game mechanic means). Also there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to their future. Thus the OP is essentially assuming that his vision of the economy will see fruition.

Consider this, a certain company offers to sell stocks in their product. They have been in business for only a short period of time. They also announce that within the next few days they are going to radically change their product (which A-net is doing with the winterday's event). Unless you are an extremely risk orientiented individual you would probably invest in this company with extreme caution - because you would have absolutely no idea what the future would bring - essentially you are gambling. So to it is with winter items. The OP is making certain assumptions in his calculations. For example he is assuming the cc shards will have little use tomorrow and thus they will be next to useless. He may be absolutely correct in his predictions but not necessarily.

While I do believe the OP was just trying to give people a heads up and not have them taken advantage of the fact is his advice could encourage others to dump certain items or invest in others based on his vision of the economy which may more may not be correct. It would be easy enough for me to say that tomorrow the prices of candy canes (pepermint and wintergreen) will decrease by 33% due to the emergence of rainbow candy canes. While I may be correct in my guess it certainly nothing more than advice.

Malice Black

Site Legend

Join Date: Oct 2005

Lol go back to playing Monopoly. Invest in eggnogs lol thats sound business advice..not.

Malice Black

Site Legend

Join Date: Oct 2005

Waste of time. Even if you bought at 150g and sold at 300g you'd have to buy and sell thousands to make anything decent out of it.

Malice Black

Site Legend

Join Date: Oct 2005

667k for months of spamming WTS eggnog...pass anyone with any common sense would do so also.

Teger

Teger

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2006

LLJK

A/Mo

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Admins Bane
667k for months of spamming WTS eggnog...pass anyone with any common sense would do so also.
well, if you buy that much eggnog, at least you can get maxed ale hound on all your chars...and most of your friends too, but with shards....you can spell words in FoW?

Malice Black

Site Legend

Join Date: Oct 2005

Heh if Kurts gamble worked he would of had those sold in a week or so and would have doubled his money and then some..thats proper profit within a reasonable time frame.

Chris Blackstar

Banned

Join Date: Apr 2005

United States

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Admins Bane
Heh if Kurts gamble worked he would of had those sold in a week or so and would have doubled his money and then some..thats proper profit within a reasonable time frame.
Kurt has to be a kid in real life, that would explain his miscaculation with cc shards as any person with any amount of inteligence knows that such an investment was fool hardy at best given past experence with this game.

Kurt would have made more money if he took the suggestion and invested in spiked eggnog, or other items that are useful after the event ends. The people at Anet are not morons, even know the make bad decisions sometimes, they know there are players like Kurt who horde items, so do you really think they would be that stupid to do what Kurt expected.

Maybe he will get lucky and they will take pity on him, or maybe they are reading this and laughing their asses off.

Sonya of Red

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Nov 2005

W/Mo

Or, Kurt just realized that this is a game and thought to make it more exciting for himself by taking a big risk. Gambling is not a science but for some it is a lot of fun.


By the way Fabiola sorry for the gender confusion in my post. When I don't know someone's gender I for some reason assume male.

Alleji

Alleji

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

So... rainbow CCs are junk.

Sonya of Red

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Nov 2005

W/Mo

As you can see, based on todays events and the introduction of CC shard collectors it really can be very tough to predict values of items, especially seasonal items. Though I am happy that I gambled and won ( I had almost 5k ccs shards and now I have a heck of a lot of presents). Of course there really was no way to predict this outcome and I could just as easiy be sitting on a pile of worthless ccs. That is why giving out advice as if it is fact is a problem. It is really hard to guess what Anet will do next and people who follow someone else advice because they consider it fact can easily loose a lot. I have to wonder, how many people dumped thier ccs influenced on this thread and other thread like it. Again, I still think the op's intentions were good but they were really nothing more than a guess.