Edit 2: For those too lazy to read, an abstract: Guild Wars is dying! A restrictive business model is to blame. Micropayments are the way out - but there have been no developments on this front for quite a while. A little help for anet, maybe?
A few people may know of #gwp, a Guild Wars dedicated IRC channel on the GameSurge network, which is pretty much the scourge of the internet, completely filled with idiots. However, in any given day, you can probably count on a few recurring 'serious' discussions to come up. There's the obligatory "WoW is better than GW, because Vanquisher said so" discussion, or the "such and such skill is unbalanced discussion", and the "Guild Wars is dying" one is an oldie but a goodie. One that used to come up in the past, the "Guild Wars business model" discussion, doesn't occur so often anymore. This may be due, in part, to the fact that the Guild Wars business model is generally accepted as bad. There are some positives, but these positives are countered by a whole host of negatives that result in a big fat poop face. (>_<)
Long story short, Guild Wars as a game is in fairly dire straits. They're not in financial trouble to the best of my knowledge, but in GWP there's been a great movement of players towards WoW - and these are the top PvP players, moving to a game infamous for grind. Too many fun seasons and too few skill balances for a totally out-of-whack metagame is a big reason why this is happening, as is the backlash against 6v6 in HA. However, there are other reasons as to why:
1) Expansions: Guild Wars and its expansions are standalone - but for the PvP community, this doesn't hold true. All skills are balanced against all other skills across expansions, so with Nightfall there was a good deal of power creep in which Prophecies-only players found themselves on the very short end of things. As more expansions come out, and with a staff that doesn't really grow, certain areas of Guild Wars will fall into disrepair. This isn't speculation - there have been rumblings on GWP that certain people working on the project would like for the release schedule to not be every 6 months, a schedule resulting directly from Arena.Net's business model.
How does this affect PvE players? Not so drastically, but while the game itself is standalone, the community is not. Areas in older campaigns become ghost towns, it becomes increasingly less MMO and more 'you, yourself and Alesia'. Obviously Arena Net can't dictate where its community goes, but it stands to reason that the less diluted the community, the better.
And affecting all players is that certain builds are undeniably more effective than others, whether PvP or PvE. Some of these builds may be campaign specific, but more likely than not they're cross-campaign. New players will find it harder and harder to break into the game, and if they choose to, the cost is substantial - in fact, it equates to paying for every month since the initial release of Guild Wars, something much more than in other MMOs.
2) Game updates and staff: Arena Net's staff is fairly stagnant - their teams alternate chapters, and then others work on updates for existing games. However, as the list of 'old' games expands, the resources of the company are stretched thinner and thinner. Hiring is the logical out - but in this regard the business model is a hindrance - you're hiring people for games that no longer make money.
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The running joke is that Guild Wars will be dead before Nightfall finishes its set of balances. But while this is merely exaggeration by some drama queens (Beo), it's not difficult to see that Guild Wars has a somewhat limited future. It's the proud owner of a PvP community that is stacked against growing, and it's the proud owner of a marketing campaign that seems centered around emphasizing the merits of its skill-based PvP over other grind-based games. And almost all of these problems are the byproduct of a poor business model.
There is an out, however, and it got a lot of forum coverage a few months ago, when Guild Wars first announced it - micropayments. Micropayments is a term used to define everything that players pay real money for in game, not crucial to the game. We got PvP unlock packs, character slots, and then, it seemed that Arena Net ran out of ideas. After all the hubbub about people quitting if arena net offered exclusive items or what not, all is quiet on the micropayment front.
But why?
Micropayments are the way for Guild Wars to break the stranglehold of its business model. Provided that these 'other things' are successful and people buy them, Arena Net can move back its expansion schedule, it can afford to fully staff to update its old games, it can afford to fully staff to create more complete games at release, and it can finally create more Sorrow's Furnace type updates. The devil, of course, is in the details.
As a game that prides itself on skill over time spent (a running joke in itself up until a few weeks ago), what is offered through micropayments obviously becomes very important. Doing it Maple Story style and just offering anything and everything for cold hard cash would be a good way to further alienate an already alienated community. So with my essay coming to close - what are some reasonable micropayment items? Keep in mind - the tenet of the game (skill over time spent) must hold. And related to this, exclusive skins seem to be a no-no - after all, vanity items are a big part of PvE.
I've got a few suggestions to start it off:
1) Name changes: Name changes are something often requested, something never fulfilled. Gaile has written that to offer them for free would lose them money due to the time required. Name change your character for $1, $2?
2) Expanded friends list: Something I've often wanted, as I sadly delete old names off to make room for new names. People often joke that Guild Wars is just a glorified chat client, but even in that regard it fails, with a limit of 50 friends. I'd pay to expand this, if server space and bandwidth is the problem.
3) UI Presets: Being able to customize UIs for each resolution, or have different UIs (and key bindings) set for different professions would be great.
And a few suggestions that may or may not fit within this topic, but should be mentioned nonetheless:
1) Custom guild titles - leader, officer, member. Most other MMOs have more guild tiers, and in EVE, for example, you can create custom 'divisions' that have different privileges. As it is, the 'guild' concept in Guild Wars is rather weak.
2) Old interfaces - Guild Wars has undergone a few UI changes, but all of them have been forced on the players. Being able to pick old decorations would be great.
Edit: Edited out some stuff left over from a draft.
R
