Green Drop Probability in Cantha

I've never had the farming code message actually show up... So then what?

And for that matter, does it start to become less probable the more times you kill the boss even if you don't get the green?

Over the last 3x drop weekend, I had to kill The Scar Eater thirteen times before he dropped his green even once.

it is random. if the farming code comes on it pretty much just nullifies any chance of a green dropping. so you either have a random chance/no chance at all

Did a little check this weekend as I was helping people with missions..if I did a mission or 2 and then went to kill Sskai, I got the sword usually on 1st or second run, never more than 3 runs to get it, then did another 2-3 missions and did again...got 4 swords in 7 attempts. Not going to get rich having to do missions in between but my advice when you are dong missions is after a coupe go try for that boss that you have not been able to get his green and he might just drop it

Got the ScarEater three times in a row. Went for the WingMender green 20 times and nothing. I tell you man, it's random. I mix up all my farming with missions and quests as well.

Firstly I'd like to note that computer algorhythms are incapable of "complete randomness", if such a concept even exists. Its like rolling a D6 (common dice)... Which number you get is theoretically random, but there is a 1/6 chance of getting any particular number... such as a six. If you switch over to a D20, the odds of getting any particular number become much lower (1/20 in fact).
There IS a statistical probability of a green drop given certain yet unknown conditions... but I'm guessing that if folks aren't willing to make records and test it to death, that it'll just remain a mystery and people will keep waving the flag of ignorance (with the words "Completely Random" on it).

I on the other hand intend to work out those conditions where possible and figure out the optimal means of getting Greens.... besides merely flagging my heroes and henchies away. I need Rajazan's Fervor for one thing...


Then there is the matter of Jayne Forestlight and her (his?) two greens... both of which are awesome and on my wanted list... yet allegedly Vera is rarer than the staff. Curious.

But where do you draw the line? Do you roll those dice a thousand times a day for a hundred years? Or do you roll them ten times for one day? Not hackin on you or anything, and I'll keep giving you any info on green drops I get, but I still firmly believe it's random.

Good luck with figuring out those conditions. (And I don't know about the Vera stuff yet, but if you need a set of Shreader's Talons I've got about 20 of em. LOL)

KANE

I have a set of Shreader's Talons. My need for them was so low that I gave them to Zenmai and promptly stopped using her (as I'd decided to level up Acolyte Sousuke and kit him out in such a way as complemented Olias's minion hoarde). I mean I did use them for a while.... but to say they're crap is an understatement. They don't even have the same pretty purple colour as Tahkayun's Pincers (a Shing Jea green drop)...

On the flipside, if you'd like to purchase Lou's Karambits or Xuekao's Daggers... I can sell either to you for a reasonable price. I have one spare Lou's Karambits and three spare Xuekao's Daggers.

3 Xuekao, I farm him more then 100 time and he drop shit on me.
I have trouble with drop rate. I have beeen farming several Bosses on Cantha so many time in pass 2 weeks. none of them drop a green except Shreader himself spare me one set of pincer.

is it me out of luck or the farming code really screw me up? I didn't repeatedly farm the same boss but they never drop green for me. I am 100% solo and PWN them without hench , hero not a partner

Quote:

I believe the anti farm code looks both at the character and the location.

WHat I mean is that it follows both how many time you exhibit farming behavior and how many times that area is entered and farmed. I say that because I got Ssakai's sword easily the first time I farmed and nothing on the green Cantha weekend. I have also farmed and gotten some greens in Elona and then farmed in Cantha right after that and got nothing. During the Cantha green event I also farmed arborstone...I got two stone reapers ans 1 Zarna's wrath.

I have yet to get the stone reaper...I have run that about 50 times.

You can have a random chance to drop and still have the results be totally random...

For example, lets say that the green drops has a 1 in 20 chance to drop...unless it is every 20 kills, you have variation. THe example would be rolling a 20 sided die...everytime you roll it, you get 5% chance to get any number, but in 20 rolls, you are not Guaranteed to get a 1. in 20 rolls you can get twenty 1's or you can get zero...and every combination in between. But since 1 in 20 is the most common number quoted, let's go with that.

you have a 5% chance to get a green drop each time you kill a boss, unitl you hit 6 tries, then the anti-farming code kicks in. That 5% does not change...It does not increase as you try.

Now in a group, you have a 1 in x chance to get the green based on the number of people so if there are two people, you have a 50% chance to get the green and a 5% chance it will drop or a grant total of a 2.5% chance

people chance
1 5%
2 2.5%
3 1.66%
4 1.25%
5 1%
6 0.07%
7 0.07%
8 0.06%

What's funny about this thread, is I was in Maatu keep during the tripple drop weekend and people were bitching about the daggers that are right out side there. They were saying "it should drop like 1 in 4 times, I don't understand why I've gone 20 and not had a drop".

All I know is that when I used to farm Exuro's will, I went through a stretch when I got 5 out of 8 runs, then the next day got 3 out of 10. Then later went 10-15 with zero. It's just like playing roulette in vegas, just because the last spin was red, the next one doesn't have a better chance of being black. It's called mutually exclusive events.

Now I agree that software is programmed so there can not be complete randomness, but they are so close to random I don't think there is any way to "predict" the drop rate of a green anymore than you could predict whether if you rolled a 20 die you could expect a 6 on the next roll. I have to believe that the algorhythm that determines what a boss will drop is determined when the instance is loaded which is mutually exclusive of the last time you loaded the instance (even without taking a "farming code" into account).

Sure, you could track hundreds of farming events for a boss and determine, on average, the drop rate is 1/15, however, except for informational purposes, this will not help you in any way as far as farming that green goes. (other than maybe helping you determine where you have the best chance of getting a green, even though it will not guarantee success)

well i am not an avid green farmer, although starting to do more... but i have all 3 games and ive never gotten any green drops in tyria (beaten tyria with all 4 starting characters), have 2 factions characters and 2 nightfall characters, but all my green drops (about 5-10) have been with a full party of henchies, or with like 3 or more guildies, i got seacrashes influence, on my 1st try with my ele and 7 henchies, while trying to skill cap, another one while trying to skill cap wanderlust on my 1st try was quansongs focus with my ritualistand 3 guildies and the rest henchies, something about cantha is going on here, why does arena net only make those green drop weekends for cantha and not nightfall or tyria, most my greens have been from cantha and most my time has been put into tyria and nightfall i blazed thru cantha and couldnt care less about it....so I dont know the ryhme or reson to green drops. I think the best thing is to get 8 human players and rotate who gets the green drop, cause one player might get 3 and someone else gets none. Last story is this,,, my guildmate goes IDS farming like 10-20 times, gets NONE!...I go with him once and get a IDS 1st time, we then take another guildy so there is just 3 of us and then that guy gets a IDS 1st time, so who knows, i just play and have fun and let the items come when they come....

I think the reason Anet doesn't make a green drop weekend in Prophecies is because almost all of the greens are in SF, and they've been farmed to death already. 25 districts in Deldrimor ftl.

KANE

its completely random, a while ago i managed to farm 3 woe spreaders in 1 day, and now ive not had one since

Not all greens are in SF And some of the Tyrian greens aren't very easy to farm, like that Rotwing Recurve Bow.

What's the farming code? Hasn't happened to me yet, and I did a fair bit of boss farming, altough I alternate them...

Chris