Afk gamblers can't add up?

Probably been threads on this before (hmm, that's the opening line of every thread I've ever made), but notice how the middle ring in 9 Rings still has a majority of about 60-70% of all the people there?

Surely with this being the third event of this kind, the community might have read the wiki article and possibly told each other to stand in the corner? Guess not. Seems a pointless thing to worry about but in such huge numbers that's a lot of people throwing cash away with minimal efficiency.

Question: why do you care?

This is a microcosm of the same reason why no one PUGs --- the average player cannot be expected to and almost never will play in a way that is even a little bit wise; even when it comes to AFK games.

I think my second paragraph summed that up, it's like watching half the population buy chocolate teapots.

All circles win the same amount, just corners help the unlucky title better.

Corners are prone to long losing streaks, so the centre may be a more viable option for those on a limited budget or small inventories.
That said, most people seem to be there because it "wins more". Meh.

1/2 way to Golden =) Yay for Gold sinks!

It depends on what you're aiming for. It doesn't matter where you stand for the lucky title. The pay-out (number of tokens won), over the long term, is equal no matter where you stand. You win more often by standing in the center circle, but the pay out is less. Standing on the corners will cause you to lose more (helps for the unlucky title), but when you're circle is the winning circle, you are given a larger pay-out.

Center wins 20, edge wins 40, and corners win 55.

Well you really shouldnt be surprised that some of the general population is ignorant of most things. Just look at how in every event there will aways be a dozen people at a given time spamming stuff like, "Wut do tokens do?!!" or "Wen duz teh pumpking king come?!!" over and over again instead of actually going to the GW site or talking to NPCS to find out themselves.

But why would you purposely avoid getting 2 titles, instead paying the same amount of money for just one?

Maybe some of us don't have a lot of faith in Anet's RNG?

Also the guild wiki article (http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Luck_titles_guide) is shoddy; it's based on assumptions that aren't proven (namely the above assumption - RNG is accurate) and without actual comparisons of corners vs center vs sides and without ANY in game data. It's not an "analysis" of any sort, just one chart examining corners, and then a bunch of charts showing how much money you need for each level of each title. There's no math, no in game data, no logic, nothing - I'm not sure why you expect people to blindly follow that article. The article basically says this, without backup of any sort: "all locations are equally advantageous so here is an analysis of what you get standing on the corner." Yay?

edit: And yes, I can do high school probability too and I still prefer experimental evidence as opposed to blindly following the "analysis" presented. That being said, this is what I had as my results standing in the corner (and I'm redoing this in a bit to take in time, exact numbers and other locations too

485 tickets lost (~an hr, didn't account for time) on the corner, 2600 (10409 to 13189) lucky points gained, 281 losses gained. Now this is 5.36 lucky points per ticket and 0.58 losses per ticket; this is far different than the calculated win rate on the guild wiki article. Sure, you can argue that this is a string of bad luck lasting for an hour +, but to me this points to some statistically non randomness, even without working out the likelihood/p-values to test whether this result is out of the ordinary with current assumptions.

Meanwhile in the center (I've only started taking down notes): ~20minutes, 35 tickets lost total, 2100 lucky points (exactly, 13189->15289) and 89 unlucky losses earned. Sure ok, a bad streak on the corner and a lucky streak in the center you say? Fine, I'll take more data points down and keep counting, and then compare again.

But those quick looks to me show that if you don't want to be throwing out money nilly willy you should be doing 9 Rings for the lucky title, and the other one for the unlucky title, and standing in the center. But if you want the fastest time to both titles and have too much money, sure, stand in the corner at 9 Rings.

(And I didn't bother writing down exact numbers, but I am doing so, and with be doing a t-test to test the RNG, and calculating exactly how many games I played, etc. - if I get bored enough... I guess 8)).

Statistically, they should all earn the same amount of tickets. The difference is that if you stand in the corner ring, you'll also earn credits towards the unlucky title while still earning the same amount as the center. With the center ring, you will lose the least amount of times. This is, of course, with statistics and the average over a long period of time will look closer and closer to this.

With these numbers (go ahead and check them, maybe I made a mistake), it just makes more sense to stand in a corner ring as you'll earn the most amount of tickets while losing the most amount of games therefore making the best progress possible for both titles.

Corner:
1/9: 55 tickets won
2/9: 15 tickets won
6/9: 0 tickets won
Over 900 attempts:
You will receive 55 tickets 100 times: 5500 tickets
You will receive 15 tickets 200 times: 3000 tickets
You will receive 0 tickets 600 times: 0 tickets
Total:
8500 tickets earned
600 games lost

Side:
1/9: 40 tickets won
3/9: 15 tickets won
5/9: 0 tickets won
Over 900 attempts:
You will receive 40 tickets 100 times: 4000 tickets
You will receive 15 tickets 300 times: 4500 tickets
You will receive 0 tickets 500 times: 0 tickets
Total:
8500 tickets earned
500 games lost

Center:
1/9: 25 tickets won
4/9: 15 tickets won
4/9: 0 tickets won
Over 900 attempts:
You will receive 25 tickets 100 times: 2500 tickets
You will receive 15 tickets 400 times: 6000 tickets
You will receive 0 tickets 400 times: 0 tickets
Total:
8500 tickets earned
400 games lost

and some of us do. or at least enough faith to go with probability over small sample size, in game observations. do i know that their RNG is extremely accurate? no. do i have any reason to believe that is so bad as to completely destroy the odds for staying in the corner spot. no. until otherwise noted, why go against the probability?

So far this festival, I spent 6 hours in the same corner ring and right now have 10 more tickets than I started with. While this shows a string of good luck, it certainly doesn't mean the trend will continue.

EDIT: Actually, this is a bit of a problem. Right now, I have 82,093 tickets won (3/5 to next level) and 6,397 games lost (1/5 to next level). I'll need to go play 16 rings for a while to even out those bars!

EDIT2: 20 min later I'm down 270 tix! This all feels so, um, random?

short answer. because people fail at math. or they thing that by getting a higher winning chance (5/9) they get more tickets, and don't actually bother to experiment.

these are the same people who will cause party wipes. the people who don't really have a clue what they are doing, the kind of people that will bring mending everywhere. and healing breeze on a warrior

I don't like the wiki article. I don't understand the bottom bit, where it gives details as to cost and time of each level of both titles together. I don't understand the totals (I will probably feel very stupid after someone explains it, but ahh well). Does it mean it's most benficial to do that much on nine rings and then switch to the other to get the rest of the title? (I found a guide on Guru from the dragon festival that is a lot better at explaining everything)

Anyway, I made up my own mind about it. I've stood on an edge for the last 6 hours while at work, thinking that you win a decent amount, but lose just over half each time. And now my lucky title is twice as far ahead as my unlucky one. So I'm switching to the corner ones.

Pretty pointless post, but if someone could explain what the wiki thing means without making me feel like a complete dolt, that would be fantastic. (I haven't had to use my brain for the past 3 months, alright? I'll feel smarter once I go back to uni next week)

Yeah thanks! That surely accounts for my post *thumbs up* - because you know, I read and question the wiki article (since it is incomplete and well I'm a scientist and demand proof to make sure everything's working correctly in game too - god forbid! other variables existing), so I fail at math and don't bother to experiment ^^

Re: Meat Axe

All the wiki says for 90% of it is how much money and time you need to get to a certain tier for the title, if you stand in the corner. The wiki isn't well written and I don't particularly want to add to it, but here goes with the explaining why they assume all locations are even:

Location | Tickets per win | Tickets from nearby wins |

Center | 25 | 15+15+15+15
Side | 40 | 15+15+15
Corner | 55 | 15+15

So with 9 locations being hit randomly, all locations have the probability of (85 tickets)/9.

So you win the same tickets, standing anywhere, assuming random probability (and imo ~300 games should skew it to pretty random - but it seems to require more like ~3000 games).

Just because I won't accept math as a reason to do something (and require more solid evidence, esp in the case of, oh, buggy games) doesn't mean I don't understand it....

(And my "corner" data was from the western corner, by the banners, which also has fewest people - who's to say all corners are equal ;P)

-----
edit: Ahhh nm

yes, but the tickets won is rather low. if all you want is the unlucky title, then yes, the fortune game is for you.
actually you would lose the same number of tickets per nine rounds that the middle circle loses. by probability, you should win 85 tickets each set, while spending 90, no matter the circle. same number of tickets, just more losses on the corners, which is what you want for the unlucky title.
again, you are not saving money (85 tickets won, 90 loss). the number of tickets won is the same, you just have fewer losses, which isnt good if you want the unlucky title.
which is exactly what people want to do. it takes weeks of afk farming to max out these titles, while we are usually stuck to playing only 3 days every couple of months. of course ppl want it done fast.

I guess they're just not very bright.

Eh ^^ I have time, tbh, but your post is right, and I need sleep obviously (as the length of my post indicates, insomnia...)

/me wonders again why Anet put these titles in; they're pure grind.

scyfer, I think you'd find that your reason for not standing in the corner is actually quite unique.

For the vast majority of middle-standers, they are there not because they doubt the RNG, but rather they are there simply for the reasons myself and The Ernada and Viruzzz pointed out.

As opposed to Drunkard, sugar rush, Defender of Ascalon, Cartographer, Sunspear, Lightbringer, and Faction?

Well, at least Lightbringer gives a bonus.

eh, i dont mind the grind titles so much. give those who want grind something to work for, without disrupting the game play for those that dont.

How are these titles considered "grind?" All you do is stand AFK. There's no effort so can't be considered grind. Grind is when you're actually putting in the effort doing something over and over again.

Not grind, gold sink, just like drunkard and sweet tooth.

[offtopic]These titles are gold sinks, and imo a Gold Sink is a good thing with so much gold coming into the economy [/offtopic]

Now on topic, I lost somewhere in the area of 500-750 tickets standing on the corner. After losing so many tickets I moved to the center, now I stay steadily with 1 stack (plenty backups, though). I think it is a matter of personal preference, the title you are going for, or your budget (personally, I don't have a problem with my budget, but I would prefer to get 10-50 or so less Unlucky points per hour [my own research] than lose a bunch of gold).

It's a grind to get enough gold to be able to go AFK for these titles. Max titles cost ~1 million or something like that, and there's no legit way to get that much gold without massive grind.

That said, almost all of the other titles are also grind-based in a similar way.

OK 24th I'll go to the protest and laugh at the protesters. You just gave me something to spend my day doing. Thank you!

honestly. for any kind of calculation you have to assume the chances for each ring are equal. i don't think anyone has the time or manpower to fully test the chances, you would need to have multiple people in multiple districts over a long period of time to be able to say anything about biased chances, and even then it could just be coincidence.

so when assuming all chances are equal all the rings get the same amount of tickets won, and the corners lose more often, the math has been done 100's of times, so i wont bother doing it again.

basically by standing in the middle ring you forfeit the potential losses and the unlucky title along with it. there is no point in it.

some people might say that the lucky title has a positive influence on your character, I've heard some people say that, and *if* that is true then the middle one is better, but there is nothing to suggest that the luck titles have any influence on anything.

If you want the luck title exclusively, then go ahead and stand in the middle or side ring, but personally if i can advance 2 titles rather than 1 at the same pace for the first title and for the same cost then i am using that chance.

On first event, I won tickets at one point (so, 5000 to 7500). On the next event, I lost around 5000 in a matter of hours.

Gambling (apart from being a sin) is a dangerous thing. But all these numbers are irrelevant. A single person can't prove anything here. Just get the win/loss ratio (exact ones, not "yea, around 50,000 tickets" type of answers) and work it out from there.

I bet 15 festival tickets that the numbers are random.

Since wins and losses are larger in the corner, so is variation. 500-750 tickets is not something to make a conclusion on. Lose 5000-20,000 tickets. Then, divide that by the time it took you to do so. Compare that number to wiki. It'll be close.

In middle circle, you win/lose smaller ammounts, so it seems less. But it's the same, just the streaks are shorter.

Well, I've been working in the gambling industry for nearly a decade, so I guess I must be pretty steeped in sin :P

/ontopic

The other difference between corner and centre not noted much here is the difference in variation.

Given that the highest win is available in the corner with a one in nine chance, and the lowest with a two in nine chance, the variation in upkeep cost to stay on the rings is greater, though the mean upkeep cost is the same.

For example, over a sample of 9 chances (for convienience's sake) a corner can expect (on average) to get 3 wins for a total loss of 5 tickets. The centre (on average) can expect to get 5 wins for a total loss again of 5 tickets. So, a run of bad luck affects the corner, with only 3 wins to sacrifice, worse than the centre with five. A run of good luck affects the corner better than the centre.

In short, if you can't stand the 4000 tickets or so needed to outweigh the upkeep variable at the beginning of your time on the rings, and can only afford a few hundred, or a few dozen, the centre will keep you playing longer. This can seem an attractive option if you're just playing for the fun of it, and not for the titles themselves...

The center doesn't give you a longer playing time. they all have equal returns, the 9-ring takes 90 tickets each round and rewards 85 back if you have one player standing on each ring.

if you want to play longer, then do the rings of fortune, much more playing time for the same amount of tickets.

the 9-rings should only be used by people who want luck points at a faster pace.

I don't think you understood my point; while what you say is true with a large enough sample size to produce a consistant mean return, it doesn't stand true that you will return 85 for every 90 you spend. Over shorter periods, you will experience runs of good luck and bad luck, and with a small number of original tickets, the centre will keep you in play longer due to the lower variable value of the upkeep rate.

faith is right on this one. if you could extend the sample out toward infinity, then the 85 won/90 loss number should hold true. but over shorter durations, with runs of good and bad luck, the lower variation with the center circle should hold to be better (if not better, than a longer duration of play).

but with ppl going afk for up to 3 days with a high volume of tickets in their possession, the corners should be the way to go.

Well, even though the samples are not perfect, I can make a little bit of a projection upon my experience. Yesterday I logged on at 2:30, bought 8 stacks of tickets and finally ran out of tickets at 9:10. So I lost about 200 tickets an hour standing in the middle circle. After I found this thread while I was waiting for the fan in my computer to kick off after running Guild Wars for so long, I decided to try the corner square. I bought 10 stacks today so that I could afk for several hours and not worry about running out, and 3 hours later I am up 400 tickets. Even though this isnt as good of a sample size as the 6 hours and 40 minutes yesterday, I think that the higher rewards of the corners are some how a better deal in the medium run I have going right now if you can afford a good amount of stacks to not run out during an unlucky streak.

Edit: 6 hours in and I am up 700 tickets and I'm in the same corner as I started. So even though the math says differently, you seem to gain tickets when standing in a corner and loose tickets standing in the middle.

Second Edit: Since the new build of Guild Wars I've been steadily loosing tickets, so it seems that whatever advantage that was had by being in the corner is gone and is now equal in loosing tickets like the center one was.

The center ring is for those on a budget...

The conrners are for the high rollers.

And the Rings of Fortune are for poor people in general.

I can only say: lol @ this thread!

If you like the middle ring better, go ahead, stand there!
I know though that i will have both titles maxed faster than you guys, lol!

The corners, while being the optimal time/money solution, rely on having a big intiial float as tehre is a much higher chance that you'll go on a bad run wiping you out of the game.

you'll have the unlucky title maxed sooner, where you stand doesn't affect your lucky title, since the winnings are statistically the same

Bingo.....

As pointed out many times, the expected loss is the same for all circles. The variance is the smallest for the center circle, leading to a much smaller chance of ruin before earning any arbitrary number of tokens.

You will eventually run out of money no matter which circle you pick, but it will more likely, happen sooner in the corners than any other circle.