My three oldest characters, what did they get?
For their first birthday they got jade armors, now for their second, they got windriders.
Yes, all three of them.
Now people will say "hey, it's a gift, don't complain", and I have to say, that's true, but you can tell me what you want. It still shows that there is something really bad coded. I'd bet that's the same reason why the "simulated luck" in gw just boils down to streaks.
Lockpicks? broke all, except for one evening, where six in a row did not break (17% chance to not break).
Chests? An evening just purple ones? Yeahyeah...just "bad luck"
Weird drop distribution?
Monster drops?
(...)
Anyone else experienced this? Or is just my account cursed and to be deleted?
Birthdaypresents and a crappy "randomnumbergenerator"?
Myrkwid
Kas
Imho the random generator is downright broken but balances itself over the course of time.
vixro
3 presents, 3 whiptails. what happened to random?
Odinius
well 3 bone dragons and 3 mini gwen's would make my day 
but I can imagine you being exited about what's it gonna be, same same same....boring.
but I can imagine you being exited about what's it gonna be, same same same....boring.
Arduin
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Originally Posted by Kas
Imho the random generator is downright broken but balances itself over the course of time.
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All B-day pets were whites for me (got about 7 of them) so I should be getting a lot of Gwen's hopefully.
nugzta
I got 5 siege turtles
Myrkwid
Well, I tend to be a bit aggressive without my morningcoffee 
I'm not complaining about getting windriders because they are white. In fact I basically can't complain about that. I rarely use minis, I don't buy/sell them and I vastly preffer creatures over npcs. What I'm complaining about is the randomness, or more the lack of it.
Getting just jades, whiptails or windriders is kind of boring and not fun.
Also I want to point out the main reason for the complaint:
I guess they did not code an extra routine to determine what mini you get. If the same random generator is used to determine all other "random" things in gw, that might be the reason why people experience weird streakes. Like my example with the lockpicks above. Or unequal lootdistribution. Or it might be the reason why some say "hard mode is like paradise, rares everywhere" and others say "Duh? What? I don't even get gold".
Something is definately broken with it, as the number of streakes I encountered in this game can't be explained with pure "luck/ bad luck" anymore and at least some others have experienced it too.
It sometimes feels like the algorithm is using the account name and the current date as input value
I'm not complaining about getting windriders because they are white. In fact I basically can't complain about that. I rarely use minis, I don't buy/sell them and I vastly preffer creatures over npcs. What I'm complaining about is the randomness, or more the lack of it.
Getting just jades, whiptails or windriders is kind of boring and not fun.
Also I want to point out the main reason for the complaint:
I guess they did not code an extra routine to determine what mini you get. If the same random generator is used to determine all other "random" things in gw, that might be the reason why people experience weird streakes. Like my example with the lockpicks above. Or unequal lootdistribution. Or it might be the reason why some say "hard mode is like paradise, rares everywhere" and others say "Duh? What? I don't even get gold".
Something is definately broken with it, as the number of streakes I encountered in this game can't be explained with pure "luck/ bad luck" anymore and at least some others have experienced it too.
It sometimes feels like the algorithm is using the account name and the current date as input value
makosi
I recieved 3 Fungal Wallows on my main account and a Charr Shaman on my abandonded secondary account.
I know it's a conspiracy theory but I believe its related to farming flags in some way.
I know it's a conspiracy theory but I believe its related to farming flags in some way.
BlueNovember
If I toss a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, it does not mean the coin is biased. Same applies to not breaking 6 lockpicks or getting the same 2 minipets twice over.
Conversely, if I tossed a coin 100 times and got 100 heads the coin is certainly biased. Same applies if you had got ~20 lockpicks retained in a row. Granted, retaining 6 consecutive lockpicks is ~0.002% chance, but with hundreds of thousands of people using lockpicks all over the place... perhaps there's some dependance there? Either that or you got quite lucky.
You never said how many lockpicks you broke, but with a 83% chance to break each one, you are expecting to lose quite a few.
Conversely, if I tossed a coin 100 times and got 100 heads the coin is certainly biased. Same applies if you had got ~20 lockpicks retained in a row. Granted, retaining 6 consecutive lockpicks is ~0.002% chance, but with hundreds of thousands of people using lockpicks all over the place... perhaps there's some dependance there? Either that or you got quite lucky.
You never said how many lockpicks you broke, but with a 83% chance to break each one, you are expecting to lose quite a few.
Big Suprise
i got 2x turtle too =( same acc.
bamm bamm bamm
For a start, random number algorithms are so close to random as to make no difference, including the probably standard and widely used one that Anet uses, but if you can write a better one without advocating a new PCIe card that measures background radiation, go ahead.
Secondly, your anecdotal evidence means not only less than nothing, but you seem to not understand that 'random' includes the events you describe. The whole point of 'random' and not 'fairly distributed' is so unlikely scenarios can happen. If you only want the mean outcome for everyone, complain about using random distribution at all, not the quality of the algorithm. You might have actually had a point.
Thirdly, do you think that people who got different pets come to this website and say 'Hey guys, I got different pets! I just signed up to say great work on that Random Number Generator, Anet! A+++." But because 20 people are going to post here saying they aren't on the trend line, you are going to have your ill-informed opinion reinforced. come back with 20,000 experiences and we'll have a look.
I blame Izzy. I heard he wrote a custom random number generator that only favors people who aren't me. Fire him.
Secondly, your anecdotal evidence means not only less than nothing, but you seem to not understand that 'random' includes the events you describe. The whole point of 'random' and not 'fairly distributed' is so unlikely scenarios can happen. If you only want the mean outcome for everyone, complain about using random distribution at all, not the quality of the algorithm. You might have actually had a point.
Thirdly, do you think that people who got different pets come to this website and say 'Hey guys, I got different pets! I just signed up to say great work on that Random Number Generator, Anet! A+++." But because 20 people are going to post here saying they aren't on the trend line, you are going to have your ill-informed opinion reinforced. come back with 20,000 experiences and we'll have a look.
I blame Izzy. I heard he wrote a custom random number generator that only favors people who aren't me. Fire him.
Jecht Scye
What he said^^. More specifically, this part:
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Originally Posted by bamm bamm bamm
Secondly, your anecdotal evidence means not only less than nothing, but you seem to not understand that 'random' includes the events you describe. The whole point of 'random' and not 'fairly distributed' is so unlikely scenarios can happen. If you only want the mean outcome for everyone, complain about using random distribution at all, not the quality of the algorithm. You might have actually had a point.
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william1975
Well I have had four minipets as first bthday presents so far, they have all been different and all white, I would have liked better ones but its luck, yes i have had awful streaks of bad luck with chests, i opened 14 in a row, over two maps and got all purple, but thats luck, i presume you have 50/50 chance of getting one or other, my lockpicks have not broken about a third f the time with 20% chance, i agree with the other two posts its random it sucks at times, but that happens
Yes i would hate to get all the same pet for presents, but if i did i wouldnt say it was brken, just a tremendous amount of bad luck
then i would try to swap them or sell them
Yes i would hate to get all the same pet for presents, but if i did i wouldnt say it was brken, just a tremendous amount of bad luck
then i would try to swap them or sell them
Diddy bow
mini pets seem fine but every gold i get seems to have a firey pre-fix and wardingn suffix O_o
Myrkwid
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Originally Posted by bamm bamm bamm
For a start, random number algorithms are so close to random as to make no difference, including the probably standard and widely used one that Anet uses, but if you can write a better one without advocating a new PCIe card that measures background radiation, go ahead.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bamm bamm bamm
Secondly, your anecdotal evidence means not only less than nothing, but you seem to not understand that 'random' includes the events you describe. The whole point of 'random' and not 'fairly distributed' is so unlikely scenarios can happen. If you only want the mean outcome for everyone, complain about using random distribution at all, not the quality of the algorithm. You might have actually had a point.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bamm bamm bamm
Thirdly, do you think that people who got different pets come to this website and say 'Hey guys, I got different pets! I just signed up to say great work on that Random Number Generator, Anet! A+++." But because 20 people are going to post here saying they aren't on the trend line, you are going to have your ill-informed opinion reinforced. come back with 20,000 experiences and we'll have a look.
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Lydz
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Originally Posted by makosi
I recieved 3 Fungal Wallows on my main account and a Charr Shaman on my abandonded secondary account.
I know it's a conspiracy theory but I believe its related to farming flags in some way. |
FeroxC
This link may interest you :
http://www.rohitab.com/discuss/index...howtopic=24727
Hes using the current time to seed the random number generator. and generating the numbers before the clock ticks over a millisecond resulting in repeats.
But i would hope Anets abit more experianced than to allow that kind of bug.
:http://www.rohitab.com/discuss/index...howtopic=24727
Hes using the current time to seed the random number generator. and generating the numbers before the clock ticks over a millisecond resulting in repeats.
But i would hope Anets abit more experianced than to allow that kind of bug.
Westofeden
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Originally Posted by Diddy bow
mini pets seem fine but every gold i get seems to have a firey pre-fix and wardingn suffix O_o
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Dreikki
2 temple guardians, 2 fungal wallows.
(y)
(y)
Caoimhe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueNovember
If I toss a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, it does not mean the coin is biased. Same applies to not breaking 6 lockpicks or getting the same 2 minipets twice over.
Conversely, if I tossed a coin 100 times and got 100 heads the coin is certainly biased. Same applies if you had got ~20 lockpicks retained in a row. Granted, retaining 6 consecutive lockpicks is ~0.002% chance, but with hundreds of thousands of people using lockpicks all over the place... perhaps there's some dependance there? Either that or you got quite lucky. |
Would 100 straight heads-tosses be extraordinary? Absolutely. Likely? Not very. Possible? Yup. There are more factors that should be considered before considering the exercise biased, though.
BlueNovember
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Originally Posted by Caoimhe
...Each coin toss represents an individual event, not a progression of events, so each coin toss is determined only by its toss, not by ones that precede it.
Would 100 straight heads-tosses be extraordinary? Absolutely. Likely? Not very. Possible? Yup. There are more factors that should be considered before considering the exercise biased, though. |
Mmm. Diverging from the topic a _little_ bit, but for the sake of completeness,
Probability of h heads in n tosses of a coin with a probability of heads equal to p:
(h + t + 1!) / h!t! * r^h * (1-r)^t
h=100, t=0, r=0.5, (presuming fair coin)
(100 + 1)! / 100! * 0.5^100
101 * 0.5^100,
Which, according to google, is
7.96749514 × 10-29
...which is a number so small I don't even know the si prefix for. The coin is biased. Certainty is well over 99.99%.
Edit: I've never really done probability, just have an interest in it, so any and all of these values could be wrong :P
phil_carter
i would be inclined to think that that was just a result of probability of independent events, yes its surprising that you got the same pet on 3 characters twice, but its possible and given that each one is independent not really that unlikely to happen, to see the real distribution youd need to carry out far more tests, if this happened to more than 10 of your 100 characters then yes i'd be concerned, but its still alot more likely than my hand passing through my desk, or an ice cube jumping out of my glass.
Someone else could equally claim that it is odd that they recieved different pets on every character, its just how the world works, and probably indicates a good random number generator rather than a poor one in which extremes never occur.
And no ive never understood conditional probability, but does it even apply to independent events?
Someone else could equally claim that it is odd that they recieved different pets on every character, its just how the world works, and probably indicates a good random number generator rather than a poor one in which extremes never occur.
And no ive never understood conditional probability, but does it even apply to independent events?
TRUEgamer
I have received one jungle troll and one siege turtle. No complaints here.
Refer to thisfor statistical data showing how the number system works.
Refer to thisfor statistical data showing how the number system works.
netniwk
3 char teddy bears here 
LifeInfusion
It's an algorithm. Algorithm = not entirely random.
The OP is correct that it is indeed NOT random. They may use random factors to GET random-ness, but the result in itself is not completely random.
For example, if it was based on any factor, say time, then there is a independent variable the result is based on.
Given that C++ and generally all computers operate on logic statements , we must assume it is "close to random" but not random. Moreover, if the independent variable itself cannot be controlled, it yields a better
"randomness".
If you use a random generator, even that is not random. Any result that can be entirely replicated by manipulating the independent variable is NOT random. It is dependent on an unknown variable.
That's probably why computers aren't used to do lotteries and instead ping pong ball things rolling in a sphere shown on television are used. At least it cannot be rigged. Or can it?
anyway, my suggestion is to try opening it at different times or randomize YOURSELF since it is highly likely it involves timing or what time you logged on, how much you played, or the like.
A good example is the chest drop rate. If you do the same chest over and over you will probably trigger whatever codes they have, and therefore it is a bad idea. Randomizing yourself is the way to go.
The OP is correct that it is indeed NOT random. They may use random factors to GET random-ness, but the result in itself is not completely random.
For example, if it was based on any factor, say time, then there is a independent variable the result is based on.
Given that C++ and generally all computers operate on logic statements , we must assume it is "close to random" but not random. Moreover, if the independent variable itself cannot be controlled, it yields a better
"randomness".
If you use a random generator, even that is not random. Any result that can be entirely replicated by manipulating the independent variable is NOT random. It is dependent on an unknown variable.
That's probably why computers aren't used to do lotteries and instead ping pong ball things rolling in a sphere shown on television are used. At least it cannot be rigged. Or can it?
anyway, my suggestion is to try opening it at different times or randomize YOURSELF since it is highly likely it involves timing or what time you logged on, how much you played, or the like.
A good example is the chest drop rate. If you do the same chest over and over you will probably trigger whatever codes they have, and therefore it is a bad idea. Randomizing yourself is the way to go.
bamm bamm bamm
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Originally Posted by Myrkwid
The probably standard one used by ANet, but you don't know, so this comment is worthless.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Myrkwid
Again, even the weirdest things can happen, the lottery tossing the same numbers twice in a row. But if such things happen on a frequent basis, then there is no real randomness.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Myrkwid
If a small percentage experiences a bug, do you want to tell them "there is no bug, look at the others who don't experience it! COme back with 20.000 others and we might have a look at it." And if you read it, then you might have noticed, that I'm asking if others experiencing the same. But obviously posts in a forum are subjected to fanboism.
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Thunder79
Anyone who has studied statistics knows that the statement made by the OP is a bad statement because the sample size is too small to make a good statement about the randomness of the sample.
The population is all the minis that people got as birthday presents.
Your sample is all the minis that you received on your characters.
the population is made up of hundreds of thousands of birthdays (maybe approaching or more than a million, I don't know)...
your sample is talking about a very small number...so small that you can't reach a good conclusion about the randomness of the random number generator because your sample is most likely not a representative sample for the population.
I've never gotten anything better than a purple for birthday presents...most have been white...do I care? No...it's something that's given out free...as a birthday gift. The fact that I get a gift makes me happy...because most games don't do stuff like that.
The population is all the minis that people got as birthday presents.
Your sample is all the minis that you received on your characters.
the population is made up of hundreds of thousands of birthdays (maybe approaching or more than a million, I don't know)...
your sample is talking about a very small number...so small that you can't reach a good conclusion about the randomness of the random number generator because your sample is most likely not a representative sample for the population.
I've never gotten anything better than a purple for birthday presents...most have been white...do I care? No...it's something that's given out free...as a birthday gift. The fact that I get a gift makes me happy...because most games don't do stuff like that.
XvArchonvX
I swear, every day there has to be at least 1 new thread from some Joe Blow who has a streak of bad luck and has to come here to cry about it and blame the coding of the game.
HawkofStorms
Agreed Archon. I LOVE the conspiracy theorists that come on these forums. There is nothing broken, get over it. The only reason you think it is is because only the people who think that are are posting "evidence" on this thread to support that.
VitisVinifera
wow it's not just me
both canthans on their 1st a week ago or so got jade armors
both canthans on their 1st a week ago or so got jade armors
vixro
While I agree somewhat that minipet randomness is far from good random code, retaining lock picks, salvaging, gold/purple chest drop rates, drop rate findings while farming and even coffers are all random.
I can do a chest run and get 15-20 golds in a row, while retaining a large amount of lock picks(maybe 8-10 of them with only ~ 25% chance of saving) and then 5 hours later do the same chest run and lose every lock pick and get all purples. Sometimes when I used to farm tengu in twin serpent lakes I would get as many as 6 golds within the first 2 groups I killed, sometimes I would get absolutely none in the entire run.
When I bought around 30 coffer of whispers I didn't get anything good, but everything I got was different almost every single time. I never got the same thing 3 times in a row. It may have been the same 5-6 items, but that's because I was getting the shitty stuff instead of the good stuff. That happens because of the drop rate of the better items.
Now, the problem the OP is seeing and that I see too is that this isn't the case with minipets. Sure it would be frustrating to have all white minipets, but that can happen just because the drop rate is going to be higher on the common pets over the uncommon, rare, and unique drops. What ISNT random is when you keep getting the same minipet over and over again. If you have 10 presents open side by side and you get 5 minipets of one type and then 5 of another out of a possible 15 minipets then something is seriously wrong. That is a 1 in 759,375 chance and you hit it twice. That's far from unlucky, that's just plain retarded. Although that number would mean that each minipet is considered equal, the number is still well in the hundreds of thousands in odds.
I can do a chest run and get 15-20 golds in a row, while retaining a large amount of lock picks(maybe 8-10 of them with only ~ 25% chance of saving) and then 5 hours later do the same chest run and lose every lock pick and get all purples. Sometimes when I used to farm tengu in twin serpent lakes I would get as many as 6 golds within the first 2 groups I killed, sometimes I would get absolutely none in the entire run.
When I bought around 30 coffer of whispers I didn't get anything good, but everything I got was different almost every single time. I never got the same thing 3 times in a row. It may have been the same 5-6 items, but that's because I was getting the shitty stuff instead of the good stuff. That happens because of the drop rate of the better items.
Now, the problem the OP is seeing and that I see too is that this isn't the case with minipets. Sure it would be frustrating to have all white minipets, but that can happen just because the drop rate is going to be higher on the common pets over the uncommon, rare, and unique drops. What ISNT random is when you keep getting the same minipet over and over again. If you have 10 presents open side by side and you get 5 minipets of one type and then 5 of another out of a possible 15 minipets then something is seriously wrong. That is a 1 in 759,375 chance and you hit it twice. That's far from unlucky, that's just plain retarded. Although that number would mean that each minipet is considered equal, the number is still well in the hundreds of thousands in odds.
Dragonious
Quote:
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Originally Posted by makosi
I recieved 3 Fungal Wallows on my main account and a Charr Shaman on my abandonded secondary account.
I know it's a conspiracy theory but I believe its related to farming flags in some way. |
Marth Reynolds
Quote:
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Originally Posted by XvArchonvX
I swear, every day there has to be at least 1 new thread from some Joe Blow who has a streak of bad luck and has to come here to cry about it and blame the coding of the game.
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So far speaking from my own experience i have lucky streaks or unlukcy streaks with so now and then single timed luck or bad luck.
For example using 42 locpicks in the last 18 12 didn't break, Doing chest runs with 12 golds in a row and then 24 purples in a row.
I know for sure this generator spits out more streaks then normal "(bad) luck spikes". for me at least, i can't say it's the same with other people simply because i haven't moniterd their drops .
neshim
You can always count on A.Net to create bad coding!
Neo Nugget
same account.2 horsemans.
only double of the mini's
only double of the mini's
HawkofStorms
Any person with any mathematical training will tell you...
statisitical anylsis with small, biased sample sizes can not get statisitically significant results.
statisitical anylsis with small, biased sample sizes can not get statisitically significant results.
Kool Pajamas
Ive gotten about 6 1st year birthday presents and only 1 have been double. Yay me i guess.
Midnight Harmony
I've had two first year presents so far, one being a Temple Guardian and the other a Kirin.
teenchi
An alliance member of ours just got 3 rot wallows on his 3 in the same day.
Echuu Ishtar
Something really needs to be done about the randomness of the birthday gifts. The probability of getting a rare one should increase depending on the /age of that character. It isn't really fair if somebody puts their heart and soul into a character for a year and opens up a Fungal Wallow as a gift, yet somebody with a second account that just collects bday gifts could possibly get a Bone Dragon. If they could somehow get around people that would afk to rack up hours, this method would be perfect I think.
Or better yet, take away the rarity of the pets.
Or better yet, take away the rarity of the pets.