ArenaNet Warns of Tough MMO Market

this just in earlier from arena net on Next Generaton site: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...887&Ite mid=2

heres what it has to say...

The infant MMO market is booming, but overexcitement and lack of experience will lead some investors and newer MMO developers to bust, Guild Wars developer ArenaNet tells Next-Gen.

ArenaNet co-founder and programmer Pat Wyatt says of MMO investment, “This is totally the area of ‘funny money.’ Everybody looks from the outside of the industry and says ‘Wow, there’s a lot of money to be made.’ …The challenge [for developers] is going to be to do something that’s different that makes people want to switch en masse to a game. So yeah, some people coming out who invest a lot of money are not going to get a good return. And we’re going to see a fallout in a couple years when these games reach fruition.”

ArenaNet co-founder and programmer Jeff Strain elaborates, “Even within the industry, what many game developers who have never made an MMO don’t realize is that an MMO is not a product. It’s a service. That’s where they often get tripped up—things like the cool game features they have or the technology they’d like to have.

“But successful MMOs, or successful online games in general, are successful because the development team comprehends and understands that ultimately what they’re making is a service.”

At last count, the NCsoft-published Guild Wars franchise had sold over 3 million copies across its three, full-priced standalone campaign packs. As opposed to a monthly subscription, ArenaNet has relied on releasing a new campaign pack every six months, although the upcoming expansion Eye of the North will be the first follow-up to require a previous version of Guild Wars.

The Bellevue, Wash.-based ArenaNet also recently announced Guild Wars 2, a full-blown sequel with beta testing beginning some time in 2008.

Wyatt's and Strain’s comments were made during a recent interview with ArenaNet’s co-founders regarding the Guild Wars business. The interview will be published in the coming days.

Pretty cool article, thanks for the post.

Infant MMO market? Were they serious?

If infant MMO's game like WoW can have 6 millions buyers, I'd really like to see the "puberty" or "mature".

Meh.. I personally see Better MMO's coming in the future, I don't find any current MMOs Anywhere near appealing to me, except guild wars. So i'd play guild wars or nothing at all.. so i guess in my eyes its infant, or whatever. I believe guild wars two will be a success if its not to much like the first one.

I'm with you thar. I can't stress how many I've known who left after they found out the level cap was only 20...

Infant-like in terms of advancement, not population. There's tons of improvements that can be made to MMO's in general, and it's not just about upgrading the technology, or seeing who can score the highest population game-base.

Yet the level cap is the only reason I'm staying with guild wars, because it means I'm not forced to grind in order to play the end game content. Though the LB title makes this point moot. Basically when someone tries to get me into a new MMO I ask one question first: What features does that MMO have that most others don't ?

For guild wars its the low amounts of grind to max out your characters stats (though each chapter seems to add more grind).

The population measurement is especially bad when most MMO's measure the population as the number of active accounts, despite them being on separate shards and therefore unable to interact with each other. Or the free to play MMO's inactive accounts in the total population size.

That's of course assuming that there's little to nothing to do between the first and max level - which is assuming a lot.

That's pretty odd that they make such a statement. Is it publicity or is it because they have an ace up their sleeve?

Who knows...

You will probably get some heat for that one, but I agree with you. The current form of GW translated 100% directly into GW2 as is would be a lot of wasted time and energy. GW2 gives them a chance to do over and do it much better.

THe current improvement of technology leaves to openings of VAST new markets for MMORPGs ie:

Smartphones with internet access....

Ever since Arenanet released Guild Wars 1 they have had nothing but success with their game and I don't see any reason why they won't continue to be successful. These guys are experienced and know what they are talking about and doing.

I think GW2 is a smart move and they will broaden their user/fan base as well.
I see nothing but good things for GW players in the future.

MMOs are a service...? This could be acknowledging that they know how unhappy some people have been of late, and are trying to fix that.
And yeah, GW2 needs to be different from GW1. Maybe not incredibly different, but there are definately some things I would like to see changed.

If GW2 is nothing like the first one what would be the point of it then, might as well play WoW then.

Oh boy! Way to think outside the box. Obviously, if GW2 is going to be different than GW1, the only other game it can be compared to is WoW, since GW and WoW are the only two games that ever was and ever will be. Yeesh.

Seriously though, GW as it is, is pretty much an FPS, but with customization of characters, a decent story, and lots of loot. The creators simply want to take the more RPG side of GW, and improve upon that. I see nothing wrong with that, nor is it like WoW other than the fact that WoW is also an RPG. Whoop-de-friggin-do.

I do hope I'll remember this quote and shove it in Gaile's face the next time we bitch about something and she pulls the "We do everything out of the kindness of our heart and if you're gonna bitch about it we might as well stop providing it!"-card out of her sleeve!

Before you try to insult her, please be aware that she said in the past already that this whole thing is a form of "Service". But the actual service stops at providing you servers to play on. Any extras (events, activities, festivities, tournaments, etc etc) are NOT part of it. And Anet can STOP doing those without breaking any agreement with you.

Whether you guys like it or not, Cacheelma's got a point. To those people who demand changes/fixes/shit: You've already paid for the game. You cannot have any influence over ANet's way of things. If they do something you don't like, then you will have to live with it - it's their game, not yours. It's not your standard pay-to-play MMO, and because of that you are not entitled to anything except playing the game. If there was a monthly playing fee, things would probably be different as ANet would have to work more to satisfy your spending of $15 a month. But there isn't a fee - hence, ANet doesn't have to do anything to make you happy. If they wanted to they could've just never released any additional content, because you've already bought their game, they've sold their product, their done. As long as their game is working on your computer, you don't have much of a right to complain.

Well whether you like it or not, changes are actually necessary because GW in itself is very restrictive and at times stagnant, plus I did pay for the game, and if Anet decisions to appeal to the customer, I can simply stop paying for it in the future, as well as many other players can as well.

Arcane. think about it for a second. If it really is not much like the first game, plus the big fact that all of your things collected (armor,weapons, etc.) can not be transfered, why start something when WoW is already established. In reality, you'd be starting from scratch anyway.

the point was that they are aware it is a service.
meaning - the quality of the service should be of such level that users continue to use it. and if the users express the feeling that the service provided is failing to reach that level - it might be smarter to look at the service rather then to pull the "you either like it or you won't get any more"-card that the lovely Gaile pulls out in her most embarrassing outings.

ohh and lets not go to the whole "they don't need to provide the extras"! lets just look at the ugly truth.
if they had known that the game has enough content to keep the players happy and willing to buy the next chapter - they wouldn't need to bring out the extras! my guess is that they KNOW that the extras are needed to keep the user base interested even if the users cant demand them!
surely you know that they didn't add the extra content out of the kindness of their heart?
and knowing that - what's wrong with exercising a bit of pressure?
it's a service - not a charity nor a friendship.

Well replace WoW with EQ or whatever then.

I just meant if GW2 was very different than GW then it wouldn't really be a "2". Same as if it was exactly the same it wouldn't be a "2" either.

Obviously it will be different but it shouldn't stray too much from the original concept, and personally I like what I've heard about GW2 so far.

I just didn't agree with the (blanket) statement that it should be rather different.

GW 1 is fine, It wasn't meant to be a negative comment, I was just simply saying that if it is a clone of guild wars 1 then people might not find it to appealing since, i think.. most of the community is ready for a new fresh change, which GW2 will grant i believe. I'm sure guild wars 2 will have most of the important guild wars 1 attributes which is good.

But theres a HUGE difference between customer with a reasonable demand "exercising a bit of pressure", vs a whiny prick who wants everything here and now (not to infer that you are one or the other..in case anyone accuses me of flaming -.-).

If you go to a restaurant and your waiter doesnt come by when you need a glass of water, theres nothing wrong with reminding them about your needs.

But just because its a service industry doesnt mean you treat them like shit, they can only do so much.

Customers with no manners such as "Please" and "Thank You" and "Excuse me". Ive seen customers who just keep harassing the waiter for their food. Come on, its RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOing friday night, what do you expect?

----------------

I used to know a guy back in college, he was a real charmer. He usually annoys waiters. He does it for fun, and plays around with them, usually asking for free stuff, like coffee or something. The waiters have a difficult time with him, since he's really friendly and a charmer, its hard to say no to him. In the end he makes it worth their while since he's a very generous tipper, and whatever they bought him, he'd have covered it in the tip already.

My point being, the waiters had to go way out of their way to please him. But he made it worth it.

Anet is already bending to our will. They listen to us in terms of improving the game like no other videogame company i've ever seen in my 20+ years of gaming. So much so that they are downright RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOs (this is a joke if you cant tell).

I tell some people to stop making stupid suggestions because Anet takes all of it seriously. Then when the consequences happen, they blame it all squarely on Anet.

You wanna know why HA went to 6v6? Because some people complained that making parties for 8v8 took too long.
You wanna know why HA went back to 8v8? Because some people complained that 6v6 sucked (which it did, imo).
You wanna know why we have loot scaling? Because some people hate bots and they complained that Anet isnt doing anything.
You wanna know why some people are getting accidentally banned? Because some people hate bots and demand Anet ban more bots.
and so on and so forth.

Yes. I know that this is an oversimplification of the matter at hand.

And yes, Anet is at fault too for listening to stupid ideas that are obviously stupid in the first place.

They are doing it to make someone, whos bitching somewhere, about the game, happy.

In the long run all these changes, all these improvements. Everything we bitch about. Its all because we bitched in the first place about something.

Not to say bitching about something is bad in the first place. Because otherwise, how do you improve the game?

The point is, if youre bitching about something or you have an idea for improvement/addition to the game, be aware that Anet takes everything seriously.

Make your complaints/ideas/improvements be heard, knowing full and well the possible outcome of that if such idea is implemented, you'll only get more complaints and unhappy fellow customers as a final inevitability.

You do understand with the type of game guild wars is they kind of need to do it.

Plz, be consistent with a position lyra

"Obviously stupid" is something I'm sure Anet would risk with their product, and don't say 6vs6 is one of these ideas, because it isn't.

So it is the time to make Guild Wars of Worldcraft...

Yes. But not many companies have bent to player will like Anet has to the point where even stupid ideas get listened to.

I bitch. You bitch. We all bitch. Some people bitch about good things. Some people bitch about stupid things. Some people bitch for the good of the game. Some people bitch for the good of themselves.

My point is consistent.

Thats the point.

Quit taking it out of context.

----------

No. Some ideas were/are obviously stupid. Some are good ideas with just poor adoption. Some are good ideas with poor implementation. Some are bad ideas with good adoption/good implementation.

Which ideas are which is open to debate.

So how long do we have to complain before they fix some of the long lasting graphic problems?

Of course changes are necessary in a game like this, without a doubt. What're you trying to say?

No way does it say you can't. If you don't like the way it's going, stop playing. Don't think that you (the player) can have a large say in what they do change, though. That's the gist of my point.

you are a user.
and the whining nagging little prick is also a user.

all the whining is addressed towards A.net and not you.
and its a.nets call if they will listen to it or not.

all you can do - as a user - is to support causes you feel worthy or refrain from giving support to those that aren't.
but its definitely not your place to judge ANY "request".
hence - your whining little prick comment is completely unnecessary.

action house was taken seriously?
so you're telling me that after careful consideration they decided that the hat storage dude was a bigger necessity for the game then an auction house?
or doing something about afk-ing?

and please - do not ever dare suggest that players are accidentally getting banned BECAUSE of other players!
A.net is doing the banning! and they don't do enough research! THAT'S WHY PLAYERS ARE GETTING FALSELY ACCUSED AND BANNED and NOT because of other players! ONCE we'll have access to the "ban"-button then that silly little lie might not be so silly little anymore! NOR a bloody lie!

It's been discussed elsewhere that an Auction House may not be able to be implemented with Guild Wars' current build i.e. engine. Why they did not implement it in the first place, I do not know.

They're getting banned because of bots, not people. This is one of ANet's lose-lose situations: They can either ignore the bots, banning only occasionally, and people will complain. Or they can increase bot bans drastically, with only a few accidental bans on the side, and still have people complaining.

I'm trying to rebuttal to your point lol, that Anet can think this is their game but they are actually providing a service, and cannot by any means run a dictatorship.

Not me individually, but a large group of the playerbase yes.

That theory is being put to the test right now. They have a new SR implementation on the way. Hopefully, in a few days, we will know if they are responsive - as you say.

Thanks!
TabascoSauce

Not to mention Starcraft 2 in few years and GW might face tougher competitions everywhere. Not just the MMORPG genre but FPS (can't wait for Half Life 2: Episode 2) RTS (Starcraft 2) and all the titles in between. Also peoples getting fed up with the ways their being treated and not being able to do certain things on GW anymore.

For me personally, I got a PS3 and Nintendo Wii to keep me happy if somehow GW went out like the dinosaurs!

How do you know this is true? I've seen them asking for opinions, but never seen them declare that they're changing how SR works again.

If I'm wrong on this, please point it out.

MMOs are in their infancy in relation to the rest of the computer games market. I have been playing computer games for 28 years and gw for a little over a year...They were just stating that its a new way to make games adn market.

Ah, and looking back at my previous mainpoint, I seemed to have written it in a matter which, looking back, I do not like.

ANet must change their game, yes. Change is practically inevitable. However, the player has to respect the changes that Anet makes to its game, whether they like it or not (as I said before).

As for the service reference: as far as I can understand, the only service that they are providing is that you can play their game.

Like Tobasco has said, we'll see how that goes. The Shaman class has been completely gimped in WoW for a very long time now, and Blizzard - despite huge uproars from a large number of players - hasn't done a thing to fix it.


I actually probably wouldn't buy it if it wasn't much different, but that's just me.

@MSecorsky, hopefully without derailing this thread:

posted at timestamp 05-27-2007, 01:59 PM, page 133 of 141 in the Soul Reaping Changes Discussion + Poll thread.

They have not stated what the change(s) are exactly, in case you were curious. As I have said numerous times in that thread, the delay that others berate or mock speaks to me that a serious debate is going on, unfortunately one side is a bunch of mathematically challenged bean-counters that I wonder if they play the game.

Thanks!
TabascoSauce

Ah, missed that! Thanks much for the info!

That's what others said in this thread too but someone is always offended by something.

Sorry im derailing the thread a little but...ill get back on topic, i promise. ^_^v

If someone's idea, is imo, stupid, i will voice my opinion that it is, indeed, stupid.

I'm no authority on the game, but i call it when i see it, and i dont see the point to holding back. My opinion about someone else's whining is still my opinion.

It concerns me when Anet has to waste important time on stupid ideas when we as a community can point out the stupid ones easily.

If you dont like my opinions, use the ignore feature on the forum. Click "User CP". Then click "Buddy / Ignore List " on the bottom left. Then type my name. Easy and convenient.

Well firstly, just because something isnt implemented doesnt mean it wasnt taken seriously. Second, Anet has made their official response to the auction house. Deal with it.

I can guarantee you this however, if it makes you feel better.

If Anet implemented an auctionhouse into GW, someone will bitch about it and then blame Anet squarely, as if Anet was out to get them and ruin their life intentionally.

You wanna buy a strawman

or a clue?


Actually even though that wasnt the point of my post, I'll bite. Maybe you forgot this part of my post.

The bot farming / mistaken ban problem is very complex situation.

Answer me this: Who buys gold thats been farmed by botters?

Thats right. Your fellow players.

It is not incorrect to say, that the mistaken bans of players for botting, are in fact caused by other player's actions.

My point was that pressure from players to increase action against bots by increasing bannings can be correlated with the increased number of misbans because of the increased number of bans altogether.

Anet is at fault for directly banning players. Yes. I never denied that.
What im saying is, what are some of the driving forces behind those bannings?

Players of course. The want and need to please the population. To prove to us that they give a damn about our bitching about the bots.

Bryant is right though. Its a lose-lose situation.

============================

I want to return to a point i mentioned earlier about smartphones.

Todays smartphones are reaching the point of usability that laptops are becoming useless for the business professional. It wont take a stretch for smartphones to become the next great gaming platform for MMORPGs.

Not talking about 3d or super complex ones of course, but 2d ones could easily work. Theres already cellphone based games with multiplayer networking.

So ya, heres to hoping.