So, I take it Anet's screwing with the laws of supply and demand?

Darmikau

Darmikau

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2006

Pun Goes [Here]

P/W

I mean, you know somethings up when ever since the favor update every region and every player of Guild Wars has non-stop access to the Underworld and Fissure of Woe and yet ecto prices at the trader haven't dropped a cent. In fact, they may have just now dropped to 4.9k at the trader, which I doubt will last for long considering the last time it dropped to 4.9k it went back up within a day. Are people just not selling to traders or is Anet keeping our Obsidian armor expensive?

LumpOfCole

LumpOfCole

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jul 2006

Orlando, FL

Rt/

Prices on ecto aren't going to plummet just people people can go to the FoW and UW at more convenient times. It's going to be a long, steady decline, if that.

Darmikau

Darmikau

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2006

Pun Goes [Here]

P/W

I know it won't happen all at once, but we should have at least seen a small drop by now, don't you think?

countesscorpula

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Nov 2006

Gwen Is [EVIL]

N/

I for one never sell ecto to the material trader NPC. It's just bad business. You can almost always find someone else who will buy them for more than what the trader will pay. And if the prices are too low in the general market, I have a storage vault that can store 250 of them with no skin off my nose. Maybe people are just hording them at the moment, hoping for a price increase. Just a thought.

Navaros

Forge Runner

Join Date: Apr 2005

Mo/Me

I don't think Anet is doing anything with the law of supply and demand. I think the drop in price that might have come was offset by a boost in price caused by the duped Ectos that were suddenly deleted out of the game.

LifeInfusion

LifeInfusion

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

in the midline

E/Mo

There is a steady supply, but no added demand... since there are no new classes.

Another thing is the favor being international, which means it is more likely people will just work for them (a good thing in my opinion).

HawkofStorms

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

Also, it is rumored (though not confirmed and this may sound kinda conspiracy theorist, but it makes sense) that the duping glitch had been know for a while by a small group of people. Apparently the glitch existed for months but only came to light when people started doing it with Armbraces and drawing suspicions. As such, it may be possible that the ecto price plummeted so much due to the duping of them.

I'm not sure how much truth there is too that. But it could have been another contributing factor to the ecto crash.

Shadowspawn X

Shadowspawn X

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jun 2005

Fellowship of Champions

R/E

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darmikau
I know it won't happen all at once, but we should have at least seen a small drop by now, don't you think?
No, America used to have favor day and night for at least a year. It didn't drive the price of ecto down at all. Plus all the Euros were on American servers so it was the same as now. The price of ecto is down because Anet has cracked down on ebayers that was the main people buying ecto in mass from the trader driving up prices. Normal players won't pay 6.0 - 5.5k to get an ecto from trader when they can get one for 5k from another player. Also conversely, a player won't sell an ecto to the trader for 4.0k when he can get 5.0k from another player.The ecto price is frozen because no one uses the trader. Favor has nothing to do with it. Ecto is very stable now at 5k imo.

bilateralrope

bilateralrope

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

New Zealand

Xen Of Onslaught (Xen of the Pacific division)

Quote:
Originally Posted by LifeInfusion
There is a steady supply
Are we sure that ANET hasn't played with the drop rate ?

Also remember that when we have the no-favor FoW/UW access weekend, ecto and shard prices spiked upawards because of the number of people who, being in the less popular regions (like Japan), were taking advantage of the weekend to go get FoW armor because it was the only time they could reliably get access.

Then there is the possibility of ectos being oversupplied due to duping.

Ghost Recon

Ghost Recon

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2005

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
Also, it is rumored (though not confirmed and this may sound kinda conspiracy theorist, but it makes sense) that the duping glitch had been know for a while by a small group of people. Apparently the glitch existed for months but only came to light when people started doing it with Armbraces and drawing suspicions. As such, it may be possible that the ecto price plummeted so much due to the duping of them.

I'm not sure how much truth there is too that. But it could have been another contributing factor to the ecto crash.
Possible but i doubt it why would someone dupe an ecto, when they can dupe an armbrace? Ecto has been declining ever since Factions, everyone who wants fissure has it. Everyone else understands it is a total money sink and the fact that it doesn't even look that great put everyone off it.


People use to buy it because it was a symbol of status now everyone has it and no one cares.

cyberjanet

cyberjanet

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2007

The Netherlands

Rich Mahogany

N/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowspawn X
Normal players won't pay 6.0 - 5.5k to get an ecto from trader when they can get one for 5k from another player. Also conversely, a player won't sell an ecto to the trader for 4.0k when he can get 5.0k from another player.The ecto price is frozen because no one uses the trader. Favor has nothing to do with it. Ecto is very stable now at 5k imo.
OK, so I'm an abnormal player.

I'm not going to hang around putting up with the spam in local and trade channels (and yes, there is spam in trade channels too) wasting my time trying to buy and sell things. I'd rather be playing. I use the traders for buying and selling ALL rare materials and other tradeable stuff. I merch the rest, golds included.

So please don't say no one uses the trader. I do. And I really don't care that I'm not as rich or as l33t as the people who spend hours and hours hanging around in the outposts with their merchandise.

Enko

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

VA

Mo/

it also looks like there is a price floor on materials. just take a look at some of the normal materials. they've been sitting at 100 gold for a heck of a long time. superior runes have a minimum price of 200 gold. it's possible that we're just approaching the price minimum

pork soldier

pork soldier

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jul 2005

I read the title of this topic and I lol'd.

Shadowspawn X

Shadowspawn X

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jun 2005

Fellowship of Champions

R/E

Quote:
Originally Posted by cyberjanet
OK, so I'm an abnormal player.
.
No you are not, most people are not willing to deal with the loss of using the trader for ecto buying or selling. Maybe I should have used the word average instead of normal but it adds up to the same thing Take that huge chip off of your shoulder while you are at it.

upier

upier

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Mar 2006

Done.

[JUNK]

GWEN is coming out in like 2 weeks.
Any kind of a market predictions atm is just a waste of time (heck even an analysis is pretty pointless because the subjects on it are acting completely different then normal).

Rusty Deth

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jul 2005

Woodland Realm

Mo/N

Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
Also, it is rumored (though not confirmed and this may sound kinda conspiracy theorist, but it makes sense) that the duping glitch had been know for a while by a small group of people. Apparently the glitch existed for months but only came to light when people started doing it with Armbraces and drawing suspicions. As such, it may be possible that the ecto price plummeted so much due to the duping of them.

I'm not sure how much truth there is too that. But it could have been another contributing factor to the ecto crash.
Dude I had the same suspicions when the duping cheat became public last week.

Cause before that, everyone else's theory's on why Ecto's dropped have seemed weak. In fact still.

Hell, people still think there was and still is a farming code in the game.

People will believe anything, but so far the duping scheme is the only hard evidence that i can see being attributed to the ecto price drop of the past 4 months.

SpeedyKQ

SpeedyKQ

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Dec 2005

E/Me

My guess is that people who really cared about using ecto farming as their source of income didn't let favor stop them before (they switched to Euro) so we're not seeing a big difference now.

Still, I'm surprised prices haven't dropped at least a little.

phallanxian

Academy Page

Join Date: Oct 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghost Recon
Possible but i doubt it why would someone dupe an ecto, when they can dupe an armbrace?
because your smart there is already a lot of ectos in the game thats less likley to get picked up than massive ammounts of armbraces, which is how the exploit got found out in the end

Darkobra

Darkobra

Forge Runner

Join Date: Aug 2006

Scotland

Type like an idiot, I'll treat you like an idiot

E/Me

Quote:
Originally Posted by phallanxian
because your smart there is already a lot of ectos in the game thats less likley to get picked up than massive ammounts of armbraces, which is how the exploit got found out in the end
It's smart to duplicate items? When duplicated items have the EXACT same serial code as the original and can't be disposed of? Well, if being smart is getting your account banned, a lot of people are VERY intelligent in this regard then.

Hephaestus Ram

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jun 2005

None

W/E

There are lots of reasons why ecto prices may not drop. Let
me guess what a few might be....

A lot more people are buying fissure armor now that ectos
are cheap.

A lot of people aren't selling them at all for the same reason.

People are selling them directly to other players rather than
the merchants.

People that have a ton of money invested in the are buying
even more from the merchant when the price dips in order
to try and keep the price up.

That you would jump to the conclusion that Anet is manipulating
the market, based on absolutely nothing is just sad.

bobrath

bobrath

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jun 2005

Texas

Scouts of Tyria

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkobra
It's smart to duplicate items? When duplicated items have the EXACT same serial code as the original and can't be disposed of? Well, if being smart is getting your account banned, a lot of people are VERY intelligent in this regard then.
No its smart because no one in the GW realm would have batted an eye at someone with a stack of 250 ectos. Sure its a big wad of cash, but "doable" in the eyes of most. The duper could have gone on his merry way becoming richer and richer as he sold ectos. Once they pass out of his hands, what does he care if it has the same serial code? heck, merch em all and then buy back from the trader. You've just "laundered" the serial code.

yes, there would be a record in the system, but until someone decides to look for duping, you'd be scott-free.

Someone got greedy OR someone let the secret out to a greedy person and that's all it took. When Armbraces start showing up in stacks that no one - not even the "richest" players had seen AND Mallyx was so bugged that even getting an armbrace normally was an event. Well the spotlight got real hot and real bright.

quickmonty

quickmonty

Ancient Windbreaker

Join Date: May 2005

ANet IS the law of supply and demand. They can increase or decrease drop rates (as they did some time ago with ettin rare pauldron drops), or introduce something to increase demand for certain materials. The could also, if they desire, change the prices of the material traders.

Fitz Rinley

Fitz Rinley

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Oct 2005

The Rusty Rose

W/Mo

You need 120 Ecto and 120 Shards to make one suit of armor. In the few times I have been in FoW and UW I have never seen a single one drop; not even the couple times we got a team past the front and into the quests. If prices are going to drop then it will happen after people get the shards and ecto they need for their multiple characters armor. At a rate of 1-3 a day, that is still 4 months per suit. And I am assuming someone else actually finds these things because I never saw one other than at a trader.

Age

Age

Hall Hero

Join Date: Jul 2005

California Canada/BC

STG Administrator

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by bilateralrope
Are we sure that ANET hasn't played with the drop rate ?

Also remember that when we have the no-favor FoW/UW access weekend, ecto and shard prices spiked upawards because of the number of people who, being in the less popular regions (like Japan), were taking advantage of the weekend to go get FoW armor because it was the only time they could reliably get access.

Then there is the possibility of ectos being oversupplied due to duping.
I would say that the drop rate is rather low from the pll I know that go down thee often enough even when there was Continental favour.I doubt they are being duped just more player have more to trade as they have been storing them on their vaults and mules.

Abnaxus

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Nov 2005

Europe

Keepers of Chaos

Ecto's price drop due to dupers is an urban legend.

Let's say that someone was able do dupe ectos when they were at 10k. Then sold them to merchant.
With just 100e, that player would have reached the 1M cap for the storage. Even with 10 slots in the account, no more than 2M.
Even with ectos at 5k, that player may have converted no more than 400 ectos.

After that, that player wouldn't have been able to store more gold, and consequently sell further ectos to trader.

Yes, that player may have obtained 50 stacks of ectos, but wouldn't have been able to sell all of them to the merchant and cause price drop. The best thing he could have done is buying some rare item for some stacks of ectos, but without converting them into cash.

As far as we know, dupers were in limited number. It seem also that no organised gold seller was able to dupe, because otherwise real $ price for in-game cash would have dropped, instead it raised steadily.


The only reason for ectos price drop is the dramatic reduction of merchant white blue and cash drop. Excess cash was removed from the game, and consequently the demand of ectos as alternative way to store extra cash dropped dramatically as well.

Jetdoc

Jetdoc

Hell's Protector

Join Date: Jul 2005

The Eyes of Texas [BEVO]

D/A

Unless there is a price floor, the price of ectos will steadily drop once GW:EN is released.

Why?

People will be investing their cash in the new, flashy armors, and there will be fewer and fewer people wanting the old FoW skins. Yet, people will need to earn cash to buy those new armors and skills, so they will sell their existing stockpiles of ectos (or alternatively go farm UW and FoW), which will send the price down.

I predicted this very accurately before Factions and Nightfall (at which time ectos dropped to around 4K), and you're seeing the same phenomenon now.