Hmmm lock picks still acting weird.
wolfwing
Okay, I posted this back when GWEN came out and people said it's just randomness. SHortly after that I got 20k/2k even for luck/unlucky title. Now a few weeks later I have 39,250k and 4,800, a huge difference, latly I've been retaining one lockpick for every 4-6 failed, and this is with a now gained 49% retaining. Anyone else noticing weird ness with this?
CyberMesh0
My solution to this problem (since I had a running 10:1 retention on 48%) was to ignore the existence of lockpicks altogether. I'm not only happier now, I'm much richer. I know, it means no TH title. Fine by me, if it cuts out the accompanying frustration.
Linksys
I don't have a lucky title but have r3 in treasure and wisdom title tracks, making it 49% for me. At first the lockpick mostly retained for me. Now it's about 50/50.
Which averages about 600 gold per chest opened for me(with access to a discount merchant). For the treasure hunter track, I just get the Kurzick keys instead for 480gold each. That way I'm no gambling and settling for an amount I know I'm paying. Also, the items the chest yields often sell for a good portion of that cost at the merchant and sometimes I may get some weapon mods I can sell.
Which averages about 600 gold per chest opened for me(with access to a discount merchant). For the treasure hunter track, I just get the Kurzick keys instead for 480gold each. That way I'm no gambling and settling for an amount I know I'm paying. Also, the items the chest yields often sell for a good portion of that cost at the merchant and sometimes I may get some weapon mods I can sell.
wolfwing
Heh I really wish games would not lie on %. Seriously, other then a brief stint 3 weeks ago, I've yet to have any real run of luck.
Diddy bow
Out of a few million players there is a great chance a few will get really really bad luck.
...I am one of them
...I am one of them
Senrath
They aren't lying about the percentages. It's just basic statistics. Although you may have a certain retention rate, that rate comes into play each and every time, with no bias. That means, given a 50% retention rate, each and every chest would have a 50% chance of retaining your lockpick, regardless of what happened on the previous chest. However, because of that, the probability of you actually retaining 50% of your lockpicks over a larger number of chests is much smaller than 50%.
wolfwing
Oh come on, please Senrath...don't give me BS. Show me someone who retains 80% of their lockpicks on a regular basis and I might believe you. Thats the defense all the time, it's just a base 50% chance every time. If 100 people flip a coin and it lands 80% heads for all of them, would you call it random chance? Or assume the coins fixed?
Amalek
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Originally Posted by wolfwing
Oh come on, please Senrath...don't give me BS. Show me someone who retains 80% of their lockpicks on a regular basis and I might believe you. Thats the defense all the time, it's just a base 50% chance every time. If 100 people flip a coin and it lands 80% heads for all of them, would you call it random chance? Or assume the coins fixed?
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Davros Uitar
Opened about 4000 chests with lockpicks and I am happy that I am getting my base percentage, covering the cost of the picks, and making a lot of money on the side. Sure I merchant a lot of items, but you have to know what has recoverable value as well (ie what salvages to gems, the value of dust, what mods are saleable and what are not).
If you can't afford to ride out the bumps with lockpicks you will always feel screwed over.
If you can't afford to ride out the bumps with lockpicks you will always feel screwed over.
wolfwing
Nahhh I'm in it for the long run..:> It's just been this way for 80% of my playing.
Senrath
Um, I never said it was actually a 50% base chance. That was just the number I picked for an easy example. And yes, I would call it random chance.
Jecht Scye
I've been breaking much more than 50% lately, and that's the percentage it says I have when I open a chest. At one time I broke 8 straight.
Neo Nugget
I don't bother opening chests in GW:EN. I think there should be something like a key of the north for 600g like all the regular chests. But lockpicks only for HM.
Corwin_Andros
All of my lockpicks work perfectly. Each and every one of them gets me a guaranteed 750gp at the merchant. 
lacasner
I wouldn't mind the breaking of lockpicks if there were actually some items which were worthwhile opening for that don't have a ridiculously low drop percentage(i.e. elemental sword).
A11Eur0
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Originally Posted by Senrath
They aren't lying about the percentages. It's just basic statistics. Although you may have a certain retention rate, that rate comes into play each and every time, with no bias. That means, given a 50% retention rate, each and every chest would have a 50% chance of retaining your lockpick, regardless of what happened on the previous chest. However, because of that, the probability of you actually retaining 50% of your lockpicks over a larger number of chests is much smaller than 50%.
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Statistically speaking, the larger the sample the population, the more likely you are to come close to the expected average of 50%(if that's the case). You take instantaneous luck or unluck out of the equation when you have a pool of hundreds of chests. When someone says "i broke 5 lockpicks yesterday and only kept one...this is broken!", they're more inaccurate than someone saying "I've used 300 lockpicks over the past month and kept only 20% of them, this is broken!"
Sure the chance still exists that you can have a much lower rate of retention than expected, but that chance diminishes as the sample size grows.
combatchuck
If you were to go to a casino, and you had $100 with you. You play a game that has a 50% chance to pay out double your bet. So, if you bet one dollar, you can win two. You will fluctuate around, but once you hit zero, you can't play any more. It's the same with lockpicks, except that when you "win" with a chest, it doesn't give you more lockpicks. Once you reach zero, you have to buy more lockpicks. The nature of gambling means that you will lose money, especially on something with such a low payout. With chest drops, it's either fantastic or merch food. I've been playing since the original preview, and I've only gotten one fantastic chest drop.
This is why they say "the house always wins". Because once you're out, you can't gamble any more. There's a reason they call it a gamble. If they evened the odds, the potential reward would be less valuable.
EDIT: Made it a general reply to the thread instead of being possibly taken as an attack.
This is why they say "the house always wins". Because once you're out, you can't gamble any more. There's a reason they call it a gamble. If they evened the odds, the potential reward would be less valuable.
EDIT: Made it a general reply to the thread instead of being possibly taken as an attack.
Crowell The Fallen
I found that once i hit 57% retain rate from locked chests i was keeping 90% of all my picks. i might only have 1 pick break for every 5 chests. However, when i was on 54%, all my picks broke.
wilebill
Seen a lot of lockpicks used in dungeons. Not seen anyone get anything worth the lockpick price. Not me neither.
VanDamselx
I'm fine right now. In fact my lock picks seem to rarely break.
HawkofStorms
Sigh, do we really need any more conspiracy threads about lockpicks not working right? I mean, none of these posts ever have any factually backing. They are always started by people who feel like they are getting screwed.
You know why that is? People who get good runs of luck with lockpicks don't start threads to complain about them.
You know why that is? People who get good runs of luck with lockpicks don't start threads to complain about them.
strcpy
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Originally Posted by combatchuck
This is why they say "the house always wins". Because once you're out, you can't gamble any more. There's a reason they call it a gamble. If they evened the odds, the potential reward would be less valuable.
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It's interesting to note that one of the most successful roulette "cheaters" (they kept tract of where the ball landed over hundreds of thousands of spins and noticed bias in where the ball landed - casinos call it cheat the rest of us call it smart playing) had between a 55-60% chance of winning and *still* needed in the hundred of thousands of dollars in capital to absorb consecutive losses.
A small percentage like that means you can only win in the short term. Yesterday I finally used up my "lucky lockpick" on it's 15'th or 16'th chest so those long streaks are out there, just no one ever starts a thread to complain about it. Even with a true random number it may take thousands or hundreds of thousands of samples before you get to true, let alone the pseudo random numbers computers use. Many of them *only* get there with really large samples.
Winterclaw
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
I mean, none of these posts ever have any factually backing. They are always started by people who feel like they are getting screwed.
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
You know why that is? People who get good runs of luck with lockpicks don't start threads to complain about them.
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BTW, to the person who said that if you tossed 100 coins and got an 80% rate of heads: with a large enough statistical sample you can patterns and if it's really working. For example if I tossed a coin 10,000 times and got tails 80% of the time, I'd be starting to think that the coin is off balance. If that rate continued to 20K, I'd really be thinking something is wrong. While the results will never actually be what they are stated (50% for the coin), over time they should start to get close to that number.
Arcane_Penguin
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Originally Posted by Corwin_Andros
All of my lockpicks work perfectly. Each and every one of them gets me a guaranteed 750gp at the merchant.
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Senrath
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Originally Posted by A11Eur0
You started out well, but ended on a dud.
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oljomo
Okay, I posted this back when GWEN came out and people said it's just randomness. SHortly after that I got 20k/2k even for luck/unlucky title. Now a few weeks later I have 39,250k and 4,800, a huge difference, latly I've been retaining one lockpick for every 4-6 failed, and this is with a now gained 49% retaining. Anyone else noticing weird ness with this?
ermmmm, 20k/2k is bang on for a 50% retention rate, meaning that you were actually getting lucky for that.
39250 vs 4800 is a bad spell of luck however, definately not far outside teh percentages expected. for 4800 unlucky points, you would expect about 47000 lucky points, (maybe slightly less) and considering streaks go on for about 10 pick openings easily witha 50% chance, your definately not far outside teh realms of possibility (although slightly unlucky indeed, assuming you have only opened gwen locked chests and no hard mode ones)
If you have opened any hard mode chests, then you are still lucky and doing well.
ermmmm, 20k/2k is bang on for a 50% retention rate, meaning that you were actually getting lucky for that.
39250 vs 4800 is a bad spell of luck however, definately not far outside teh percentages expected. for 4800 unlucky points, you would expect about 47000 lucky points, (maybe slightly less) and considering streaks go on for about 10 pick openings easily witha 50% chance, your definately not far outside teh realms of possibility (although slightly unlucky indeed, assuming you have only opened gwen locked chests and no hard mode ones)
If you have opened any hard mode chests, then you are still lucky and doing well.
silara_jorinset
Meh, every time we get into random tertitory I see this.
I play an online version of a dice based minature game and the site forums constantly have people ranting about luck and even saying the java language random number generator is broken.
Personally I've never seen anything to particular suggest its broken. Even a sample rate of 300 is pretty small considering that the seeds in random number generators run into 30,000 + numbers.
In games I've seen runs where everything breaks but also had ones where I've opened every chest in cathedral of flames on two lockpicks at 50% (giving the question from a guildie "Wow many lockpicks do you have?"
I play an online version of a dice based minature game and the site forums constantly have people ranting about luck and even saying the java language random number generator is broken.
Personally I've never seen anything to particular suggest its broken. Even a sample rate of 300 is pretty small considering that the seeds in random number generators run into 30,000 + numbers.
In games I've seen runs where everything breaks but also had ones where I've opened every chest in cathedral of flames on two lockpicks at 50% (giving the question from a guildie "Wow many lockpicks do you have?"
Ruby Lightheart
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Originally Posted by wolfwing
Oh come on, please Senrath...don't give me BS. Show me someone who retains 80% of their lockpicks on a regular basis and I might believe you. Thats the defense all the time, it's just a base 50% chance every time. If 100 people flip a coin and it lands 80% heads for all of them, would you call it random chance? Or assume the coins fixed?
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Commander Ryker
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Originally Posted by Winterclaw
BTW, to the person who said that if you tossed 100 coins and got an 80% rate of heads: with a large enough statistical sample you can patterns and if it's really working. For example if I tossed a coin 10,000 times and got tails 80% of the time, I'd be starting to think that the coin is off balance. If that rate continued to 20K, I'd really be thinking something is wrong. While the results will never actually be what they are stated (50% for the coin), over time they should start to get close to that number.
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therangereminem
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Originally Posted by Corwin_Andros
All of my lockpicks work perfectly. Each and every one of them gets me a guaranteed 750gp at the merchant.
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when i open a chest 1 out of 5 area gold most gold are worth anywhere from
300g to500g and purples like 150 to 300
so how are you getting 750 everytime,
orr wait do you mean your selling your lock picks that drop for youto merchant! that could be!!!!! you do know its east to sell them for 1k in any major city. pm me i will buy all
therangereminem
one last thing about the chance for lockpicks you all are lookign at it the wrong way
say if you have a 60% chance to retain. this is how its done in game
you have a number line (whatever anet uses mostlikey its different with high percents) but say 20
ao you would asign 12 numbers to retain and 8 to not retain. (as this is whata computer progam would do) then it will draw a number out of a hat if it lands on a number in the grouping of the retain you would retain. and so on
also the way you are looking at it the prsents it gives you for retainig whould enver matter. its bad to use a coin for this example. if you would look at it that way you would always have a 49.3333333333333333333 chance to retain. but ths is not the case you have two things to look at retain not retain and the percent you have on your toon.(thus it's making you tip nthe scale to your favor) thats why you need to do more then just head i win tails i loose.
its more 1,2,3,4,5,6 i win 7,8,9,10 i loose(605 chance)
hope this helps, btw i have a 68% chance to retain i did 100 chest retained 67 chests so that was a 67.8 about retained.and always pick tails you have about a 65% chance to get tails sence it weighs more on the face side. somethigni learned from math class
say if you have a 60% chance to retain. this is how its done in game
you have a number line (whatever anet uses mostlikey its different with high percents) but say 20
ao you would asign 12 numbers to retain and 8 to not retain. (as this is whata computer progam would do) then it will draw a number out of a hat if it lands on a number in the grouping of the retain you would retain. and so on
also the way you are looking at it the prsents it gives you for retainig whould enver matter. its bad to use a coin for this example. if you would look at it that way you would always have a 49.3333333333333333333 chance to retain. but ths is not the case you have two things to look at retain not retain and the percent you have on your toon.(thus it's making you tip nthe scale to your favor) thats why you need to do more then just head i win tails i loose.
its more 1,2,3,4,5,6 i win 7,8,9,10 i loose(605 chance)
hope this helps, btw i have a 68% chance to retain i did 100 chest retained 67 chests so that was a 67.8 about retained.and always pick tails you have about a 65% chance to get tails sence it weighs more on the face side. somethigni learned from math class
Aeon221
Law of Large Numbers. Go to wikipedia, check it out. Maybe take a stats class.
Jeez, I should get a friggen bridge.
Jeez, I should get a friggen bridge.
Healers Wisper
you guys, the game isn't broken and there is no conspiracy theory. You just haven't opened enough chests to make a valid observation. with the statistics generated here, you would need a sample size of several thousand to even begin to evaluate the %. If you truely want to test this, we can get 100 players with the same % to open 100 chests. then we can run the statistics and see if they are lying. But the fact is you are only seeing a small fraction of the sample nessesary to see the whole result.
Then you need to test if there is a difference or if you results are random. I do an excersize in my class, I teach statistics, and it amazes people that if you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 8 out of those ten times that you are still statistically = 50%. At 100 flips, you get better but I belive 72% heads is still acceptable. It isn't until you flip around 10,000 times that the error becomes less then 1 or 2%. That is why mendel grew over a million pea plants to come up with his theory of inheritance.
increase your numbers and then we'll talk, 100 chest isn't even close
Then you need to test if there is a difference or if you results are random. I do an excersize in my class, I teach statistics, and it amazes people that if you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 8 out of those ten times that you are still statistically = 50%. At 100 flips, you get better but I belive 72% heads is still acceptable. It isn't until you flip around 10,000 times that the error becomes less then 1 or 2%. That is why mendel grew over a million pea plants to come up with his theory of inheritance.
increase your numbers and then we'll talk, 100 chest isn't even close
Diddy bow
What would be weird would be if no one had bad luck XD.
Tarkin
For 228 chests i have 122 losts and 106 retain with a start from 47% (1/3) and the last ones with 50% (2/3)...
106 retain from 228 is 47%... close of 50%... its nice to me... how more chest i will open more close of 50% i will go...
I waste 152k in keys and get back a bit less or a bit more in cash back... the pain is the purples...
106 retain from 228 is 47%... close of 50%... its nice to me... how more chest i will open more close of 50% i will go...
I waste 152k in keys and get back a bit less or a bit more in cash back... the pain is the purples...
Tarkin
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Originally Posted by Corwin_Andros
All of my lockpicks work perfectly. Each and every one of them gets me a guaranteed 750gp at the merchant.
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Cale Roughstar
I think that in several threads discussing this, the general consensus has been that it is all up to chance. You have exactly the same chance of retaining this time as you did last time. I suggest the book Chaos, Coincidences and all that Math Jazz. Another common conclusion: GW:EN chests are not worth the lockpicks.
Last night I started running some HM Boreas Seabed Chests, and was gettin some decent drops, and my pick retention was about what it should be. I only got one purple, and one regular warrior tome, but the elite ranger tome that I got should offset the price of the keys.
So HM is where my lockpicks will stay, not the goldsink/grape-vine that are EotN chests.
Last night I started running some HM Boreas Seabed Chests, and was gettin some decent drops, and my pick retention was about what it should be. I only got one purple, and one regular warrior tome, but the elite ranger tome that I got should offset the price of the keys.
So HM is where my lockpicks will stay, not the goldsink/grape-vine that are EotN chests.