I've been finding for a while now that I lose my lockpicks more like 80% then 49% of late. And it's not just random, when I hit 50k lucky I only have about 6k unlucky, now doing mostly normal I'm at 79.75k, and 9.75k unlucky. And in the last few days I've opeend about 50 chests and had maybe 10-15 retained, and after doing snowmans lair today had all 5 break.
But also been finding with salvaging, with 32% chance to break I've been having them break 3 out of 4 times, anyone finding weird problems with %?
%'s off latly?
wolfwing
Shiishii Momo
Though most will reply to the thread that it's just an unlucky streak, I think that most would agree that a lot of people, including myself, have had this unlucky streak right about the time that EotN went live. Connection?? hmmm..
wolfwing
Right....most people have this problem but it's completly random right? I bet you the % of people that get their %'s acurate or better are far far less then those that get weird inconsitencies. How about you people that say it's random get a clue.
aapo
Have you ever tossed a coin? With 4 tosses it's pretty likely that you'll get 3 heads. You'll need a way bigger sample if you're attempting to prove anything.
![[DE]](/static/static/../Img/avatar38220_14.gif){kind=avatar}
[DE]
With an infinite number of lockpicks and an infinite number of chests the percentage of retaining them would be 80%. However you obviously don't have an infinite number of lockpicks so chance is really the only thing causing your low retaining value
wolfwing
Right....you guys are full of it. Show me in game proof of a decent amount of players in game that actually retain their said amount and I believe you.
Zeek Aran
I retain just fine. I go through about 50 per week. This is the third of it's kind... stop making new threads whining about not being accurate.
Fionn Falaich
I know it doesn't prove anything and it's just more anecdotal evidence, but I have used about 20 lockpicks in GWEN in the last week or so, and every one of them broke. Every. Last. One. 
Also, since HM in GWEN, I have had only two lockpicks drop for me. Take it for what it's worth (or not).
Also, since HM in GWEN, I have had only two lockpicks drop for me. Take it for what it's worth (or not).
wolfwing
Heh if I was using a coin that 90% always landed heads would you just call it statisticly random, or think I was using a trick coin?
mage767
I'm at Lvl 5 for Treasure Hunter, and it appears that I retain the said % most of the time. Ofcourse, the % varies from NM to HM, and from region to region Sometimes, there is a feeling the % displayed is not correct - but if you open, say, 100 chests in the same region under same difficulty, that percentage is more or less 3 percent off at best. No proofs needed - this isn't a statistics forum!
Martin Alvito
Executive summary of the below: You're right in that the code is non-random, but that probably doesn't have much of an effect at the end of the day. If you want people to believe that your chest drops are jacked up, get a good sample going and demonstrate it.
To the variance/stats people:
It's a known fact that computers DON'T generate "random" numbers. It's an impossibility. What a typical computer does is use some seed (the clock was popular in ancient times) to generate its "random" numbers. The variance argument then breaks down because the computer violates the assumption that the draw is random (draws aren't necessarily independent of one another and aren't necessarily drawn from the same distribution, depending upon the coding).
The question then is: how significant are the effects? Chances are they're not very large, and that your experience is just an example of confirmation bias at work.
It doesn't take a huge sample to get a good test going. Opening 1000 chests would be more than enough to have some confidence in the point estimate, and opening/recording 1000 chest openings is well within the reach of the more hardcore segment of the GW community.
To the variance/stats people:
It's a known fact that computers DON'T generate "random" numbers. It's an impossibility. What a typical computer does is use some seed (the clock was popular in ancient times) to generate its "random" numbers. The variance argument then breaks down because the computer violates the assumption that the draw is random (draws aren't necessarily independent of one another and aren't necessarily drawn from the same distribution, depending upon the coding).
The question then is: how significant are the effects? Chances are they're not very large, and that your experience is just an example of confirmation bias at work.
It doesn't take a huge sample to get a good test going. Opening 1000 chests would be more than enough to have some confidence in the point estimate, and opening/recording 1000 chest openings is well within the reach of the more hardcore segment of the GW community.
aapo
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Originally Posted by wolfwing
Heh if I was using a coin that 90% always landed heads would you just call it statisticly random, or think I was using a trick coin?
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Arlan
so - if a large number of the GW community find the % to retain very low - and the given average is 49-50 - 51% - can all the players that have an over the average retain rate please post here.............................................. .................i'm waiting........................................... .................................................. .................still waiting........................................... ..
Martin Alvito
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Originally Posted by Arlan
so - if a large number of the GW community find the % to retain very low - and the given average is 49-50 - 51% - can all the players that have an over the average retain rate please post here.............................................. .................i'm waiting........................................... .................................................. .................still waiting........................................... ..
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Ekelon
Sometimes... people just have bad luck
More though, what Martin said about computers not being random. I only half believe that. I think if you start a trend it has a good chance of keeping on going though.
More though, what Martin said about computers not being random. I only half believe that. I think if you start a trend it has a good chance of keeping on going though.
Faena
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Originally Posted by Martin Alvito
To the variance/stats people:
It's a known fact that computers DON'T generate "random" numbers. It's an impossibility. What a typical computer does is use some seed (the clock was popular in ancient times) to generate its "random" numbers. The variance argument then breaks down because the computer violates the assumption that the draw is random (draws aren't necessarily independent of one another and aren't necessarily drawn from the same distribution, depending upon the coding). |
I really don't believe Anet would claim, "you have 90% of retaining" while you have 50%. I don't know what would be the point ...
Back to the OP. I have no problem with keeping my lockpicks. In fact, I keep them more than I would usually expect.
Crom The Pale
I had the longest unlucky streat of them all, I never retained a Lockpick from the time they were introduced untill just this week. Then I had 1 pick open 5 chests in a row.
I should have about 20% retention on hard mode and about 50% on normal for locked chests in GWEN, but I never retained any in GWEN untill they added hard mode, wierd......
I should have about 20% retention on hard mode and about 50% on normal for locked chests in GWEN, but I never retained any in GWEN untill they added hard mode, wierd......
Dante the Warlord
Well, the 50% retention rate would be considered average if you actually do get it 50% of the time. Statistically speaking, there is a small chance you could not get any retained, as well as a small chance you could get them all retained. So nothing is theoretically impossible, just minimal in percentage.
So non-statistically speaking, you are in a "bad-luck-streak". But believe in the law of large numbers ;-). Basically it means that could open 10 chest and have all of them break, then 90 lockpicks later, have 50 of them work, 40 of them break...etc. The chances of the lockpick retaining will become mathematically smaller and smaller since every retention is multiplied by 50%. so after two unsucessfull takes, you have a 1/4 chance to lose the lockpick, then if you lose it again 1/8, then 1/16, then 1/32 and so on...
So non-statistically speaking, you are in a "bad-luck-streak". But believe in the law of large numbers ;-). Basically it means that could open 10 chest and have all of them break, then 90 lockpicks later, have 50 of them work, 40 of them break...etc. The chances of the lockpick retaining will become mathematically smaller and smaller since every retention is multiplied by 50%. so after two unsucessfull takes, you have a 1/4 chance to lose the lockpick, then if you lose it again 1/8, then 1/16, then 1/32 and so on...
Firefly21
Hello, I been having good luck with farming in the snowman area... (Other than a few bugs i get)
My Stats:
63% To Save. (level 5 chest level 4 lucky)
I used 350 Lockpicks.
I open 977 chests.
ATM I'm a level 5 lucky now, will test more when I'm a level 6 chest.
My Stats:
63% To Save. (level 5 chest level 4 lucky)
I used 350 Lockpicks.
I open 977 chests.
ATM I'm a level 5 lucky now, will test more when I'm a level 6 chest.
Savio
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Originally Posted by Dante the Warlord
The chances of the lockpick retaining will become mathematically smaller and smaller since every retention is multiplied by 50%. so after two unsucessfull takes, you have a 1/4 chance to lose the lockpick, then if you lose it again 1/8, then 1/16, then 1/32 and so on...
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kooomar
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Originally Posted by Savio
Wrong. Regardless of what happened to the previous lockpicks, you'll still have a 50% chance of retaining the next one.
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Also, 50 lockpicks is such a small sample, if you have bad luck over 1000 or so, I would agree with you that something is up, but until then, sorry bout the bad luck
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Dante the Warlord
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Originally Posted by Savio
Wrong. Regardless of what happened to the previous lockpicks, you'll still have a 50% chance of retaining the next one.
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I know i may have been a little vague but i was in a rush
Savio
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Originally Posted by Dante the Warlord
Its statistically speaking... its simple math 50% X50% x 50% and the odds of you getting a successful lockpick retention theoretically increase.
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You can look at the total number of lockpicks used. If he uses 2 lockpicks, he has a 1/4 chance that both lockpicks break. If he uses 3 lockpicks, he has a 1/8 chance that all of them break. If he uses 10,000 lockpicks, he has a 1/(2^10,000) chance that all of them break. As he uses more lockpicks, the chance that he breaks all of them gets lower.
Or you can look at the next lockpick. If he had broken 1 lockpick already, he has a 1/2 chance that the next one will break. If he had broken 2 lockpicks already, he has a 1/2 chance that the next one will break. If he had broken 10,000 lockpicks already, he has a 1/2 chance that the next one will break. Regardless of the number of lockpicks broken already, he still has a 1/2 chance to break the next one. His odds will not get better except for an increase in title rank.
Tactical-Dillusions
I stopped buying and even using found lockpicks a long time ago. I hit a suspiciously unlucky streak.
I can't remember the exact number but it was something like 2 retained out of 30 when my chance was something like 48% retention.
Never again!
I can't remember the exact number but it was something like 2 retained out of 30 when my chance was something like 48% retention.
Never again!
strcpy
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Originally Posted by Dante the Warlord
Its statistically speaking... its simple math 50% X50% x 50% and the odds of you getting a successful lockpick retention theoretically increase. You are true if you look at this at a one point view e.g. guy walks up and opens one chest lockpick breaks. But look at it from mathematics, the next time the guy opens another chest it would have been a 1/4 that he would have broken it twice, 1/8 chance that he would have broken it 3 times...etc. etc. etc.
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I had written out a fairly large post, but that link has the same "overview" I had and goes into more detail. I also rather suggest that most of the people in posting here click on the "Law of averages" link in that article - so far only a VERY small handful of people have any idea whatsoever what they are talking about. I'm reminded of the saying "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing".
Monique
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Originally Posted by Savio
You're not vague, you're wrong. There are two ways to look at this:
You can look at the total number of lockpicks used. If he uses 2 lockpicks, he has a 1/4 chance that both lockpicks break. If he uses 3 lockpicks, he has a 1/8 chance that all of them break. If he uses 10,000 lockpicks, he has a 1/(2^10,000) chance that all of them break. As he uses more lockpicks, the chance that he breaks all of them gets lower. Or you can look at the next lockpick. If he had broken 1 lockpick already, he has a 1/2 chance that the next one will break. If he had broken 2 lockpicks already, he has a 1/2 chance that the next one will break. If he had broken 10,000 lockpicks already, he has a 1/2 chance that the next one will break. Regardless of the number of lockpicks broken already, he still has a 1/2 chance to break the next one. His odds will not get better except for an increase in title rank. |
TY SAVIO FOR ACTUALLY UNDERSTANDING MATH
IT'S A GREAT CHANGE FROM THE GENERAL RETARDS IN THIS PLACE.
Spike
While I DO understand the maths. My question is IF things worked how they should WHY are there so many threads about this ?
Now I know that some people will have runs of bad luck, but when I hear of people have lost over 100 lockpicks in a row (with 50% or better chance to retain) and at the same time not geting any golds dureing that time and this ONLY happend after gwen was released. It does seem very odd.
Now I know that some people will have runs of bad luck, but when I hear of people have lost over 100 lockpicks in a row (with 50% or better chance to retain) and at the same time not geting any golds dureing that time and this ONLY happend after gwen was released. It does seem very odd.
Zeek Aran
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Originally Posted by Spike
Now I know that some people will have runs of bad luck, but when I hear of people have lost over 100 lockpicks in a row (with 50% or better chance to retain) and at the same time not geting any golds dureing that time and this ONLY happend after gwen was released. It does seem very odd.
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Lady Raenef
It's a matter of luck. I've had streaks where I retain maybe six or seven in a row, and then the streaks where ten or so break in a row.
strcpy
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Originally Posted by Spike
While I DO understand the maths. My question is IF things worked how they should WHY are there so many threads about this ?
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Quote:
| Now I know that some people will have runs of bad luck, but when I hear of people have lost over 100 lockpicks in a row (with 50% or better chance to retain) and at the same time not geting any golds dureing that time and this ONLY happend after gwen was released. |
Personally I have had just the opposite - I pretty much never retained lockpicks before GWEN, I've gotten most of second rank of treasure hunter off of 10-15 lockpicks (and with no lucky title to boot). Then we have other factors - how often do they open chests? Is their "memory" correct on the numbers (for instance, I see lucky/unlucky number compared but there are other things that put points in either one) or are they just remember when things go bad (as humans are VERY prone to do)?
If you understood the math not only is the sample size WAY too small even on a single individual, but there are not enough individuals, the sample is HIGHLY biased towards bad percentages, and there is VERY little done in accurate keeping of lockpicks broken/retained. In fact, so far there isn't *any* part of this "study" that is done correctly, let alone be able to draw any conclusion from it.
It's not bad to point out and ask questions - after all there may very well be something wrong and Anet may need to look into it. My retain rate has been VERY high for quite a while, enough so that it is noticeable. Yet, I am but one person out of how many thousands (or even millions) that regularly log on - someone has to get the gold, someone has to get the crap. About the only entity that can correctly deduce if this is true is Anet through server logs.
Buzzer
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Originally Posted by Spike
While I DO understand the maths. My question is IF things worked how they should WHY are there so many threads about this ?
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Most people think they are unlucky.
dont feel no pain
If you flip a coin and it lands heads 5 times in a row its still 50/50
same with lockpicks.... bad or good luck doesnt = Failure on Possibilities.
same with lockpicks.... bad or good luck doesnt = Failure on Possibilities.
william1975
Anyone that understands statistics knows that to have an accurate estimation you need a massive sample, and 100 is miniscule, 1000 is small, really i wouldnt be happy with a sample smaller than 10,000. That way the error will be small enough that it will be negligible.
most people don't seem to understand that every time you do something that has a 50/50 chance of working that each time you do it there is always a 50/50 chance of one of the outcomes occuring
most people don't seem to understand that every time you do something that has a 50/50 chance of working that each time you do it there is always a 50/50 chance of one of the outcomes occuring
Redfeather1975
It's really based on karma.
Lukarnus
I've noticed recently while i've been out mapping, that each area you enter seems to decide when you enter it 2 things. 1) whether your lockpick breaks and 2) whether you get gold or purple. I say this as every area i've been in where i use lockpicks either always breaks or always retains while i'm in that area, and if i get a purple first i always seem to get purple for that area and the same for gold. Don't know if this is just coincidence but it seems to work that way for me.
MYSTERYouse
Its true that you cannot have valid information about the retention rate when you have used only a few LP.
Just take a look onto Firefly's post, his numbers can tell something, but we cannot judge this by taking only few chests into count.
I am doing own track about retention of my lockpicks, but I dont have enough data, but so far:
84% - 19 opened - 3 LP used
60% - 30 opened - 19 LP used
Its best when you write it down so you can see the things clearly. Its certain than you will remember more that you have broken the lockpick than you retained it (because you lost it that way).
Just take a look onto Firefly's post, his numbers can tell something, but we cannot judge this by taking only few chests into count.
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Hello, I been having good luck with farming in the snowman area... (Other than a few bugs i get) My Stats: 63% To Save. (level 5 chest level 4 lucky) I used 350 Lockpicks. I open 977 chests. ATM I'm a level 5 lucky now, will test more when I'm a level 6 chest. |
84% - 19 opened - 3 LP used
60% - 30 opened - 19 LP used
Its best when you write it down so you can see the things clearly. Its certain than you will remember more that you have broken the lockpick than you retained it (because you lost it that way).
Spazzer
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Originally Posted by wolfwing
Right....you guys are full of it. Show me in game proof of a decent amount of players in game that actually retain their said amount and I believe you.
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zwei2stein
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Originally Posted by Spazzer
You're operating on a Law of Averages falacy. It's possible that even with a 90% retain rate you could break 100,000 lockpicks in a row.
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% of retain can be any number < 100 /you can have retain of 99.9999% and still experience bad luck streaks, you can add whatever amount of 9s after decimal point/
# of lockpicks can pretty much approach infinity. again, add whatever amount of trailing zeroes, you can still experience same result.
regardless of % propability, streaks of "bad" luck of any length are going to happen. in fact, it would be really weird if they didnt.
Martin Alvito
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Originally Posted by Firefly21
My Stats:
63% To Save. (level 5 chest level 4 lucky) I used 350 Lockpicks. I open 977 chests. |
Actual rate: 64.2% (derived by: (977-350)/977)
See how easy these things are to test? If the lockpick algorithm "works", 95% of repeated 1000-ish openings should be within 3-4% of the stated rate.
Odds are, this is the majority of what you'll see when people post larger blocks of results.