Chest drop rates/Lockpick success rates

LeetScythemaster

LeetScythemaster

Academy Page

Join Date: Apr 2007

Dragonslayers of Ascalon

D/Mo

I just got finished running 3 areas of GW:EN for chests. I'm rank 2 Wisdom and rank 2 Treasure Hunter so I have a retain rate of 52%. Well, after running those three areas and opening 10 chests, i ended up with 9 purples, 1 gold, and 9 broken lockpicks . I'm not a math genius, but those numbers seem a little off. I know nothing will happen as far as fixing the retain rate or drop rates, maybe I just had a bad chest run day, but I just had to vent I guess.

Post what you think/feel.

Diddy bow

Diddy bow

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2006

Jawsome!!!!!!!!!!!

looking for one :p

A/D

well othre people will prberly tell you this, but such a small number istn really conclusive, its annoying ut out of the people on guru who have really rubbish luck in GW:EN there are thousands who are fine. Probs just your luck though, i used to have it bad in GW:EN now its so-so they may have kept it a little bad at the start to help keep the weapons at least a little rare, who knows?

I wonder how a fixed rate would work? I.E a system with no attribute of chance.

Dev121

Dev121

Forge Runner

Join Date: Sep 2005

Sorry to say but these are a risk and always have been. You cant lose in vegas then say 'But the other guys are winning'. Just gunna have to get on with it im afraid.

Antheus

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

Use 1000 lockpicks, then look at statistics.

10 is not significant.

Quote:
I wonder how a fixed rate would work?
This is a fixed rate. If you have 50% retain chance, you will retain the picks half the time. It doesn't vary from opening to opening.

placebo overdose

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2007

N/

Quote:
Originally Posted by LeetScythemaster
I just got finished running 3 areas of GW:EN for chests. I'm rank 2 Wisdom and rank 2 Treasure Hunter so I have a retain rate of 52%. Well, after running those three areas and opening 10 chests, i ended up with 9 purples, 1 gold, and 9 broken lockpicks . I'm not a math genius, but those numbers seem a little off. I know nothing will happen as far as fixing the retain rate or drop rates, maybe I just had a bad chest run day, but I just had to vent I guess.

Post what you think/feel.
well i dont want to really talk about lps i dont think the system is right but thats me although you dont have a 52% chance of not breaking sorry you have a 16% chance so your results are about normal now the gold/ purple ratio is odd imo
wisdom has nothing to do with lp rate and treasure hunter is 3% per

HawkofStorms

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

Read.
Now shh....

Winterclaw

Winterclaw

Wark!!!

Join Date: May 2005

Florida

W/

You'd have to compile the number of grapes and breaks from a number of players to get large enough of a sample to have a good idea. I'd say you'd need to have 10K worth of data or more to be enough.

Hawk a better article: Gambler's Fallacy

Div

Div

I like yumy food!

Join Date: Jan 2006

Where I can eat yumy food

Dead Alley [dR]

Mo/R

This isn't a suggestion. It's just an idiot crying about his bad luck. Close?

Snow Bunny

Snow Bunny

Alcoholic From Yale

Join Date: Jul 2007

Strong Foreign Policy [sFp]

Quote:
Originally Posted by holymasamune
This isn't a suggestion. It's just an idiot crying about his bad luck. Close?
QFT.

o noes, i tried to get rich outta a money sink and i lost money. qq

Phoenix Tears

Phoenix Tears

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Feb 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by LeetScythemaster
I just got finished running 3 areas of GW:EN for chests. I'm rank 2 Wisdom and rank 2 Treasure Hunter so I have a retain rate of 52%. Well, after running those three areas and opening 10 chests, i ended up with 9 purples, 1 gold, and 9 broken lockpicks . I'm not a math genius, but those numbers seem a little off. I know nothing will happen as far as fixing the retain rate or drop rates, maybe I just had a bad chest run day, but I just had to vent I guess.

Post what you think/feel.
ya..i have also the feeling in the last days, that lockpick success rate is broken ..

my last like 15 lockpics did all broke in a row ....

normally, the pattern looks more like this:

fail fail, success, fail, success, succes, fail, fail, fail, success....

but not 15x in a row fail -.-

imo the chances needs to be checked ...

Cebe

Cebe

The 5th Celestial Boss

Join Date: Jul 2006

Inverness, Scotland

The Cult of Scaro [WHO]

E/

10 locked chests opened is hardly a significant sample.

Since this is basically amounts to a rant thread and is not suggesting anything I feel a full-on closure about to occur.