Economist(s) Working on GW2

shoyon456

shoyon456

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2006

D/

This may in part be a rant, so please excuse me if I wander off...

Now, I dont know what everyone else is thinking, but ecto, which has always been a staple, is basically not worth farming anymore. I did at least 5 uw smite runs today which yielded 1-2 ecto each, less than 400 gold each average, and the usual junk such as remains, white weapons, etc...

In my opinion, these things point to one thing: GW's economy is in the dumps, and has been for some time now. Instead of trying to keep up with players and nerf effecient smite solo builds like in the past, they have simply "given in" and instead relegated drops down throughout the game.

I know GW2 is a long ways away, and I will probably be past the whole "guildwars phase" when I see how much anet has diverted from their gw1 ideals in it, but I just have one very serious question to pose to those who will endure with guildwars...

Do you think anet will have REAL ECONOMISTS working on guildwars2?

It's a serious question, considering the way the gw1 market/economy is so split between lower and upper class due to uber rare minis that anet releases to only a select few who just have to get "lucky" I guess.

If they dont have some serious economic plans for the entire future of guildwars2, in my opinion it the market will go the same way as gw1, no middle class like some 3rd world country.

Songbringer

Songbringer

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2007

EastCoast

E/Me

LIKE AMERICA!!!! sorry I had to throw in a hate towards american economy since it is so bad right now. I am american so please don't flame me out...it was a joke. HEHE HAHA kinda thing ^_^.

As for the post. I hope the gw2 econemy is more stable then gw1. your right the few lucky players who get the polar bear mini(just example) from that wintersday chest thing are the uper class. While rest are stuck with only some stacks of ectos sitting around waiting for the ecto price to go back to 12k or so

TaCktiX

TaCktiX

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Oct 2006

The Order of Chaos Reborn [ToC]

The price of ectos will never go back up. Just get crap-tons of FoW armor for all your characters.

As for the suggestion, I agree that there should be some economic consultation. Right now aside from the definite money sinks of armor, crafted weapons, and merchant-able items, there is nothing.

With the luck drops and the large amount of funds in the hands of a few, we end up with an oligopoly instead of a capitalist competition trading system. That's stupid and ridiculous, because you have overpriced new skin weapons, and underpriced "has-been" skin weapons. You get the new skin weapon in a good stat, you are SET. If you don't, bummer, you're just stuck.

So either add more near-mandatory money sinks into GW2, or have a definite way to remove or depreciate funds out in the market. Too many uber-rich, too many uber-poor, nobody in between.

Antheus

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

Quote:
While rest are stuck with only some stacks of ectos
If you have a stack/stacks of ectos, you're middle class.

Low class is 1 character, zero items, collector armor/weapons.

High class is more than 1 FoW armor.

Quote:
Too many uber-rich, too many uber-poor, nobody in between
Old saying has it best: "A fool and his money are soon parted".

Let's take WoW. Will you say that there it's too hard to too much gold?

Are the normal players who need 6 months to gather 6000 (or whatever) gold for their epic mount uber-poor? Nope - they are upper middle class.

Quote:
I did at least 5 uw smite runs today which yielded 1-2 ecto each
First: UW ecto farming has been long considered not worth it. Same as troll cave, gryphons, etc. It's not Anet's fault you continue to farm there.

Second: Minis make for some quick cash. But that's not how people get rich. The richest people in GW are those that are first to everything. They farmed UW on the first day GW launched. They made insane fortunes. On second week, they moved to riverside. And so on....

Why weren't you doing Slavers when GW:EN came out? Or the HoS run. Or cathedran runs (I hear this one is still very good).

In GW, making money is easy. Becoming uber rich however is just a matter of being there first.

There are flukes. But that's not where richest people come from. And that is the same with every game.

placebo overdose

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2007

N/

richest are the people who know how to play the market and already have a lot to start with

Operative 14

Operative 14

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2006

Arizona, USA

[OOP] Order of the Phoenix I

shoyon456, I'll take your 5-10 ectos if you don't want them.

Anyhoo-

I think it would be worthwhile for them to get a consultant, if nothing else, for the economy. I'd have to say that's probably one of the most important aspects of game once you have been playing for a while.

The Meth

The Meth

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2007

R/

The terms 'Lower class' and 'High class' really don't apply to guild wars. The way guild wars is set up the lower class has basically no disadvantage compared to the higher class. The only way to 'fix' the economy would be to actually give the higher class an advantage because of their gold, so that being rich actually had meaningful value. The fact is that any mmo economy is pretty screwed up in the first place, you have a limitless supply (monsters) and a fixed demand (playerbase). Unless you plan to 'tax' players some how through something like repairing damaged weaponry there is virtually no way to make the economy balanced.

Will The Heretic

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Jan 2008

I'm not sure if anyone has thought about this but Temple Of Balthazar International Dist 1 is where all the fow/chaos glove wearing millionares are. This also seems to be the place where you pick up platinum ordered from sites that use bots to farm their gold on multiple accounts...

I have also noticed hundreds of different bots spamming thier sites and have had myself, my entire guild and everyone i know report them, with NO results at all. I even made a joke that Arenanet was taking payment from the botters to let them spam (starting to be less of a joke to me these days).

IMHO, if bots advertising making 2 million gold with like 50.00 in 5 minutes were removed, the economy might be a bit better.

oh, and yay first post 8D!

Kanyatta

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

Guildless, pm me

R/Mo

Quote:
Originally Posted by Will The Heretic
I even made a joke that Arenanet was taking payment from the botters to let them spam (starting to be less of a joke to me these days).
I knew it wasn't a joke the first time I heard it 2 years ago, when I saw 100-150 bots in Elona's Reach ID1. There's always stuff going on in the inner workings of Anet that the community will never know about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Will The Heretic
IMHO, if bots advertising making 2 million gold with like 50.00 in 5 minutes were removed, the economy might be a bit better.
Pretty much everyone recognizes that, and it would be so easy for Anet to do, that's why your other statement just doesn't seem like a joke.

Will The Heretic

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Jan 2008

Well at least someone agrees there...most people have been afraid to say it because of the increasingly wicked ban stick :P

Kanyatta

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

Guildless, pm me

R/Mo

Quote:
Originally Posted by Will The Heretic
Well at least someone agrees there...most people have been afraid to say it because of the increasingly wicked ban stick :P
As long as there are conspiracies out there, I will make it my duty to have an opinion on them!!!

shoyon456

shoyon456

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2006

D/

so, to get back on topic...

Economy in GW2 should:

Be protected against botters/gold selling with a very modern system

be at least in part setup by REAL economists who have some know-how about mmo economics aswell

Be supported and regulated through solid "staples" as it were

the_jos

the_jos

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

Hard Mode Legion [HML]

N/

Do you have any insight in RL economy?
Consider this: a large part of the world population is poor.
And not poor as in "do I have enough money to keep my car", but as in "do I have food tomorrow".
And the only reason the rich are helping is when they have some form of advantage.

There are some improvements that can be made in an online economy, for example better trading with a store or auction, but those will only help up to a certain point.
The main thing an online economy needs is protection against massive inflation. And trade to be as transparent as possible.
Besides that, if the community decides to make a shadow currency, like 'ecto, they create their own risk. Shadow currencies are priced by the market and are influenced by supply and demand and the future expectations of the market.
The official game currency is influenced by the amount of gold entering and exiting the economy.
The moment the online economy needs regulation, other than inflation control, something else is wrong.
And inflation control is hard, part of the current problems on the US mortgage market are caused by failing to control inflation in the past.

Dronte

Dronte

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Sep 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by Antheus
If you have a stack/stacks of ectos, you're middle class.

Low class is 1 character, zero items, collector armor/weapons.

High class is more than 1 FoW armor.

I cant understand your logic tbh. Stack/stacks of ectos are more likely high class.
Btw, I bought my warrior fow when ectos were 11-12k. So its not the same as my necro's fow which I bought when ectos were 5,5k. There are huge differences between fow armor and fow armor. So its not a good point.
And lets see, someone has 2 fow armors, thats like ~250 ectos, and you count it richer than that guy who has stack/stacks of ectos?
Low class is items/ectos/money/armor worth <200k imo.
Middle class ~1 FoW armor, some rare stuff, all in all worth ~750-1000k.
High class is over that, more likely stuff >1500k

Mangione

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: May 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by shoyon456
Do you think anet will have REAL ECONOMISTS working on guildwars2?

It's a serious question, considering the way the gw1 market/economy [...]

If they dont have some serious economic plans for the entire future of guildwars2, in my opinion it the market will go the same way as gw1, no middle class like some 3rd world country.
O M G
Awful perspective!

Come on guys... Aren't you taking this "ingame economy" too seriously?
Real economists following the ingame market? Please...

tankity tank

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Sep 2007

R/

There's no liquidity because there's no convenient way to sell, fix that and you've fixed a lot of other issues.

jackie

jackie

/retired

Join Date: Dec 2005

On the Beach

Well to be totally honest, I hope economy in GW2 won't focus just on rare drops because farming is the fastest way to ruin economy.

Instead I would love to see playerbased crafting, for example one could choose to be an armorsmith/crafter of bows/miner/etc. and there would be restrictions to how to gather and make different kind of ingredients/materials needed for crafting. In addition to crafting there would be rare loot of course to keep the killing spree mildly entertaining.

Integrate economy & players together, make economy & phat loot more than just vanity, then we could start speaking of more stable economy.

MithranArkanere

MithranArkanere

Underworld Spelunker

Join Date: Nov 2006

wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigo

Heraldos de la Llama Oscura [HLO]

E/

But in GW there is the base that 'one can bake almost anything'.

So instead of choosing, they could be 'part-time' jobs.
You could change your 'Master Crafter', and even learn recipes to craft things in many NPCs around the world.

So, you want to make metal armor, you become aprentice of a Master ArmorSmith, you want to make weapons, you quit the job and go learn from a Master Blacksmith. You could also lear the job and become master yourself, and being able to make things for the professions you have already mastered, without having to go change jobs.

'Anyone can learn anything' I mean.

Antheus

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dronte
I cant understand your logic tbh. Stack/stacks of ectos are more likely high class.
Btw, I bought my warrior fow when ectos were 11-12k. So its not the same as my necro's fow which I bought when ectos were 5,5k. There are huge differences between fow armor and fow armor. So its not a good point.
And lets see, someone has 2 fow armors, thats like ~250 ectos, and you count it richer than that guy who has stack/stacks of ectos?
Low class is items/ectos/money/armor worth <200k imo.
Middle class ~1 FoW armor, some rare stuff, all in all worth ~750-1000k.
High class is over that, more likely stuff >1500k
Look....

Let's define the criteria about who's rich and who isn't by setting precise amounts in gold. Having 1000k puts you into upper lower middle class II. Or something.

People are so obsessed with this level mind-set they want everything done by levels.

It's not about the sum of money you have. Having 100 or 101 ectos is irrelevant. Rare items are rare because they are rare and rare items are rare. That's the point. It's not about the amount of money they are worth.

I don't have FoW, but I have enough resources stored for two sets. By the time I got that together, I realized that I don't really care about flashy stuff.

But with this amount of money, I can buy *anything* in game. Any armor (FoW included), and rune, any skill, get any run, and craft any weapon. As such, by definition, I'm as rich as one can get.

The rare item market isn't about showing off your money. It's about rare items alone. And that's something people simply don't understand. You cannot have rare items accessible. And accessible items cannot be expensive.

All this critique about economy is simply about "I grinded my money for 1 year, I deserve a mini panda, economy needs to be nerfed". No - there are 10 Pandas, nobody deserves them, nobody earns them. If you want them, they are out there. Get them. They aren't part of the game, they aren't a reward, they are a token in trading game that some people play, but has nothing to do with GW.

MithranArkanere

MithranArkanere

Underworld Spelunker

Join Date: Nov 2006

wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigo

Heraldos de la Llama Oscura [HLO]

E/

Well. Problem comes when those 10 pandas are dedicated or destroyed.

Then the economy needs another 10 pandas injected into the market.

There should never be more than a limited ammount of the really rare items, but never banish to the point of remaining just one, or it would be as expensive as the blood of 500 beautiful virgins.

So. I think that GW should keep track of the real rare items (those with limited adquisition) so no more are added when there are enoug, and more are added when there are not.

Winterclaw

Winterclaw

Wark!!!

Join Date: May 2005

Florida

W/

I think the value of having an economist is questionable based on his skills in the trade and his political leanings.

the_jos

the_jos

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

Hard Mode Legion [HML]

N/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterclaw
I think the value of having an economist is questionable based on his skills in the trade and his political leanings.
Could be. What's perhaps also a good idea is to define what a good game economy should look like.
Based on that it would be easier to determine which actions would benefit it the most.

Malice Black

Site Legend

Join Date: Oct 2005

Poor people - 1.5k armor, use purples, crap golds. No cash in storage.

Middle-low class - 1or 2 set of 15k, couple golds. <100k in storage

Middle-high class - Couple sets of 15k. Some vanity items. Couple of gold sink titles

High class - 1mill in storage/stack+of ecto. High ends items (vanity items are not high end). FoW armor on multiple chars

Rich - 20mill+

DarkWasp

DarkWasp

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Mar 2005

Paradise

Agency Of Forbidden Fruits [Oot]

R/A

If GW2 has a Xunlai Marketplace or anything like it, the economy would hit a whole new approach.

Lemme make some assumptions if GW1 always had one, there woulda been:

Higher selling rates on purples (like 500-900g to newbies in ascalon who needed good weapons)

Higher selling rates on perfect but average skins (2000-5000 to people who are near level 20 or buying for heroes)

Lower selling rates on ectos (thus freeing FOW armor from the ebay-only status after the first year)

-------

Anyway, my point is, the market has a totally different curve because of the convenience of a trade system. Especialy on low end items. Low end items are the majority of the loot recieved by farmers, therefore making farming more worth while and profitable. It also gives people who are rushing through the game a chance to sell their common skin weapons without spamming hopelessly for 4 hours.

Zinger314

Zinger314

Debbie Downer

Join Date: May 2006

N/Me

A real economist would require a greater salary than those of all of ArenaNet's employees combined.

MithranArkanere

MithranArkanere

Underworld Spelunker

Join Date: Nov 2006

wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigo

Heraldos de la Llama Oscura [HLO]

E/

With the current system, selling is slow, so people only want to sell things that have high prices.

The players that trade more try to get and sell 'rarity spike' items.

Something like a Bazaar, with fixed prices and limited upper caps in price, would make selling much faster, thus people would stop casting to merchants req 7..13 perfect weapons and offhands, and putting them into the market.

We'll also see that people would only want the cheapest higher-rarity inscribed weapons with the mods closest to the ones thy want.

What's it? Since people would get more sells, they wont care about selling thins cheaper, because they would get more overall cash.

The amount of people that do not sell because it is boring and time-consuming is quite high!

If you turn all of the into merchants, market would go really active!

NecroticChanter

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Nov 2007

Toronto

Real Eyes Realize Real Lies[Tree]

P/

I don't think a economist is really needed...soon we'll have a stock market xD


GW2 chat log:

The DOW Jones Industrial is up 51 points thanks to a recent nerf...Also ectos drop 10k followed by black dyes...


OMFG...better yet! The new class: Economist

U control the economy!

Skill example: Sale: All prices are lowered by 15%....60%.

Zahr Dalsk

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Aug 2007

Canada

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zinger314
A real economist would require a greater salary than those of all of ArenaNet's employees combined.
Totally owned.

(By the way, I don't see a problem with Gw economy as it is. My elite armours still cost 15k per piece, I don't care if the high end traders are having problems.)

Holly Herro

Holly Herro

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

Kangaroo-land.

Blades of the Dingo [AUST]

Don't threat everyone, Guild Wars 2 is coming.

It.Will.Save.Us.All

netniwk

netniwk

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Mar 2005

Bellgium

W/E

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zinger314
A real economist would require a greater salary than those of all of ArenaNet's employees combined.
yea,its time we release the poor monkys that they have working for them.
/facepalm

Saphrium

Saphrium

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Oct 2006

Granite Citadel

Post Searing Ascalonian Merchants

N/Me

Quote:
Originally Posted by shoyon456
This may in part be a rant, so please excuse me if I wander off...

Now, I dont know what everyone else is thinking, but ecto, which has always been a staple, is basically not worth farming anymore. I did at least 5 uw smite runs today which yielded 1-2 ecto each, less than 400 gold each average, and the usual junk such as remains, white weapons, etc...

In my opinion, these things point to one thing: GW's economy is in the dumps, and has been for some time now. Instead of trying to keep up with players and nerf effecient smite solo builds like in the past, they have simply "given in" and instead relegated drops down throughout the game.
I am sorry to say, it does not make any sense. I don't see any logic connect the ecto example to the GW economy. If I try really hard to summary the cloudy reasoning used above, here is an abbreviated sentence: If ectos ever get lower drop rate, GW economy is screwed up, therefore the way to fix GW economy is to raise ecto's drop rate, and that's why Anet needs to hire an economist to raise the ecto drop rate, since Anet staff is not competent enough to do so.

And to everyone else: Economists are over-rated.

Siadena

Siadena

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: May 2007

Rome

Order Of The Immortal

W/

/Signed. Good call...


In addition to everyone "arguing" about lower/middle/upper class, here is an IG stat that might help. Albeit this is 6+ months old, but things couldn't have changed that drastically since then. Also, you need to take into account it's a free game, so some people create accounts, then leave the game and the account is still out there in cyber land.

*85% of GW accounts/players have a total of 25k or less on their account.

System_Crush

System_Crush

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Oct 2006

Tripping in Holland

My guild died :`(

N/

GW economy needs the wealth to be spread.
Not money sinks, those affect e4y1, hence they must be balanced to the average of playerbase, which puts it low as 85% of the players that has less than 25K(includes me )
So it won't do a good job of bringing down the rich players.

Rich players just trade vanity items amongst each other, keeping the money in their circles.
What is needed is to make sure people have a chance to get something that the people with money will pay for unfarmable, so that the people that want them will have to pay whoever has one and can't farm them themselves to get richer.

I'm not sure on how to accomplish this, so take the following examples with a grain of salt.
Best I can think of is making the sunspear battle recommendations, trade contracts and that all those useful for something people would want, other than trading them for a 2K superior salvage kit.
You can only get a limited number of each, so wealth would have to spread amongst everyone that does missions.
Also possible would be level locked area's in which consumables drop, so if you are over level ?16? you can't get underworld passes anymore; but that sounds like it will just annoy people.

Anyone have better ideas on how to make the upper class spread their wealth around?

MithranArkanere

MithranArkanere

Underworld Spelunker

Join Date: Nov 2006

wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigo

Heraldos de la Llama Oscura [HLO]

E/

Inscriptions worldwide.

Fixed number of limited miniatures (those gained in contests and events) so after one is destroyed or dedicated, another one is added to the market, thus not increasing in price the less they are.

Usually, adding new things to the market decreases the price of the rest, and removing them from circulation increases the price of the rest.

So if the game had a way to keep track of how many rare things are there, and increases and decreases drop depending on hom many exist, economy would be a bit more balanced.

NamelessBeauty

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2008

Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI

Mo/

Lets talk about real word.

Before gold and oil are super high in prices due to hard-work of exploiting. But its price become less and less due to high-tech making it easier to exploit. Then due to the over exploiting, prices going up again because those stuffs are more scared.

Ok now talk about in game.

Ecto was really high in prices due to the hard-work of using simple skills to farm. Then more and more peopl know how to farm, over farm will make prices go down. The different between this and real world is that....ectos are unlimited lol. You can get as many as you want. Prices WON'T go up. That's no question. There is no way you can prevent this. UNLESS Anet make ecto become limited. For example, there are only 10 mil ectos in this game. As you use/sell ectos to trader. Others can farm it until the limit hit. Price at this time WILL be stable lol!

the_jos

the_jos

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

Hard Mode Legion [HML]

N/

Quote:
*85% of GW accounts/players have a total of 25k or less on their account.
Is that due to too little income or too much spending?

Quote:
Anyone have better ideas on how to make the upper class spread their wealth around?
And why would we want that?

When talking about game economy we should not be talking about the vanity items.
IRL: not all people can afford a private jet or an Aston Martin car.

We should talk about basic stuff.
IRL: can someone pay his food and house.

Now we have a problem.
People want more than they can afford.
IRL: many people have a debt, for example mortgage, car loan or credit card.
Some are needed (houses are expensive), some are not.

It's not an economy problem, it's a greed problem!

HawkofStorms

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

Some MMOs DO have a very productive and realistic economy.

The most obvious example is Eve Online. They hired a very reknown economist to create and moniter the game's economy system.

Fril Estelin

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

Hey guys, I tried to start a general discusion on this topic here:
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10240342

May be you can salvage a few things and put this discussion on new rails.

I think that MMO economies are very different from real ones because you have the means to control each and every aspect of it, even if players ride the boat and direct the economy in particular directions. Ideally, I think that the aim is to make it fair to a big community of players, most of which don't see it as so important.

MithranArkanere

MithranArkanere

Underworld Spelunker

Join Date: Nov 2006

wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigo

Heraldos de la Llama Oscura [HLO]

E/

Yeah, but along that limitation, there must be a way to keep track of transactions.

An ecto that is 2 years in storage it's like an ecto that do not exist.
So trading item with other character wold increase the 'existence' of the items, but after a time (1day..1year depending on rarity), the items stored would be considered 'abandoned' or 'Hold back' or 'blocked' (like when water do not flow), and a new one would be added.

This would work incredibly good, for example, if you buy something to sell it again for more gold, each trade would decrease the rarity of the item, thus stopping people from doing so, since no one would pay more extra gold for the item, and probably the last one getting it would keep it.

And customization is one of the keys of this.
Get a miniature, destroy it to add it to your account (like hats) and remove it from the market, a new one is added that someone may find an tade or keep again.

Winterclaw

Winterclaw

Wark!!!

Join Date: May 2005

Florida

W/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Siadena
*85% of GW accounts/players have a total of 25k or less on their account.
Yes, but of them, how many have elite armor, bought fancy weapons from others, etc?