Someone check my maths regarding Lucky title

OK, I've been thinking about the lucky title while deciding whether to go AFKing.

SO, following the wiki's lucky title guide, http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Luck_titles_guide

It would, on average take 724 hours to gain the highest tier of the title, and would cost some 2.206.000 gold (second table). The reward for it would be a 12% increase in chance to retain a lockpick.

Now, different chests have different chances to retain a lockpick, but the effect of the title is a constant 12%. So, if we were to estimate the monetary gain of the title, we could multiply the price of a lockpick by 12%, yielding a 180 gold saving per lockpick use.

By the saving, the money invested into getting the title would return by the time the 180 gold gains accumulate up to the 2.206.000 gold. That's 12255 lockpick uses. Take 5 chests per area (ideally), and you need to explore 2451 maps for that.

Worthwhile?


I've only played some 1600 hours of GW in the year I've had it, and it's already getting somewhat stale (best value game ever, but you can only eat so many steaks before you get full), so I'm not bothering

You're forgetting that titles aren't in the game for monetary gain, nor do people go for titles with cash reward in mind. Considering that there's not only the direct cost - the monetary value of getting the title - but also the opportunity cost - the cash lost due to not farming, playing the game normally, power trading, or doing something that results in an influx of money during the time spent AFKing, - the Lucky title becomes an exceptionally poor proposition for someone aiming to gain cash. In fact, it's the perfect description of a "gold sink," or, in conventional terms:

The lottery is a tax imposed on the mathematically inept.

A few points in no particular order:

• Chests (and Lockpicks by extension) and the Lucky/Unlucky titles are both designed as gold sinks (activities which take gold out of the economy).
  
• Don't forget that lucky has multiple levels, and requirements increase exponentially after each level while the positive effect is linear. Looking at the wiki-table you can get half the benifit for 1/10th of the cost. A 6% boost to retain rates at rank 3 lucky can be obtained with only 220k and 72 hours.
  
• This probably doesn't appeal to most people, but there is a benefit to people working on Treasure Hunter. 12,255 picks is a lot, but someone working for Treasure Hunter needs to open 10,000 chests. Doing it with picks and starting with a max (or better yet, rank 4 or 5) lucky title means you'll save money while continuing to boost your lucky.
  
• Although Lockpicks cost 1.5k at the merchant (and I see this is the number you've used), if you are in an Alliance that owns a town you can get them for 1.2k. If you aren't, players who are can usually be found selling them for 1.25k in one of the major towns. Buying at these prices would increase the number of picks before you get a complete ROI.

You might be right for the higher/est tiers, but did u check the lower tiers? I haven't done any calculations, but my guess is that the numbers are much more reasonable.

oh and...
I thought that until i did a course on risk management =P. Apparently theres a price for risk (and rightly so!), and by purchasing a lottery ticket, your placing risk on the seller of the ticket. To compensate for the increased risk to the seller of the ticket, you pay a premium, namely the feeble odds of winning in the long run.

for the max level thats true, however for lower levels its a different story.

example lucky 0-lucky 1
cost 44k.
saving per chest 30
chests required, 1470

lucky 0-lucky 2
cost 88k
saving per chest 60
chests required 1470

lucky 0-lucky 3
cost 220k
saving per chest 90
chests required 2451

lucky 0-lucky 4
cost 441k
saving per chest 120
chests required 3675

0-5
cost 882k
saving 150
chests 5880

0-6
cost 2206
saving 180
chests 12255

However thsi is not necessarily the full story, because teh earlier levels are discounting the older levels.

to see hwether its worth going to teh next level, another table is required

(note that 1 and 2 are the same break even in both tables)

2-3
cost 132.4k
saving 30
chests:4,413

3-4
cost 220k
saving 30
chests 7,333

4-5
cost 441k
saving 30
chests 14,666

5-6
cost 1.4M
saving 30
chests 46,666

Note that the difference between teh two is that the first table takes into account that the first levels will still be saving you money, whereas teh second tells you how many chests need to be opend to make up for that specific level.

for example, opening 2.5k chests after getting to level 3 luvky will make you better off than if youd opened them with 0 luck title, but youd have more money if youd have only gone to rank 2 lucky.

(also note that this analysis ignores teh effect an accountwide maxed title has on otheraspects of the game.)