I am aware that there are many facts and theories regarding drops, droprates, anti-farm code etc. I would like to explain what happens to my monk and get some input from other members of the community.
I believe that the drops for my monk character are "broken" Let me explain: I have solo-farmed just about everything that a monk can, and in the process, have made a fortune. Though as time goes on, I have suspected that the drops of "golds", has gotten rather lackluster. Now, after the last month or so, I'm almost sure that there is something no longer random about them.
I have done a bunch of glacial stone farming. Dual monk style. My brother plays the other monk, and he does virutally zero farming. Every time we go, his rare drops outnumber mine about 3-1.(I have not provided screens, since with nearly 400 stones farmed the amount of screens would be massive.) I also do a bit of Slavers Exile. In my last full run, with Duncan HM, I got 1 diamond, 5 onyx, opened 8 chests all purple, and the prior Duncan HM I earned 2 onyx, aside from the usual diamond and armor remnant.
I enjoy normal gold drop success if I ursan with my ranger, or Tank with my warrior, both of which rarely ever farm. All patterns lead me to believe that something is wrong with the way things drop for my monk.
I realize many will think this is just bad luck, but it's been going on for so long, and the fact that it's better on other characters makes me wonder if A'net penalizes the hardcore farmer, based on the fact that if you go solo only, you never really realize that your drops are horrible, when if you go with dual, or do full party dungeons, you see just about everyone else hauling the golds, while you get zilch.
Help! My monks drops are broken.
Joe L.
masta_yoda
i think its just badluck , all the locked chests i open in eotn are purps for me
Molock
Badluck. Until recently I had the exact same thing happening for all my characters.. then I got an Amestyth Aegis to make things better 
Lady Lozza
Joe,
I go through bad drop days, weeks, and even months on certain characters. There are times when I don't even manage to get blues unless I open chests (and get purples
). To be honest unless it keeps up for 6+ months I'd say it is just luck.
I go through bad drop days, weeks, and even months on certain characters. There are times when I don't even manage to get blues unless I open chests (and get purples
). To be honest unless it keeps up for 6+ months I'd say it is just luck.
Gun Pierson
Welcome to the fascinating world of the solo farmer and Anet's view on it. Study lootscaling. See what's on the LS list and try other ways of farming. Playing with a friend (and a hero) farming through vast unrepeating areas of the game for example. Or go farm gems (ursan way) in DoA, which is another facet of farming Anet rewards.
Anet's view on farming: (long quote in middle of the page)
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...268601&page=44
Anet's view on farming: (long quote in middle of the page)
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...268601&page=44
HawkofStorms
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance
Until you can understand the math in that page, please don't post this stuff.
And when you do understand the math, you'll realize you don't need to post this stuff.
Until you can understand the math in that page, please don't post this stuff.
And when you do understand the math, you'll realize you don't need to post this stuff.
![[Morkai]](/static/static/../Img/avatar144860_1.gif){kind=avatar}
[Morkai]
Loot scaling does not affect Core areas (FoW/UW) or Gold drops.
It's just bad luck i'm afraid, nothing you can do.
It's just bad luck i'm afraid, nothing you can do.
crazybanshee
Yeah it annoys me too. I basically only play 1 character, and on the last 3 slavers full runs EVERY SINGLE CHEST for me was a grape (the only golds I got the entire time came from forge's end chest and duncan end chest) while the other players opened most of the chests for golds. Annoying, yes. I figured it has something to do with either the amount of time I play, or the higher rank in treasure hunter that makes me get purples.
Zaiden
There's one thing you need to know. Do not overfarm. The drops DO gets rarer if you overfarm an area.
xPIMPx
I stealing your drops sorry
cosyfiep
That is when I go and play a different character and let the one with the bad drops have a few days off (and hope that that fixes the problem)....though I have a female monk that always gets bad drops (even the free chests in nf on the FIRST trip were grapes for her)....so she just doesnt play that often (until her 'luck' improves).....
take a few days off that character or do something other than farming---try a mission or something like that and see if that changes your luck....and
good luck ?
take a few days off that character or do something other than farming---try a mission or something like that and see if that changes your luck....and
good luck ?
Splitisoda
At least you got an fortune, I'm outside the Remains of Saljhala trying to see if theres any spare change in the wurms when past people got eaten.
Joe L.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance
Until you can understand the math in that page, please don't post this stuff. And when you do understand the math, you'll realize you don't need to post this stuff. |
To have true variance, then the pattern I am seeing should be ever-present, not progressively worse. To be progressively worse, means some of the base criteria for what does or not drop must be changing, therefore, not random. I guess that's the beauty of "worsening drops" (if) Anet actually did administer some code, is it's impossible to prove.
To address an issue I overlooked and has been brought up, Lately, in the past 5-7 months, I have actually not done much solo-farming at all. Not even an hour a week, so if anything, I would assume my drops would have gotten, if nothing else, a bit better, not the opposite.
Bluefeather
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance
Until you can understand the math in that page, please don't post this stuff. And when you do understand the math, you'll realize you don't need to post this stuff. |
j/k
But i'm not impressed with the link.
It will be better if you can translate the link in english. Are you saying that if I have the same exact group, going to the exact place at exact same time, I will get the exact same drop?
Please help me coz i didn't know that I need to understand math to understand randomness of loots.
Thanks.
R.Shayne
It's a computer luck does not exist, more of a complex logarithm that tries to give the illusion of a random number.
Have you tried farming the same spot in a row - not just glacier stone farming since you only kill sixty (Hard Mode). Have your brother vanquish Mirror of Lyss (600 / Smite) with you and once you completed do it again. Each run should take 45 minutes for a total of 90 minutes.
I would be very curious to see the results of the runs. Not saying I fully understand the game mechanics but it appears that when the mission loads drops are assigned then, not during game play. What I am getting at is that you may just be killing the wrong creatures since you are not completing the map.
Another question may be look at the number of glacial stones, is your brother getting more of them on an average then you?
Have you tried farming the same spot in a row - not just glacier stone farming since you only kill sixty (Hard Mode). Have your brother vanquish Mirror of Lyss (600 / Smite) with you and once you completed do it again. Each run should take 45 minutes for a total of 90 minutes.
I would be very curious to see the results of the runs. Not saying I fully understand the game mechanics but it appears that when the mission loads drops are assigned then, not during game play. What I am getting at is that you may just be killing the wrong creatures since you are not completing the map.
Another question may be look at the number of glacial stones, is your brother getting more of them on an average then you?
MirkoTeran
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Originally Posted by Bluefeather
i didn't know that I need to understand math to understand randomness of loots.
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Bluefeather
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Originally Posted by MirkoTeran
Well, you do. And if you and more people would there wouldn't be a thread about this every second day.
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that's BS.
LOL Good Math Skill = Good Drops; Bad Math Skill = Bad Drops
Bwahahahaha this is the funniest joke i heard in years.
Akolo
thats not what hes saying i didnt read the link (cba with math in the morning) but even i understand that he says stop complaining if you dont know how it works... its RANDOM, not antifarm, not some strange "you-have-been-playing-this-char-too-much-so-we-remove-your-drops". RANDOM :P
strcpy
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Originally Posted by Bluefeather
LOL so u really understand that wiki link?
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Just because you can't follow some math doesn't mean everyone else on the planet also can't do it. The point being that until you even have that basic a level of understanding of what is going on you do not have the background to make an educated assertion about the issue and are simply guessing. Same is true of I look at an airframe and tell a aeronautical engineer his plane will not fly - what the heck do I know about designing and airframe?
Quote:
| And the reason why you got good drops is because you are good at math? |
Of course, I don't particularly expect lack of knowledge to stop people from telling mathematicians how mathematics work - it never has in the past. I'm sure your lack of understanding gives special insight on the matter at hand and you could easily tell that 3 dimensional RANDU sequences fall into 15 2 dimensional planes by noting that your gold drops aren't as good as you expect.
MirkoTeran
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Originally Posted by Bluefeather
LOL so u really understand that wiki link?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bluefeather
And the reason why you got good drops is because you are good at math?
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I could write a bit more but strcpy explained it quite well.
Luminarus
HAHA Suck Din :P
JKS
Dunno why.
JKS
Dunno why.
tmakinen
Hey strcpy, I remember discussing a related issue with you before, namely whether drops are determined at the creation of an instance or at the time of the kill. The evidence by that time was somewhat inconclusive, but just recently I saw this thread which demonstrates pretty well that drops are indeed determined when the instance is created (the only other option being that there would be separate seeds for drops and other random events which doesn't sound likely, and even in that case the drops would be determined if not actually calculated at the creation).
How this relates to the OP, if you suspect that the game is withholding your well deserved loot because ANet has some personal grudge against you, there is an experiment that you can do to (dis)prove your case. Read the linked article about sync farming and do the same with some lucky friend of yours. Record everything that drops and compare results. If the data show that you're in sync but still missing something on the exempt list that your friend got then you have a case. Happy experimenting
How this relates to the OP, if you suspect that the game is withholding your well deserved loot because ANet has some personal grudge against you, there is an experiment that you can do to (dis)prove your case. Read the linked article about sync farming and do the same with some lucky friend of yours. Record everything that drops and compare results. If the data show that you're in sync but still missing something on the exempt list that your friend got then you have a case. Happy experimenting
Joe L.
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Originally Posted by tmakinen
Hey strcpy, I remember discussing a related issue with you before, namely whether drops are determined at the creation of an instance or at the time of the kill. The evidence by that time was somewhat inconclusive, but just recently I saw this thread which demonstrates pretty well that drops are indeed determined when the instance is created (the only other option being that there would be separate seeds for drops and other random events which doesn't sound likely, and even in that case the drops would be determined if not actually calculated at the creation).
How this relates to the OP, if you suspect that the game is withholding your well deserved loot because ANet has some personal grudge against you, there is an experiment that you can do to (dis)prove your case. Read the linked article about sync farming and do the same with some lucky friend of yours. Record everything that drops and compare results. If the data show that you're in sync but still missing something on the exempt list that your friend got then you have a case. Happy experimenting |
On another note, I did not create this thread to cause any kind of argument. I know there is very complex math involved to actually create what drops and when, that is not my issue. My issue is if this actually changes based on how often you happen to farm. The whole "anti-farm" thing is allegedly based on punishing solo-farming, yet I get horrid drops when I go with a full party;At this rate, I may as well solo-grind forever, at least I'd get 1 stupid gold eventually. I believe my impatience is justified, since: 2 Slaver's full runs = 5-6 hrs, and yields nothing but onyx and diamond, with purples from chests. Thanks A-net for making team playing rewarding.
strcpy
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Originally Posted by tmakinen
Hey strcpy, I remember discussing a related issue with you before, namely whether drops are determined at the creation of an instance or at the time of the kill. The evidence by that time was somewhat inconclusive, but just recently I saw this thread which demonstrates pretty well that drops are indeed determined when the instance is created (the only other option being that there would be separate seeds for drops and other random events which doesn't sound likely, and even in that case the drops would be determined if not actually calculated at the creation).
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I don't really know what to think of that at the moment. There is a great deal of evidence that drops are affected by how fast you kill things and it works nearly 100% of the time. However we also have that thread and I don't really see them as lying (though I do not think that they could actually sync their entering a mission to milisecond - some other trigger would be required - I was rather surprised that they had a coarse enough seed that this was possible as that is generally a big no-no).
As such if I happen to jump into that argument now I tend to tell both sides as I see it needs more data/time. Right now my opinion is that there is something to both sides and a third option is the correct one - as to what that is dunno. While possible (just as it is possible I may get hit by a meteor tomorrow) I have a hard time seeing that kill speed has *nothing* to do with it due to the amount of data that shows otherwise. However, it is obvious that a great deal of drops are determined at the creation of an instance.
You will also note that I never said this person drops were *not* degrading, just that his evidence shows no such thing and is perfectly within chance (in fact it is even expected to occur). Anet - the people who actually know all the answers to these questions - says random and they do not degrade drops for any reason. The whole thing about loot being equal between the two characters VERY much shows that what Anet says is correct.
Bluefeather
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Originally Posted by strcpy
Considering that I had quite a number of graduate courses in mathematics (I'm a computer scientist), yes that is pretty simple stuff. You know, someone somewhere had to understand that to write it and it isn't even written to a standard a higher level undergrad college course would accept, let alone someone who actually works with that type of math at a professional level.
Just because you can't follow some math doesn't mean everyone else on the planet also can't do it. The point being that until you even have that basic a level of understanding of what is going on you do not have the background to make an educated assertion about the issue and are simply guessing. Same is true of I look at an airframe and tell a aeronautical engineer his plane will not fly - what the heck do I know about designing and airframe? No, but then since you obviously don't understand what is going on I can see how you wold think so. Better if you point out that PRNG's are not truly random but are deterministic so that variance doesn't count. While you still obviously don't understand the math behind them and are nearly 100% wrong you at least have a very basic understanding of some of the principles involved and you aren't fully 100% incorrect (to note decent PRNG's pass all of these statistical tests and even poor ones do not fail in the way you, and others, are saying they do). Of course, I don't particularly expect lack of knowledge to stop people from telling mathematicians how mathematics work - it never has in the past. I'm sure your lack of understanding gives special insight on the matter at hand and you could easily tell that 3 dimensional RANDU sequences fall into 15 2 dimensional planes by noting that your gold drops aren't as good as you expect. |
The first time I worked on Hard Mode I got a gold drop from the first gargoyle in Ascalon. In my excitement, I went back in to tell people that I got a gold drop from my first kill in HM. Now, i frequent Sardelac Sanitarium to kill that stone-something-boss with "coobble.." or something in his name. It drops gold weapons, gold and sometimes nothing. And I understand why, because it's random.
Off-topic, u said ur a computer scientist. You must have a lot of drops in game. Hahaha i'm still laughing. I think I'm going to visit this thread more often to read funny jokes hahahaha.
Bluefeather
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Originally Posted by MirkoTeran
Actually, I do. I'm a CS graduate so we did have a bit of math.
No, but if you were better at it you would know what you are getting bad drops. I could write a bit more but strcpy explained it quite well. |
CS Graduate also. And thinks that Math knowledge has something to do with good drops.
I'm going home. Too many nerds today.
Inger
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Originally Posted by Bluefeather
And this one, too.
CS Graduate also. And thinks that Math knowledge has something to do with good drops. I'm going home. Too many nerds today. |
They're not saying you have to even remotely understand that page in order to get good drops. Quite clearly its not your lack of understanding of the mathematics that is affecting you but your lack of understanding of the english language.
Basically the underlying message behind posting that page was just to indicate that the drop rate is RANDOM variance is just the mathematical representation of randomness. If you understand the mathematic so much the better, you understand things will be random. If you don't then it doesn't affect your luck at all. The math page was just to indicate things will be random, you don't have to understand math in order to get good or bad drops, its simply an "explanation" or reasoning behind why you can get a string of bad drops or on the other hand a string of good drops.
Davros Uitar
Funny though - you never see the thread that says wow I just got 8 gold drops that run, or the one that says wow my last 12 chests were gold and the picks never broke.
Believe me though - it does happen in the game.
Believe me though - it does happen in the game.
tmakinen
Got five rares out of HM chests with the same pick yesterday, I consider that pretty good (about 0.3% chance). On the NM side my luckiest pick has so far been 14 chests opened (0.25% chance), not all rares, though.
Also, I'd be interested to find out exactly how coarse the instance seed is. 10 ms, 100 ms, 1 s? Note to self, should do some experiments
Also, I'd be interested to find out exactly how coarse the instance seed is. 10 ms, 100 ms, 1 s? Note to self, should do some experiments
Perkunas
Everyone can argue back and forth about lootscaling, about the mathmatics behind it, I don't care. If lootscaling did not change the drops rates of gold items, then how come "pre-lootscaling" - 60 chests opened, 43 items ID'ed; "post lootscaling" - 128 chests opened, 57 items Id'ed? Please explain that with your math.
This is on the same character.
This is on the same character.
Esan
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Originally Posted by Perkunas
Please explain that with your math.
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Joe L.
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Originally Posted by Davros Uitar
Funny though - you never see the thread that says wow I just got 8 gold drops that run, or the one that says wow my last 12 chests were gold and the picks never broke.
Believe me though - it does happen in the game. |
I had always figured it was just a bit of bad juju, seeing how my monk used to be a farmathon, but as months go by, and the horrid luck continues in dual-farm, and fulll party scenarios, you can see how the scepticism would sink in. I guess the biggest problem is, that since the drops are so bad, I'm not motivated at all to keep farming other spots with my monk to try out different theories, when it would just waste time that I could spend using any of my other characters and get many more rares.
P.S. on the one screen, my first elemental sword ever.
kranius
What i think is funny, it's all the posts talking about the randomness of drops. Because GW is a program, thus coded by some people. But, randomness can't be coded, otherwise it wouldn't be randomness... If it was coded, with some algorithm, then the coder should get Fiels medal, because none of the greatest mathematicians could never "mathematicize" it.
So i think most of the people who talked about drops randomness with some mathematical backup are just wrong.
Sorry if i am not clear or made mistakes, English isn't my first language.
So i think most of the people who talked about drops randomness with some mathematical backup are just wrong.
Sorry if i am not clear or made mistakes, English isn't my first language.
ischuros
Ok, to settle this question once and for all, an experiment. First, we run a farm, a one man, raptors for instance, with four or so different people using the same build, same place time etc., trying to take out all variables. Then, two of them continue farming the area for an hour, or so, after that all for do another run, comparing their drops to the first run.
We do this over a couple of days, and see how it turns out. Since it dosn't take into account previous farming time, only relative to the first 'instance' it should be free of any bias due to the 'anti-farming code' if it exisits.
We do this over a couple of days, and see how it turns out. Since it dosn't take into account previous farming time, only relative to the first 'instance' it should be free of any bias due to the 'anti-farming code' if it exisits.
Ekelon
To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if they still have a little bit of the farm code in there... It is funny how easily convinced we are that they took farm code off by merely announcing it!
creelie
You've just had a good run of bad luck buddy. Don't catch any superstitions while you're swimming in the ocean of tears here.
HawkofStorms
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Originally Posted by Joe L.
To have true variance, then the pattern I am seeing should be ever-present, not progressively worse. To be progressively worse, means some of the base criteria for what does or not drop must be changing, therefore, not random. I guess that's the beauty of "worsening drops" (if) Anet actually did administer some code, is it's impossible to prove.
To address an issue I overlooked and has been brought up, Lately, in the past 5-7 months, I have actually not done much solo-farming at all. Not even an hour a week, so if anything, I would assume my drops would have gotten, if nothing else, a bit better, not the opposite. |
You think you are having progressively worse bad luck, but have no actual data to back up your claims.
Dallcingi
Bad luck.. i got all purple drops in gwen during the preview =p
manitoba1073
Yeap there definitely is still AFC in place not.
look in the chat log for how long I was playing. those drops were right afterwards. And yes it was straight farming with very few breaks.
look in the chat log for how long I was playing. those drops were right afterwards. And yes it was straight farming with very few breaks.
strcpy
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Originally Posted by Bluefeather
Someone told me that if a person uses so many jargons, do not listen because his real intention is not to be understood. And I ask why, he said, because he doesnt understand what he is saying.
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I'm not the one who couldn't understand the link so this somehow makes me stupid?
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Originally Posted by kranius
What i think is funny, it's all the posts talking about the randomness of drops. Because GW is a program, thus coded by some people. But, randomness can't be coded, otherwise it wouldn't be randomness... If it was coded, with some algorithm, then the coder should get Fiels medal, because none of the greatest mathematicians could never "mathematicize" it.
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Further even the bad ones do not exhibit the type of behavior that is complained about. Even Randu would just have drops that were never chosen and some that were chosen consistently more often than they should. Even then it took many thousands of samples viewed at a single time before the pattern was found.
There are fairly fast cryptographically secure pseudo random number generators out there, even some that are commonly used in games are fairly close (and if those guys aren't finding patterns then, again, for all intents and purposes they *are* random). In fact, there are VERY VERY few natural occurrences that are as statistically random as the decent PRNG's and they are all very expensive (flipping a coin is horrid, MUCH worse than even the majority of poor PRNG's out there).