Armbrace vs Coffer of wispers

Not sure if this is the right place to post this thread...

Anyhow I was wondering what you guys though about this. So you need 60 gems to get an armbrace or 15 coffers. So in 15 coffers what are the odds of getting a mini malyx or an armbrace? is it like a ridiculously low percentage, like one out of a thousand chance? Or are the odds pretty good? just wondering because if you only got one armbrace or mini + the other items from the coffers, that just seems like a better deal than just one armbrace for your gems.

it small around 1.6% for each http://guildwars.wikia.com/wiki/Drop...er_of_Whispers

So from 1000 coffers you would get 16 arms/minis and 1000 coffers ~12000k
16arms / minis ~4500k

lol ok pretty low chance... much safer to just trade in the gems for an armbrace.

Thanks for the info

The first time I bought a coffer I got a mini mallyx. I thought I was super lucky so I bought a bunch more. Lots of gold wasted I can say without a doubt do not buy/open coffers.

Before

After

Just buy what you want with the money from gems/gem sets or trade for armbrace. Unless you like gambling...As simples as that

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If you are only after the armbrace then you are generally better off trading the gems in directly for an armbrace.

At 1.6% success rate, 15 sets of gems would give you about 21.5% change of getting at least 1 armbrace, or 78.5% chance of not getting one at all.

There is some value in the other items, so the value is not dismal, and if you like gambling have some fun, but the house will likely win.

Doing a thorough value analysis based on the probability given in the above link and some assumed value of coffer rewards the value of the coffers overall is not terrible. For example given that a gem set cost 12K and some current prices of gems, collectables, etc., the reward value offered by the coffer is pretty close to the cost of the gems, 12K x 15 = 180K. The value of big ticket items, such as the Mallyx Mini and the Armbrace and to a lesser extent the gems, will influence this value relationship.

Specific Case:
Reward 15 Value
5 Margonite Gemstones: 24/315 | ~ 7.6% 15
5 Torment Gemstones: 21/315 | ~ 6.7% 10
5 Titan Gemstones: 26/315 | ~ 8.3% 25
5 Stygian Gemstones: 18/315 | ~ 5.7% 10
1 Armbrace of Truth: 5/315 | ~ 1.6% 160
5 Keys: 11/315 | ~ 3.5% 6.25
5 Diamonds: 8/315 | ~ 2.5% 5
5 Elixirs of Valor: 88/315 | ~27.9% 0.25
1 Mallyx Mini: 5/315 | ~ 1.6% 175
5 Rubies: 9/315 | ~ 2.9% 15
5 Sapphires: 19/315 | ~ 6.0% 15
5 Scroll of the Lightbringer: 77/315 | ~24.4% 0.25
1 Primeval Armor Remnant 21/315 | ~ 6.7% 5

Gem Set Cost 12k x 15 = 180k

The Expected Value of 15 Coffers from this would yield 179.4K. So on average if you bought and sold everything for the values I showed, you would come close to break even on average.

i've opened roughly 40 coffers. got 1 mallyx, no armbrace, tons of elixers of valor (but i use them for vanquishing and such so i don't mind).

For roughly 40 coffers, you would have about a 50:50 chance of getting at least 1 armbrace (47.5% given p=1.6%).

In the time since the coffers of whispers have came out I've opened well over a stack myself and only have gotten one mallyx and two armbraces thus far, I've semi broken even I'd say on gems, but, it's totally not worth it to sink money or hard earned gems into it imo, i've only traded in ones that i was rewarded for completion by zhellix, and thats what made it semi worth it in the end.

i was extremely lucky in 7 coffers i got a mini mallyyx and an armbrace

I'd have to agree, coffers are a waste of money. Used over 20 sets, no armbraces or mallyx. But I have 35 Exlixors of Valor! Oh wait, they're useless junk, since EotN. Oh well...