I know lots of people hate speculation threads, but at least it's something to talk about whilst waiting for more information. This thread's for people to give their opinions on how far GW2 is in development, based on the information we have so far. Here's my thoughts:
I believe that the game engine itself is now essentially complete. I reckon it looks impressive but ArenaNet are having major problems with its performance currently. They've probably been testing and tweaking the new engine for a month or two now, with only slight improvements in most cases. So, a few days ago, they finally decided to go ahead with licensing Umbra to boost performance dramatically. Over the next few weeks they'll be getting Umbra to work with the new engine.
I also think this means progress has been made on some game maps/areas. After all, why license performance-boosting technology without testing any maps with the current engine and seeing how they perform? There would be little point buying this technology beforehand, only to find that the engine works great without occlusion culling. As I say, progress has probably made on some maps - maybe one or two have been made so far, and this was where the performance problems came in. As there is still a very long way to go in terms of maps, this will take until about next Autumn to be completed.
The game engine's completion might also mean the server-side technology is progressing well. Switches of servers might be a reason for the current lag in GW1, as the newest and fastest servers are being prepared, tweaked and tested for GW2.
In terms of lore, the main story is almost certainly complete now. After all, the team knew what they wanted to do by the beginning of GW:EN's development, which began around the beginning of 2007 or earlier. The biggest task now is writing lore for the GW2 universe - side quests, characters etc. This is probably being done alongside the GW2 novels to save time, but will still take at least until next summer.
Some essential parts of the game mechanics are now by and large in place, confirming the main game features mentioned when GW2 was first announced. This part probably requires the most work out of all. I suspect the professions/races have been decided now, with the first skills being fleshed out in terms of their functions. Again, this is only the start of the skill mechanics, and the team are nowhere near balancing them. I bet this won't happen until the first betas next year.
Overall, based on my current (founded and unfounded speculation), I reckon more artwork will be revealed some time during the winter. Next, the first screenshots will be here next spring with more game information, followed by a slow but steady trickle of news/information/media over the summer into late autumn '09. Then, around November/December, the betas will begin, where players will begin to balance the game's skills through feedback, as well as try out a few quests, even missions. This will follow through into early 2010, with the last betas in March or so. Then the final game will be finished by late May, with the release in summer 2010. This is what the team meant by "closer to the release" in terms of betas.
Why do I think this? Well, ArenaNet have shown they can produce entire chapters incredibly quickly, and I don't think GW2 will take much longer than a year and a half more of development.
m
