Jade/Amber Sold Out

Zinger314

Zinger314

Debbie Downer

Join Date: May 2006

N/Me

So, can someone with some economic knowledge explain why the heck people would be buying Jade/Amber NOW?

Sure, the faction to buy them increased, but the amount of faction you get also increased...

A11Eur0

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Apr 2005

W/

Because I highly doubt people are going to be gaining 5x the amount of faction in order to pay 5x the amount of faction to get the amber. Amber's going to be harder to get. It's a fact.

What they should also have done is increase the chance of getting amber chunks as drops and salvage from amber weapons.

Jadeite can be substituted where necessary as I'm currently in a kurzick guild and that's what I think about.

Jessyi

Jessyi

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Dec 2005

Mo/

I'm not sure it increased enough to compensate. I guess others aren't either.

At any rate, I had 4 stacks saved up so by all means please inflate the price beyond reason. I could use the extra money.

Nightow

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

Need jadeite to get a hold of one of those Jadeite Summoning Stones.
They summon a Luxon Turtle for epic pew pew pew'ing. :3

Gonna have to get a hold of a few for some Jade Sea Vanq.'ing this weekend.

turbo234

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2006

WI

Mo/

the summoning stones in the deep and urgoz require jade/amber respectively. with them just being released people are curious at how they look and think theyre cool and want to craft them. that would be my guess and it sounds very reasonable.

Nightow

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

Quote:
Originally Posted by turbo234 View Post
the summoning stones in the deep and urgoz require jade/amber respectively. with them just being released people are curious at how they look and think theyre cool and want to craft them. that would be my guess and it sounds very reasonable.
Speaking of which, could someone post what skills they each use? Still not sure if the Siege Turtle actually uses the Siege Attack skill or not.

A11Eur0

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Apr 2005

W/

Nah, it takes more than a few jade/amber per person to sell out the crafter. People hoarded because of the increase in faction required to buy. I was about to do that but wasn't sure of the price once it comes back, and didnt want to drop coin on something so stupid. I'll just farm amber when I need more kurzick armor.

Luminarus

Luminarus

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Aug 2007

Sydney, Australia

Haze of Light [pure]

R/

Because people think in the short run... crap for now I cant get as much faction as I used to, therefore price will go up so must stock up. When there are 1/2 a million idiots like this supply goes poof, and demand goes hi, so trader runs out. Give it a month and everyone will sell it back feeling like a tard for wasting their money.

Darkobra

Darkobra

Forge Runner

Join Date: Aug 2006

Scotland

Type like an idiot, I'll treat you like an idiot

E/Me

Easy money for the packrats. Besides, I doubt prices will go up. You get 1000 faction for losing in Fort Aspenwood on Luxon side, plus the faction you get for killing during that time. It's so much easier to get faction now that the jade will still be pouring in.

Kook~NBK~

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Mar 2005

A little chalet outside Drok's

Natural Born Killaz

I just finished an Urzog's run and there was a bunch of amber dropping there. I got 3 from drops & 2 from the end chest. I think the hoarders might end up disappointed if the dorp rate for it has increased in other areas.

Shadowmoon

Shadowmoon

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jun 2006

N/A

N/

Did anyone care to think that Anet just remove the stackpile to maybe increase the value of them? It funny they magically sold out right after the update.

lord_shar

lord_shar

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jul 2005

near SF, CA

I just sold a jaedite stack to a merchant for 25k. It's not like there will be a shortage any time soon lol...

Shadowmere

Shadowmere

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2007

The Grim Squeakers [REAP]

N/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowmoon View Post
Did anyone care to think that Anet just remove the stackpile to maybe increase the value of them? It funny they magically sold out right after the update.
Yeah I find it a little hard to believe that all the jade/amber sitting in all the traders could get bought out within the first hour of the update being released. But if faction really is that easy to get these days the price shouldn't be too effected. The whole faction update confused me a fair bit, seems the whole point of all that faction tweaking was just to make the alliegence titles easier to get, that and to finally kill off FFF.

Windf0rce

Windf0rce

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2007

So Jade/Amber now cost 5k, does anyone if they count doubled faction towards the title now, or not?

Shasgaliel

Shasgaliel

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Apr 2008

[bomb]

so they are harder to get now and they have more uses - that is the perfect reason for inflation. I do not think adding them to end chests in Urgoz/Deep will increase their influx on the market.

Yawgmoth

Yawgmoth

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Apr 2005

Anet did the right thing but 2 years too late. Amber and Jade should have costed more from the beginning (at least 2k faction). This move was well thought of and shows they sometimes care about the game economy. I was pleasantly surprised.

And people... People always go crazy, minor game changes have caused panic on the market many many times. Remember when some changes to UW or farming happened, ectos always had a short high spike from 8k to 14k+ then it went back after mere hours.

This time people went crazy with amber/jade but not only that...

...they also sold a lot of Ectos to trader! When people were buying amber/jade I was buying Ectos at 3,600ea from trader

But what surprised me more was that *Monstrous Eyes* sold out,
For all those years they were sold to trader, had no real use for people to buy them, and now disappeared as fast as amber.
This suggests the trader has a max capability and selling him more doesn't increase it past that point. Can anybody estimate how many EyEs were bought that day??
Oh, and anybody remembers Eyes spiking up to 4k just before Factions release? That was lulz.

Shasgaliel

Shasgaliel

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Apr 2008

[bomb]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yawgmoth View Post

But what surprised me more was that *Monstrous Eyes* sold out,
For all those years they were sold to trader, had no real use for people to buy them, and now disappeared as fast as amber.
This suggests the trader has a max capability and selling him more doesn't increase it past that point. Can anybody estimate how many EyEs were bought that day??
Oh, and anybody remembers Eyes spiking up to 4k just before Factions release? That was lulz.
I think they will go down as fast as they went up since there is no really good use for them. I just wonder why the hell someone would sell ectos and buy eyes... I think there is also a sheep effect. Price go down a bit people start selling cause they are afraid to lose thus dropping price even more same with increasing it. I guess even slight increase in the price of eyes might have had this sheep effect.


EDIT: I have also suspicion that it is very easy to manipulate the prices. The prices might be different for different players as well (I saw a small differences a few times but I am not sure why it is like this, maybe lag issues)


Regarding the price estimate: The price at the beginning increases by 10 then by 100. Unfortunately I do not know the amounts needed for every increase. They may even be different on each step. I would risk to say that every 100 units will move the price by 10 or 100 depending on its initial level. However I might be totally wrong here. I would need to have a deeper look at the prices and play a bit with selling, buying large amounts.

Carboplatin

Carboplatin

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jul 2005

[PIG]

W/A

Amber drop like flies in Urgoz now.

Did a HM run and walked out with 8 ambers last night.

Riot Narita

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Apr 2007

Been checking out the new Summoning Stones... and needed some Amber for the one from the Urgoz outpost... and found that the price had already crashed (if indeed it had gone up to several K's, I didn't see that). I bought some for a little over 300each.

Monstrous Eyes are needed for the Summoning Stones from the Deep outpost (Turtle!) and from EotN outpost (Chitinous). I guess that's why they're sold out. I guess I'll have to wait to try those ones.

Evil Neato

Evil Neato

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2008

nO, MS, YAY, vOR, EnS

W/A

Ah, what a bad time to have made a new Warrior and want a new 15k kurz set. Fun fun fun.

Quaker

Quaker

Hell's Protector

Join Date: Aug 2005

Canada

Brothers Disgruntled

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zinger314 View Post
So, can someone with some economic knowledge explain why the heck people would be buying Jade/Amber NOW?.
Well, in my case, when I logged in, GW kept telling me that it owed me X amount of faction, but I had to get rid of some first. So I used up the faction by getting a bunch of Amber, to get rid of the message.
I would assume that a lot of people were doing the same. Amber & Jadeite may be sold out at the trader, but there's lots of it around for sale.

Evil Neato

Evil Neato

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2008

nO, MS, YAY, vOR, EnS

W/A

I never get amber/jade from the allegiance guys, I was pretty upset that I had like 30k of each and had to lose an entire 30k of one allegiance's faction simply because the other was a little higher and the NPC's called me scum and told me to get away...

30k... So much allegiance faction to lose just like that... They should have let us re-do the missions for the "first-time" faction bonus. The way it was done is simply horrible.

Nightow

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

Just found out that the summoned turtles have their Siege Attack skill. It only does 80 aoe dmg but it's still alright. It has the firing range of a flatbow and sens like it would last it's full duration pretty easily.

[DE]

[DE]

Hugs and Kisses

Join Date: Oct 2005

Scars Meadows

Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil Neato View Post
Ah, what a bad time to have made a new Warrior and want a new 15k kurz set. Fun fun fun.
Hah, I feel your pain. I was planning on rushing my new one to Vasburg this weekend. Guess I'll have to figure out what to do for now instead.

Flossie

Flossie

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2007

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil Neato View Post
I never get amber/jade from the allegiance guys, I was pretty upset that I had like 30k of each and had to lose an entire 30k of one allegiance's faction simply because the other was a little higher and the NPC's called me scum and told me to get away...

30k... So much allegiance faction to lose just like that... They should have let us re-do the missions for the "first-time" faction bonus. The way it was done is simply horrible.
See it not as losing 30k of the faction you wanted, more gaining 30k faction you didn't. Before the update you didn't have the faction, now you don't have the faction. You gained some amber/jade. This is a gain, not a loss.

nkuvu

nkuvu

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Dec 2005

Quote:
Originally Posted by Windf0rce View Post
So Jade/Amber now cost 5k, does anyone if they count doubled faction towards the title now, or not?
No, it's still 1:1. Spend 5000 faction to get amber/jade, get 5000 points in the Kurzick/Luxon title.

meecham

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Apr 2006

Another reason is a lot of people like me that switched guilds and faction allegiances had already started working on one side or the other. Since we can't turn in the faction we want within our own guild, next easiest way to continue working on the faction line we already have points in is to trade it for jade or amber.

Shadowmere

Shadowmere

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2007

The Grim Squeakers [REAP]

N/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil Neato View Post
Ah, what a bad time to have made a new Warrior and want a new 15k kurz set. Fun fun fun.
One of my guildies is in the exact same position, few things more frustrating than finding the armor you were going after is now virtually inaccessable/far more expensive.

I think it's a bit silly that the jade/amber is now more expensive AND there's new sinks for it. Great way to screw over those who wanted luxon/kurz armor (even the non-elite versions are gonna be pricey as heck).

Traveller

Traveller

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2005

Finland

League of Extraordinary Explorers [LOST] (my one man guild)

Me/

The jade shortage screwed my armor purchasing plans. No one seems to be selling jade or amber. 5000 faction a pop seems kinda steep as well.

Hyper Cutter

Hyper Cutter

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jun 2006

Knights of the White Eye [HINA]

Good thing I bought my monk her 15k Luxon on Wednesday (and the jade for it long before that)...

HawkofStorms

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

The stuff still hasn't really increased in value by 5 times. Amber is still going for only ~300g buying at the merchant (when he's not sold out).

It will actually earn you MORE money now buy just buying 5 passage scrolls for 1k faction(worth 100g each) and merchanting them then buying 1 amber or 1 jade for 5k faction. Despite a short term spike, amber and jade are NOT going to increase in price over the long term.

Grunntar

Grunntar

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowmere View Post
I think it's a bit silly that the jade/amber is now more expensive AND there's new sinks for it.
Umm, those are related. Jade/amber is now more expensive *because* there are additional sinks for them... People wanted to get the summoning stones, and if you don't have the materials, you have to buy them.

Technically, I think that it's called a "market economy." Supply, demand, and that whole thing...

Nessar

Nessar

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2008

West Siiiiiiiiiiiiiide

Gwen Has A Thing For [Pyre]

There goes my plans for 1k kurz >> Owell, might as well a few weeks till amber is back in market >>

Gah damn amber costing 5k kurz faction ><

Yawgmoth

Yawgmoth

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Apr 2005

The traders FAIL miserably at properely adjusting the price to supply and demand.

If the trader keeps getting bought out he should increase the price more, to the point of balance between supply and demand. The prices will be properely balanced at trader if the same state will remain for a few WEEKS, then we will see it balanced. Now the price is clearly too low - the trader remains completely bought out (or has 1-3 pieces to be bought in next 10 seconds).

It was always a problem when traders got bought out of an item. Street prices were getting much higher than the trader was selling for when bought out. Just think of the fairly recent example of Superior Shadow Arts runes - when imba solo UW farm got most popular trader was sold out of those runes and when he had one it was waay below market price. It took him at least a week to rise his price to the level where he was able to maintain some in stock but still the price was too low about 4k then... it kept slowly rising up to where it stopped and remains today = balanced at 7k.
I expect to see Ambers/Jadeites get to 450-500g range in 2 weeks time.

HawkofStorms

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yawgmoth View Post
The traders FAIL miserably at properely adjusting the price to supply and demand.

If the trader keeps getting bought out he should increase the price more, to the point of balance between supply and demand. The prices will be properely balanced at trader if the same state will remain for a few WEEKS, then we will see it balanced. Now the price is clearly too low - the trader remains completely bought out (or has 1-3 pieces to be bought in next 10 seconds).

It was always a problem when traders got bought out of an item. Street prices were getting much higher than the trader was selling for when bought out. Just think of the fairly recent example of Superior Shadow Arts runes - when imba solo UW farm got most popular trader was sold out of those runes and when he had one it was waay below market price. It took him at least a week to rise his price to the level where he was able to maintain some in stock but still the price was too low about 4k then... it kept slowly rising up to where it stopped and remains today = balanced at 7k.
I expect to see Ambers/Jadeites get to 450-500g range in 2 weeks time.
Wrong. The trader price is right where it should be. Just because there are some people trying to run profitering, doesn't mean the demand has increased by the same amount. Traders have a certain "lag time" between price hikes to prevent abusivie trading pratices from happening. They are this game's FIC. If traders were more suspect to purchases, people could intentionally corner the markets (ie, get 100 rich people together on guru to start buying up.... linen, and then the price would spike up to like 2k a piece). Traders function as they do now to specifically to prevent that. Deregulation to a true supply and demand system often leads to abusive trade pratices and an eventual bust, just look at the RL US economy.

Lyynyyrd

Lyynyyrd

Banned

Join Date: Jun 2008

Aussie Trolling Crew - Spah!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zinger314 View Post
So, can someone with some economic knowledge explain why the heck people would be buying Jade/Amber NOW?

Sure, the faction to buy them increased, but the amount of faction you get also increased...

Cause for the first time in a lllllllllooooooonggggggggggg while the demand for these items has increased.

ockwell

ockwell

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2006

[ITIL]

Set aside factors such as how much ppl will like the new summoned siege turtles or juggernauts.

The passage scrolls to urgoz/deep cost 100 gold each at merch guaranteed, 1k factions each to redeem. So by redeeming 5k factions for amber/jadeite, you missed out an "opportunity" to earn a guaranteed 500 gold.

From economic perspective, nobody is going to spend 5k factions for amber/jade, then sell it for less than 500 gold. Because 500 gold is guaranteed from scrolls.
And if you want amber or jade, and it costs you less than 500 gold at trader (assuming available stock), you're not gonna redeem either. You would rather get 500 gold and buy amber/jade from trader at 360 gold for example.

So while they are still priced at below 500'ish, nobody is "supplying", all the ambers and jades coming into the system are gonna come from drops. Sure drops are plenty in urgoz and the deep, but it will never beat redeemed factions from HFFF/AB etc.

On the other hand, ppl are buying all they can from trader, until the price hits 500'ish.

Zinger314

Zinger314

Debbie Downer

Join Date: May 2006

N/Me

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lyynyyrd View Post
Cause for the first time in a lllllllllooooooonggggggggggg while the demand for these items has increased.
Um. No. Demand hasn't changed at all: The same number of people will want Kurzick/Luxon armor as before.

Lyynyyrd

Lyynyyrd

Banned

Join Date: Jun 2008

Aussie Trolling Crew - Spah!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zinger314 View Post
Um. No. Demand hasn't changed at all: The same number of people will want Kurzick/Luxon armor as before.
And many people will also be interested in the Summoning Stones which now are the only other item to require the materials.


Demand for Jade/Amber for Lux/Kurz armor stays the same, demand for Jade/Amber for Summoning Stones increases, Demand for armor + Demand for Summing Stones > Demand for Armor.

HawkofStorms

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lyynyyrd View Post
And many people will also be interested in the Summoning Stones which now are the only other item to require the materials.


Demand for Jade/Amber for Lux/Kurz armor stays the same, demand for Jade/Amber for Summoning Stones increases, Demand for armor + Demand for Summing Stones > Demand for Armor.
a) The demand for summoning stones won't be that much, because if jade or amber ever get too expensive, people will just buy one of the other 5 summoning stones that are cheaper
b) The "supply" that exists only counts the stuff that was sold to the merchant. People who have hoarded hundreds of amber or jade through years of playing aren't taken into affect by the traders. This "hidden supply" are enough to counterbalance the slight increase in demand to keep prices from jumping too much.