Hey all,
I can see from a certain standpoint, that 5000 balth faction = 5 normal skills = ~5k = zkey. But with the everlasting tonics from the zchest repeating themselves in a few months, and constant flux of players finding out about xunlai predictions, will it make any difference?
Do you think the price of ZKeys will remain relatively stable over 2009?
future price of ZKeys
dr love
Lishy
It will only if players say it will.
Players control economy. And player's opinions spread other opinions.
Perhaps if this thread wasn't brought up, it wouldn't of been questioned and would stay at 5k.
Players control economy. And player's opinions spread other opinions.
Perhaps if this thread wasn't brought up, it wouldn't of been questioned and would stay at 5k.
daraaksii
It's hard to sell for 5k, but people will use it as a stable trading item all time I guess.
A11Eur0
I think the high supply is being controlled well by the high demand and usage of these keys. Then again I'd like to see the cost of the keys fall to make the cost of the title a little less exorbitant.
VanDamselx
Now I haven't played this game in months, but last I played no one would buy keys for 5k. They were always going for around 2.5-3.5k (sometimes cheaper if you were lucky). Did the price go back up?
Issac
Were you here for the tonics and title and junk :S?
Shursh
the prices will most likely spike in the last month (or two) of new release tonics, since general opinion will be that ANET saved the best tonic for last...max i can see them going for is ~6k/ea. then they will prolly drop to ~4-4.5k.
honestly, over the past few months people have become more accustomed to trading in zkeys, so i don't see them fluctuating too much since they will likely still be used as currency.
honestly, over the past few months people have become more accustomed to trading in zkeys, so i don't see them fluctuating too much since they will likely still be used as currency.
VanDamselx
I think just for the start of those coming.
It's kinda difficult for me right now because I have a Mac, and therefore can't play GW. I have "obtained" a copy of Parallels and am now trying to get a Windows operating system. I want to get into GW again, though. I miss it
It's kinda difficult for me right now because I have a Mac, and therefore can't play GW. I have "obtained" a copy of Parallels and am now trying to get a Windows operating system. I want to get into GW again, though. I miss it
makosi
People are also buying cheap Prophecies and Factions accounts for the free Keys every month through XTH. It's a pretty big monthly influx when some people have over 10 accounts.
Sir Skullcrasher
I don't know, for me I think the price will stay around the 4.5k to 5k range for a while. Kind of like ectos and shards pricing, it keep changing but never changed too drastically.
Althought if there was a rare tonic out there and the droprate is really small compare with other. The price per keys could go up since the demand goes up. I take it that a-net is releasing new tonic every month or are they going to repeat after a while?
Althought if there was a rare tonic out there and the droprate is really small compare with other. The price per keys could go up since the demand goes up. I take it that a-net is releasing new tonic every month or are they going to repeat after a while?
dr love
http://www.guildwars.com/competitive...ishencalendar/
come May i'm pretty sure it goes back to phantasmal, which most still say is the best monthly tonic
come May i'm pretty sure it goes back to phantasmal, which most still say is the best monthly tonic
belladonna shylock
I think this post is using "The Sky is falling" mind set. First, we just got done w/ wintersday.
Wintersday = lots of people going for gamer title. A LOT OF ZKEYS in market.
MAT = Multiple accounts doing predictions makes LOTS OF ZKEYS in market.
PVP Weekends = LOTS OF Balth farming. A LOT OF ZKEYS on the market.
The beginning of each month zkeys are low due to supply, then when the tonic comes out, sometimes it goes up, but not often due to the supply. Towards the middle of the month keys go back to the 5K range. Why? because everyone buying at 4.5k will resell at 5k. It only takes one or two people to control the zkey market. If you have enough gold, you can create a false shortage of keys by buying them up. The price will more than likely rise.
Wintersday = lots of people going for gamer title. A LOT OF ZKEYS in market.
MAT = Multiple accounts doing predictions makes LOTS OF ZKEYS in market.
PVP Weekends = LOTS OF Balth farming. A LOT OF ZKEYS on the market.
The beginning of each month zkeys are low due to supply, then when the tonic comes out, sometimes it goes up, but not often due to the supply. Towards the middle of the month keys go back to the 5K range. Why? because everyone buying at 4.5k will resell at 5k. It only takes one or two people to control the zkey market. If you have enough gold, you can create a false shortage of keys by buying them up. The price will more than likely rise.
Konig Des Todes
The price increased when the title was introduced, before it was about 2.5k to 3k. Once most people who want the title get it maxed or at least to the rank they want, then it will start going down. However it will not go down by much as people want to use ZKeys like Ectos are used, as a means to bypass the 100k trading limit.
As such, it will probably stay in the 4k-5k area, just decreasing to about 4.2k to 4.5k instead of being 4.7k to 5k.
As such, it will probably stay in the 4k-5k area, just decreasing to about 4.2k to 4.5k instead of being 4.7k to 5k.
masterjer1
Is it set in stone that the tonics will repeat? As for Zkey prices, I see anywhere from being bought at 4.5k to 5.3k, with 4.8k being the main as of lately.
Shadowspawn X
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dbulger
Hey all,
Do you think the price of ZKeys will remain relatively stable over 2009? |
HawkofStorms
Agreed with Belladonna.
A LOT of people where playing snowball arena during wintersday. The price drop we see over the past few weeks is due to the oversupply of faction that was spent on zkeys.
Edit: @Shadowspawn. What "effect" on the economy. Z-keys just transfer money from one group of individuals to another. It does not "create" weath (like money droping on the ground) or "remove" it (ie, buying things from merchants). It has very minimal inflation/deflation effects.
A LOT of people where playing snowball arena during wintersday. The price drop we see over the past few weeks is due to the oversupply of faction that was spent on zkeys.
Edit: @Shadowspawn. What "effect" on the economy. Z-keys just transfer money from one group of individuals to another. It does not "create" weath (like money droping on the ground) or "remove" it (ie, buying things from merchants). It has very minimal inflation/deflation effects.
unkleanone
Zkeys will stay stable at 5k as long as people continue to refuse to sell lower and people refuse to buy higher. If too many people start to try and undercut others to sell their keys faster the price will fall. This goes the other way too if enough people begin to sell keys at a higher price the price will rise.
Bobulation
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
Agreed with Belladonna.
A LOT of people where playing snowball arena during wintersday. The price drop we see over the past few weeks is due to the oversupply of faction that was spent on zkeys. Edit: @Shadowspawn. What "effect" on the economy. Z-keys just transfer money from one group of individuals to another. It does not "create" weath (like money droping on the ground) or "remove" it (ie, buying things from merchants). It has very minimal inflation/deflation effects. |
....Accept for the many, many 1000's+ being "created" per month.....
Master Knightfall
Quote:
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Originally Posted by VanDamselx
Now I haven't played this game in months, but last I played no one would buy keys for 5k. They were always going for around 2.5-3.5k (sometimes cheaper if you were lucky). Did the price go back up?
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crazybanshee
Basically, zkeys are a better currency option than ecto, and will probably remain pretty stable in price. With ecto, once you bought fow, chaos gloves, and whatever other crap you want, the stacks just sit in inventory. There's no real way to remove them from 'circulation' except to get more armor for your mule and secondary chars. And after that... nothing. Zkeys are constantly being removed from 'circulation' by being used on the zchest. Even if you're not using them, other people are. There's a constant steady demand for them - yes the price will go up or down a couple hundred gold depending on if there's been a double balth weekend or xunlai handout, but in general it'll stay the same.
Shadowspawn X
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
Edit: @Shadowspawn. What "effect" on the economy. Z-keys just transfer money from one group of individuals to another. It does not "create" weath (like money droping on the ground) or "remove" it (ie, buying things from merchants). It has very minimal inflation/deflation effects.
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The tonic of the month is for sale for 100e/z. The buyer gets his payoff from his XH predictions and coughs up 100 zkeys for the tonic. Now it should be clear to you that no gold is being transfered around period. The currency is being created from thin air and being inserted directly into the game.
Edit:
I nearly forgot to address your question on the effect this is having on the economy. Its called hyper-inflation. The economy is so bad that gold is losing its worth. The buying power of actual gold and plat is so low that the last 4 or 5 trades I have done (I'm not a big trader) people won't accept gold. Thats right. People don't want 100k +30e/z they only want 50e/z these days because everyone has a full storage of gold which has such low value its only worth a couple of everlasting tonics.
Martin Alvito
Another economics thread. /sigh
You don't know what you're talking about. The real increase in the supply of keys came from the massive number of reward points that were given to participants in the Snowball ATs. Teams that finished in the top 16 were getting something like 13-14 keys per player; 27 for top 8; 42 for top 4; 50 for finalist; 70 for champion.
That's three times per day (often 4-5 due to multiple groups in an AT), eight players per team. The amount of keys resulting from faction given out in the 4v4 arenas was DWARFED by this effect.
You don't know what you're talking about.
There's a fixed supply of the REALLY valuable stuff in this game. Req 8 rare skins, req 7's, ultra-rare minipets. These items are valuable because more of them are not being created (or close enough, with respect to minis).
Prices for these items are limited only by the capacity constraints of players. In other words, the market price is limited only by what players can pay.
Wealth in a trading economy tends to concentrate in a small number of hands, because money flows from poor traders to good traders.
It necessarily follows that there is a marginal, positive effect on what the wealthy can pay for ultra-rare items for every ZKey or ecto added to the system.
Such an effect is defined to be inflation. Thus, creating massive numbers of ZKeys is inflationary. QED.
Sure, and housing prices will always go up, too.
ZKeys have the same problem as ecto - there's lots of them out there. If there's ever a major disturbance in the underlying in-game utility of ZKeys, you'll see the same sort of crash you saw in the ecto market when ANet broke Shadow Form in half. Everyone with a brain that has ZKeys will realize that the market is going to flood with them. That will result in a price drop, so the sensible thing to do is to sell now...which brings about the price drop, and the cycle repeats until people start seeing them to be "undervalued".
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
A LOT of people where playing snowball arena during wintersday. The price drop we see over the past few weeks is due to the oversupply of faction that was spent on zkeys.
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That's three times per day (often 4-5 due to multiple groups in an AT), eight players per team. The amount of keys resulting from faction given out in the 4v4 arenas was DWARFED by this effect.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
Edit: @Shadowspawn. What "effect" on the economy. Z-keys just transfer money from one group of individuals to another. It does not "create" weath (like money droping on the ground) or "remove" it (ie, buying things from merchants). It has very minimal inflation/deflation effects.
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There's a fixed supply of the REALLY valuable stuff in this game. Req 8 rare skins, req 7's, ultra-rare minipets. These items are valuable because more of them are not being created (or close enough, with respect to minis).
Prices for these items are limited only by the capacity constraints of players. In other words, the market price is limited only by what players can pay.
Wealth in a trading economy tends to concentrate in a small number of hands, because money flows from poor traders to good traders.
It necessarily follows that there is a marginal, positive effect on what the wealthy can pay for ultra-rare items for every ZKey or ecto added to the system.
Such an effect is defined to be inflation. Thus, creating massive numbers of ZKeys is inflationary. QED.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by crazybanshee
Basically, zkeys are a better currency option than ecto, and will probably remain pretty stable in price.
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ZKeys have the same problem as ecto - there's lots of them out there. If there's ever a major disturbance in the underlying in-game utility of ZKeys, you'll see the same sort of crash you saw in the ecto market when ANet broke Shadow Form in half. Everyone with a brain that has ZKeys will realize that the market is going to flood with them. That will result in a price drop, so the sensible thing to do is to sell now...which brings about the price drop, and the cycle repeats until people start seeing them to be "undervalued".
Gift3d
There will always be pve players desperate to have an emote/better emote without needing to have time or talent to obtain it, i have no problem whatsoever selling them for 5k each, nor have i ever, nor do i believe i ever will.
GWEXTREEMFAN
i can't remember ever opening z chest for everlastings...
Aussie Boy
I sell mine for 4k cause I can't be bothered with that title or standing around ages just to sell for 5k
gee it's free money from predictions and i made 160k this month in a few min actualy
just from selling the 40 keys i traded for the XHP
I think the price will always remain at 5k or around that
gee it's free money from predictions and i made 160k this month in a few min actualy
just from selling the 40 keys i traded for the XHP
I think the price will always remain at 5k or around that
Nessar
Eh..its hard to sell for 5k imo. But zkeys will prolly remain around 4.5k-5kish perhaps. Depends on how patient people are with selling/buying...Also zkeys practically equal ecto...so they'll prolly always be 4.5k-5k...But this month tons of zkeys came from snowball and all that. So I've seen the price drop down to 4.2k.
But after this wintersday and junk, zkey prices will be more stable
But after this wintersday and junk, zkey prices will be more stable
rohara
i still have no problem selling my zkeys for 5k a pop. granted, it takes longer than it used to because bulk buyers often look for a discount, but i don't see the price of zkeys dropping drastically anytime soon. as long as people want emotes and fancy items, the demand for zkeys will persist. the price drops ever so slightly around XTH prediction time, but that is to be expected.
snowball tourneys did wonders for my xunlai bank account
snowball tourneys did wonders for my xunlai bank account
moriz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bobulation
....Accept for the many, many 1000's+ being "created" per month.....
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AJD
This thread is someone trying to bring the price down?
Icy The Mage
So money is being transfered between players, no money is actually being injected to the game through these creation of Zaishen Keys (a.k.a. You can't sell Zaishen Keys to the merchant for gold) The occasional 300g value item from the z chest is the only thing that's being created.
Lycan Nibbler
I agree with Martin Alvito having seen dth in just about every AT I was in too ^.^, there was a huge influx of keys over and above the normal amount due to the Snowball ATs which as such has depressed prices slightly towards 4.7k from the normal. There are still plenty of people going for the R3 for the HoM though to keep prices in the similar range to ectos.
Of course if they actually decided to add the rare minis as a rare drop from the chest (Polar Bear anyone?) then I'd imagine the price of keys to jump.. so as always we are at the mercy of anet
Of course if they actually decided to add the rare minis as a rare drop from the chest (Polar Bear anyone?) then I'd imagine the price of keys to jump.. so as always we are at the mercy of anet
Shadowspawn X
Quote:
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Originally Posted by IcyFiftyFive
So money is being transfered between players, no money is actually being injected to the game through these creation of Zaishen Keys (a.k.a. You can't sell Zaishen Keys to the merchant for gold) The occasional 300g value item from the z chest is the only thing that's being created.
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You can't even buy a mod, tonic, mini pet, or rare weapon skin from the merchant so what the heck does that have to do with anything?
The Xunlai House is dropping at least 20 Million zkeys on this economy every month if there is a million accounts signed up with 100 rp's the average payout. That is like 20 million newly created ecto created from thin air. Thats why the prices in this game are out of control and will continue to get worse.
HawkofStorms
Quote:
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Originally Posted by moriz
... which has no inherent value. the keys themselves do not generate gold, it is only worth a set amount of gold because players attach value to it.
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When you get 20 zkeys, you don't "introduce" 100k into the market. The 100k you get from selling them ALREADY existed in somebody elses invintory. It doesn't spawn wealth out of no where. All gold is created in this game comes from monster drops and items being sold to the merchant. How many "rare items" in the market might effect the value of that particular item, but it has no affect on the total amount of cash in the system. It doesn't matter if you sell a req 8 15^50 Crystaline for 999k to another player or a white non-max long sword for 999k to another player. In both situations, there is still only 999k worth of money involved.
Compare monthly z-keys to the MOX quests' reward. A.net has since come out and announced that gold reward (which was only 10k per character) actually had a severe impact on the economy, as they monitered the number of trades being made. That was A.net's excuse for not making the new Factions/Phrophecies/NF books retroactive, because they feared putting new gold into the system.
In a closed money market system, the amount of money in the total system is all that matters when determining prices, not how much money YOU personally have.
The only effect z-keys have on inflation is the merchant value of any of the gold item you get (which is minimal compared to farming).
Jensy
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
When you get 20 zkeys, you don't "introduce" 100k into the market. The 100k you get from selling them ALREADY existed in somebody elses invintory. It doesn't spawn wealth out of no where. |
People don't open the chest solely for everlastings, you know. Some people like to gamble, some people want to work on the title, some people just hate selling (because yeah, standing around GTOB AD1 is hazardous to your brain, ugh)... there's a lot of reasons.
warrior running
the prices will not lower as long as the tonics keeps coming
HawkofStorms
Another point to reemphize. It doesn't matter how much money YOU have, but the system as a whole. Even if you've gotten fithly rich off of selling z-keys, by definition, someone else (the guy buying from you) has gotten just as poor as you are rich. And if that guy who bought from you gets a super rare item, then the guy who buys that item from HIM becomes equally poor. There is no new money introduced. There is no inflation.
Anyway, the economy was WAY screwed up long before the z-title was added. I still think inscriptions, GW:EN farming for mods, and the crash of ecto to less then 8-9k had a more adverse affect on the economy then z-keys. If anything, z-keys have made sales easier, by creating a desirable tradeable commodity.
Anyway, the economy was WAY screwed up long before the z-title was added. I still think inscriptions, GW:EN farming for mods, and the crash of ecto to less then 8-9k had a more adverse affect on the economy then z-keys. If anything, z-keys have made sales easier, by creating a desirable tradeable commodity.
Shadowspawn X
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
The 100k you get from selling them ALREADY existed in somebody elses invintory.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
It doesn't spawn wealth out of no where.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
All gold is created in this game comes from monster drops and items being sold to the merchant.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
That was A.net's excuse for not making the new Factions/Phrophecies/NF books retroactive, because they feared putting new gold into the system.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
The only effect z-keys have on inflation is the merchant value of any of the gold item you get (which is minimal compared to farming).
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cthulhu reborn
Quote:
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Originally Posted by unkleanone
Zkeys will stay stable at 5k as long as people continue to refuse to sell lower and people refuse to buy higher. If too many people start to try and undercut others to sell their keys faster the price will fall. This goes the other way too if enough people begin to sell keys at a higher price the price will rise.
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I would suspect that the current prices on the WTB side that are currently around 4.6/4.7k will not necessarily go up again. So I expect that the prices will slowly go down. I don't think they will be worthless, but they may go down to around 4k during this year. There still is a demand for them and you really need an absolute insane amount of keys to max this title.
lemming
There's a lot of awful economics in this thread.
zwei2stein
Last time i checked (two months ago), there were ~ 120 000 accounts registered on XTH.
1 million keys per month is not unreasonable expectation.
Do with this whatever you want.
1 million keys per month is not unreasonable expectation.
Do with this whatever you want.