23 Jan 2009 at 10:24 - 51
Our percentages on our poll are looking decent, but still... 1 out of every 30 PCs is infected, and most Guru users are good about using Windows updates and having an Anti Virus, and having sensible passwords thanks to our gaming backgrounds. That of course, doesn't speak for all users, but I would say at least 85% of our users are fairly good with keeping updates on their Windows installs and AVs.
So, assuming our current poll, let's put that in perspective...
Guru has ~1500 fairly active users, which means by the current poll statistics, 45 of them are currently infected with Downadup. That is 45 people that shouldn't be infected, and that hopefully will not be infected because of this thread. We can take that estimate of 45 down to 43 at least. Remember, tell as many people as you can; knowledge is power (pardon the cliché)
However, the current estimates of all users across the world that are infected is now 1 in every 12 PCs. That number of 10.2M PCs infected may seem small thinking about it, so let's say that we took the same 1,500 active guru users, and applied the current viral infection statistics, shall we?
1 in 12 = approximately 8%, but by the time I am making this post, that would probably be closer to 9% based on the current infection rate (which is astronomical at around 1% daily and growing)
So, 135 of our very active users are infected by the current world infection rates.... that is absolutely incredible.
In other news regarding Downadup/Conficker:
The U.K's Ministry of Defence (MoD) has been infected. They have been battling the sinister worm for 2 weeks now. They are curing the infections, but as fast as they cure it, it reinfects cured PCs and infects new networks. Currently, it has even spread into the network systems on the Royal Navy's submarines (not the targeting or operations systems, thank god) The level of information that can be accessed currently is only rated as 'Restricted', but if the infection continues to spread, it could access Classified files and more.
In addition, many public hospital networks have been badly infected, with some hospitals reporting 800+ of their machines being infected with Downadup variant C (the most virulent and mutated strain yet). Downadup poses a major security risk on this level, because of confidential patient files it can access that contain a plethora of personal information, as well as alarm codes for pharmacy access. The hospitals in question are currently, desperately trying to scrub the virus from their networks, but again, it is quite difficult given the way and speed at which Downadup can mutate and adapt to attempts to remove it.
But all hope is not lost. If analysts predictions are correct, the rate of infection should come to its peak within the next 14-16 days. However, the downside is that if the hackers/creators decide to flip the switch prior to mass removal, they will have the largest botnet ever recorded to intrude what they want, on their terms. Currently, the world's largest botnet has a maximum of 175,000 PCs under its control, and is responsible for most of the junk email (chain letters, pornography, viagra, magazine ads, etc) that you might receive in your email/spam folder.
To put it in perspective.... the largest botnet @ 175,000 PCs controlled is 1/85th the power of the estimated peak of Downadup's, that is estimated to reach 15M PCs in the next 2 weeks (by some estimates, 1 in every 3 PCs will be infected, meaning more on the order of 25M)
With 25 millions PCs in its control, Downadup could potentially be the worst cyber terror weapon we have ever seen. However, it may just be a scare tactic, to show the world that hackers are not quelled, and are just as powerful if not more powerful now, than they were 5-8 years ago. In the end, what we all should hope is that businesses and all home users learn, across the world, that updating their software and keeping their networks secure is of the utmost importance.