Wanted to private msg Anet about this but seriously i know there's nothing to be done, but i dare you to say no to that:
50 lockpicks used on lock runs, all chests r eotn chests, all picks broken from first run, all items droped purple (might have got 2 gold only) !!! i have 60% additional retain rate bonus!!! (oh and some runs where in HM)
Not to mention that 99.99% of the gold items that drops are all worthless merchant drops but for the least they count towards wisdom! hey i'm not complaining bout that, learned to live with it regardless the fact that i find it ridiculous! but the purple drops ..... is simply unbelievable!
iyes for a crappy gold item but a purple?! Please have mercy and reword that drop rate for the love of the GAME!
ANet Have mercy!!!
higaru
I pwnd U
It happens. Stream of bad luck is possible, though that is a crazy one for sure. Nothing anyone can do though.
UndeadRoadkill
Think of it as an improvement to storage.
Kattar
JupiterStarWarrior
Totally not what I wanted to say. Oh, well.
But, it's true. Live with it.
But, it's true. Live with it.
MisterB
I don't know about you, but it takes me less than 50 to detect a pattern and change behavior. In other words, why keep running the same chests after the first 5 or 10 in a row are purple?
JupiterStarWarrior
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Katsumi
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lord of all tyria
Quote:
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Originally Posted by higaru
Wanted to private msg Anet about this but seriously i know there's nothing to be done, but i dare you to say no to that:
50 lockpicks used on lock runs, all chests r eotn chests, all picks broken from first run, all items droped purple (might have got 2 gold only) !!! i have 60% additional retain rate bonus!!! (oh and some runs where in HM) Not to mention that 99.99% of the gold items that drops are all worthless merchant drops but for the least they count towards wisdom! hey i'm not complaining bout that, learned to live with it regardless the fact that i find it ridiculous! but the purple drops ..... is simply unbelievable! iyes for a crappy gold item but a purple?! Please have mercy and reword that drop rate for the love of the GAME! |
cosyfiep
chests in EYE OF THE NORTH---there is your problem, I have to date, only gotten ONE gold from them (and yeah even the merchant didnt really want it).
(hey while we are complaining of the 50+ birthday prezzies my hubby and I have opened in the last ~3 years NONE have been green).
There are much better places to chest run with much better rewards than eton.
(hey while we are complaining of the 50+ birthday prezzies my hubby and I have opened in the last ~3 years NONE have been green).
There are much better places to chest run with much better rewards than eton.
Xanthe Dashka
Quote:
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Originally Posted by cosyfiep
chests in EYE OF THE NORTH---there is your problem, I have to date, only gotten ONE gold from them (and yeah even the merchant didnt really want it).
(hey while we are complaining of the 50+ birthday prezzies my hubby and I have opened in the last ~3 years NONE have been green). There are much better places to chest run with much better rewards than eton. |
Anyway, @ OP:
/Anet doesn't care. You must have an unlucky streak and they won't look into it.
BrettM
In counterpoint, I generally get exactly what one would expect. I often run the chests outside Boreal to work on L/U/TH/W. My retention rate is 56% on those chests. Today I ran them for about half an hour, opening 16 chests. Result: 7 golds, 9 grape, 7 broken picks.
Are the golds great? Heck no. I never expected them to be. But, they aren't any worse than golds out of any other 600g chest in any other campaign. I get an occasional mod or inscrip that I can use, and that's about it. Anybody who expects to get rich, or even to break even, at running chests for titles is fooling themselves. It's a losing proposition from the start.
Are the golds great? Heck no. I never expected them to be. But, they aren't any worse than golds out of any other 600g chest in any other campaign. I get an occasional mod or inscrip that I can use, and that's about it. Anybody who expects to get rich, or even to break even, at running chests for titles is fooling themselves. It's a losing proposition from the start.
FalconDance
pbfft. My necro is the only one of my girls to have finished NF and access all the "free" treasure chests. She hits them all in a day about every three or four months (because I never remember). She has, without fail, only received purples out of every one of them, even the one(s) in the higher areas. And this was in a party of real players, so I can't even blame heroes and henchies for 'stealing'!
I do not farm (except now in Pre for the new collector), I do not do chest runs. I fight my way to every one of them. And I am rewarded by useless grapes. *sigh*
I do not farm (except now in Pre for the new collector), I do not do chest runs. I fight my way to every one of them. And I am rewarded by useless grapes. *sigh*
lewis91
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Katsumi
Sucks to be you.
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Raven Wing
I sometimes feel im having a string of bad luck or good luck, but when I actually try counting carefully it turns out to be close to the expected from the retention rate stated.
I recently ran 100 nm chests in eotn, i kept 67 lockpocks, i have 68% retention rate, as close as it can almost be
Earlier I ran 100 HM chests outside Lutgardies, it was also just 1 from the expected number of kept/broken.
....50 broken in a row, that must suck for real. You really deserve 10k extrra unlucky points for that^^
I recently ran 100 nm chests in eotn, i kept 67 lockpocks, i have 68% retention rate, as close as it can almost be
Earlier I ran 100 HM chests outside Lutgardies, it was also just 1 from the expected number of kept/broken.
....50 broken in a row, that must suck for real. You really deserve 10k extrra unlucky points for that^^
Trader of Secrets
eotn chests do suck in NM. Even so in HM, except for dungeons.
Nanood
You say "All items dropped purple" then finish it off by saying might have got 2 golds.
So maybe all lockpicks broken, but maybe some were not.
99.99% of golds worthless. Well thats par for the course my friend. 99.99% of golds in the game are worthless.
Seems everything here is just as it should be.
So maybe all lockpicks broken, but maybe some were not.
99.99% of golds worthless. Well thats par for the course my friend. 99.99% of golds in the game are worthless.
Seems everything here is just as it should be.
Lonesamurai
Quote:
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Originally Posted by lewis91
lololol. I feel your pain, i don't use picks in a row, keeping records, but i bet mine are fairly simular. Its gambling, live with it.
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thats why it has a percentage chance of breaking the key, just as theres a percentage chance of breaking items when you salvage mods/runes of them
gremlin
The problem is a common one across every game of this type I have played.
Its a developer reaction to players actions.
Goes something like this
The game developers set up a scale of rewards to be expected for given actions, all goes well for a month or so.
Some players either by skill, loopholes or just putting in an enormous amount of playing time, gain riches the developers didn't imagine.
Items flood the market and successful players are able to buy almost anything.
Fearing the economy will be ruined the developer lowers the value of rewards given.
The formerly wealthy players either become more skilled look for more loopholes or invest even more time to get back to their former level of success.
you either live with the new reduced reward system join the race for wealth or give up playing.
Developers need to understand that they are following a pointless path trying to restrict players gaining wealth.
There will always be clever skilled players able to put in 18 hour gaming days week after week.
All you do is make the game less interesting for the average player who either are not as skilled or cannot put in the hours.
Maybe you should rethink the way the economy works and how easily the players can affect it.
I am really hoping that GW 2 will have a much more robust economy.
Its a developer reaction to players actions.
Goes something like this
The game developers set up a scale of rewards to be expected for given actions, all goes well for a month or so.
Some players either by skill, loopholes or just putting in an enormous amount of playing time, gain riches the developers didn't imagine.
Items flood the market and successful players are able to buy almost anything.
Fearing the economy will be ruined the developer lowers the value of rewards given.
The formerly wealthy players either become more skilled look for more loopholes or invest even more time to get back to their former level of success.
you either live with the new reduced reward system join the race for wealth or give up playing.
Developers need to understand that they are following a pointless path trying to restrict players gaining wealth.
There will always be clever skilled players able to put in 18 hour gaming days week after week.
All you do is make the game less interesting for the average player who either are not as skilled or cannot put in the hours.
Maybe you should rethink the way the economy works and how easily the players can affect it.
I am really hoping that GW 2 will have a much more robust economy.
SerenitySilverstar
Quote:
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Originally Posted by lord of all tyria
the developers don't even give us free money every month!
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Painbringer
Lock picks are a one time shot seriously. If you do save one to use for a second time consider it part of the drop.
The real question is …. Does the random calculator for chest drops constantly calculate until you use the key or does it set when you zone into an area.
The real question is …. Does the random calculator for chest drops constantly calculate until you use the key or does it set when you zone into an area.
BlueNovember
Quote:
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Originally Posted by higaru
50 lockpicks used on lock runs, ..., all picks broken from first run
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That's how I read his post anyway. Unremarkable.
If it _was_ 50 picks broken in a row at 60% retain... that's
0.4^50, or 1.2676506 × 10^-20.
^_^
Surely something's up.
Reinfire
Quote:
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Originally Posted by SerenitySilverstar
*cough*TreasureChests/DoNotTouch/BuriedTreasure*cough*
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Eragon Zarroc
gives new meaning to cursed by fate ;-)
Grunntar
Quote:
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Originally Posted by higaru
50 lockpicks used on lock runs, all chests r eotn chests, all picks broken from first run...
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I started tracking my success rate for chest running out of Boreal Station when I first decided to work on the Treasure Hunter and Wisdom titles. I kept track of the success of the first 10 chests, the number of golds vs purples, the relationship between retention rate and golds, and the effect of the time of day on the requirement of gold items. (I've always had a sneaking suspicion that higher req items drop more frequently when more people are online... I always seem to get req 12 and 13 items on the weekends.)
But, in almost 3,500 chests opened, I never got to 10 chests in a row without a successful retention. Not once. And you got to 50! So ya, pretty bad luck....
I usually averaged between 25 and 40 chests per session. Here are some things that I have found:
- The retention rate (for me) for the first ten chests of every run pretty much follows a bell curve, centered around your stated lockpick retention rate.
- The number of gold/rare item drops on weekday mornings is exactly the same as the rate on nights and weekends.
- Weapon requirements on gold items seem slightly better in the morning than on nights & weekends, though the numbers have been closing slightly as my sample gets bigger.
- My real retention rate for lockpicks in Ice Cliff Chasms runs about 2.5% *above* the stated retention rate. (Note that this research is specifically for this zone, with more than 3,000 data points. Your mileage may vary...)
I've thought about posting this information before, but never got around to it. It seemed appropriate here, so for what it's worth...
Darkstar The Legend
Having run 5000+ chests in EoTN i can safely say that it is just a trend that will sometimes happen. I sometimes had trends where i got 80% of chests opened giving golds, other times i would get dozens of purples between each gold. Also despite a retain rate of something like 67% i would sometime break 20 lockpicks in a row, but other times i would have one lockpick last for 20 or 30 chests. its just one of those little quirks of statistics.
only 50 lockpicks is far too small a sample to draw any reasonable conclusions.
Like the poster above me all my data was collected from ice cliff chasms, i know that my overall retention rate was about 1.5% ABOVE the stated rate. I'll try to dig around and find the statistics i worked out for my overall gold/grape drop ratio.
only 50 lockpicks is far too small a sample to draw any reasonable conclusions.
Like the poster above me all my data was collected from ice cliff chasms, i know that my overall retention rate was about 1.5% ABOVE the stated rate. I'll try to dig around and find the statistics i worked out for my overall gold/grape drop ratio.
Red Sonya
This is one of the reasons I rarely use any lockpicks in EOTN. I have much better luck in Nightfall lots of golds and retaining my keys as well.
Wish Swiftdeath
I advise you stay well clear of the zchest, you'll only get dissapointed
immortius
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Grunntar
- The number of gold/rare item drops on weekday mornings is exactly the same as the rate on nights and weekends.
- Weapon requirements on gold items seem slightly better in the morning than on nights & weekends, though the numbers have been closing slightly as my sample gets bigger. |
Random is as random does, green flavoured dog sings to dove.
MrTickle
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Wish Swiftdeath
I advise you stay well clear of the zchest, you'll only get dissapointed
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I managed to break 15 in a row today and only 1 gold, purples and normal tomes. Them's the brakes
Shadowhaze
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Wish Swiftdeath
I advise you stay well clear of the zchest, you'll only get dissapointed
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But I have horrid luck at times too. Rare times I'll get something decent but most of the time it's merch fodder. *sigh*
Martin Alvito
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueNovember
If it _was_ 50 picks broken in a row at 60% retain... that's
0.4^50, or 1.2676506 × 10^-20. ^_^ Surely something's up. |
1) Odds of getting struck by lightning (an incredibly improbable empirical occurrence, but one that does happen) are about 5x10^-7.
2) Computers cannot generate truly random strings of numbers.
Those of you that are shouting "probability" should be aware that the odds of anyone actually observing a 1.26 X 10^-20 event in a human lifetime are REALLY bad. It is very likely that the OP happened upon a series of events that was not independently distributed. How dependence resulted from the interaction of the OP's behavior and the program code that generates pseudo-random numbers is hard to say. More information about exactly how the OP ran the chest (time between opens, most likely) and how the program determines retention would be required.
Owik Gall
This is why good gold weapons are EXPENSIVE. Have patience and keep looking until you find something.
higaru
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueNovember
Obviously you didn't break 50 in a run, (unless there's some new epic chest run I don't know about) so do you mean you broke one run's worth of keys?
That's how I read his post anyway. Unremarkable. If it _was_ 50 picks broken in a row at 60% retain... that's 0.4^50, or 1.2676506 × 10^-20. ^_^ Surely something's up. |
and yes they all broke from first use! and yes i got 48 purple items and 2 gold! i'm not complaining really for those smart shot trying to to comment here, but i seriously hope that Anet reworks the drop issue, i don't mind my lockpick breaking from first use! hell it's gambling and i'm ok with it, but they can at least make it drop a goldie instead of a purple so we can work on wisdom title as well as treasure!
Gli
Man, I wish I was in your shoes, OP. I'm trying to max Unlucky after finishing Lucky some time ago, but I can't seem to break lockpicks for the life of me. I'd kill for the opportunity to break 50 lockpicks in a row.
Raven Wing
I have used 348 zaishen keys and they all broke......waaaaaaaah
j/k^^
I guess breaking 50 in a row could happen, and it is as likely as someone getting a r8 perfect echovald shield or similar. In other words VERY unlikely, but still there do exist a few of these shields.
j/k^^
I guess breaking 50 in a row could happen, and it is as likely as someone getting a r8 perfect echovald shield or similar. In other words VERY unlikely, but still there do exist a few of these shields.
Yawgmoth
99%+ golds being worthless merch food - blame the crappy game economy.
Cause is Hard Mode insane gold item droprates combined with Loot Scaling failure greatly limiting cash farm and at the same time allowing extreme overfarm of gold items.
Before HM+LS fiasco chestrunning was well worth it. Now it's a pure time and gold sink, zero hope for valuable drops (except Factions).
Cause is Hard Mode insane gold item droprates combined with Loot Scaling failure greatly limiting cash farm and at the same time allowing extreme overfarm of gold items.
Before HM+LS fiasco chestrunning was well worth it. Now it's a pure time and gold sink, zero hope for valuable drops (except Factions).