The Future of Guild Wars Financial Economy

Will the economy in Guild wars suffer a recession when GW2 comes out.
Will all those ecto become worthless, what do you think?

I have a feeling it will stay stagnit for a time and then spike in value since people will be putting the time in the new game and not the old.

Considering Ecto's were worth 15k once, they are already near worthless.

If less people play, it'll be harder to sell your rare weapons and stuff, so in the end it'll be harder to make money.

The effects will all be on the demand side.

When the announcement about HoM in GW2 comes out, the price of everything that can be meaningfully added for GW2 will spike and the price of everything that cannot will crash.

The biggest question mark is the impact of dedicating a pet. If you can have a Panda follow you around in GW2, expect the price of the remaining undedicated Pandas to head even further into the stratosphere. If the benefits are derived from the number of pets you dedicated (or the benefit sucks), expect those prices to nosedive.

The price of things that you cannot take with you will also crash. People won't care as much about things like dedicated pets and Eternal Blades.

Expect the community to slowly shift away from ectos to zkeys and armbraces during the run up to GW2.

Don't expect a huge move in the price of things like party/sweet/drunkard points, because there's already a ton of them out there.

I agree with painbringer and adruinna. Economy will be kind of same/slowish. Then prices on things like ecto's may rise because less coming into the economy. While things like the polar bear/ghostly all the crazy stuff people pay like 2k ectos for will drop because people wanting to unload there rare crap won't have any1 to sell to.

yea.. will be worthless after a while.. but why care?

Who cares..
Everyone should be playing Brood War by now for SC2, or awaiting the arrival of Diablo 3.
If you're honestly planning on buying GW2 with how ANET treats current GW players (Not even doing monthly updates, not adding new content, not even nerfing clearly unbalanced skills). If it is possible to do every dungeon in the game with 3 or less people, you need to nerf something, yet ANET won't do that in order to keep MORE PLAYERS. All ANET cares about for GW and GW2 is MORE PLAYERS, they don't care about YOU.

So, yes Guild Wars items will become worthless,
But so will Guild Wars 2 items in the long run (Probably less time than it took Guild Wars, however)

Wins thread, only part I disagree about is ill be playing Aion when its released, not Brood War or Diablo 3

Guess its "that time" of year for one lonely adolescent.

ok here is what I think will happen.

Guild Wars has 2 economies running now already. One in post and one in Presearing.

Dyes in post say orange are almost worthless because they are easily obtainable in post. Just go to the dye trader and get one. In pre its not so easy. People are WILLING to pay 100 gold for an orange dye. They are not willing to pay 500 gold for one so they wait for one at the price they are willing to pay.

Since the Supply of Orange dye is such that the "drop" rate makes it common place they can be commonly found rather quickly. Just go to ascalon in presearing and type wtb Orange dye for 200 dye and you will get 10 hits in the first 3 seconds because your price is such that people are willing to yield that dye for that price and make a PROFIT.

The reverse is typing wtb Orange dye for 10 gold and you will not ever get a hit about actually buying an Orange dye as people telling you your price is to low but you can get one of theirs for say 50-75 gold.

Thus the market sets the price of the dye between 50-100 gold. To verify this check out www.presearing.com and you will see that the Orange dye is exactly between 50-100 gold low and high prices respectively.

Also SPECULATION can drive up the price of an item even though it is not warranted.

In real Life this is called the futures market. This is why the stock market crashed - I know i am simplifying a lot but bare with me.

the Dow was at 14,000 and fell to 9,000 (again general rounded numbers) that loss of 5,000 points was not of real goods and services but PRECEIVED VALUE of the goods or service...OIL was one of them. Last year Oil was almost at 5 bucks a gallon cause the MARKET PLACE could afford to pay that price. Once people started to change their ways and use less of the oil there was more on the market than PRECEIVED so the price had to fall.

So people thought or projected that the price would be X when really it was Y. the difference was a Loss of real money on an Imaginary System. No Oil existed but the money did.

Once there was too much oil and the Arab Nations saw that they decreased production trying to compensate for the loss of revenue and deplete the stockpiles and the price of Oil then rose again.

Supply and Demand.

So what do we know about GW2 that will effect our buying and our collecting of goods and services.

Only ONE thing is known. THE HALL OF MONUMENTS. Here is an actual excerpt from the GW2 website...

"However, your original Guild Wars character names will be reserved for your use in Guild Wars 2. The Hall of Monuments in Guild Wars 2 recognizes the accomplishments commemorated by your original Guild Wars characters and provides you with unique rewards to showcase those achievements."

The words UNIQUE REWARDS is the SPECULATION.

From here we can break this down into 5 parts cause there are 5 monuments in the Hall of Monuments.

I will just focus on the one that takes WEAPONS as an example. Destroyer weapons can be added.

IF in GW2 you have a War and your GW1 toon has a destroyer sword in the Hall of Monuments and the GW2 toon has access to that weapon this would qualify as SPECULATION. However the Value of that would rest in whether or not the GW2 toon could SELL that weapon or if it was customized to that toon only.

We know...
1) When the destroyer weapon is placed in the hall of monuments it gets customized. Therefore it could be SPECULATED that it will be customized to "account in GW2" since the Hall of Monuments is ACCOUNT BASED.

Therefor the weapons from the Hall of Monuments will be able to be used by GW2 toons but not traded and their value is reduced to dust.

So no point in filling that monument unless the weapons can be bought and sold in GW2.

This same Logic would apply for PETS since they are customized. Hero's are customized as well I do believe.

This leaves Armor..well that is customized as well.

Pets are customized too like the Black Widow...

so that leaves only the titles.

So my Speculation is as a result of the following... THE TRAVELER!!!

Since the advent of the traveler there are more and more consumables out there. The sweet tooth and the party animal FUTURES will increase to 160-200 gold per point to give those with less than 10 titles..well 10 titles.

Why? The "look of the Hall of Monuments changes at 10 maxed titles"

So whatever helps people get to 10 maxed titles will increase.


So my prediction for the economy if GW1 is this. There will be less and less people playing GW1 with all of the hype that will surround the release of GW2. Thus the economy with become stagnated as less people play for Gold and more for TITLES.

Service that are rendered for Missions and Bonus's will be more and more expensive as time goes on as there will be less people playing GW1 and people need these for the protector titles (4 of them i do believe). This is total SPECULATION

So Gw2 will kill off GW1 in time is my prediction to the point where the servers for GW1 are kept to a minimum, 99% of the people will dump their GW1 toons in fav for new and exciting game play. That 1% will go back to GW1 and get the Achievements that will give them the Unique Rewards if these rewards MERIT the COST of doing so.

Coments?

I think that a poster above hit the nail on the head. GW2 gold for GW1 ITEM!!! this way a destroyer sword CAN BE BOUGHT and brought to GW2 Via GW1. This is BRILLIANT SPECULATION!!!
This activity can already be found in the Presearing economy. People will pay twice the amount for an item in pre than in post. 50K in pre is 100K in post. or people want my destroyer in pre and are willing to pay me twice what it is worth in POST gold to get it in pre.

THIS situation makes Weapons and Decicatable things in the HALL OF MONUMENTS not worth dust but have a SPECULATED value since now they CAN be traded in GW2 Via GW1 hall of Monuments. Brilliant deduction

I think it may have some bad moments, but there are bad moments now.

It will depends as has been said supply and demand. I do know that I am definitely headed to AION in the meantime I haven't played such a good game in a long long time. And that's just closed beta.


And I have to disagree at least for myself because I don't see myself as being mistreated by ANET or NCSoft.

hi, i know this is basically what everyone's saying but yeah,simply: any HoM related items will either increase or stay at the same value they are now. anything not HoM related will probably go to an in-between price(i don't know the right word D: ) you know not what they are now but not something crazy like 1k for an ecto. even though I've already stated the obvious any players still playing might just go to the NPCs for most things since there won't be many people playing, although most of the people who say they wont buy GW2 and keep playing GW have been playing for a while and probably sell/buy all the costly stuff

There will be huge inflation on anything related to the HoM when GW2 release date is announced. When the HoM is permanently sealed from the GW1 side all things in GW will become worthless then will stabilize at much lower prices as the GW1 population stabilize.

So I should jump from this company that doesn't care to another one that doesn't? Sorry, but their big "screw you" to core DIablo fans that is D3 can burn in hell.

I'm thinking that you might well get something special for having FoW armour in your HoM, ie the ability to craft a unique armour set in GW2. if this is the case then wouldn't we see a big increase in the worth of ectos and shards as everybody scrambles to get FoW for their HoM? just a thought

The economy isn't already broken?

One key factor to this discussion which has not been mentioned is if GW2 will be charging a monthly access fee. If this happens I think that many GW1 players will not be moving to GW2 and will maintain playing GW1 or just move on to other games. If this happens, many HOM items that are in demand or speculated to be in demand will be leveled out due to fewer people caring about HOM since they have no intent on moving to GW2.

Once GW2 releases, and the GW2 economy starts, I simply won't care about my GW1 riches. Ecto stacks, 2500 plats, asian minis.......I won't even care.

Option 1- Everyone leaves gw1, goes to gw2, entire economy crash and ectos reaches 100k each.

Option 2- BF2>BF2142 happens again, everyone gets excited at first, but than goes back to the old game, and economy is fixed and back to 2 years ago.

altho, im pretty sure that when more news about gw2 will come out, ppl will wanna fill theyre HoM, which could and prolly will affect the economy and make some things to go higher and some to go lower (well, doh).

wtb new elite FoW armor. if they made chaos gloves that helped to raise ectos a little bit, why not make even a bigger thing?

Anet said more than once that there will be NO monthly fee on gw2, it will be a one-time payment just like gw1.

Stop.
That will not happen, and ANet have repeated this for years. No monthly fee.
In fact, they specifically address this question on the GW2 FAQ on guildwars.com and guildwars2.com.

Well said. I agree with noneedforclevernames 100%.

That depends on the system. What is the source of the price in traders?
- From selling only to traders.
- Also from selling to any merchant.
- Directly from the number of ectos picked up after they drop.

Since almost no one really sell ectos to traders, and I doubt anyone with half a brain would sell to a merchant, then their pries would only be really affected if they were calculated upon pickup, since less people would be picking them, but the number of interactions with traders or merchants won't change much, since they are barely used already for anything bu to check the price.

And since it seems that the prices are calculated upon sells to the trader, we can say the prices won't change much, maybe even go down.

I don't think it will exist.

The economy went to HELL after the SC teams started going full force.

I'm not going to say whether I agree or disagree with you on the job that Anet has done with skill balancing in the last while but you have completely contradicted yourself with this rant. By leaving things overpowered/unbalanced it means that people can get through things more easily and with fewer players on their team.

The actively playing GW community is still sizeable but it's a far cry from what it used to be. By making PVE a bit easier they are keeping MORE PLAYERS because they are keeping the majority of their players happy.....how is that treating current GW players badly?

Of course they will become less valuable as any game economy when you have a mass exodus of players. Unlike our own unique stock market an economy there will be a recession and then a depression and then just nobody who needs or wants to buy anything. That's the difference in the real world vs fantasy worlds.

Fantasy worlds are a dime a dozen now and most gamers move onto the next best thing. Heck I've played EQ, DAOC, Anarchy Online, Star Wars Galaxies and Ultima also. Have played GW since beta and will be moving on to GW2.

Those old games I've played the value of things have dropped to excessively low levels. When I went back to SWG for 14 days come back free trial people were giving me millions of credits and begging me to join their guilds. lol Anarchy online is free to play now and people give you free stuff all the time there as well. Economies just don't last in these mmorpgs.

The place to be will be GW2 and Diablo 3 will be the place to be before that when it comes out soon.

Face it GW1 is old and pretty boring now for the old group. Nothing has changed much in years now except nerfing our fun builds to death. I wouldn't blame anyone for leaving for those reasons alone.

But for sure in a year or two you can say bye bye to your precious economy as it is now. Best enjoy what you have now for as time goes by it will just get more worthless and worthless as such is the way of mmorpg's or mmo's.

Speed clears, dumbing down of areas that at one point served to make players better (THK comes to mind), the Chest of No effort(sure you can guess what that is), and spreading out of items that were at one point tough to find killed the game. Although I will be buying GW2, im gonna do what all the smart people do: Zip through the game(story be damned), get into a guild, farm all the stuff worth something at that point and get my cash. First people to do runs and discover 55 monk and Riverside did it. GW1 economy died with Nightfall.

This hands down.

I'd also agree with the above to some extent.

I speculate that, leading up to and after Guild Wars 2 is released there will be a lot of players who will be dumping (or giving away) a lot of stuff they have accumulated in GW1. So, prices for things like Ecto, armbraces, shards, etc., will plummet for a while. Then after the few people still playing GW1 have bought all the now cheap FoW armor and high-end weapons they can, the "economy" will go back to the way it is now.

I would also speculate that, once GW2 goes live, you can expect very little, if any, work to be done on GW1. GW1 will be essentially unchanged from then on and slowly stagnate.

No one is gonna play this game when GW2 comes out, I really wish they never came up with GW2, the main reason I play this game hasnt been added in GW2, the realictic looking characters, they look so crappy in the 2nd part, not even close as realistic as here, hope its gonna take many, many years till it comes out.

I have the feeling that much will change when Aoin is released.

Sell your ecto's NOW!

Anet have already gone on record and stated there will be no monthly fee to play GW2.

I think armbraces will go up when gw goes down.nearly nobody will farm doa anymore but many people may want to put torms in their hall.if they do have a lot of money and are switching to gw2 they will most likely spend it on something that gives them a little goody in gw2 instead of letting it rot on their acc.maybe they will pay much higher prices for their missing torms because they dont care much about the "old" money and just want to complete their hall.

wow...didnt notice anyone cared that much

To be honest once GW2 goes live prices won't suddenly spike high.

I mean if you drive your prices too high, given the amount of people that will move on to GW2 you'll have no one to sell to because the people with the large amounts of money will have probably already moved on by then.

Unless it's confirmed that you can take your gold with you, which I find highly unlikely, there's no point in driving prices so high in a game that will very quickly die out once GW2 is released.

Oh yes, a full set of Chaos Armor. I'm getting a boner just thinking about Kamadan 1. Also an epileptic seizure.

its a game you people need to realize this...
you gets spend so much time talking about the "economy" of the game like this game is your real life.
Stop with the "economy is already broken" and stuff like its a game.. those little pixels of pink and your gold isnt worth anything in real life so why worry about the economy of a game :S

Your naivete about the bolded part is touching.

Don't tell us how to live our lives and we won't tell you to grow up and quit wasting your time trying to influence how others live theirs.

im not telling you how to live your life
im asking why do people care so much about this.
its a virtual economy.... relax and play the game...