i did some math and was wondering if its true because polar bear drop is .34% if u do the run 300 times does it pretty much guarentee a mini polar bear in those 300 runs?
EDIT:havent they gone as low as 400e because of so many more drops this year? and is there any specific reason for the more dropped ie drop rate highened or is it just so many farmers
Miniature Polar Bear
snowman relic
Another Felldspar
No. And you have your percentages wrong. Statistically speaking opening the chest 30,000 times results in 1 Mini Polar Bear. For someone.
Eragon Zarroc
pffft. player calculated drop rates are not exactly reliable and are somewhat speculative 
. dont know what the true droprate is.
. dont know what the true droprate is.
Miss Sarah Lauren
nope everytime you open it you have a chance 1/30.000 to get one. It doesnt get more everytime you try it. Everytime its 1/30.000
Sarah
Sarah
snowman relic
so its like winning the lotto?
Ugh
Theoretically, if you open the chest 30,000 times, you will get a MPB. But, it's not guaranteed.
Pretty much.
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Originally Posted by the western warrior
so its like winning the lotto?
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Axeman002
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Originally Posted by the western warrior
so its like winning the lotto?
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Kanna Banrai
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Originally Posted by the western warrior
so its like winning the lotto?
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Mustache Mayhem
yeah.. least in dungeon runs your looking at a rough 4% drop rate on the rares- if the drop rate is well under 1% as it seems.. your better off with a cox- but like the lottery if you don't play you can't win =]
Shadowspawn X
I thought the drop rate was .00035 % or 1 in 2857.
mathiastemplar
Just like the lottery... and said above.
Arduin
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Originally Posted by Shadowspawn X
I thought the drop rate was .00035 % or 1 in 2857.
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mage767
You don't farm the bear, the bear farms you, i.e, it will pick an owner who is clueness and naive.
Divine Ashes
I read the drop rate is (at best) .035%, or approximately 1/3000 chance.
http://www.wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Wintersday_Chest
http://www.wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Wintersday_Chest
Marzipan Marci
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Originally Posted by Arduinna
1 in 2857 =/= .00035 %.
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Divine Ashes
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Originally Posted by Marzipan Marci
but equals 0.035
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HawkofStorms
Learn statistics. Nothing is "guaranteed" because of odds. If you flip a coin and it comes up tails... does that mean it is "guaranteed" to come up heads the next time? No.
Also, the reason it is valuable is because it is rare. If everybody could get one easily, then it would be worthless. Thus why it is like trying to win the lottery. If it wasn't, they'd be worthless.
Also, the reason it is valuable is because it is rare. If everybody could get one easily, then it would be worthless. Thus why it is like trying to win the lottery. If it wasn't, they'd be worthless.
Artisan Archer
On wiki they just haven't had a drop yet in 2845 recorded drops. Droprate could be alot lower. It's definitely not reliable.
Reformed
The mystical 0.035% figure was reached a remainder from rounding all the other items and is an approximation. Ever seen the movie Office Space? It's sort of like that except without an actual drop in the table the number is a complete guess.
BoredJoe
or kill 1,000,000,000,000 boars
Muwhahahahahaha Ha
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Originally Posted by snowman relic
i did some math and was wondering if its true because polar bear drop is .34% if u do the run 300 times does it pretty much guarentee a mini polar bear in those 300 runs?
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midnightduo1
winning the lottery is like one in 35 million, at least the one i buy anyways
isildorbiafra
Screw the odds. Lets go straight to the source. Whom at anet do I have to fu*k to get a MPB.
Malache
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Originally Posted by isildorbiafra
Screw the odds. Lets go straight to the source. Whom at anet do I have to fu*k to get a MPB.
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Even if you don't get one, you get plenty of shards to trade in for prezzies or sell, so it's not like it's a total loss...
Mustache Mayhem
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Originally Posted by isildorbiafra
Screw the odds. Lets go straight to the source. Whom at anet do I have to fu*k to get a MPB.
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Barrage
The fraction equivalent of .035% is 1/2857. But since this is probability we are talking about you could get it on run 1 or 2857, it's all luck
My New Name
imagine the chances of getting a polar bear as throwing a dice that has 2857 sides...
(well it would be more of a ball than a dice but meh) the mini polar bear is only on 1 side you have wintergreen candy on 428 sides(15%) etc...
so you can throw the dice as many times as you like but you may never get that 1 side you need...All i can say is keep trying
i know i am going to :P
(well it would be more of a ball than a dice but meh) the mini polar bear is only on 1 side you have wintergreen candy on 428 sides(15%) etc...
so you can throw the dice as many times as you like but you may never get that 1 side you need...All i can say is keep trying
i know i am going to :P
Lord Dagon
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Originally Posted by isildorbiafra
Screw the odds. Lets go straight to the source. Whom at anet do I have to fu*k to get a MPB.
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bebe
Winning the Lotto sounds about right.. and that's the jackpot.. xD
fricker
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Originally Posted by Mustache Mayhem
rofl yeah they'd probably send you down to the coding department.. doubt those guys ever get laid
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Kapral
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Originally Posted by Mustache Mayhem
rofl yeah they'd probably send you down to the coding department.. doubt those guys ever get laid
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YunSooJin
I'm guessing this thread is a good example of why most people don't bother number crunching in games
IattackU
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Originally Posted by Miss Sarah Lauren
nope everytime you open it you have a chance 1/30.000 to get one. It doesnt get more everytime you try it. Everytime its 1/30.000
Sarah |
FengShuiDove
Heh, the lottery plays on this common failure of the human cognitive apparatus. By presenting odds that are incomprehensible, they can make it seem like you're getting a relatively good deal. For example, 1 in 3000 doesn't seem so bad, but it's an absolutely awful lot to be stacked against. It *sounds* better than 1 in 1x10^6, but if the reward is null for all participating but the 1/xxx, you really shouldn't bet on anything less than 50%.
Regardless, the rewards for those who are not the lucky one are greater than zero, and for many people, significantly better than an equal time investment elsewhere. That's pretty much what most well-grounded people realize before they even talk to the Rift Warden. You're doing it for the reward that you're guaranteed. The Polar Bear exists strictly as a "Huh, well there's that too," factor.
P.S. If the drop rate is .00035%, that means the 1/x ratio is 3.5x10^-6, or 1/285,714. Realistically though, the drop rate isn't important at all.
Regardless, the rewards for those who are not the lucky one are greater than zero, and for many people, significantly better than an equal time investment elsewhere. That's pretty much what most well-grounded people realize before they even talk to the Rift Warden. You're doing it for the reward that you're guaranteed. The Polar Bear exists strictly as a "Huh, well there's that too," factor.
P.S. If the drop rate is .00035%, that means the 1/x ratio is 3.5x10^-6, or 1/285,714. Realistically though, the drop rate isn't important at all.
Axeman002
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Originally Posted by fengshuidove
heh, the lottery plays on this common failure of the human cognitive apparatus. By presenting odds that are incomprehensible, they can make it seem like you're getting a relatively good deal. For example, 1 in 3000 doesn't seem so bad, but it's an absolutely awful lot to be stacked against. It *sounds* better than 1 in 1x10^6, but if the reward is null for all participating but the 1/xxx, you really shouldn't bet on anything less than 50%.
Regardless, the rewards for those who are not the lucky one are greater than zero, and for many people, significantly better than an equal time investment elsewhere. That's pretty much what most well-grounded people realize before they even talk to the rift warden. You're doing it for the reward that you're guaranteed. The polar bear exists strictly as a "huh, well there's that too," factor. P.s. If the drop rate is .00035%, that means the 1/x ratio is 3.5x10^-6, or 1/285,714. Realistically though, the drop rate isn't important at all. |
BlueXIV
Statistically, repeating the mean times of trials (2857 in this case, if that is indeed the drop rate), would only give you a 1-(e^-1) chance of getting a success. So if you really did grind it out all wintersday and opened the damned chest 2857 times (which at 5 minutes a run, would be a little under 240 hours, or ten days straight, no breaks), you would only have a 63.2% chance of getting the bear.
Feeling lucky punks? :P
Edit: oh and @OP, statistics says that if you did the quest an reasonably infinite amount of times, you would get 1 MPB for every 2857 quests you do. There is nothing that guarantees that you'll get anything in the first 2857 times however.
Edit2: did a bit more number crunching. If you do average a polarbear every 2857 quests, then that would be 1400e (assuming all the rumors of price drops are fake)/2857 = .49e, or perhaps around 3 plats of extra utility you make per run. I'll assume you get 15 shards and 5 consumables, averaging to 8 consumables per run, averaging to around 1.9k per run in terms of consumables. So overall, you are making an average of 1.9k+3k = 4.9k per 5 minute run, or around 1 plat a minute if you somehow can get consistent 5 minutes without using any consumables. A more conservative estimate would be 8 minutes a run on average with no consumables. So that would be 612.5g per minute, or 36.75 plats an hour. So all in all, it's not the most terrible run, but if you can make more than 40plat/hour, I recommend you do something else :P
Of course, this is assuming you don't find intrinsic value in farming holiday quests, because there is no utility of "fun" added in to the equation. Also, most people would rather farm more reliable sources of income because of the law of diminishing marginal utility. So if you end goal is a miniature polar bear, farming ectos during this time, (which you can get 15 minute runs with a VwK farmer, killing 50 smites and some other stuff for an average of 1.1 ecto plus gold drops per run, making around 10k in 15 minutes, or a 667g per minute with LOW variance) would be safer and most likely, faster.
This concludes the wintersday economics review
Feeling lucky punks? :P
Edit: oh and @OP, statistics says that if you did the quest an reasonably infinite amount of times, you would get 1 MPB for every 2857 quests you do. There is nothing that guarantees that you'll get anything in the first 2857 times however.
Edit2: did a bit more number crunching. If you do average a polarbear every 2857 quests, then that would be 1400e (assuming all the rumors of price drops are fake)/2857 = .49e, or perhaps around 3 plats of extra utility you make per run. I'll assume you get 15 shards and 5 consumables, averaging to 8 consumables per run, averaging to around 1.9k per run in terms of consumables. So overall, you are making an average of 1.9k+3k = 4.9k per 5 minute run, or around 1 plat a minute if you somehow can get consistent 5 minutes without using any consumables. A more conservative estimate would be 8 minutes a run on average with no consumables. So that would be 612.5g per minute, or 36.75 plats an hour. So all in all, it's not the most terrible run, but if you can make more than 40plat/hour, I recommend you do something else :P
Of course, this is assuming you don't find intrinsic value in farming holiday quests, because there is no utility of "fun" added in to the equation. Also, most people would rather farm more reliable sources of income because of the law of diminishing marginal utility. So if you end goal is a miniature polar bear, farming ectos during this time, (which you can get 15 minute runs with a VwK farmer, killing 50 smites and some other stuff for an average of 1.1 ecto plus gold drops per run, making around 10k in 15 minutes, or a 667g per minute with LOW variance) would be safer and most likely, faster.
This concludes the wintersday economics review
mrseasonalt
from a statistic point of view if you did do it every 5 minutes for ten days you would have done 2880 runs which would technically give you a >100% chance of getting the bear if that is the actual drop rate. Now obviously you are not guaranteed a bear no matter how many times you do a run but i dont know where u got that 60 whatever percent.
More importantly only the game designers know the exact drop rate because they are the only ones who know the formula used to calculate the chances of a person getting the bear on a particular opening of the chest( just like there is a formula for rolling the /roll command)
More importantly only the game designers know the exact drop rate because they are the only ones who know the formula used to calculate the chances of a person getting the bear on a particular opening of the chest( just like there is a formula for rolling the /roll command)
Eragon Zarroc
so, what would be the probability of getting a bear twice in a row blue? ;-)
Barrage
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Originally Posted by Eragon Zarroc
so, what would be the probability of getting a bear twice in a row blue? ;-)
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BlueXIV
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Originally Posted by mrseasonalt
from a statistic point of view if you did do it every 5 minutes for ten days you would have done 2880 runs which would technically give you a >100% chance of getting the bear if that is the actual drop rate. Now obviously you are not guaranteed a bear no matter how many times you do a run but i dont know where u got that 60 whatever percent.
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Doing 2880 runs would give you an AVERAGE of 1.008 bears. However, that does NOT give you ">100% chance of getting the bear."
Think about it. Say I flip a coin three times. Since the probability of getting a heads on each try would be 50%, does that mean I have a 150% chance of getting heads at least once?
If you answered yes, stop reading this because it wont help you.
The actual probability to get >=1 heads would be the probability of getting heads on the first try, plus the probability of getting heads on the second try or third PROVIDED YOU DIDN'T GET HEADS ON THE FIRST TRY. So that would be .5 + .5*.5 + .5^2*.5 = .875. So if you repeated this experiment 1000 times, 875 out of 1000 times, you would get at least one head.
Further more, as trials -> very large, the probability of getting at least one success at the mean (2857 in this case), would approach 1-e^-1, because binomial distributions can be approximated with normal distributions. That is how I got that 63.2% number.
And @ Eragon, .00035^2.