Consecutive Voltaic Spear drops - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

Windf0rce

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2007

26 Jan 2010 at 11:33 - 1

Last sunday I decided to lead a few VSF (aka Voltaic Spear Farm) runs as a EoE Ritualist and witnessed something probably rare... First run, a req9 VS drops for one of the Monks. Second run, req10 VS drops, for the very same person.

This is pretty insane, considering how many VSF runs I've already done and never had saw one drop and this day two drop for the same person.

For the maths people out there, what is the probability of this happening?

Has anyone seen this happen too or even see two VS drop in the same run?

Olle

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Aug 2008

Ign: Miniature Julia

Teh Academy[PhD]

W/

26 Jan 2010 at 11:59 - 2

I havent seen VS, but when i did SoO runs with a friend(he 600/smite/ranger, me sin)
i got two Bone Dragon staffs, in two runs!
i was quite happy

Fate Crusher

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2006

Pie-land

Warlords Of The Underworld [WoTU]

Mo/

26 Jan 2010 at 12:11 - 3

When the VSF was first made open to public knowledge, i was there easily for the whole summer where i was the sin runner (So i'm going to QQ moar lol) and i didn't get a drop until the last week of summer. it was req9 so i was mega chuffed anyways, but to watch a few of my guildies get one before me (one of them even got two) wasn't pleasent :P.

I'm not sure if anyone kept a droprate count for the chest, but i've never seen or heard anything like that for a rare skin.

Mcsnake85

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Nov 2009

Italy

E/P

26 Jan 2010 at 12:12 - 4

Nothing strange..in my VSF runs i've saw 2 drop on same run too...so nothing stange, it happens.

obsidian ectoplasm

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2008

26 Jan 2010 at 12:14 - 5

This happened to a friend of mine in the space of 1 hour. you can imagine how happy he was

okidoke

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Mar 2006

England

Myth of the Phoenix

26 Jan 2010 at 12:23 - 6

My experience of the VSF drops.

I decided to join farming runs for this about 3 months ago,
I play all but necro there.
It took me a few weeks to take on Sin role (wow people flame quick).
Never saw a VSF drop till about the 50th completion.
The next day the second ever one I saw was an r9 for me.
Yahoo.

So 2 drops seen in just over 50 runs.

Turk The Legendary

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2009

Fissure of Woe

Club of A Thousand Pandas [LOD???]

W/

26 Jan 2010 at 12:27 - 7

i just do fowsc if i want vs's... i always seem to get them

Saph

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2009

R/

26 Jan 2010 at 12:50 - 8

Sometime last year, when vsfing, one of the people in my group got a double vs drop. One was an r9, can't remember the other. He was kicked from the group afterwards lol.

jonnieboi05

Forge Runner

Join Date: Mar 2006

Mableton, Georgia

Guild Ancestors Reunited [?????????]

26 Jan 2010 at 13:52 - 9

Nothing rare. It happens.

I've ran SoO easily over 200 times now and not once have I ever seen a BDS drop for anyone.

My guildie was on an SoO run the other day and showed me a screenshot of THREE BDSs drop in ONE run. :\

Puddin Cheeks

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2006

On Welfare

Jelly of the Month [Club]

26 Jan 2010 at 14:17 - 10

you do realize that there has to be some random programming system behind drops within the confines of the percentage of drops itself. That means someone had to program it and with all else at Anet that random system is probably fail within itself and no one ever will really know about it. Ive had 3 black dyes drop on a raptor run for me before. Hence fail on drop rate. But mega win for me.

rohara

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Nov 2006

Rt/

26 Jan 2010 at 14:37 - 11

back when eotn was first released, a buddy and myself had a go at slavers' exile and i got a VS on my first go at duncan's chest. a week or so later, we did it again and i got another VS. next time...technically i got a VS, but it was the green one. apparently that was the last bit of my luck though, i haven't gotten a nice drop anywhere since then lol! i maxed my asura title from soosc and have only seen 1 bds drop.

Cale Roughstar

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2007

Canada

Guy In Real Life [GIRL]

W/E

26 Jan 2010 at 14:49 - 12

If I flip a coin a thousand times, chances are low that I will get 1000 heads, but chances are still there. If I flip the coin enough times, I will eventually see everything. There is a little number that says how often rare things drop, and if you do enough runs, you will see the numbers line up.

HellScreamS

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Aug 2009

wouldn't you like to know?

^yea KFC just subscribed to me for 1 year^

P/

26 Jan 2010 at 15:35 - 13

I got q12 and q13 voltaic spears, in the same hour, first one was q13, then 4 runs later I got q12.

joshuarodger

Unbanned

Join Date: Jan 2008

Trinity of the Ascended [ToA] -- IGN: Swirly

Mo/

26 Jan 2010 at 16:17 - 14

meh, the first time i did bogroots, three frog scepters dropped. 2 of them were for the same person. it was kind of insane. i had a screenshot at one point but probably deleted it by now.

Reformed

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Aug 2009

26 Jan 2010 at 16:32 - 15

It happens OP but I second what Turk says...for some reason FoW loves to spit these out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puddin Cheeks

Ive had 3 black dyes drop on a raptor run for me before.

My primary Raptor farmer has just shy of 115 million experience (somewhere north of 8000 skill points). My guild targets that area like gangbusters during events and nobody has ever seen this happen. You are either incredibly lucky or you are full of it.

Raven Wing

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Nov 2005

The Imperial Guards of Istan [TIGI]

N/

26 Jan 2010 at 17:27 - 16

I once did Oolas lab and got his wand twice from the end chest.

prey monkie

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Mar 2009

[OhNo] Mallyx and Friends

Mo/

26 Jan 2010 at 17:28 - 17

2 kath runs 2 times emerald blade for the same.
personally i've had the luck of getting: 2 q10 Silverwing Bows in 2 Fmaw runs.

its all luck. sometimes u deserve to get lucky! if u farm enough. ur time will come

Olle

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Aug 2008

Ign: Miniature Julia

Teh Academy[PhD]

W/

26 Jan 2010 at 18:33 - 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reformed

It happens OP but I second what Turk says...for some reason FoW loves to spit these out.

My primary Raptor farmer has just shy of 115 million experience (somewhere north of 8000 skill points). My guild targets that area like gangbusters during events and nobody has ever seen this happen. You are either incredibly lucky or you are full of it.

as another exp'd Raptor farmer. (nearly 100 mill, u beat me, u bastard! ^^)
3 black dyes, is very rare ..
the best ive ever got from a run was 1 black, 1 elite sin, 5 golds, and 1 red dye, + retain lockpick and got a lockpick ^^

Puddin Cheeks

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2006

On Welfare

Jelly of the Month [Club]

26 Jan 2010 at 19:43 - 19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reformed

It happens OP but I second what Turk says...for some reason FoW loves to spit these out.

My primary Raptor farmer has just shy of 115 million experience (somewhere north of 8000 skill points). My guild targets that area like gangbusters during events and nobody has ever seen this happen. You are either incredibly lucky or you are full of it.

This was back when i would also kill the raptors outside the cave as well. 2 of them came from them.

As for my luck, i got my first superior vigor in nearly 5000 hours, when i killed a sand giant after farming some griffons,

BlueNovember

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2005

WTS GW2 items for Zkey

Mo/

26 Jan 2010 at 20:17 - 20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cale Roughstar

If I flip a coin a thousand times, chances are low that I will get 1000 heads, but chances are still there. If I flip the coin enough times, I will eventually see everything. There is a little number that says how often rare things drop, and if you do enough runs, you will see the numbers line up.

Low? _LOW_?
If you literally tossed a coin a billion times every milisecond since the start of the known universe you are still statistically unlikely (as in, near 0 probability, ~1*10^-250) to have ever had that outcome. But yes, an infinite amount of times, sure.
--

OT, randomness happens. Given the amount of VS in the game, would a fair estimate be 1/200 runs you get a VS? Then 1 in 40,000 people will experience a double drop after doing 2 runs. Lucky smegger

I can't complain, double Everlasting Ooze drop ftw.

Lord Dagon

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2009

Inside the Oblivion Gate

The Imperial Guards of Istan[TIGE]

E/Me

26 Jan 2010 at 20:39 - 21

yep ive had a friend of mine on his second or third VSF run i talked him on he got a double r9 VS drop. I ofc got one for brigning him but still... luck is insane to ppl lol.

mage767

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Oct 2006

USA

LOVE

Me/E

26 Jan 2010 at 20:45 - 22

I have gotten 2 VS in the SAME run, it was a r9 and r12. Lol, that was epic!

I just have to dig up the screenshot.

Dzjudz

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jun 2005

gwpvx.com/user:dzjudz

26 Jan 2010 at 20:53 - 23

I've never had a VS or BDS or rare UW drop or rare FoW drop, so there's my luck.

own age myname

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Sep 2007

Minnesota

[TAS]

R/

26 Jan 2010 at 23:40 - 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dzjudz

I've never had a VS or BDS or rare UW drop or rare FoW drop, so there's my luck.

Same here, best drop I've ever got was a Chaos Axe worth 25k. All my monies have come from farming.

I've done about 100 runs of VSF total, and I've never seen one dropped.

Raven Wing

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Nov 2005

The Imperial Guards of Istan [TIGI]

N/

27 Jan 2010 at 00:08 - 25

Fun enough I have been in vsf about 100 times and saw 1 drop, but not for me.
I have had 2 VS, but that was part of full slavers run. First time was with pure h/h in nm, next time also in nm, but with a few guildies. But I suppose the game first determines that you are assigned a chest drop, and next it determines (from some probability table) what drop you get, so it is fresh calculation for each drop. So its very possible to have consecutive VS drop or even double in same run, but indeed rare.
Just like with my 2 Oola wands. Same mechanism but 2 oola wands didnt exactly make me rich

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

27 Jan 2010 at 00:11 - 26

I once got 2 gold req 8 chaos axes drop from chests in the same FoW run.

15% while stance and 13% while enchanted.

Sold the stance one, used the 13% for Ursan.

worstnameevar

Academy Page

Join Date: Nov 2008

Between Earth and Sky

The Thuggee[lain]

N/

27 Jan 2010 at 00:29 - 27

It's called luck of the draw; no need to make a thread about it.

Fates

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2005

Kanuckistan

Mirror of Reason [SNOW]

R/

27 Jan 2010 at 00:57 - 28

Back in the day when Kanaxai's axe was worth 100k+e I had two drop for me in 1 run. Weird statistical things do happen.

Zehnchu

Popcorn Fetish

Join Date: Dec 2005

[GODS]

Mo/Me

27 Jan 2010 at 02:30 - 29

I's had crazy loots drop......

Nexus Realized

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jun 2009

27 Jan 2010 at 07:35 - 30

I've had two Murakai's Mauls drop in the same run...that must make me lucky...or...

Mistical miss

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2006

The Netherlands - Hattem

[RR]

27 Jan 2010 at 10:34 - 31

Ok so for the numbers atm: I have nearly always done these runs as my assassin. I am a better safe than sorry runner so I use cons (yeah, bad me ^^) I've burned through 2 stacks of cupcakes and a couple more (which were donated by nice people in the team) but I have also used a few more on some runs if I failed the first try due to lag or so. So lets estimate that I've done about 500-525 runs In those runs I've seen 18 Voltaic Spears drop, of which 0 for me. Kind of annoying but nothing too surprising. Bad luck happens. But as we all love statistics I thought I'd post it. (btw, that means I burned a lot of money on this run :P good thing I got a few other nice goldies/mods on the runs)

As for lucky things, long ago I used to do a greens hunt with my touch ranger in mourning veil falls, I managed to get a green from all of the bosses except the elementalist and the ritualist boss (which I couldn't kill for some reason). Suppose lucky things happen just as bad things do ^^

I MP I

Hustler

Join Date: Nov 2006

in between GW2 servers

Mo/

28 Jan 2010 at 02:22 - 32

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshuarodger

meh, the first time i did bogroots, three frog scepters dropped. 2 of them were for the same person. it was kind of insane. i had a screenshot at one point but probably deleted it by now.

LOL Yea that mofo made some $$$. Good times. On topic, its all dumb luck. I remember this kid who didn't want to do FoW one day then got a q9 obsidian edge. He went on another run after and got q11 obsidian edge. This kind of thing happens with all drops in game. Just need to have luck on your side. That's the real hard part.

Juhanah

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

in my house

28 Jan 2010 at 02:31 - 33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Puddin Cheeks

you do realize that there has to be some random programming system behind drops within the confines of the percentage of drops itself. That means someone had to program it and with all else at Anet that random system is probably fail within itself and no one ever will really know about it. Ive had 3 black dyes drop on a raptor run for me before. Hence fail on drop rate. But mega win for me.

The fact that you got 3 black dye drop in 1 run prove that the random system work perfectly fine.

If it wasn't working, everyone would be getting the same exact drop as the next guy every time.

Random cannot be fair.

Puddin Cheeks

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2006

On Welfare

Jelly of the Month [Club]

28 Jan 2010 at 04:23 - 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mistical miss

As for lucky things, long ago I used to do a greens hunt with my touch ranger in mourning veil falls, I managed to get a green from all of the bosses except the elementalist and the ritualist boss (which I couldn't kill for some reason). Suppose lucky things happen just as bad things do ^^

Well on the touch ranger part, even the gods laugh at touch rangers, but expecially in PvE, that is some epic fail. Using a build that has been laughed at for almost 5 years. No wonder you couldnt figure out why you couldn't kill a rit boss. pvx and face roll moar it works great.

Zehnchu

Popcorn Fetish

Join Date: Dec 2005

[GODS]

Mo/Me

28 Jan 2010 at 04:46 - 35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mistical miss

But as we all love statistics I thought I'd post it.

Drop allocation and used to be an on going topic about how it's broken. And will be one of those thing's that are never fixed.

But I am sure if you do it 8 hours a day seven days a week in six years you might get one to drop and it just might be a r9 15^50..

mage767

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Oct 2006

USA

LOVE

Me/E

28 Jan 2010 at 04:49 - 36

Quote:

Originally Posted by mage767

I have gotten 2 VS in the SAME run, it was a r9 and r12. Lol, that was epic!

I just have to dig up the screenshot.

Found it, feast your eyes on this screenshot from Sept 2008...

Yes, the bars sucked back then!