Buy high-end items now or wait till after the PvE nerf? - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

JimmyNeutron

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Sep 2007

02 Feb 2010 at 01:40 - 1

NOTE:
This is based upon the following two ASS-U-ME -(drop e)ption

a. SF nerf and no longer maintainable by ANY A/* class when using any cons combination.
b. 600 is COMPLETELY dead.

Is it better to be buy a High End item now or after the nerf?

Ex. Voltaic Spear R9 sells at 50e(Yeah yeah, you can get more if you sit in Spamadan long enough. We're doing 50e for simplicty.)
Ectos Current Value = 7K (Again, SIMPLICITY!!!)

Buy Today = 50e = 350K gold value

Now, after the nerf, the prices of ectos will go up. Ectos will skyrocket up to 10K(SIMPLICITY!!!! What don't you understand?!?!?

).

1. That would mean that the value of the VS R9 that once sold at 50e, would now sell today at only
350K / 10K = 35e which is still 350K(35e x 10K each)

or

2. The value of the VS R9 would go up and will continue to sell at 50e because getting a VS is much harder than before; no more VSF and no more Slaver's Exile runs by Perma.

Thereby, 50e x 10K = 500K gold value.

So, what will happen? Will #1 happen or #2 happen?

mrmango

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Oct 2006

Southern California

Charter Vanguard [CV]

Me/Rt

02 Feb 2010 at 01:43 - 2

I will be dumb and comment that I don't think farming will die overall, so it won't matter.

TheRemedy

Academy Page

Join Date: Oct 2006

02 Feb 2010 at 01:48 - 3

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmango

I will be dumb and comment that I don't think farming will die overall, so it won't matter.

I agree, you may not have 5 min runs for a while, but people will find the most efficient builds and the items will be available as they are now.

Cuilan

Forge Runner

Join Date: Mar 2008

Me/

02 Feb 2010 at 01:49 - 4

Buy items when you want the items. Before or after the nerfs.

Or you can just get them yourself since none of the nerfs will prevent you from playing the game.

JimmyNeutron

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Sep 2007

02 Feb 2010 at 01:53 - 5

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cuilan

Buy items when you want the items. Before or after the nerfs.

Or you can just get them yourself since none of the nerfs will prevent you from playing the game.

Not talking about playing the game. Who does that????

Sure, you can still farm, but if there is no more Perma, how will you expect to do a VSF HM run in 3min?

The main point is it will take longer to get a VS compare to 3min or any other rare items like Emerald Blade, Dryad Bow, Storm Daggers, Dhuum's Reaper, mini Dhuum, etc...

Cuilan

Forge Runner

Join Date: Mar 2008

Me/

02 Feb 2010 at 01:58 - 6

How dare game developers make people play a game and earn things. Everything that is expensive in the game should be in your inventory immediately after you create your character.

ac1inferno

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2007

Boston

We D Shot Your Stances [GODS]

A/W

02 Feb 2010 at 02:20 - 7

I would say #2 since items usually have a set price in ectos and the price of ectos have never changed how many ectos an item goes for.

Saph

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2009

R/

02 Feb 2010 at 02:39 - 8

The only item I can see being affected by the nerf is voltaic spears, but like others have mentioned, they have a set price in ectos. So the only thing you need concern yourself about is the price of ectos after the nerf.

Zead

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2008

R/

02 Feb 2010 at 02:40 - 9

altho its possible the ecto price might do down a little, like you speculated on #1, it wont probabily be the equal to 350k, but a value between 350-500k.

Meaning its more like #2

uggsrock

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jan 2010

02 Feb 2010 at 02:47 - 10

I wondered the same thing for awhile, but I've been trying to sell my r9 VS and I'm thinking about holding out until the nerf to see what happens.

Quote:

Fissure of Woe Chest
Zaishen Chest
Underworld Chest
Chest of the Slaver (Justiciar Thommis)
Chest of the Slaver (Rand Stormweaver)
Chest of the Slaver (Selvetarm)
Chest of the Slaver (Forgewight)
Hierophant's Chest

If the nerf slows down or prevents the farming of these chests then you should hold on your rarities.

Lycan Nibbler

Forge Runner

Join Date: Sep 2006

AZ

02 Feb 2010 at 02:56 - 11

I think this point has already passed though. People have been aware of the upcoming nerf for a while now (many were expecting it before Christmas).

As such, people will have been holding onto their items already (hoarding ectos etc). you may find that there are sellers asking the equiv of 500k, but there will be more supply than there has been for a couple of months. It will depend on whether those sellers are looking to move items and so how far they will drop to make a sale.

the other side of the equation is that potential buyers wont be finding cash as easy to come by so they might not bite at increased prices...

Bob Slydell

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2007

02 Feb 2010 at 03:08 - 12

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyNeutron

Not talking about playing the game. Who does that????

Sure, you can still farm, but if there is no more Perma, how will you expect to do a VSF HM run in 3min?

The main point is it will take longer to get a VS compare to 3min or any other rare items like Emerald Blade, Dryad Bow, Storm Daggers, Dhuum's Reaper, mini Dhuum, etc...

3 minutes? What the hell is the point of even having GW on your Hard Drive anymore if all you do is do 3 minute runs for virtual shit that gets you ectos, to buy more shit to look better when no one really cares anymore..etc..

Lusciious

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2009

I'm from Singapore but i live in Shanghai ATM

Order of [Thay]

N/

02 Feb 2010 at 03:10 - 13

most likely number 2 but SF nerf won't affect ectos much . what it's gonna affect the most are armbraces IMO . SF aren't the main farmers of ectos . Sorry, but other professions do it faster . You can do the whole run but idc, i can get more ectos than you.

Once the nerf hits, BAM. All the ectos go out into the market and prices would fall drastically. armbraces on the other hand will not go out because now it's harder to get em without any SF tanks .

Correct me if i'm wrong ?

edit: to add to that point above, you play games to have fun . not to earn money . if you want to earn money . get out, get a life, and get a job . or even if you have one, don't come back until you think you've earned enough . at least IRL money can do something useful unlike IG money.

and chances are, money won't be transferred to gw2 so all your millions, billions of gold would all be useless ..

Sunyavadin

Academy Page

Join Date: Jan 2008

N/

02 Feb 2010 at 03:22 - 14

Rampant speculation pre-nerf is going to cause inflated prices as everyone expects the cost of these things after the nerf to be even higher, and so demand for them before the nerf will rise. Once the nerf is in place, give a week or two for new farming builds to become prevalent, and the prices will plummet, and anyone who bought in the weeks leading up to the nerf will suddenly find their purchases to be worth less than they paid for them.

Anyone with a basic understanding of economics can see that. (So you know, anyone who isn't an overpaid investment banker *cough*)

dr love

...is in denial

Join Date: Sep 2006

Hyperion

starcraft 2

P/Me

02 Feb 2010 at 03:25 - 15

there will be no change in prices. the prices already changed in anticipation of the nerf.

ac1inferno

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2007

Boston

We D Shot Your Stances [GODS]

A/W

02 Feb 2010 at 03:29 - 16

Ecto prices have all ready went up due to hoarding because of anticipation of the nerf so I don't think there will be that big of an inflation.

Sunyavadin

Academy Page

Join Date: Jan 2008

N/

02 Feb 2010 at 03:34 - 17

No, the inflation's happened. But we'll see prices dropping back to pre-announcement prices. Not at first, due to those who are hoarding them because they don't want to lose out too much on their investment, but there'll eventually be a crash as people realising their pre-nerf panic purchases are dropping in value and it's not going away rush to dump them all before they drop in vlaue further, at which point we'll get an exponential price drop to pre-announcement prices.

Lusciious

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2009

I'm from Singapore but i live in Shanghai ATM

Order of [Thay]

N/

02 Feb 2010 at 03:49 - 18

come to think of it .. i guess you're right .. time to sell my ectos

go cubs

Jungle Guide

Join Date: May 2007

Chicago

[SIR]

D/

02 Feb 2010 at 04:20 - 19

Ectos will drop in price, every rare weapon goes up in price, probably too high, then after 3 months its back to normal and new skills used to farm. Then new nerf and rinse/repeat.

byteme!

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

On Earth

W/P

02 Feb 2010 at 04:33 - 20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunyavadin

Rampant speculation pre-nerf is going to cause inflated prices as everyone expects the cost of these things after the nerf to be even higher, and so demand for them before the nerf will rise. Once the nerf is in place, give a week or two for new farming builds to become prevalent, and the prices will plummet, and anyone who bought in the weeks leading up to the nerf will suddenly find their purchases to be worth less than they paid for them.

Anyone with a basic understanding of economics can see that. (So you know, anyone who isn't an overpaid investment banker *cough*)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunyavadin

No, the inflation's happened. But we'll see prices dropping back to pre-announcement prices. Not at first, due to those who are hoarding them because they don't want to lose out too much on their investment, but there'll eventually be a crash as people realising their pre-nerf panic purchases are dropping in value and it's not going away rush to dump them all before they drop in vlaue further, at which point we'll get an exponential price drop to pre-announcement prices.

I agree with this.

I plan to sell some (not all) of my ectos now while the price is inflated and buy them back after the nerf when all the dust has settled. When was the last time ectos went up in value after a nerf and not before? Exactly. Never.

@OP - #2

Lusciious

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2009

I'm from Singapore but i live in Shanghai ATM

Order of [Thay]

N/

02 Feb 2010 at 11:03 - 21

look . even if prices of ectos were to plummet after SF/600 nerf because everyone is selling it, it would eventually go up again (until another farm build is abused to farm ectos) because supply would be low and not high . and ectos will always be used as a second form of currency (unless anet implements some form of currency to take over ectos) so people would still need ectos . and prices will eventually go up again .

HellScreamS

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Aug 2009

wouldn't you like to know?

^yea KFC just subscribed to me for 1 year^

P/

02 Feb 2010 at 12:45 - 22

who says SF and 600/smite gets nerfed?

own age myname

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Sep 2007

Minnesota

[TAS]

R/

02 Feb 2010 at 13:13 - 23

Quote:

Originally Posted by HellScreamS

who says SF and 600/smite gets nerfed?

Ermm...Anet.

OT:

It'd say #2.

Lord Dagon

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2009

Inside the Oblivion Gate

The Imperial Guards of Istan[TIGE]

E/Me

02 Feb 2010 at 16:56 - 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by HellScreamS

who says SF and 600/smite gets nerfed?

man.. where have you been? i think in the last week the mods have closed down about 10 or so(at least) threads about " OMG SF and 600 nerf is comming what do i do!!! all my e-peen on my assassin is now worthless REd engine Going red rengine gored engine".

but at OP: option 2 is much more likely.

AlsPals

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Mar 2007

Sellin hot stock tips for pro[fit]

Me/E

02 Feb 2010 at 17:46 - 25

Buy whenever. The economy is already borked due to overfarming and "Carebear"ing on Anets part. Prices wont change drastically enough on already fairly easy to aquire stuff anymore.

talon994

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Mar 2009

Ontario,Canada

聖光麒麟

W/

02 Feb 2010 at 18:12 - 26

Good thing I'm poor in a virtual world. Seriously though, ecto's are 8.5k@ the trader.For the people who have massive amounts of ectos, they probably carry some or even most of it in armbraces. Then there's the minipet market and the rare wep side of things. If ecto's were to drop however, I'm sure the smart rich kids would buy off all the arms + pets and hold the market for a few months.

galbat0rixx

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2009

I reside in the Pyramids of Egypt.

Gaurdians Of The Shiverpeaks [GoS]

W/D

02 Feb 2010 at 23:00 - 27

Quote:

Originally Posted by JimmyNeutron

NOTE:

1. That would mean that the value of the VS R9 that once sold at 50e, would now sell today at only
350K / 10K = 35e which is still 350K(35e x 10K each)

Honestly, I think if the SF/600 nerfs happen, high end items will not drop in proportion to ecto rises, they will drop a bit, but not so much. Also I doubt most high end items will be too affected by this sort of nerf, and they will continue to drop because of their contnued overfarming.

In short-nerfs won't make too much of a difference but in the long run the inscribable high ends will go down anyway coz they can still be farmed.

afya

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Mar 2006

Mo/Me

02 Feb 2010 at 23:31 - 28

Actually the preview(or postpone) of this upcoming nerf makes things worse. Now ppl putting their $$ into stacks of ectos, expecting them to be 14k each. When the nerf come, everyone starts selling, they'll realise that everyone has a stack or two. Panic selling starts and the market crashes. Then we all wait for FDR to save us.

Commander Kanen

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Mar 2008

[DVDF]

P/

03 Feb 2010 at 00:34 - 29

VS arent exactly rare every man and his dog has one. The price will stay the same but it will cost like 35 ecto and not the current 50 (just for a eg)

Copenhagen Master

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2006

El Centro CA

Lazy Imperius Legionis (LaZy)

W/P

03 Feb 2010 at 00:54 - 30

Gawd people... same thing over and over. Farming won't die people will always find another way to farm that certain area or that certain Item. All perma did was make things faster and make people lazy in the game. Ecto shouldn't go up in price because perma has died, if anything the items value would go up because the over farming of that area will stop. So I would stick with option two

Shrimz

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Dec 2006

Texas

[clap]

E/

03 Feb 2010 at 01:10 - 31

Simple input/output problem.. people will have to input more effort to gain more output so prices will go up.

Martin Alvito

Older Than God (1)

Join Date: Aug 2006

Clan Dethryche [dth]

03 Feb 2010 at 01:29 - 32

Prices on many items are likely to increase.

Ecto will probably be easier to farm than people expect, and items like Voltaic Spears will not be farmed easily with any of the available alternatives.

Cheaper ecto + harder to farm items = expensive items.

JimmyNeutron

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Sep 2007

03 Feb 2010 at 04:49 - 33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commander Kanen

VS arent exactly rare every man and his dog has one. The price will stay the same but it will cost like 35 ecto and not the current 50 (just for a eg)

VS was use as an example. This discussion covers ALL HIGH-END items and is NOT limited to VS only; anything over 100K.

Trip555

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Nov 2009

Destiny Dealers

03 Feb 2010 at 07:51 - 34

The 600/Smite is the only way doing Foundry of Fail at a decent Failrate with Pugs , so Titan Games may rise.
The SoOsc/FoWsc Failrates are low atm so BDS and Obsidian Shards might go up.

MoBway/Dayway are ok for organized Pro Teams that use every consumable there is.
For unorganized Pugs it's just Failway.
It's possible that after the Perma nerf, a new UW Clear arises that might take longer, but has a lower PUG Failrate.

So Ecto wont go up in the long run.

The Ghetto Prophet

Academy Page

Join Date: May 2008

Servite Nostrum Animus

E/

03 Feb 2010 at 08:28 - 35

If we've seen one thing with anet balancing is that they have no foresight (Case and point the nerf to mark of insecurity being used on flag runners a while back and then not having the brains to realize that hidden caltrops would be the immediate substitute)
this means that obby flesh tanks will takeover until gw2 comes out.

good talk, friends.

Lusciious

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2009

I'm from Singapore but i live in Shanghai ATM

Order of [Thay]

N/

03 Feb 2010 at 09:58 - 36

Obby flesh takes away the purpose of SC in FoWSC .

Think about that .

byteme!

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

On Earth

W/P

03 Feb 2010 at 11:49 - 37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lusciious

Obby flesh takes away the purpose of SC in FoWSC .

Think about that .

Plenty of personal consumables to cover that problem. (cupcakes, essence of celerity, rock candies etc...)

JimmyNeutron

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Sep 2007

03 Feb 2010 at 15:03 - 38

Well, I'm been shopping in Spamdan and some people are lowering their prices to reflect the new high ectos prices(Trader [email protected] and [email protected]).

I gotten a VS R9 for 40ectos and I got a Crystalline R9 Inscribable for 290ectos. I'm trying to pick up a Silverwing R9 for 200e, Emerald Blade R9 for 10-30e below the current selling value, and a mini unded Dhuum for the high 600e as the ectos value increase.

Shop till you drop!!! I am.

Remember, if you paid full price for that item, you didn't get it at the Spamadan Warehouse.

tlee

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jan 2010

04 Feb 2010 at 00:22 - 39

Anet shouldn't even let us have any skills at all if all they do is nerf and nerf when players come up with good builds..

Not Listing it Here

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jan 2010

04 Feb 2010 at 16:46 - 40

I would suggest just flipping a coin and let gravity make your decision for you. You have better odds that way.