This is an interesting concept, seeing that the botters held the majority of the wealth in the active state of Guild Wars. Will the prices decrease now due to the general lack of money among the average players, or will they skyrocket due to the accumulated loss of rare items?
Just an interesting premise for discussion.
How will the new bans affect the economy?
ShaneOfMach
willie nelson
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Originally Posted by ShaneOfMach
How will the new bans affect the economy?
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Most of the banned peoples assets weren't in the economy in the first place and 3700 accounts is nothing compared to a lot of people who have accumulated vast wealths.
drunknzelda
Since Chaos Plains farming is nerfed and 600/smite is too (for a while now), plus the fact that those botters had quite an amount of ecto all combined, which in return lowers the overall amount of ecto on the market a.k.a. supply, I wouldn't be surprised if ecto prices went up. This is all hypothetical of course.
Dervish Kid
less ectos, should mean higher prices, but rare mat trader had them for sale @ 6500 last night
Essence Snow
I would think that prices should spike (much like when the farming nerfs came) but then settle back once the masses realize there was no reason for the spike. I hate to quote MIB but, " A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals, and you know it." The only ppl that will get effected by this are the ones ignorant to buy at inflated prices (much like those who buy mini at release for high prices) and those who profit from those ppl.
Axeman002
well if there banning people from there I.P...then any account they access via there is bummed...so i assume ALOT of rares and ectos have just disapeared today...= a slight increase in prices
ShaneOfMach
I see that the psychological factor behind items with high prices is that there are generally a large amount of people that can afford it, and are willing to spend even more to claim it.
So now that all of these vasts wealths have disappeared, I would assume the actual number of active wealthy players have been cut in half, almost.
So now that all of these vasts wealths have disappeared, I would assume the actual number of active wealthy players have been cut in half, almost.
billypowergamer
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Originally Posted by Axeman002
well if there banning people from there I.P...then any account they access via there is bummed...so i assume ALOT of rares and ectos have just disapeared today...= a slight increase in prices
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drunknzelda
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Originally Posted by Dervish Kid
less ectos, should mean higher prices, but rare mat trader had them for sale @ 6500 last night
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Jidai
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Originally Posted by Zahr Dalsk
I'm gonna say a decrease in value as demand drops.
Bot users = farm gold = buy ecto to store more. Without them? Less ecto purchase. Supply? AFAIK there were no ecto farm bots. And there are still many ectos out there unless the power traders were also botting (unlikely), and seeing as power traders have always been the main location of ecto... |
yeah power traders got XXXXk by playing thru the game a dozen times. More like some very famous names will vanish and less ecto will be farmed, but my prediction is that prices will fall first.
people will panic and sell there stock.
Eragon Zarroc
mini-pets will rise because their rarity just increased.
NerfHerder
The botters were cheaters. They were the kind of people that will try to sell things for the highest price they could get away with. Remember enron? I think with out thier influence prices will go down, a little. They probably did have a bunch of rare items and those will be harder to get, for a while. Thats my theory. After a month or so things will be back to normal. Although GW doesnt have the best trading system, so prices will always fluctuate. Besides, its mostly power traders responsible for the ebb and flow of the GW market. And I dont dont think most of them were botters.
edit: with the growing sophistication of bots, I dont think it would be hard to make a couple SoS solo spirit spammers to farm UW. So I think they were still farming ectos too.
edit: with the growing sophistication of bots, I dont think it would be hard to make a couple SoS solo spirit spammers to farm UW. So I think they were still farming ectos too.
Voodoo Rage
I would think that the overall flow of gold into the economy (from botters killing monsters) should significantly decrease. That should lead to a drop on prices and I would think LESS demand for ecto (less demand for the gold sink). Honestly I think people are kind of crazy will all the massive skill changes going on to be heavily investing in ecto. I would be much more comfortable with my money sitting in something relatively stable and always in demand like lockpicks.
Lithril Ashwalker
what will happen you say since the bans
1. players who thought about botting before Dhuum killing people will think twice
2. players that still bot but not caught yet will crap themselves from anxiety attacks in fear of whether they are next.
3.certain rare minis were lost+tonics thus recycled BACK into the game
4.people will still complain that they were wrongly banned...
does that summarize it enough for you?
1. players who thought about botting before Dhuum killing people will think twice
2. players that still bot but not caught yet will crap themselves from anxiety attacks in fear of whether they are next.
3.certain rare minis were lost+tonics thus recycled BACK into the game
4.people will still complain that they were wrongly banned...
does that summarize it enough for you?
IlikeGW
It won't. This is a very small amount of people banned, out of millions of accounts.
Yawgmoth
I'm sure there will be close to no observable effect on the economy caused by what disappeared. Remember that players who had stacks of ectos in their inventories don't equal to a supply of ectos on the market. Those same players could just aswell generate more demand for even more ectos. So it should balance pretty fine without a visible effect.
Also despite what many here think, 3,700 accounts is a very very small number compared to the entire active population of GW players which is likely still a couple hundred thousand. And banning is economically no different than players just leaving the game and letting their accounts rot unused. Players with phat accounts leave all the time and loads of extremelly rare or 1-of-a-kind items disappear with them.
The only real economy effects we may see is less bots producing less of what they farmed - in this case probably unid golds and black dyes from raptors may go slightly up.
Also despite what many here think, 3,700 accounts is a very very small number compared to the entire active population of GW players which is likely still a couple hundred thousand. And banning is economically no different than players just leaving the game and letting their accounts rot unused. Players with phat accounts leave all the time and loads of extremelly rare or 1-of-a-kind items disappear with them.
The only real economy effects we may see is less bots producing less of what they farmed - in this case probably unid golds and black dyes from raptors may go slightly up.
Tullzinski
do not really care about the "economy" never have never will. On a side note though Diablo's "economy" did not seem to suffer after massive bot/hack deletions.
Fusylum
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Originally Posted by eragon zarroc
mini-pets will rise because their rarity just increased.
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which sucks...
Talithan
Just a thought, but those minis that there was a highly limited number of to start with may have disappeared completely?
Voodoo Rage
It is kind of sad to see an EL Henchmen go away. Those were truly one of a kind.
IlikeGW
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Originally Posted by Voodoo Rage
It is kind of sad to see an EL Henchmen go away. Those were truly one of a kind.
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Axeman002
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Originally Posted by Talithan
Just a thought, but those minis that there was a highly limited number of to start with may have disappeared completely?
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this is true.
Robin Hood Uk
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Originally Posted by IlikeGW
That's just a bonus. Stuff that rare shouldn't exist as it shows here the people who buy it are cheaters anyway.
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Jenn
I think we'll see a few interesting changes, a shift in the equilibrium, so to speak.
A lot of wealth was generated by illegitimate activities (botting, match manipulation), but only a small percentage was shown on guru through high end sales. Some very high end items were almost never successfully sold through Guru simply because, for the most part, only people who illegitimately obtained money could keep up with the inflated prices. Another reason we don't always see how much money is being generated by cheaters is because it is turned into real cash. This is not to say all rich people are botters, or all poor people are innocent, but after many, many months of seeing the ugly that goes behind high end trades, I've come to my own personal conclusion that people who get to be extraordinarily rich get there in less-than-innocent ways.
It's also important to note that some ways of getting extraordinarily rich aren't direct violations of the EULA, though they may be incredibly slimy. Some of the biggest scores I've seen people make are through taking advantage of others. It's hard to get rid of these people when they prey on others directly, not just the game. There are very few easily enforcible rules governing how to interact with players (and rightfully so, in my opinion). We might be able to stop people from botting, but we can't stop them from being jerks.
We won't know for a while what the actual outcomes could be as we don't know the extent of the bans. If the bans were comprehensive on illegitimate activities, I suspect we'll notice less activity in the high-end markets. I don't know if prices will drop a lot. In fact, some may go up before they come back down (imagine how many pandas and kanaxais were banned!!).
Things will be unsettled for a while, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
A lot of wealth was generated by illegitimate activities (botting, match manipulation), but only a small percentage was shown on guru through high end sales. Some very high end items were almost never successfully sold through Guru simply because, for the most part, only people who illegitimately obtained money could keep up with the inflated prices. Another reason we don't always see how much money is being generated by cheaters is because it is turned into real cash. This is not to say all rich people are botters, or all poor people are innocent, but after many, many months of seeing the ugly that goes behind high end trades, I've come to my own personal conclusion that people who get to be extraordinarily rich get there in less-than-innocent ways.
It's also important to note that some ways of getting extraordinarily rich aren't direct violations of the EULA, though they may be incredibly slimy. Some of the biggest scores I've seen people make are through taking advantage of others. It's hard to get rid of these people when they prey on others directly, not just the game. There are very few easily enforcible rules governing how to interact with players (and rightfully so, in my opinion). We might be able to stop people from botting, but we can't stop them from being jerks.
We won't know for a while what the actual outcomes could be as we don't know the extent of the bans. If the bans were comprehensive on illegitimate activities, I suspect we'll notice less activity in the high-end markets. I don't know if prices will drop a lot. In fact, some may go up before they come back down (imagine how many pandas and kanaxais were banned!!).
Things will be unsettled for a while, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
ShaneOfMach
I think for every botter Anet has banned, they have effectively banned a habitual spender.
I don't know if 3700 is a significant amount towards the majority of the market, but now that these people have been eradicated, you might be bound to see less people willing to shell out dozens of ectos for singular items.
I don't know if 3700 is a significant amount towards the majority of the market, but now that these people have been eradicated, you might be bound to see less people willing to shell out dozens of ectos for singular items.
Alex/Stuiver
Lets take a closer look at this shall we?
There are around 1.5million guildwars players where 500000 are inactive/Second accounts.
That leaves to you 1million players the half of that probably isn't really rich.
That leaves you with 500000 players which change from wealth from 20 obsidian sets to just a simple dwarven set.
So lets say about 100000 players have obsidian.
and 3700 of them are botters which would have meant 3700 of them have about 20 stacks of Ectos and 2 stacks of ambraces(as seen on pics).
However you wouuld need to take that half of that since not all botters were fanatique farmers.
so lets say about 1500 people of them were, so 1500 X 20 = 30000 Stacks of ectos and about 3000 stacks of armbraces, Well one thing I can tell you is that that many ectos and armbraces do matter.
Since 100000 people will have been rich but won't have stacks of ectos.
You shouldn't be counting in players but in the stuff they've had which was worth that much.
There are around 1.5million guildwars players where 500000 are inactive/Second accounts.
That leaves to you 1million players the half of that probably isn't really rich.
That leaves you with 500000 players which change from wealth from 20 obsidian sets to just a simple dwarven set.
So lets say about 100000 players have obsidian.
and 3700 of them are botters which would have meant 3700 of them have about 20 stacks of Ectos and 2 stacks of ambraces(as seen on pics).
However you wouuld need to take that half of that since not all botters were fanatique farmers.
so lets say about 1500 people of them were, so 1500 X 20 = 30000 Stacks of ectos and about 3000 stacks of armbraces, Well one thing I can tell you is that that many ectos and armbraces do matter.
Since 100000 people will have been rich but won't have stacks of ectos.
You shouldn't be counting in players but in the stuff they've had which was worth that much.
Karate Jesus
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Originally Posted by IlikeGW
That's just a bonus. Stuff that rare shouldn't exist as it shows here the people who buy it are cheaters anyway.
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We lost quite a bit of valuable in-game stuff, which will only drive the cost on those items up into unimaginable numbers.
EDIT: For example, here's a list of things that are gone from the game now -
Unded Panda, Ded Panda, Unded Island Guardian, Unded Mad King Guard, Unded Vizu. 3x Ded Vizu, Unded Zhed, 2x Ded Zhed, Unded Shiroken, 2x Ded Shiroken, Unded Ghostly, Unded Polar, Unded Greased, Unded Oni, Unded Naga, Unded Yeti, Unded Dhumm
4500e pure ecto/cash, + 15,000e worth of oldschool weapons and tonics
1x EL Henchman Tonic
The Gold Trim Guild, Peace and Harmony
That's quite a bit.
Winterclaw
Overall I think the effects remain to be seen. There's probably more botters. There's probably more gold farmers. Overall nothing might happen from it all. Sure there might be a spike here or a drop there, but overall I'm not sure things will change much.
And a partridge in a pair tree.
Part of me says who cares about those things being lost? They are so bloody rare most of us aren't even going to see them, much less have a shot at owning one. Let's say I could farm 4 ecto an hour. It'd probably take 25-125 hours or more of ecto farming alone just to be able to afford one of those suckers. I'm not doing that. So it is sad that some things got lost, but those aren't things I was going to get anyways.
Now it would be nice for Anet to reintroduce some of the uber-rare minis again, but frankly I'm still not going to get one. So nice or not, it isn't going to affect me either way.
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Originally Posted by Karate Jesus
For example, here's a list of things that are gone from the game now -
Unded Panda, Ded Panda Unded Island Guardian Unded Mad King Guard Unded Vizu. 3x Ded Vizu, Unded Zhed, 2x Ded Zhed Unded Shiroken, 2x Ded Shiroken Unded Ghostly Unded Polar Unded Greased Unded Oni Unded Naga Unded Yeti Unded Dhumm 4500e pure ecto/cash, + 15,000e worth of oldschool weapons and tonics 1x EL Henchman Tonic The Gold Trim Guild, Peace and Harmony That's quite a bit. |
Part of me says who cares about those things being lost? They are so bloody rare most of us aren't even going to see them, much less have a shot at owning one. Let's say I could farm 4 ecto an hour. It'd probably take 25-125 hours or more of ecto farming alone just to be able to afford one of those suckers. I'm not doing that. So it is sad that some things got lost, but those aren't things I was going to get anyways.
Now it would be nice for Anet to reintroduce some of the uber-rare minis again, but frankly I'm still not going to get one. So nice or not, it isn't going to affect me either way.
Karate Jesus
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Originally Posted by Winterclaw
Overall I think the effects remain to be seen. There's probably more botters. There's probably more gold farmers. Overall nothing might happen from it all. Sure there might be a spike here or a drop there, but overall I'm not sure things will change much.
And a partridge in a pair tree. Part of me says who cares about those things being lost? They are so bloody rare most of us aren't even going to see them, much less have a shot at owning one. Let's say I could farm 4 ecto an hour. It'd probably take 25-125 hours or more of ecto farming alone just to be able to afford one of those suckers. I'm not doing that. So it is sad that some things got lost, but those aren't things I was going to get anyways. Now it would be nice for Anet to reintroduce some of the uber-rare minis again, but frankly I'm still not going to get one. So nice or not, it isn't going to affect me either way. |
It's kind of a double-edged sword. If you owned those items, then now they're worth more. If you didn't and you were trying to get one, then you'll probably never afford it now.
jazilla
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Originally Posted by Yawgmoth
I'm sure there will be close to no observable effect on the economy caused by what disappeared. Remember that players who had stacks of ectos in their inventories don't equal to a supply of ectos on the market. Those same players could just aswell generate more demand for even more ectos. So it should balance pretty fine without a visible effect.
Also despite what many here think, 3,700 accounts is a very very small number compared to the entire active population of GW players which is likely still a couple hundred thousand. And banning is economically no different than players just leaving the game and letting their accounts rot unused. Players with phat accounts leave all the time and loads of extremelly rare or 1-of-a-kind items disappear with them. The only real economy effects we may see is less bots producing less of what they farmed - in this case probably unid golds and black dyes from raptors may go slightly up. |
-Makai-
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Originally Posted by Tullzinski
do not really care about the "economy" never have never will. On a side note though Diablo's "economy" did not seem to suffer after massive bot/hack deletions.
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Am I the the only one who thinks Zaishen keys will go up just a little?
Trader of Secrets
Depends on what was losed from the bans, anyways overall it for the better!
MArcSinus
I think it's sad that the fair/normal players also get a bit punished from this ban..
I could care less about those ecto's or armbraces but the limited stuff, the high end mini's and EL tonic, I hate to see gone. Not that I could ever afford one but the "If I can't have it nobody can!" attitude doesn't appeal to me.
I could care less about those ecto's or armbraces but the limited stuff, the high end mini's and EL tonic, I hate to see gone. Not that I could ever afford one but the "If I can't have it nobody can!" attitude doesn't appeal to me.
Yawgmoth
First I was only thinking of the effect on the markets for more ordinary goods, like ectos or farmable items and saw no issues at all. But then thinking of the lost uber rare items that cannot be obtained in any way anymore (uber rare weapons that can't drop anymore, limited minis, hench tonic, etc.) really saddens me. Expensive items which can be still obtained in game don't matter anywhere that much.
Right now we know VERY LITTLE about what really was lost, just think about it, the 3,700 accounts weren't most likely any poor. They may have been accumulating some of their wealth by illegal methods but they were competing with legit players on the market and outbidding them.
Players who quit the game at least often do last chance sales of their rarities or just give some to their friends, so they're not lost for the community. It's not the case with instaban.
So I think it would be an awesomely nice initiative but probably a huge huge logistical nightmare for Anet to REDISTRIBUTE the lost top valuable items from terminated accounts back to the community in some way, as a random draw with equal chances or other kind of contest. I'm sure many many players would love that.
Right now we know VERY LITTLE about what really was lost, just think about it, the 3,700 accounts weren't most likely any poor. They may have been accumulating some of their wealth by illegal methods but they were competing with legit players on the market and outbidding them.
Players who quit the game at least often do last chance sales of their rarities or just give some to their friends, so they're not lost for the community. It's not the case with instaban.
So I think it would be an awesomely nice initiative but probably a huge huge logistical nightmare for Anet to REDISTRIBUTE the lost top valuable items from terminated accounts back to the community in some way, as a random draw with equal chances or other kind of contest. I'm sure many many players would love that.
Winterclaw
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Originally Posted by Karate Jesus
Well, you're right, barely any of us will ever seen them (hell, I know I never would), but it still kind of hurts to see that. Anet introduced those items hoping that a lucky few would get to have them.....now, none of us do.
It's kind of a double-edged sword. If you owned those items, then now they're worth more. If you didn't and you were trying to get one, then you'll probably never afford it now. |
So I wonder if Anet banned all of the botters, if there'd be any of those uber rares left.
prey monkie
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Originally Posted by Alex/Stuiver
Lets take a closer look at this shall we?
There are around 1.5million guildwars players where 500000 are inactive/Second accounts. That leaves to you 1million players the half of that probably isn't really rich. That leaves you with 500000 players which change from wealth from 20 obsidian sets to just a simple dwarven set. So lets say about 100000 players have obsidian. and 3700 of them are botters which would have meant 3700 of them have about 20 stacks of Ectos and 2 stacks of ambraces(as seen on pics). However you wouuld need to take that half of that since not all botters were fanatique farmers. so lets say about 1500 people of them were, so 1500 X 20 = 30000 Stacks of ectos and about 3000 stacks of armbraces, Well one thing I can tell you is that that many ectos and armbraces do matter. Since 100000 people will have been rich but won't have stacks of ectos. You shouldn't be counting in players but in the stuff they've had which was worth that much. |
and yeah a lot of Limited stuff is gone now and those things will b more expensive. unded yeti/naga/oni which prices were already getting higher every week. Altho a lot less people who can afford it. so if u own unded limited minipets its gonna b harder to sell but ur gonna get more money for it. and lets asume most players that have 1000e+ are hardcore players that actually care about their wealth and won't sell their stuff for cheap. its gonna go up. but thats not the big deal imo. cuz mostly High end guild(pvp/Pve) got hit a lot of knoweledge is dissapeared from the game Because people that havent been banned lost their buddies to SC with or pvp with. so yeah this whole bann thing set Guild wars 2 years back High End wise. Which makes this update the most effective SC nerf that anet did this last 1.5/1year. cuz everyone thats not kinda into sc's knows that Shadow form is still lol and High end areas were still easy to farm.
Anyway anet GG and to all the qq'ers on gwg here. go play the game instead of qq'ing on forums and stop acting jalous because you've been denied to every high end guild in the game. go vq normal mode area's!
Mavy
Probably no more Kanaxais in game... GG
talon994
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Originally Posted by Zahr Dalsk
I'm gonna say a decrease in value as demand drops.
Bot users = farm gold = buy ecto to store more. Without them? Less ecto purchase. Supply? AFAIK there were no ecto farm bots. And there are still many ectos out there unless the power traders were also botting (unlikely), and seeing as power traders have always been the main location of ecto... |
Sirius Bsns
Alot of items are now gone, so player demand will most likely increase. On the other side of the coin, all those "banned" players may've been a part of that "demand", so we'd have to factor both of those cases when evaluating the in-game economy. It may even out, or it may lessen the spikes in pricing.
-Martian-
Thinking about what many ppl posted here and in other threads...why care about lost pixels?
an example...few rare minis are gone forever...
...and?
My life is still confortable.
an example...few rare minis are gone forever...
...and?
My life is still confortable.