Mission Impossible! Code in Polar Bear

Acehole2006

Acehole2006

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

United Kingdom Essex

Fight For The Win

Mo/

I mean this is going to sound more like a cry for help but after 3 years trying for Mini Polar Bear and well over 3000 runs total, im now obviously believing (amongst others) that this just wont ever happen.

Looking at prices in town and forum for unded is like 1300e and ded 650e (approx).

QUESTION is..... Would it be better if they inscreased the chance from like 0.02ish (quoted wiki) to like 0.3?. I mean price would be effected but im sure this pet would still make like 500e unded and 150ded but would make alot more players happy.

me personally im after the mini-pet not that gold it brings in. 3 years of trying though com on.... ,well meanwhile i wont give up.

Hobbs

Hobbs

Desert Nomad

Join Date: May 2006

Organised Spam [OS]

W/

First the Art Contest thread now this? Don't you understand some things are supposed to be rare and exclusive?

A E L

A E L

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2010

Spaghetti Land

???We Are The 1 Percent ??? [?????????] ??? ??? ???

N/

Or instead of trying to get one , save up money and just buy one then be happy with it

Lanier

Lanier

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2010

[Pink]

P/

I agree with the OP. It is fine if things are rare and exclusive but nothing should be rare and exclusive to the extent mini polar bears currently are

Chasing Squirrels

Chasing Squirrels

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acehole2006 View Post
I mean this is going to sound more like a cry for help but after 3 years trying for Mini Polar Bear and well over 3000 runs total, im now obviously believing (amongst others) that this just wont ever happen.

Looking at prices in town and forum for unded is like 1300e and ded 650e (approx).

QUESTION is..... Would it be better if they inscreased the chance from like 0.02ish (quoted wiki) to like 0.3?. I mean price would be effected but im sure this pet would still make like 500e unded and 150ded but would make alot more players happy.

me personally im after the mini-pet not that gold it brings in. 3 years of trying though com on.... ,well meanwhile i wont give up.
With all those hours you wasted you could have farmed the 1300 ectos to buy one....

irundroks

irundroks

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Mar 2008

I don't even know

Through The Eyes Of The Dragon

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acehole2006 View Post
me personally im after the mini-pet not that gold it brings in. 3 years of trying though com on.... ,well meanwhile i wont give up.
u got the right attitude. now go for it.

LifeInfusion

LifeInfusion

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

in the midline

E/Mo

After farming SD this year I am going after a Mini polar bear. Not because it's expensive, but because I collect minis and there's no other way to get it since people charge absurd amounts for them. (Come on, 1000+ ectos? That's like 2 sets of wintergreen items)

FengShuiDove

FengShuiDove

Forge Runner

Join Date: Sep 2007

Trinity of the Ascended [ToA]

A/

I try to forget that the MPB even drops out of that chest. It helps a little.

Think of it this way: the first year the MPB came out, it wasn't even discovered until one of the later days of the entire 2 week long festival. It's pretty clear ANet wants to it be, and to remain, incredibly rare.

As for the comparison between this and the art contest thread, OP here is voicing a pretty legitimate gripe about end-chests. It's absolutely unfair that someone can do SoO 100 times and never get a BDS while someone just passing through for Master of the North title can luck out and get one. It's not skill or effort based. ANet has shown that their stance has changed on this based on the dungeon rewards system in GW2.

Spiritz

Forge Runner

Join Date: Apr 2007

DMFC

Way i see it the bear is a diff case - its not a case of he/she is limited edition but the daft uber low drop.
To get one you either have to buy one or be extreme uber lucky and have one drop.
Why not make it more fair to the community and have a much higher drop chance - so what if its 2 weeks that it can be farmed but at least everyone will have a chance to get it - its not limited edition so who cares if this year 4 thousand of them were got . Think of it as a nice gift from anet rather than a high cost mini - prices drop who`d care , we get new celestial minis each year from gifts yet we have better odds at getting one.
Not all of us go by a minis value - we are not status driven / braggin rights and some may have a mini worth over 100k and not spend time thinking its worth.
i cba with the quest this year coz i know im no way going to get one drop and wasting my time trying when i could be doing other quests etc .

IlikeGW

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Aug 2005

It's a 9.5 million gold drop. You're not going to get one any more than you're going to win the lottery today. Just ignore the stupid mind games like that, and go straight for the exploitable farms that actually make money. And I'm sorry you want the mini, but it will never happen. It doesn't really matter if you get one or not so why waste the time unless you don't care if you waste the time.

Acehole2006

Acehole2006

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

United Kingdom Essex

Fight For The Win

Mo/

Im actaully a very patient person and will be there to the end trying. i remember last wintersday waiting for rift warden to vanish before my eyes but trying to get every last run in.

I understand what people are saying in regards to "why not just buy 1", I could buy this mini if i saved up a bit for it. So much more i want to spend money on though like wisdom, zaishen title.
Tough then? well no....

3 classes of earner for me.... low end=never seen 100k, mid-class 100-1000k and high-class 1000k+. i consider myself mid class and feel lucky enough to be able to put my money down on this.

but for the low-class earners in the game why should they be forgotton?. Its ok for us to say "im gonna buy 1".... what about the people who cant?. they should have a chance at the drop i feel.

Veldan

Veldan

Academy Page

Join Date: Nov 2010

R/D

I feel the same way as the OP. Imo GW isn't the game for expensive uber items, go play any random MMO for that. GW is to be enjoyable for everyone, and I personally think it shouldn't be so that items currently still obtainable in-game are so ridiculously rare and expensive. It's logical that limited release mini's and max q7 items are impossible to get for the majority of the players, since those can't be dropped anymore. But items that can be dropped, should be there for all players, not for the 0,01% that's lucky or the 0,01% thats super rich.

Winry Rockbell

Winry Rockbell

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dyeane View Post
For those looking to buy, this may come in handy:
http://argos.soft.free.fr/GwEstimato...rch=polar+bear
For those telling OP's to just buy the mini, i think its more fun to actually get your own drop.
Anyone can save up for Polar Bear. e.g. Mia Quickening spams WTB Mini Pet whole day n try to buy em for like 1k ea n resell to make hugh profit, ultra boring but it works. cos heaps of noobs don't know the prices on mini pets. or you can hang out at GToB n buy zkeys for 5k ea n resell for 6k ea, etc. Its not hard to make 30-40e per day if u wanna spam for hours.

HellScreamS

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Aug 2009

wouldn't you like to know?

^yea KFC just subscribed to me for 1 year^

P/

honestly, what's this ranting all about? You need to have some issues if you don't realize that in a game where you could get a weapon and some armor with max specs on them you'd end up spending about 30.000 gold in cash [talking about fully runed and upgraded], everything that matters is prestige. Now where would all this prestige go if everybody had polar bears? There needs to be a visual line to separate the categories of players, hardcore farmers+luckers from the casual players. 'Nuff said.

FengShuiDove

FengShuiDove

Forge Runner

Join Date: Sep 2007

Trinity of the Ascended [ToA]

A/

Quote:
Originally Posted by HellScreamS View Post
There needs to be a visual line to separate the categories of players, hardcore farmers+luckers from the casual players
You're partially correct. Hardcore > Lucky > Casual

Not Hardcore = Lucky >>> Casual

You're in an elite guild that does high-end stuff at the top of the game. I suppose I've never been in your shoes, but it seems like I'd prefer to be rewarded based on how much I've done and the things I've learned about the game than a random chest drop. Once.

sandor

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2010

Do you know?

Shore Headcrab Society

R/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chasing Squirrels View Post
With all those hours you wasted you could have farmed the 1300 ectos to buy one....
True true. And I don't agree with the OP just keep it the way it is.

Haggis of Doom

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: May 2009

TGB

W/

Quote:
Originally Posted by FengShuiDove View Post
You're partially correct. Hardcore > Lucky > Casual

Not Hardcore = Lucky >>> Casual

You're in an elite guild that does high-end stuff at the top of the game. I suppose I've never been in your shoes, but it seems like I'd prefer to be rewarded based on how much I've done and the things I've learned about the game than a random chest drop. Once.
You're forgetting something here.

The lucky player who gets 1 mini polar bear drop once and who is otherwise fairly casual will:

1. sell it and be no more visually prestigious than the 1000s of mindless permasins out there with 1000 ectos who can't even tell -2/stance is better than -5/20%. And then, guess what? The prestige goes to the guy who bought it and who is likely a hardcore farmer of some sort.

2. keep it and not feel that prestigious, merely lucky. People in town seeing it will ohhh and ahhh at his/her luckiness. As a casual player, he/she will enjoy the attention for a little while but ultimately won't care. Someone who doesn't care about prestige is hence, not rewarded with it since prestige is an opinion that requires the recipient to acknowledge it.

You are rewarded for being a competent player. You don't fail missions like some. You mod your heroes appropriately. Vanity and competence don't always go hand-in-hand in the world. Just look around and you'll see :P

As for the luck factor in GW, I'd say keep it. If reward is always directly proportional to effort, it would feel like work. Some randomness helps keep the excitement (okay, probably not if you've opened the damn chest 2000 times, but it's exciting for someone opening it for the 1st/2nd time).

Acehole2006

Acehole2006

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

United Kingdom Essex

Fight For The Win

Mo/

Its great to see all the feedback even from people who disagree and show valid points also. That is what this post intended to do, set out to find what people think.

This mini is High-end for sure and has been made such. But again in my opinion it has been made 2 high. im not saying make it as common as lunar fortune rewards such as cestial ox/rat etc, but just to make it more common that a grain of sand in the crystal desert.

SpyderArachnid

SpyderArachnid

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2008

United States

Lords Of Noh [LoN]

Me/

It's a vanity item. If you want it, work for it.

Now if it was an item that actually meant something (armor/weapon) that was better than anything out there (stat wise), then yes, feel free to complain.

But seeing as it is just a vanity item, the drop rate on it is just fine. Vanity is something you have to work for. Anet has made all the items you will ever NEED (armor/weapon), easy to get. If you want something purely for vanity sakes, you have to work harder for it.

Acehole2006

Acehole2006

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

United Kingdom Essex

Fight For The Win

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpyderArachnid View Post
It's a vanity item. If you want it, work for it.

Now if it was an item that actually meant something (armor/weapon) that was better than anything out there (stat wise), then yes, feel free to complain.

But seeing as it is just a vanity item, the drop rate on it is just fine. Vanity is something you have to work for. Anet has made all the items you will ever NEED (armor/weapon), easy to get. If you want something purely for vanity sakes, you have to work harder for it.
Agree with what your saying, but im running 2 accounts all event long last 3 years and no luck lol. I would still feel the same if it dropped for me.

chullster

chullster

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: May 2008

Blighty, Land of bad weather and plucky Brits

R.I.P. DJ HMS [BZRK]

The drop rate would be fine if the mini wasn't a "cute" one.

Any other male players, who have a girlfriend or wife who plays GW will know what I mean.

"Oww the Panda/Polar Bear is soooo cute! I want one!"

She would trashcan a kanaxi or vizu and not bat an eyelid, but please anet, any more cute minis, make them cheap and easy to get please.

Acehole2006

Acehole2006

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

United Kingdom Essex

Fight For The Win

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by chullster View Post
The drop rate would be fine if the mini wasn't a "cute" one.

Any other male players, who have a girlfriend or wife who plays GW will know what I mean.

"Oww the Panda/Polar Bear is soooo cute! I want one!"

She would trashcan a kanaxi or vizu and not bat an eyelid, but please anet, any more cute minis, make them cheap and easy to get please.
Rofl!!!!! +1

novawhiz

novawhiz

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Mar 2006

A/

Dunno what i expected when i clicked on a thread titled "Mission Impossible! Code in Polar Bear" but this wasn't really it

mechanizeddeath

mechanizeddeath

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Nov 2005

As a boy I spent much time in these lands.

Peppermint Candy Canes [CC]

N/R

I just laughed when I learned how rare it was. No, I'm not going to get that, ever.

Your tale reminds me of myself during Wintersday 05. That's when the Icy Dragon Sword began dropping, unannounced, in Mineral Springs. I wanted one so bad that I spent nearly the entire event farming for it. Unlike the mini polar bear, I actually saw it drop, just not for me.

Eventually I gave up, told myself it was just a skin and no different from the sword I already had. I decided my time would be better spent on things that actually dropped for me and thus could be sold, and before I knew it, I had enough cash for Obsidian armor.

Chasing Squirrels

Chasing Squirrels

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acehole2006 View Post
Agree with what your saying, but im running 2 accounts all event long last 3 years and no luck lol. I would still feel the same if it dropped for me.
just because you run it more often doesn't mean the drop rate will increase

Acehole2006

Acehole2006

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

United Kingdom Essex

Fight For The Win

Mo/

Wished it was like a fruit machine the more you pump it will eventually pay out lol. Seems no matter how hard you work for this it just dont happen. I could be running 20 accounts for 3 events and still not get it.

Voodoo Rage

Voodoo Rage

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Mar 2008

Sacramento, CA

Geezers

R/

Do you think it would be fair to the people who worked hard to either get one or buy one to have the value massively deflated arbitrarily like that?

sixdartbart

sixdartbart

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2005

Peace Machine GRRR [DiE]

W/N

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acehole2006 View Post
Seems no matter how hard you work for this it just dont happen. I could be running 20 accounts for 3 events and still not get it.
afking a quest on multiple accounts = "hard work"?

Acehole2006

Acehole2006

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

United Kingdom Essex

Fight For The Win

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by sixdartbart View Post
afking a quest on multiple accounts = "hard work"?
i was thinking more alone the lines of time spent doing it.

Tom Swift

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Aug 2007

Well the mini polar bear fiasco has been been really bad design from the beginning - that rare of a drop should never have been put in game, especially over such a limited time span. I don't mind the minis from art contests but as a drop - it was just stupid thinking on the designers' part.

Even more of an embarrassment that it has been left that way for a number of years.

But meh -whatever, not moving on to GW 2 anyway so I stopped caring and just make a run through when I'm really bored.

obastable

obastable

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Nov 2005

Mo/

@ Voodoo, it would be no different than many other items that Anet has arbitrarily destroyed the value of. HoD sword anyone? Used to be the most expensive item in the game & now it's comparably worthless. I don't find the "value" and "economy" arguments to be valid against adding/removing/modifying anything ... and neither has Anet in the past.

caballo_oscuro

caballo_oscuro

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Aug 2008

Aura

Mathematically speaking, your odds of getting a drop on the first go are exactly the same as your odds of getting a drop on the 5000th go. It's like winning the lottery. Just because you keep playing the same numbers, it doesn't mean you're going to get a win any time soon.

Each time you play, the game is reset and you start fresh. Statistically speaking, the number of games that are played will yield a drop every x number of drops over the number of people playing the game, and the more often you play it the more likely that on this turn you will be that x. Over the course of time that the game is played, you may be in a better position to get a drop but there is still no guarantee you will ever get one.

If you want to spend your time playing for a very rare item, expect that you probably won't win. Ever. That's how games of chance are designed, and why Vegas, the lottery, bookmakers, horse racing and boxing fights are such great money makers for the ones in control of the game. They make it so overall the punter is unlikely to benefit.

RedDog91

RedDog91

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Oct 2007

Farming for Nick gifts

R/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chasing Squirrels View Post
just because you run it more often doesn't mean the drop rate will increase
This.
its 0.02% chance per run, not 0.02% overall. You could do 500,000 runs and still be no closer to getting it.

ecknine

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jul 2006

Belgium

N/A

lol, I didn't knew they where that rare. well, I know they were rare the first year, but I thought they became random now, because a buddy of mine got one on his 2nd run this year :s

Necrin Blaed

Necrin Blaed

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jan 2008

LaZy

Me/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Veldan View Post
I feel the same way as the OP. Imo GW isn't the game for expensive uber items, go play any random MMO for that. GW is to be enjoyable for everyone, and I personally think it shouldn't be so that items currently still obtainable in-game are so ridiculously rare and expensive. It's logical that limited release mini's and max q7 items are impossible to get for the majority of the players, since those can't be dropped anymore. But items that can be dropped, should be there for all players, not for the 0,01% that's lucky or the 0,01% thats super rich.
I disagree entirely. Guild Wars is about vanity. Attaining uber rare items and getting stupid, useless titles is what it's about, period. While we're at it, make Crystalline Swords more common.

So what if you can't win the rare drop lottery? Work for a few months and you'll get the amount of ecto you need to buy the thing anyway. A stack of ectos/month is not difficult to do. If you really want it, put the work into getting it.

Acehole2006

Acehole2006

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

United Kingdom Essex

Fight For The Win

Mo/

players shouldent have to BUY these items though. might as well just a merchant who sells for X amount and not bother having the quest in the first place then.

Who go's there?...... It is me and ive saved all this money to buy this minipet i dident even have to do the quest once great aint it.

Dzjudz

Dzjudz

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jun 2005

gwpvx.com/user:dzjudz

Quote:
Originally Posted by caballo_oscuro View Post
Mathematically speaking, your odds of getting a drop on the first go are exactly the same as your odds of getting a drop on the 5000th go. It's like winning the lottery. Just because you keep playing the same numbers, it doesn't mean you're going to get a win any time soon.

Each time you play, the game is reset and you start fresh. Statistically speaking, the number of games that are played will yield a drop every x number of drops over the number of people playing the game, and the more often you play it the more likely that on this turn you will be that x. Over the course of time that the game is played, you may be in a better position to get a drop but there is still no guarantee you will ever get one.

If you want to spend your time playing for a very rare item, expect that you probably won't win. Ever. That's how games of chance are designed, and why Vegas, the lottery, bookmakers, horse racing and boxing fights are such great money makers for the ones in control of the game. They make it so overall the punter is unlikely to benefit.
Sure but you have a higher chance of receiving an MPB if you make 5000 runs than if you make 1 run.

Let's say your chance of an MPB is 0.02%.

If you make 1 run, you have a 0.02% chance of getting an MPB.

If you make 5000 runs, you have a 63.22% chance of getting at least one MPB.

Of course, no matter how many runs you make, you will never have a 100% chance of getting one, it will just approach (but never reach) 100% the more runs you make.

Gli

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2005

Quote:
Originally Posted by Necrin Blaed View Post
So what if you can't win the rare drop lottery? Work for a few months and you'll get the amount of ecto you need to buy the thing anyway.
Doesn't work as a general tactic.

Sierraa

Sierraa

Supastar~ ???

Join Date: May 2006

USA [GMT -7]

Sierraas Asian Harem [love]

Me/

I understand the drop rate is low, but you have 3 choices to get a Mini Polar Bear.

* Have someone give you one.
* Buy it.
* Farm for it.

:] Stop QQing. Closed~