I have seen quite a few ads to
buy tokens for 40k per stack and a couple for 50k per stack. Multiply that times three to find price of lunar fortune stack.- 120-150k. That's the in-season price right now. I'll assume they work like other popular personal cons ... the supply goes down off season while the demand stays the same, so the market price tends to go up.
(Granted, off-season, the demand will be only for the fortunes, not tokens, because the NPC who changes tokens to fortunes is not always around.)
It may seem outrageous to some people. That's fine, there's no requirement that you pay it. However, there DO seem to be people willing to pay those prices.
As I understand it, the demand for fortunes is from their use as a pcon. There is one possible effect from a lunar fortune which gives a +1 attribute boost that lasts as long as you're in a zone. This boost stacks with other +1 att boosts from different consumables; I hear it even stacks with +1 att boosts from prior years' fortunes.
For
Red Gift Bags, I would try to guess PC based on the odds of what they give.
I *think* spammable sweet and party points are about 100g each now, but I am not at all sure if that's really the market price or not. Adjust the calculations below as necessary if that number is wrong.
5% chance of Bottle of Rice Wine (1pt booze) : value 200g min., sold to merchant
5% chance of Red Bean Cake (2 spam sweet) : value 200g min., sold to merchant
15% chance of Sugary Blue Drink (1 spam sweet) : value 100g sold to other players
60% chance of three fireworks (3 spam party) : value 300g sold to other players
10% chance of 10 lunar tokens : value (40 to 50k per stack right now / 25) = 1.6-2k
5% chance of 100g : value 100g
So multiply the chances by the value of the drops and add them up, you get the rough value of red gift bag = 380-420g each (if I did the math right and have the right market prices for things sold to other players.)
I would guess the actual market price of the bags is a little lower, as buyers would be hoping to buy them cheaper and then go to the trouble of opening them, sorting, and selling the results in more convenient lots to folks looking for just one specific thing. I'm not sure if the market works like that or not.
Cheers & GL