Mini Polar Bear Drops

Since the quest is back I thought it might be a good idea to keep track if any polar bear minis do drop this year.

Good luck to all the polar bear hunters!

Pol

which quest would that might be?

http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/The_Strength_of_Snow
http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Straight_to_the_Heart

Those quests.

I'll be doing a few runs now and then, but my hopes aren't high.

Saw someone selling in spamadan, she said that she got one on her 17th run.

Is the quest eaven live now?


edit
ops

Is a old post here on guru with people they got Polar bear as drop in the past Wintersday ....it was closed or....i can find it :/

That thread was deleted I believe a while ago. Done a couple of runs today nothing of note

Pol

Considering the wiki, the drop rates is lower than 0,02%.
Which means that you have to do an average of 5000runs.
Gl

Or maybe just 1 run is enough.. u never know.

Or maybe 10.000. That's why I said that it is an average.
It's the number of runs which must be completed to hope getting the mini.

Not even then it's possible to get it.

If the chance is 0.02% then in order to get a better than 50:50 chance of getting at least one mini you need to do 3466 runs.

If you did 5000 runs you would have a 73% chance
If you did 10000 runs you would have a 86.5% chance

Do you feel lucky?

Can't win if you don't play Good Luck to All!

That isn't entirely true. You're following gambler's fallacy, which is essentially saying that if you lose consistently at an improbable event, then you're bound to win in the future. The events are unaffected by each other. It's like saying if you flip a coin 5000 times and get 5000 heads, you're bound to get Tails on the 5001st flip. Your odds are always, and will always be 0.02%.

1/5000

Funny thing about odds is they are never certain. You can do 20000 runs and never get one.

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I couldn't have said it better myself

You have not understood my post, on any level.

I shall go on

eg.
15,000 runs give you a 95% chance
20,000 runs give you a 98.2 % chance
25,000 runs give you a 99.3% chance
30,000 runs give you a 99.75% chance

etc. you will never get 100% chance, yet you seem to assume that is what I have said!

Perhaps you meant to reply to:

in which case your post would have been more correct.

You are assuming that every run increases your chance. This is right, and wrong at the same time. Yes more runs gives you more chances at getting a MPB, but this doesn't increase the percentage because each run is a different instance, and each instance has a .02% chance.

You also aren't understanding his post...he never said that every run gave you more of a chance. He said that if you ran 15,000 runs, you would have a 95% chance of getting the drop at least once. Which, given the estimated drop rate, is an entirely correct statement.

yes post here if you get a polar bear, so the power traders (like pol) can pm you with a lowball offer and resell it for profit.

Certainly hope thats not the case, would rather poeple just say otherwise.

Just to give people an idea ive seen 2 being sold for like 1500ecto +30ambraces. So be looking for offers around that kinda price.