Since the quest is back I thought it might be a good idea to keep track if any polar bear minis do drop this year.
Good luck to all the polar bear hunters!
Pol
Mini Polar Bear Drops
Polgara Val
thunder boy
which quest would that might be?
Avatar of Me
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Originally Posted by thunder boy
which quest would that might be?
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http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Straight_to_the_Heart
Those quests.
I'll be doing a few runs now and then, but my hopes aren't high.
Kairowa
Saw someone selling in spamadan, she said that she got one on her 17th run.
Olle
Is the quest eaven live now?
edit
ops
edit
ops
Masacru Ak
Is a old post here on guru with people they got Polar bear as drop in the past Wintersday ....it was closed or....i can find it :/
Polgara Val
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Originally Posted by Masacru Ak
Is a old post here on guru with people they got Polar bear as drop in the past Wintersday ....it was closed or....i can find it :/
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Pol
Arkon Necrocannibal
Considering the wiki, the drop rates is lower than 0,02%.
Which means that you have to do an average of 5000runs.
Gl
Which means that you have to do an average of 5000runs.
Gl
Dn M
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Originally Posted by Arkon Necrocannibal
Considering the wiki, the drop rates is lower than 0,02%.
Which means that you have to do an average of 5000runs. Gl |
Arkon Necrocannibal
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Originally Posted by Dn M
Or maybe just 1 run is enough.. u never know.
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It's the number of runs which must be completed to hope getting the mini.
Kairowa
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Originally Posted by Arkon Necrocannibal
Or maybe 10.000. That's why I said that it is an average.
It's the number of runs which must be completed to hope getting the mini. |
Fay Vert
If the chance is 0.02% then in order to get a better than 50:50 chance of getting at least one mini you need to do 3466 runs.
If you did 5000 runs you would have a 73% chance
If you did 10000 runs you would have a 86.5% chance
Do you feel lucky?
If you did 5000 runs you would have a 73% chance
If you did 10000 runs you would have a 86.5% chance
Do you feel lucky?
Wyndy
Can't win if you don't play 
Good Luck to All!
Good Luck to All!
WarcryOfTruth
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Originally Posted by Fay Vert
If the chance is 0.02% then in order to get a better than 50:50 chance of getting at least one mini you need to do 3466 runs.
If you did 5000 runs you would have a 73% chance If you did 10000 runs you would have a 86.5% chance Do you feel lucky? |
Swingline
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Originally Posted by Avatar of Me
I'm not a math whiz or anything, but isn't 0.02% equal to 1/200?
Or does my understanding of decimal placement deceive me? Edit: I was forgetting to move the decimal place to account for the % sign. This is why I'm not a math whiz... Double edit: Perhaps a mod should just delete this post. |
Funny thing about odds is they are never certain. You can do 20000 runs and never get one.
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Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth
That isn't entirely true. You're following gambler's fallacy, which is essentially saying that if you lose consistently at an improbable event, then you're bound to win in the future. The events are unaffected by each other. It's like saying if you flip a coin 5000 times and get 5000 heads, you're bound to get Tails on the 5001st flip. Your odds are always, and will always be 0.02%.
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Fay Vert
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Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth
That isn't entirely true. You're following gambler's fallacy, which is essentially saying that if you lose consistently at an improbable event, then you're bound to win in the future. The events are unaffected by each other. It's like saying if you flip a coin 5000 times and get 5000 heads, you're bound to get Tails on the 5001st flip. Your odds are always, and will always be 0.02%.
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I shall go on
eg.
15,000 runs give you a 95% chance
20,000 runs give you a 98.2 % chance
25,000 runs give you a 99.3% chance
30,000 runs give you a 99.75% chance
etc. you will never get 100% chance, yet you seem to assume that is what I have said!
Perhaps you meant to reply to:
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Originally Posted by Arkon Necrocannibal
Considering the wiki, the drop rates is lower than 0,02%.
Which means that you have to do an average of 5000runs. Gl |
IattackU
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Originally Posted by Fay Vert
You have not understood my post, on any level.
I shall go on eg. 15,000 runs give you a 95% chance 20,000 runs give you a 98.2 % chance 25,000 runs give you a 99.3% chance 30,000 runs give you a 99.75% chance etc. you will never get 100% chance, yet you seem to assume that is what I have said! Perhaps you meant to reply to: in which case your post would have been more correct. |
Surgo
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Originally Posted by IattackU
You are assuming that every run increases your chance. This is right, and wrong at the same time. Yes more runs gives you more chances at getting a MPB, but this doesn't increase the percentage because each run is a different instance, and each instance has a .02% chance.
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Horace Slughorn
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Originally Posted by Polgara Val
Since the quest is back I thought it might be a good idea to keep track if any polar bear minis do drop this year.
Good luck to all the polar bear hunters! Pol |
Acehole2006
Certainly hope thats not the case, would rather poeple just say otherwise.
Just to give people an idea ive seen 2 being sold for like 1500ecto +30ambraces. So be looking for offers around that kinda price.
Just to give people an idea ive seen 2 being sold for like 1500ecto +30ambraces. So be looking for offers around that kinda price.
IattackU
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Originally Posted by Horace Slughorn
yes post here if you get a polar bear, so the power traders (like pol) can pm you with a lowball offer and resell it for profit.
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Polgara Val
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Originally Posted by Horace Slughorn
yes post here if you get a polar bear, so the power traders (like pol) can pm you with a lowball offer and resell it for profit.
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Now back to the topic at hand, done a few dozens runs so far today still no luck yet
Pol
Chthon
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Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth
gambler's fallacy
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For instance, it would be incorrect to assert that the 5000th trial had a 73% chance of success because the first through 4999th trials all failed. The 5000th trial still has a 0.02% chance no matter what.
The fallacy does not apply to Fay's (correct) claim that, if you did 5000 trials, there is a 73% chance that at least one of them would be successful.
Fay is talking about the overall odds for a series of events; the fallacy concerns the odds for the next* event in a series.
(* It would be a little more accurate to say that the fallacy concerns each future trial taken individually, but it's a lot more concrete and easier to grasp if I just say "the next trial.")
Dzjudz
People replying to the (correct) odds calculation stated above by saying it's a gambler's fallacy: compare it to throwing a coin multiple times.
With 1 throw, you have a 50% chance of getting at least one heads.
With 2 throws, you have a 75% chance of getting at least one heads.
With 3 throws, you have an 87.5% chance of getting at least one heads.
As you can see, the chance of getting at least one heads in a number of throws increases with the number of throws. Of course, this chance will never get to 100%.
In mathematical terms:
1 - (1 - p) ^ k
where p is the success chance of getting the polar bear from the chest; and
where k is the number of chests opened.
Examples: p = 0.0002 (0.02%) and you do the following number of runs:
1: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 1 = 0.0002 or 0.02%
2: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 2 = 0.00039996 or 0.039996%
3: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 3 = 0.00059988 or 0.059988%
10: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 10 = 0.0019982 or 0.19982%
100: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 100 = 0.0198 or 1.98%
1000: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 1000 = 0.1812856 or 18.12856%
10000: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 10000 = 0.86469 or 86.469%
These are your chances of getting at least one polar bear in those numbers of runs. If you do 10 runs, you have about 0.2% chance of getting at least one polar bear. If you do 10000 runs, you have about 86.5% chance of getting at least one polar bear.
Note: the phrasing is critical: the chance of getting a polar bear in each next chest doesn't increase, but the chance of getting at least one polar bear does increase the more chests you open (like the chance of getting at least one heads is higher if you throw a coin 10 times than if you throw a coin 1 time).
With 1 throw, you have a 50% chance of getting at least one heads.
With 2 throws, you have a 75% chance of getting at least one heads.
With 3 throws, you have an 87.5% chance of getting at least one heads.
As you can see, the chance of getting at least one heads in a number of throws increases with the number of throws. Of course, this chance will never get to 100%.
In mathematical terms:
1 - (1 - p) ^ k
where p is the success chance of getting the polar bear from the chest; and
where k is the number of chests opened.
Examples: p = 0.0002 (0.02%) and you do the following number of runs:
1: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 1 = 0.0002 or 0.02%
2: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 2 = 0.00039996 or 0.039996%
3: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 3 = 0.00059988 or 0.059988%
10: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 10 = 0.0019982 or 0.19982%
100: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 100 = 0.0198 or 1.98%
1000: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 1000 = 0.1812856 or 18.12856%
10000: 1 - (1 - 0.0002) ^ 10000 = 0.86469 or 86.469%
These are your chances of getting at least one polar bear in those numbers of runs. If you do 10 runs, you have about 0.2% chance of getting at least one polar bear. If you do 10000 runs, you have about 86.5% chance of getting at least one polar bear.
Note: the phrasing is critical: the chance of getting a polar bear in each next chest doesn't increase, but the chance of getting at least one polar bear does increase the more chests you open (like the chance of getting at least one heads is higher if you throw a coin 10 times than if you throw a coin 1 time).
Surge goes pre
Yeah your logic makes sense, but put differently...
The difference between the analogy with a quarter and the analogy with the polar bear is that a quarter has a 50% chance heads to begin with. The polar bear drop rate is <<1% (incase << notation is unfamiliar, it means very very less than basically) If you do the math using the 0.02% drop rate I saw somewhere, to achieve the same 50% chance as you would have for a heads with 1 toss, it would take 3465 "tosses" of the Wintersday chest. An ideal 100% (never actually achievable but the limit as your odds approach 100%) would would take upwards of 23000 "tosses" of the chest.
Basically it is highly unfavorable and unrealistic to think that farming a polar bear this wintersday will yield a polar bear drop. Assuming your run takes ~10 minutes, it would take 160 days of nonstop farming to achieve that nearly 100% chance of seeing just 1 drop.
Sorry I'm a math person =P
Edit: You edited your post while I was writing mine.
The difference between the analogy with a quarter and the analogy with the polar bear is that a quarter has a 50% chance heads to begin with. The polar bear drop rate is <<1% (incase << notation is unfamiliar, it means very very less than basically) If you do the math using the 0.02% drop rate I saw somewhere, to achieve the same 50% chance as you would have for a heads with 1 toss, it would take 3465 "tosses" of the Wintersday chest. An ideal 100% (never actually achievable but the limit as your odds approach 100%) would would take upwards of 23000 "tosses" of the chest.
Basically it is highly unfavorable and unrealistic to think that farming a polar bear this wintersday will yield a polar bear drop. Assuming your run takes ~10 minutes, it would take 160 days of nonstop farming to achieve that nearly 100% chance of seeing just 1 drop.
Sorry I'm a math person =P
Edit: You edited your post while I was writing mine.
Mollie Bloom
You guys are totally dorking up the polar bear!!! <3
Reformed
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Originally Posted by Masacru Ak
Is a old post here on guru with people they got Polar bear as drop in the past Wintersday ....it was closed or....i can find it :/
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Edit: I see why we can't find the 2010 thread...somebody decided to merge the 2009 and the 2010 ones...
cosyfiep
couldnt find one from last year....but this thread was from 09...
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/m...ighlight=drops
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/m...ighlight=drops
Dzjudz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Surge goes pre
Yeah your logic makes sense, but put differently...
The difference between the analogy with a quarter and the analogy with the polar bear is that a quarter has a 50% chance heads to begin with. The polar bear drop rate is <<1% (incase << notation is unfamiliar, it means very very less than basically) If you do the math using the 0.02% drop rate I saw somewhere, to achieve the same 50% chance as you would have for a heads with 1 toss, it would take 3465 "tosses" of the Wintersday chest. An ideal 100% (never actually achievable but the limit as your odds approach 100%) would would take upwards of 23000 "tosses" of the chest. Basically it is highly unfavorable and unrealistic to think that farming a polar bear this wintersday will yield a polar bear drop. Assuming your run takes ~10 minutes, it would take 160 days of nonstop farming to achieve that nearly 100% chance of seeing just 1 drop. Sorry I'm a math person =P Edit: You edited your post while I was writing mine. |
. There is no difference between the coin and the polar bear other than a different 'p' value: 0.5 vs 0.0002. But yes, don't go farming a polar bear expecting to get one 
ACWhammy
Ladies and Gentlemen! I have solved the statistics problem!
Your chances of getting a Polar Bear are......drum roll please:
Your chances of getting a Polar Bear are......drum roll please:
Cerberus4982
I doubt anyone can manage to do 5,000 runs in the time available to do it. you need a lot of spare time. but I'm on my 33rd run or so and no polar bear. I could end up wasting all of wintersday looking for it
Kunder
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Originally Posted by Cerberus4982
I doubt anyone can manage to do 5,000 runs in the time available to do it. you need a lot of spare time. but I'm on my 33rd run or so and no polar bear. I could end up wasting all of wintersday looking for it
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Course, the one really pulling in the polar bears are the botters. Not that polar bears are any different from all the other ways of getting cash in GW.
Showtime
I dont care what the odds are... IM DUE!
Missing HB
These are indeed probabilities, but relying especially on averages... You have a 0.02% probability on getting one, so that means you should , in average, get one upon 5000 runs, but that also means you could get in average 4 upon 20000 runs, which means get those 4, for example, upon the last 300 runs...
You can do 1 run only and get a polar bear, but you can also do 50000 runs and not get any...That's the law of large numbers, upon a very huge number of runs, you should in theory have 1 bear per 5000 runs in average..
About the thread itself, i've personnaly done about 150 runs and get nothing... I did more last years but well i didn't really bother a lot this year..
You can do 1 run only and get a polar bear, but you can also do 50000 runs and not get any...That's the law of large numbers, upon a very huge number of runs, you should in theory have 1 bear per 5000 runs in average..
About the thread itself, i've personnaly done about 150 runs and get nothing... I did more last years but well i didn't really bother a lot this year..
Dzjudz
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Originally Posted by Missing HB
These are indeed probabilities, but relying especially on averages... You have a 0.02% probability on getting one, so that means you should , in average, get one upon 5000 runs, but that also means you could get in average 4 upon 20000 runs, which means get those 4, for example, upon the last 300 runs...
You can do 1 run only and get a polar bear, but you can also do 50000 runs and not get any...That's the law of large numbers, upon a very huge number of runs, you should in theory have 1 bear per 5000 runs in average.. About the thread itself, i've personnaly done about 150 runs and get nothing... I did more last years but well i didn't really bother a lot this year.. |
. Okay, that's it for the maths .
Mollie Bloom
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Originally Posted by Dzjudz
If a hundred people do 150 runs each, about 3 of them on average will get a polar bear
. Okay, that's it for the maths . |
Mcsnake85
Wow..
5000 runs? 10000?
Thats a lot of time anyway, even if you have 99% chance to get it..
5000 * 5 minutes (its the best time to do the full run) are 25000 minutes that are 416,7 hours, that are 17,36 days of farm, but 24/24 , 7/7, and you havent time to eat and sleep...maybe you can eat while you running, but at least you cant sleep..
Who want try it? LOL
5000 runs? 10000?
Thats a lot of time anyway, even if you have 99% chance to get it..
5000 * 5 minutes (its the best time to do the full run) are 25000 minutes that are 416,7 hours, that are 17,36 days of farm, but 24/24 , 7/7, and you havent time to eat and sleep...maybe you can eat while you running, but at least you cant sleep..
Who want try it? LOL
Swingline
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Originally Posted by Mcsnake85
Wow..
5000 runs? 10000? Thats a lot of time anyway, even if you have 99% chance to get it.. 5000 * 5 minutes (its the best time to do the full run) are 25000 minutes that are 416,7 hours, that are 17,36 days of farm, but 24/24 , 7/7, and you havent time to eat and sleep...maybe you can eat while you running, but at least you cant sleep.. Who want try it? LOL |
Rushin Roulette
The best way I found is to do the runs with 3 accounts and AFKing the final part. By the time you have all 3 chars at the end, the Snowmen in the first account will have finished off the Grenches. Grab the Shards/chest, zone, retake the quest and run to the end to AFK again. By that time the second account will be done and so on...
The best way is to run with a Warrior as they have the amazing skill where they can run 10% faster for a whole 5 seconds (amazing isnt it?).
The best way is to run with a Warrior as they have the amazing skill where they can run 10% faster for a whole 5 seconds (amazing isnt it?).
Dragon Masil
i do the same Rushin Roulette 
80 runs + and nothing but i will drop it !! x)
80 runs + and nothing but i will drop it !! x)