Keeping on subject of polar bear and Chances etc.....
How many do you think drop a day? or throughout the whole event.
Mini Polar Bear Drops
Acehole2006
Reformed
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Acehole2006
...or throughout the whole event.
|
Hanok Odbrook
Does it even matter? You either get one or not. The problem is the drop rate is just too low for a yearly event. It takes it to the point of absurdity that is not even remotely amusing.
Hanok
Hanok
IattackU
Last Wintersday I saw a discussion on deleting your .DAT files and then going to do the quest in hopes that when you load into the map, you would know the contents of the chest because you would have to load the .DAT file for the noise of the MPB. It was an interesting theory but there was a debate whether the chest contents were determined when you clicked the chest or when you loaded the map or when it spawned etc. Was just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the idea or has there been any light shed on the way end chests work? It's a great theory.
Olle
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Hanok Odbrook
Does it even matter? You either get one or not. The problem is the drop rate is just too low for a yearly event. It takes it to the point of absurdity that is not even remotely amusing.
Hanok |
drop rate is so low.
Celestials ? 0.5 %~~
Polarbear? 0,02%
Zero point zero two
It's so low i cant eaven describe it.
----------
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by IattackU
-snip-
|
(sorry for double post, noone has ever told me how to MQ)
(If needed ill delete this post)
(guru is so amazing so it did this itself, i didnt eaven merge anything O.o)
(will stop doing this now)
(okay, now)
shodannet
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rushin Roulette
The best way I found is to do the runs with 3 accounts and AFKing the final part.
|
Tullzinski
After doing SOS since 2007 I finally hit the lottery a mini polar bear dropped for me. Each year I would take 250 cupcakes and 250 pumpkin pies and usually never ran out of either stack. It was a decent way to track my approx runs. Estimate between 200 to 250 runs each year over wintersday festival. So around 800 to 900 runs the MPB dropped.
Did not do many runs this year because of Skyrim. Only did 32 runs this year, after that 32nd run I had to clean my shorts. Do not give up trying
mpb3.JPG
added a pic for warcry
Did not do many runs this year because of Skyrim. Only did 32 runs this year, after that 32nd run I had to clean my shorts. Do not give up trying
mpb3.JPG
added a pic for warcry
Shadowmoon
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by IattackU
Last Wintersday I saw a discussion on deleting your .DAT files and then going to do the quest in hopes that when you load into the map, you would know the contents of the chest because you would have to load the .DAT file for the noise of the MPB. It was an interesting theory but there was a debate whether the chest contents were determined when you clicked the chest or when you loaded the map or when it spawned etc. Was just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the idea or has there been any light shed on the way end chests work? It's a great theory.
|
Family Guy
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Tullzinski
MPB Win
|
Gratz! 230 runs and counting!
Thowra Wildfire
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Tullzinski
After doing SOS since 2007 I finally hit the lottery a mini polar bear dropped for me. Each year I would take 250 cupcakes and 250 pumpkin pies and usually never ran out of either stack. It was a decent way to track my approx runs. Estimate between 200 to 250 runs each year over wintersday festival. So around 800 to 900 runs the MPB dropped.
Did not do many runs this year because of Skyrim. Only did 32 runs this year, after that 32nd run I had to clean my shorts. Do not give up trying |
WarcryOfTruth
Is he not going to post his screenshot of it? Otherwise how can we believe he got it? o.o
bhagwad
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth
That isn't entirely true. You're following gambler's fallacy, which is essentially saying that if you lose consistently at an improbable event, then you're bound to win in the future. The events are unaffected by each other. It's like saying if you flip a coin 5000 times and get 5000 heads, you're bound to get Tails on the 5001st flip. Your odds are always, and will always be 0.02%.
|
This is simple probability mathematics. The gambler's fallacy is just that - a fallacy.
Acehole2006
this is my 4th year at trying and I do about thousand runs each year, however im multi accounting this year and have done thousand runs already so on about 5000 total now and nothing 
.
.
Hugh Jarse
Since lim 0.98^n =0
nāā
then if we have an infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number of keyboards with an infinite number of cupcakes, we may still get one.
103 blank runs so far.
nāā
then if we have an infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number of keyboards with an infinite number of cupcakes, we may still get one.
103 blank runs so far.
AmoebaInfectionTechnique
I think you can get it in your first run. LOL.
byteme!
I got my mini polar 2 years ago on the "25th" of December. I did like 600+ runs with 2 accounts. Tried a similar amount last year got nothing and realized I'm wasting my time. With the amount of effort put in I could've done other things to make money and just buy the %$#'n thing. For the last 3 months I have completely stopped playing. Regardless what updates come about what I`ve realized in 6 years of GW is I`m playing and doing the same repetitive crap everyday and there`s a severe lack of compelling content worth doing.
Acehole2006
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by byteme!
I got my mini polar 2 years ago on the "25th" of December. I did like 600+ runs with 2 accounts. Tried a similar amount last year got nothing and realized I'm wasting my time. With the amount of effort put in I could've done other things to make money and just buy the %$#'n thing. For the last 3 months I have completely stopped playing. Regardless what updates come about what I`ve realized in 6 years of GW is I`m playing and doing the same repetitive crap everyday and there`s a severe lack of compelling content worth doing.
|
While I agree you can buy this thing, I actually would not pay the price of it and would rather go without. But I wil still try to get it for my HoM while the quest is active.
Swingline
Agree that .02% is too low of a drop rate for an item available 2 weeks out of the year. They should revamp Secret Lair of the Snowman as a snowball map and add the MPB to the end chest.
99% of all gamers fall into this trap. They become obsessed with a game to the point their doing ridiculous things such as grinding repetitive content.
GWs is no where near a bad game, people just dedicate too much time on a single game and burn themselves out. The trick is to not give into the addictive e-peen traps with multiplayer games. People are so eager to be first and/or the best that it ruins the game for almost everyone trying to be casual, including themselves.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by byteme!
I got my mini polar 2 years ago on the "25th" of December. I did like 600+ runs with 2 accounts. Tried a similar amount last year got nothing and realized I'm wasting my time. With the amount of effort put in I could've done other things to make money and just buy the %$#'n thing. For the last 3 months I have completely stopped playing. Regardless what updates come about what I`ve realized in 6 years of GW is I`m playing and doing the same repetitive crap everyday and there`s a severe lack of compelling content worth doing.
|
GWs is no where near a bad game, people just dedicate too much time on a single game and burn themselves out. The trick is to not give into the addictive e-peen traps with multiplayer games. People are so eager to be first and/or the best that it ruins the game for almost everyone trying to be casual, including themselves.
Showtime
The low drop rate is fine since the goal is to keep people trying for the lottery. I wish Halloween had a mini with similar drop rate.
I just disagree with them giving out really cute mini's with such low drop rates or making them ultra rare like the panda. I wish they would have had the foresight to make polar bears and pandas white bday gifts so that people who want cute can have it and collectors/power traders can still have their collectable whip tails etc. (Yes it's subjective, but trust me, more people think those bears are cuter.) Making ultra cute minis ultra rare just leaves tons of people who would love to have one, but will never be able to afford it.
GL I hope something glitches and 1000's start dropping and everyone who wants one gets one this Christmas.
I just disagree with them giving out really cute mini's with such low drop rates or making them ultra rare like the panda. I wish they would have had the foresight to make polar bears and pandas white bday gifts so that people who want cute can have it and collectors/power traders can still have their collectable whip tails etc. (Yes it's subjective, but trust me, more people think those bears are cuter.) Making ultra cute minis ultra rare just leaves tons of people who would love to have one, but will never be able to afford it.
GL I hope something glitches and 1000's start dropping and everyone who wants one gets one this Christmas.
ruksak
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Showtime
The low drop rate is fine since the goal is to keep people trying for the lottery. I wish Halloween had a mini with similar drop rate.
I just disagree with them giving out really cute mini's with such low drop rates or making them ultra rare like the panda. I wish they would have had the foresight to make polar bears and pandas white bday gifts so that people who want cute can have it and collectors/power traders can still have their collectable whip tails etc. (Yes it's subjective, but trust me, more people think those bears are cuter.) Making ultra cute minis ultra rare just leaves tons of people who would love to have one, but will never be able to afford it. GL I hope something glitches and 1000's start dropping and everyone who wants one gets one this Christmas. |
There's a lot of items people would love to have but can never afford them. I'm not trying to sound harsh, just straight shootin.
What I'm seeing in this thread is a lesson in futility. Contrary to popular belief, buying more than one PowerBall ticket doesn't increase your chances of winning. Why on earth would anyone want to do a thousand or more runs for the right to have a barely visible trinket standing next to their char...? Do a few runs here and there, test your luck, but don't burn yourself into the ground trying to beat the odds. Unless you consider that fun, but from the sounds of it, it ain't much fun.
Acehole2006
To be honest I think they should have made it HARD but not 99% impossible. The wintersday drop rate should have been more like 0.2 as a pose to 0.02 and then change the mini every year like the cestials. Polar Bear, White Moa, Grentch... you can make the list go on and on with different minis each year they could have come up with.
And while some peoples argument is "WELL JUST BUY THE DAMM MINIPET AND GET ON WITH YOUR LIFE" ...... this is now starting to get my down people who say this BECAUSE..... No1 Most players aint got that money and more importantly No2 if everyone said ok lets go and buy the minipet there is simply not enough Polar Bears to go round anyways so stop saying that rubbish now ty.
Trade thread on Guru right here under your eyes.... people are bidding 2300ecto and still getting outbid. War of the Wealthy.
----------
P.S please dont reply saying that is what makes a rare minipet rare :S... who does that benefit other than POWER rangers?.... A game should be made so everyone can accomplish goals. Example you dont see a game like Call Of Duty making achievements for only 1% of the players and the other 99% percent have to go without.
And while some peoples argument is "WELL JUST BUY THE DAMM MINIPET AND GET ON WITH YOUR LIFE" ...... this is now starting to get my down people who say this BECAUSE..... No1 Most players aint got that money and more importantly No2 if everyone said ok lets go and buy the minipet there is simply not enough Polar Bears to go round anyways so stop saying that rubbish now ty.
Trade thread on Guru right here under your eyes.... people are bidding 2300ecto and still getting outbid. War of the Wealthy.
----------
P.S please dont reply saying that is what makes a rare minipet rare :S... who does that benefit other than POWER rangers?.... A game should be made so everyone can accomplish goals. Example you dont see a game like Call Of Duty making achievements for only 1% of the players and the other 99% percent have to go without.
WarcryOfTruth
I think all of the conversations going on in this thread are off topic of the original idea of the thread. The thread was made to keep track of any Polar Bears that dropped, so I think that if you aren't posting anything about a Polar Bear dropping, I don't think you should post.
On topic: I have yet to see any recorded drops with screenshots. So have any dropped at all yet?
On topic: I have yet to see any recorded drops with screenshots. So have any dropped at all yet?
Tullzinski
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth
I think all of the conversations going on in this thread are off topic of the original idea of the thread. The thread was made to keep track of any Polar Bears that dropped, so I think that if you aren't posting anything about a Polar Bear dropping, I don't think you should post.
On topic: I have yet to see any recorded drops with screenshots. So have any dropped at all yet? |
Da Kenster
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Tullzinski
Maybe if you check my original post you will see that I attached a screenshot just for you. Yes that is a Naga Raincaller next to it. Lightning does strike twice.
|
Reformed
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Acehole2006
A game should be made so everyone can accomplish goals. Example you dont see a game like Call Of Duty making achievements for only 1% of the players and the other 99% percent have to go without.
|
ruksak
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Acehole2006
P.S please dont reply saying that is what makes a rare minipet rare :S... who does that benefit other than POWER rangers?.... A game should be made so everyone can accomplish goals. Example you dont see a game like Call Of Duty making achievements for only 1% of the players and the other 99% percent have to go without. |
It's funny you mention CoD. Console games are riddled with cheat codes, so that a novice player could push a few buttons and have anything and everything they want. This appeals to children that "whaaa I want one too".
CoD and many similar titles do offer exclusive content that you can only acquire by pre-ordering the game from retailers. Essentially, you don't have to accomplish anything in-game to earn these items, you don't have to try, you don't have to know what you're doing and put forth effort.....all you have to do is give them money and help move their product by pre-ordering, which incline retailers to order more of their product.
CE Devilman
45th run (after the look on the cupcake stack)
2388e+...the say
ruksak
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by CE Devilman
45th run (after the look on the cupcake stack) 2388e+...the say |
Everyone that did 5,000 runs to no avail hates you.
Acehole2006
Mini Polar Bear go's into Hall Of Monuments dont it? so yes class it as an achievment. Thanks for posting that im a cry baby though much appreciated this it, merry xmas to you also.
Anyways was sooo busy yesterday with xmas but still tried to afk farm as much as I could and on 3 accounts I think I done 100 runs between the 3. I think my total runs for this event over last couple of years is now 5500ish.
Must admit im totally bored with this quest now and think ive had enough. Sending my into a rage which has not happened on Guild Wars since the very begining and this quest for me is killing my experience. So I stop and go without like the other 99.9% of players.
Anyways was sooo busy yesterday with xmas but still tried to afk farm as much as I could and on 3 accounts I think I done 100 runs between the 3. I think my total runs for this event over last couple of years is now 5500ish.
Must admit im totally bored with this quest now and think ive had enough. Sending my into a rage which has not happened on Guild Wars since the very begining and this quest for me is killing my experience. So I stop and go without like the other 99.9% of players.
Thowra Wildfire
Congrats CE, that's a nice Xmas pressie to get
Acehole2006
OMG I was just give up then I actually got a Polar Bear
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT!!!!!!
I turn to my fantastic wife and say no thats it for me now had enough... people are getting them on 17th-43rd-25th run and clearly its just not meant to be for me.......
So she says well I was going to wait until after the event had finished to give you it incase you dident get it and YES she actually gave me a mini Polar Bear.
.
.
Now granted its not quite the same but its the thought that counts and she is honestly the best wife ever... really cheered me up that is classic funny.
P.S she dont even play games so its not like she understands or anything hehe.
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT!!!!!!
I turn to my fantastic wife and say no thats it for me now had enough... people are getting them on 17th-43rd-25th run and clearly its just not meant to be for me.......
So she says well I was going to wait until after the event had finished to give you it incase you dident get it and YES she actually gave me a mini Polar Bear.
.
.
Now granted its not quite the same but its the thought that counts and she is honestly the best wife ever... really cheered me up that is classic funny.
P.S she dont even play games so its not like she understands or anything hehe.
makosi
Considering the rate of bans (nil) per botter, it actually seems to be worth running the Strength of Snow bot. There are far too few staff at NCsoft and Anet to actual deal with them which is why Snowball ATs are macro'd out and FA/JQ are still bot-ridden to this day.
It really is carte blanche to do whatever you like, except for .dll injections.
It really is carte blanche to do whatever you like, except for .dll injections.
aspi
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by CE Devilman
http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/6134/ppolar.jpg
45th run (after the look on the cupcake stack) 2388e+...the say |
ruksak
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Acehole2006
OMG I was just give up then I actually got a Polar Bear
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT!!!!!! I turn to my fantastic wife and say no thats it for me now had enough... people are getting them on 17th-43rd-25th run and clearly its just not meant to be for me....... So she says well I was going to wait until after the event had finished to give you it incase you dident get it and YES she actually gave me a mini Polar Bear. . . Now granted its not quite the same but its the thought that counts and she is honestly the best wife ever... really cheered me up that is classic funny. P.S she dont even play games so its not like she understands or anything hehe. |
Spiritz
Why do ppl have problems with anything thats random ?
if someone gets zero ectos on a run - they cry its nerfed.
If someone dont get a bear they err just cry.
What would you prefer for eg - a 3 million euro lottery , would you like to be the winner or share it with everyone who bought a ticket and only got 1 euro.
Its christmas and has anyone cried that santa hasnt brought them what they wanted ? ( i cant see any posts yet crying )
Having the bear as a chance win has its advantages - if everyone got a bear on each run we`ll have the problem of a few years ago - the plague of mini pigs and then players would bitch that the bears almost worthless and wintersday 2012 we`ll end up having to exchange xx bears for something else to cull its numbers.
Ive never yet had a bear in the end chest and neither will i cry about it - common reply would probably be - if you bitch about not getting it - why bother trying to get 1 ??
Next person can take my place in the preachers pulpit.
if someone gets zero ectos on a run - they cry its nerfed.
If someone dont get a bear they err just cry.
What would you prefer for eg - a 3 million euro lottery , would you like to be the winner or share it with everyone who bought a ticket and only got 1 euro.
Its christmas and has anyone cried that santa hasnt brought them what they wanted ? ( i cant see any posts yet crying )
Having the bear as a chance win has its advantages - if everyone got a bear on each run we`ll have the problem of a few years ago - the plague of mini pigs and then players would bitch that the bears almost worthless and wintersday 2012 we`ll end up having to exchange xx bears for something else to cull its numbers.
Ive never yet had a bear in the end chest and neither will i cry about it - common reply would probably be - if you bitch about not getting it - why bother trying to get 1 ??
Next person can take my place in the preachers pulpit.
Tullzinski
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Da Kenster
To be fair, your screen just indicates that the item is in your inventory, not that it necessarily dropped.
|
In case you forgot here is the original post:
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Polgara Val
Since the quest is back I thought it might be a good idea to keep track if any polar bear minis do drop this year.
Good luck to all the polar bear hunters! Pol |
I did my part believe what you want.
Gonad the Barbarian
I want to see a screenshot of the bear actually dropping, not dropped from ones inventory. Why risk losing the polar bear by taking it out and dropping it? The game could freeze all of a sudden, lose power to your computer, or some other unexpected catastrophe, and its gone forever. That would be my luck anyways. Not something I would do just to say I got one.
Reformed
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Acehole2006
Mini Polar Bear go's into Hall Of Monuments dont it? so yes class it as an achievment.
|
Fay Vert
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Gonad the Barbarian
I want to see a screenshot of the bear actually dropping, not dropped from ones inventory. Why risk losing the polar bear by taking it out and dropping it? The game could freeze all of a sudden, lose power to your computer, or some other unexpected catastrophe, and its gone forever. That would be my luck anyways. Not something I would do just to say I got one.
|
Da Kenster
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Tullzinski
Oh sorry at the time the last thing on my mind was "I better get the proper screenshot of the the bear on the ground or showing that I picked it up for Da Kenster"
In case you forgot here is the original post: Using your chain of thought anyone could take a copy of a sceenshot of the bear dropping and post it here stating it is their drop. What on earth would anyone gain from posting the got something when they did not? I did my part believe what you want. |