GW1 economic disruption coming due to GW2 - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

Daesu

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2008

24 Jan 2012 at 21:49 - 1

With the annoucement of GW2 to be released soon this year, with open beta coming April, I expect some economic disruption for GW1 once this news sinks in.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/tec...12_655976.html

I expect items that are tied to obtaining HoM points to go up in value relative to items that are not.

What do you think?

Items that would probably go up in value soon
=============================
- undedicated mini pets
- ectos and shards for those who still do not have obby armor
- rubbies and sapphires for vabbian armor
- ambers and jades for elite faction armor
- some crafting materials
- zkeys
- hero armors
- destroyer/oppressor weapons
- torment gemstones, ambraces, and uncustomized torment weapons
- elite skill tomes
- party/alcohol/sweets items

Rare skins would probably drop in value and things that have no HoM bearing like diessa chalice and rin relics.

You can continue to sit on your full stash of GW1 gold or you can move your GW1 assets into GW2 through your HoM.

Title Slave

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jul 2010

Mo/Me

24 Jan 2012 at 21:54 - 2

I highly doubt it. The whole HoM hype is long gone. Most of us already have sufficient points stacked up by now.

And don't forget. When the demand is high, more people will start farming the needed items therefore nullifying any major effects.

Daesu

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2008

24 Jan 2012 at 21:59 - 3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Title Slave

I highly doubt it. The whole HoM hype is long gone. Most of us already have sufficient points stacked up by now.

And don't forget. When the demand is high, more people will start farming the needed items therefore nullifying any major effects.

Many of these items are already being highly farmed (e.g. ectos and shards).

If you look around, go to any random few people in the game and check their HoM status by typing their in-game names into: http://hom.guildwars2.com/en/#page=welcome

...you would realize that most people do not have a 50/50 HoM yet and many don't even have a 30/50.

I think many people are just taking it easy at the moment, since ANet has only very recently announced about GW2 release.

Spiritz

Forge Runner

Join Date: Apr 2007

DMFC

24 Jan 2012 at 22:02 - 4

Zkeys i doubt will rise in price - heck they are easy to get.
party etc usualy falls in price when events are on that contains some form of related items.
Ambraces have been sort of stable for quite a while now .
Infact everything on your list is basically "Supply and Demand"

Star_Jewel

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Mar 2010

Denizen of Tyria since Feb. 2009

24 Jan 2012 at 22:05 - 5

There may be a slight price bubble due to the impending release of GW2, but shortly after I'd expect there to be a burst as people massively migrate to the hot new thing. Those who hang around in GW1, what do they have left to do but farm crap? I'd imagine there will still be slight demand from new GW2 players seeing what GW1 is all about, but I suspect supply will more than meet demand after a short while and prices will decline.

Kunder

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2010

24 Jan 2012 at 22:08 - 6

This all highly depends on whether it turns out that the HoM stuff is actually worthwhile. It could be the case that better items can be found very easily or that the skins aren't very unique, in which case the market goes the opposite direction.

I also doubt that the more expensive ways of getting titles are going to be seeing much of a change at all, as most players who still haven't maxed HoM are probably only going to care about 30/50 and will not need any of the expensive items.

Daesu

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2008

24 Jan 2012 at 22:09 - 7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kunder

This all highly depends on whether it turns out that the HoM stuff is actually worthwhile. It could be the case that better items can be found very easily or that the skins aren't very unique, in which case the market goes the opposite direction.

I know, but currently they are the ONLY confirmed means of transferring any GW1 assets into GW2.

Having some GW2 assets to start with is still better than having zero GW2 assets when the game is released.

About the titles, if they can sacrifice some GW1 gold for GW2 titles why not? If they are going to migrate to GW2 anyway, that would make sense.

Mintha Syl

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Apr 2010

24 Jan 2012 at 22:25 - 8

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

...you would realize that most people do not have a 50/50 HoM yet and many don't even have a 30/50.

I think many people are just taking it easy at the moment, since ANet has only very recently announced about GW2 release.

what you don't take into account here is that many don't care about HoM, and so you can't count everybody who doesn't have it full as people putting lot of money into economy to buy stuff to fill it. Also, it's not said that people willing to fill it are missing the buyable stuff, some could be just missing timey titles rather than money ones.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Star_Jewel

Those who hang around in GW1, what do they have left to do but farm crap?

Errrr...playing the actual game?

Anyway, I guess we can't do predictions at all on what's gonna happen.

StormDragonZ

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2008

New York

W/R

24 Jan 2012 at 22:32 - 9

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

with open beta coming April

Say what? When did this become water cooler knowledge?

As for an inflation of prices, I say let it happen. I have nothing left worth buying unless I feel like getting cosmetic enhancements for some bizarre reason... or new armor...

Daesu

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2008

24 Jan 2012 at 23:31 - 10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mintha Syl

what you don't take into account here is that many don't care about HoM, and so you can't count everybody who doesn't have it full as people putting lot of money into economy to buy stuff to fill it. Also, it's not said that people willing to fill it are missing the buyable stuff, some could be just missing timey titles rather than money ones.

True that many of them who have like 49/50 are only missing the title stuff, but most of them who are <49 are missing the buyable stuff (e.g. minipets) besides the title stuff.

How do I know? Check out their HoM status in http://hom.guildwars2.com/en/#page=welcome

Of course, I have no way of churning through the HoM status of ALL players, but doing random checks in the game gives me a rough indication.

Quote:

Originally Posted by StormDragonZ

Say what? When did this become water cooler knowledge?

As for an inflation of prices, I say let it happen. I have nothing left worth buying unless I feel like getting cosmetic enhancements for some bizarre reason... or new armor...

Ever since articles like this was posted yesterday.

MisterB

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2005

Planet Earth, Sol system, Milky Way galaxy

[ban]

W/

24 Jan 2012 at 23:33 - 11

Quote:

Originally Posted by StormDragonZ

Say what? When did this become water cooler knowledge?

http://www.arena.net/blog/dragon

It doesn't necessarily mean that the open beta will be open to everyone.

Martin Alvito

Older Than God (1)

Join Date: Aug 2006

Clan Dethryche [dth]

25 Jan 2012 at 00:43 - 12

Predictable changes are predictable.

In other words, these effects are already built into current prices. There may be a panic at the last minute (right before GW2 release) if demand badly outstrips supply. If not, prices will fall rather than rise.

Star_Jewel

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Mar 2010

Denizen of Tyria since Feb. 2009

25 Jan 2012 at 00:44 - 13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mintha Syl

Errrr...playing the actual game?

I was talking more about the people who have already taken several characters through the quests/missions/Beyond stuff and for whatever reason have no interest in GW2. Except for events or shooting the sh*t in GToB or Shing Shea, what else will they do? The z-keys, ecto/shards, etc. they either farm or casually bring into the economy by "playing the game" will I'm sure be enough to meet the diminished demand.

turbo234

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2006

WI

Mo/

25 Jan 2012 at 00:48 - 14

"around" april. not specifically in april. anet said a couple months. that could be march, april, may etc. it's not a set in stone thing yet since they didn't give an actual date.

Shayne Hawke

Departed from Tyria

Join Date: May 2007

Clan Dethryche [dth]

R/

25 Jan 2012 at 01:26 - 15

I got my whole HoM sorted out about a month after it was announced what all was needed. If there's going to be an economic disruption, I won't be feeling it.

Swingline

Forge Runner

Join Date: Sep 2010

Somewhere far away from you

The Mirror of Reason[SNOW]

W/

25 Jan 2012 at 01:37 - 16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shayne Hawke

I got my whole HoM sorted out about a month after it was announced what all was needed. If there's going to be an economic disruption, I won't be feeling it.

We already know all you care about is yourself.

There probably will be a disruption but it wont be as big as it was when HoM was first released.

BrettM

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2008

Fuzzy Physics Institute

E/

25 Jan 2012 at 02:01 - 17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Having some GW2 assets to start with is still better than having zero GW2 assets when the game is released.

The HoM rewards can't be sold and the armor/weapons have little, if any, statistical advantage over GW2 starter gear, so how are they "assets"? None of the rewards makes you either wealthier or stronger.

mrmango

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Oct 2006

Southern California

Charter Vanguard [CV]

Me/Rt

25 Jan 2012 at 02:50 - 18

I won't really care, I need a few more points here and there and I would enjoy cheaper prices for booze if that ever happens. I'll move to GW2 permanently in time, of course.

Daesu

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2008

25 Jan 2012 at 04:59 - 19

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrettM

The HoM rewards can't be sold and the armor/weapons have little, if any, statistical advantage over GW2 starter gear, so how are they "assets"? None of the rewards makes you either wealthier or stronger.

Perhaps but if certain "skins" are more desirable in the game than the default "starter gear", wouldn't you prefer them over the starter gear?

Most people would be thinking if they would even want to return to a 7 (or older)-year old GW1 after starting to play GW2 then. As long as they still have their characters in GW1, they can always re-earn the gold if needed and their characters would still be playable if they feel like playing GW1 sometimes.

The question we are addressing is, whether players would invest current GW1 gold now for better starter gear and titles for GW2 in the very near future. I think that answer would be "yes" for most players who would be migrating to GW2 from GW1.

Swingline

Forge Runner

Join Date: Sep 2010

Somewhere far away from you

The Mirror of Reason[SNOW]

W/

25 Jan 2012 at 07:37 - 20

The HoM is just a way for Anet to give out free gear to GW1 players for sticking around during GW1 end days. All the rewards are pretty much for cosmetic purposes. Some gear may give a slight advantage but its not like the people with that small advantage didn't work for it.

bennyandthejets

Academy Page

Join Date: Apr 2011

25 Jan 2012 at 08:12 - 21

Yeah I don't think this will have to much of a impact on the economy. I think the majority of the players that were/are interested in completing their HoM have already done so or are very close.

Iuris

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2006

Crazy ducks from the Forest

W/

25 Jan 2012 at 10:39 - 22

The spike has already occured a long time ago - when the HoM criteria were shown. The prices have by now already stabilized.

Also, I can't speak for the whole player base, but in my guild, most have already got as far with the HoM as they intend to.

drowze

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Apr 2006

SaGa

N/

25 Jan 2012 at 12:45 - 23

I have to agree with some (if not most) of the above posters: the craze has passed. I'd be surprised if minis/hero armor will rise in prices; destroyer/oppressor/tormented weapon prices have been stable for a long time, after they went up in price when the HoM was revealed; and most people who are working towards gwamm or 50/50 usually have enough money lying around to not be affected much... actually I'm surprised by any economy fluctuations these days, like the recent rise in shard/ecto prices. Off topic, but what's up with that ><

Mireles

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jun 2009

W/Me

25 Jan 2012 at 15:41 - 24

The economic distortion for HoM rewards already happened....

The day it came out rubies and sapphires jumped form 4k/ea to 12k/ea..... it was a very nice gravy train... and the price of minis went up especially common class minis... Arms went up a little, war supplies did not see much of a price change..... Hero Armors went up as they became more in demand....

Don't expect more change in the economy for the cause of HoM and guild wars 2, people have had the ability to work on them since it came out, the biggest change always happen when it just became available and was not known before hand by the majority of people...

The only thing you can expect.. is the price of ectos, keys, and maybe shards to go up as here are less people speed clearing and exploiting pvp.... the rest of the items will remain relatively the same as they are not produced on a farming based scale to keep up with demand.

Daesu

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2008

25 Jan 2012 at 16:31 - 25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iuris

Also, I can't speak for the whole player base, but in my guild, most have already got as far with the HoM as they intend to.

I guess that means I am in the minority then. Even though I have been playing this game for a long time, I have been spending my time experimenting on hero builds and other challenges in the game that don't necessarily work towards the HoM (e.g. HM Titan quests and WoC quests).

I also hated trading but I needed to trade in order to work towards 50/50, so I have been doing more trading lately. If you don't trade actively and you spend most of your time actually playing the game, you tend to move along slower since most of the HoM points can be obtained quickly through trading.

Silmar Alech

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Aug 2009

Europe

Tom Son [TS]

E/

25 Jan 2012 at 17:19 - 26

Have you checked the prices at the rune trader/material traders recently? For the last few weeks, prices started to increase very slowly after being somewhat stable for the last year.

There was a time where most of the runes cost only 100g - now even Ranger runes increased in price. Rune of superior vigour 30k: I never saw a higher price since I started GW (4.5 years ago). Crafting materials: the materials used for consets, resurrection scrolls and popular armour increased as well. Ectos rose to 10-11k, Obsidian shards 5.5k and above, after relatively stable prices of 9-9.5k/4k for a year. Sapphires/Rubies/Diamonds as well.

I assume more and more farmers+speed clearers leave the game due to boredom, so supply decreases and prices increase. The hall of monuments and arrival of GW2 may also play a role, but I don't think the most important one.

jazilla

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2006

Guernsey Milking Coalition[MiLk]

E/Me

25 Jan 2012 at 17:40 - 27

IDK really. I remember when mini pet prices were through the roof and they have since come down in price tremendously. Most people that care about that kind of thing are done. Maybe there will be an in flux of new people that want to see the game at least because they are interested in GW2, but I don't think that number will be significant. GW1 has a pretty stable market.

chaney

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Jan 2012

Black Hand Gang

E/Mo

25 Jan 2012 at 23:16 - 28

Most of you seem to be assuming that everyone is actually planning to leave GW1 and go to GW2. This is an invalid assumption on your part. I for one have no intention of ever going to GW2. I was very excited about it when Anet started hyping it a while back but with the revelations they have released I have lost complete interest in ever playing GW2.

Anet has completely ruined GW2 wiith too much technology (guns? really? in a fantasy game), silly new class professions (can anyone say engineer?), and rumors of changing the way players interface with the game (movement only with keyboard). GW2 is going to be a huge flop and a major disappointment.

No, some of us will simply stick to what works and continue playing GW1.

fireflyry

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jan 2007

New Zealand

A/D

26 Jan 2012 at 00:55 - 29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mintha Syl

what you don't take into account here is that many don't care about HoM, and so you can't count everybody who doesn't have it full as people putting lot of money into economy to buy stuff to fill it.

I tend to agree with this.

People who wanted it full have already maxed it...a looooonnnnng time ago, the rest aren't really bothered.The subset of new players who are only now working through it or players who may change their priorities with GW2 getting closer is imo so tiny as to have minimal, if any, effect on the market.

I don't see such "rewards" having any relevance after the first few months of play anyway.If you can't see it as being as little more than a simplistic sales technique to keep the game active and players grinding....well....yeah.

Each to their own

Kunder

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2010

26 Jan 2012 at 01:21 - 30

You also have to consider that as soon as GW2 comes out GW1 stuff becomes a lot less important. Having 10 stacks of ectos in a game which almost no one plays anymore and which is getting no new high end items to buy is worthless.

Prices may even go down. Imagine all of the current 50/50 HoM players who haven't touched the game for a year or two. They could easily return and flood the market with items as they sell or give away most of what they have before starting GW2.

Daesu

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2008

26 Jan 2012 at 06:45 - 31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kunder

Prices may even go down. Imagine all of the current 50/50 HoM players who haven't touched the game for a year or two. They could easily return and flood the market with items as they sell or give away most of what they have before starting GW2.

I can understand that prices may go down after GW2 is released. But just before GW2 is released, there may be some panic buying when people would be more free with spending their stashed gold if they have no longer term plans for them.

I think asking the people in this forum about the status of HoM may give a skewed response since I expect most people here to be relatively hardcore in trading and playing the game.

When I talked to many of the players in Gtob who do not have a 50/50 HoM yet, seems they are still working on it. To many of them coming up with the ectos and shards needed to buy an obby armor is almost an impossible dream. To many casual players, maxing HoM is going to take a very long time.

Some of them are only going for 30/50 and they are still working towards that because they hate grinding and standing in kamandan shouting prices when they can be playing the game instead.

cormac ap dunn

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jul 2007

Mystic Empires III [xMEx]

Me/

26 Jan 2012 at 06:53 - 32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

When I talked to many of the players in Gtob who do not have a 50/50 HoM yet

Not the best place to gauge...well... anything

Kada

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2011

Reykjavik, IS

[Hero]

R/Rt

26 Jan 2012 at 07:05 - 33

I don't have my whole HoM yet, I'm about 70% through it. That said, I'm not trying particularly hard or with any sense of urgency - I'm just playing the game and letting the HoM fill itself. Everyone I've spoken to in game chat has roughly the same opinion so I don't know where this whole 'zomg the world will end if my HoM isn't full before GW2 needs moar cash!' urgency thing comes from?

From what ANet has said, they were very specific about these being SKINS ONLY. They weren't going to put new players in a position where they were disadvantaged and would potentially quit immediately after starting if they were surrounded by people kitted out in uber gear they could never get the same stats for themselves.

The ANet blog also mentioned that in GW2 gear will scale in power with level, so you won't have 50/50 HoM people walking around with max gear immediately that makes levelling a cakewalk, they will only be at max for their current level.

Daesu

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2008

26 Jan 2012 at 07:48 - 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kada

Everyone I've spoken to in game chat has roughly the same opinion so I don't know where this whole 'zomg the world will end if my HoM isn't full before GW2 needs moar cash!' urgency thing comes from?

Even if it is not an urgency for some, still if you are moving from GW1 to GW2 soon enough, then you probably have no long term plans for your GW1 gold. If you can upgrade to a better skin from your default starter gear with only a few plats from GW1, why not?

Kada

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2011

Reykjavik, IS

[Hero]

R/Rt

26 Jan 2012 at 08:24 - 35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Even if it is not an urgency for some, still if you are moving from GW1 to GW2 soon enough, then you probably have no long term plans for your GW1 gold. If you can upgrade to a better skin from your default starter gear with only a few plats from GW1, why not?

Alternatively I could wait until GW1 turns into a graveyard and people are desperate enough to lower their prices to something a bit more reasonable before I finish off my HoM with some of the more expensive pieces

fireflyry

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jan 2007

New Zealand

A/D

26 Jan 2012 at 08:36 - 36

The biggest bonus I've heard of from guildies and friends in terms of transition from GW1 to GW2 is the ability to retain character name which I agree with in the hope I can bump into some old friends who left GW1 a long time ago.

Seriously, what relevance will that skin, reward, etc have after 2-3 months.So you can stand around with a "I grinded GW1 to death" hat?Sure it's all hypothesis but unless it's some uber cool aesthetic or gear that cant be surpassed by playing GW2 for a few weeks nobody will care for long.

I may be in the minority but I struggle to see the relevance of hundreds and hundreds of hours of grind only to look "uber" or "special" for a few months.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm thinking the HoM relevance and rewards will be a initial buzz for the vets and grinders but a big disappointment for most after a few weeks.

Each to their own.

cosyfiep

are we there yet?

Join Date: Dec 2005

in a land far far away

guild? I am supposed to have a guild?

Rt/

26 Jan 2012 at 10:13 - 37

when they release the actual date there will be the last big push for those who are going over to gw2 to get the last few whatevers for the HoM....that said, holidays do just about the same thing---prices go up for the holiday (and right before and after) then settle down.....
would be nice if the cost of ectos dropped with the release of gw2--might actually get fow armor then!!

2-3 months after the release most people wont care what reward you got from gw1 as (I am assuming) gw2 rewards should be going strong by then--titles, 'leet gear, etc.

Gabs88

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2011

26 Jan 2012 at 10:57 - 38

Ectos are gonna crash, they're completely overfarmed. People have multiple stacks of them as currency and when they quit game they have little need for it. So they will sell them off to buy simpler stuff such as consets or other armors they need.

Shards will spike, people generally don't keep these around but sell them to trader. Therefore price is around the value ectos should be at.

(PS, shards going up and ectos dramatically dropping is something we've often seen before!)

Zkeys will go up because people who previously farmed their own will now buy for title.

Rubies and Sapphires are allready in short demand and NOT farmable. Hence they will go up. This is actually a very safe way to keep currency as their value is far more stable then ectos.

Hero armors are very easily farmable. Demand will go up but not prices. Resulting in a faster market which is good.

Armbraces will stay stable, or even drop. People keep these for their currency value more then anything at this point.

Destroyer and Opressor weapons will likely spike.

Sweets, Alcohol and Party will stay stable. But many people will also buy directly from shops for their remaining points.

Elite skill tomes I think will stay stable.

----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosyfiep

2-3 months after the release most people wont care what reward you got from gw1 as (I am assuming) gw2 rewards should be going strong by then--titles, 'leet gear, etc.

God Walking Among Mere Mortals

I mean, it sounds pretty darn badass does it not? Also minipets and Ranger pets will be popular.

Iuris

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2006

Crazy ducks from the Forest

W/

26 Jan 2012 at 14:29 - 39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

God Walking Among Mere Mortals

I mean, it sounds pretty darn badass does it not? Also minipets and Ranger pets will be popular.

Since so many of us have it, I don't think it will be all that impressive. Me, I'm looking forward to my little Raccoon, most of all

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

26 Jan 2012 at 15:07 - 40

More intereting thing to contemplate would be fate of "high end items" that do not contribute to HoM/GWAMM at all.

For example BDS, Frog scepters, etc...

Value drop can be expected as people will try to pawn then to fund statues and titles. How fast thou? Will they eventually be just merched, or will people still pay 5k to look cool while grinding various points?