The Most Efficient Chest Run

Rice

Rice

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jun 2005

WTB Any Req Bladed,Echovald,Ornate,Outcast Shield,Gothic Defender,Str Req Diamond Aegis, +HP/+10 VS

[TAM]/[ToA]

N/

I have ran over 19k chests total and my fav spot is Icedome in HM by far. It is a very small area but can have 2-4 chest spwan. From my experience, I say 2 chests 10% chance spawn, 3 chests 60%, and 4 chests 30%. The full run takes about 3-4 min to complete so you are getting just over 1 min per chest.

The drop in Ice dome is very good too. Rares such as unisc Summit Warlord Shield, Stone Summit Shield, Summit Axe and Summit Hammer can fetch decent price if mods are good. You also get alot of armor drops, usually 40-50% of all drops are armor pieces. On top of that, tyrian armor pieces have the highest chance to yield Vigor runes since there are only 6 professions in prophecy, compared to 8 professions in nightfall and factions.

Because there are no towns connected to Icedone, the trick to achieve fast runs is to run dual account. Enter Icedome from Talus Chute and park your second account at the entrance portal. Run with first account and when u get all the chests in the zone, zone back to Talus with second account and go back in again. Enter from Frozen forest is not recommended because you can catch immediate agro from that portal.

Murthag The Great

Murthag The Great

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Sep 2006

Belgium

Guild Nirvana [GN]

Does any1 have a map for the pogmei valley chest run? There was one in the chestrunners thread but it was removed

snodaard

snodaard

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jun 2006

Holland

[Uni]

Mo/

not removed at all

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...postcount=1123

Whirl E Vic

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Aug 2009

D/

Quote:
Originally Posted by HigherMinion View Post
It lies when you assume important values and don't include chance to find major/superior vigors. Also, elite tomes are generally 6k each, with war tomes being 4k only. *sigh*
I used 6k as the average value of the tomes in all calculations.

All the runes do is increase the value of both gold and purple drops. Since virtually all gold runes are more valuable than purple runes, the value of the gold drops increases faster than the value of the purple drops and it just skews it even more in favor of HM even when you account for the increased retains, as I have shown above.

You are welcome to challenge my values with reasonable ones of your own to try to prove your point. Frequency of Elite Tome drops is supported here:
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...&postcount=389
You'll soon find out what the rest of us have figured out. Regardless, run whatever the hell you want. I'm done dealing with a moron/troll on an internet forum.

Bright Star Shine

Bright Star Shine

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Nov 2009

Belgium

Club of a Thousand Pandas [LOD???]

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Enchanted Krystal View Post
Leaving from Boreas Seabed, I go this way. Most times you get 5 chests & I always run in HM. Run takes 6 mins max. I take a very similar route, although my runs never take longer than 4:20 seconds, and that's with absolute shit spawns and me derping, most are 3:30-3:50. Even when running with 2 accounts I don't ever get 6min runs, you must be doing something wrong tbh. Running 2 accounts I usually get around 4:30-5:30 runs depending on spawns. Sometimes even 4:00-ish runs. Shadow of Haste is your friend in Pongmei.

Anyway, I have an update on my test. I finally found some time to play today and did 100 chests in Witman's Folly NM, here are my results. I'm not doing 200 chests btw, I barely even have time to do Nicholas the last few weeks, so I'll stick with 100.

First screen:


Second screen:


Conclusion of my runs:

I had a retain rate of 56%, so I broke a little bit more lockpicks than I should have statistically, but still around the right number.

- Number of lockpicks broken: 51 cost = 61,2k (I buy my lockpicks for 1,2k/ea)
- Total money earned from merching everything: 19,702 gold.

Net gain: -41,498 gold.

Extra info:

-100 chests opened resulted in 33 gold items and 67 purples. Making the gold-purple ratio about exactly 1/3 - 2/3.

-I actually got a lot of 2 chest runs in the end, I don't know why, but it annoyed me. Was there a spawn point I didn't know about? Does it happen often? I had about 10 or so 2 chest runs, all of which were ~2:30 because I had to run all the way to Droks to realize there wasn't a chest there and resign.

-I got quite some survivor and blessed insignias, and some half baked superior runes. No sup vigor though. Even if I did get one, that would still be ~30k loss.

Personal notes:

-I have to admit I am surprised by the actual speed of the run. On a lot of runs I got my 3 chests at around 1:30 or on rare occasions even less. This speaks in favor of the run, but since I'm not here to investigate average speed, but NM vs HM money gain, it's not really relevant.

-I blacked out the name, not because I have something to hide, but because the account isn't actually mine, it's a friend's account, but he quit a long time ago. Nonetheless, the account is his property, I only have permission to use it, so I'm not making the name public.

-I won't have time to play again until this weekend probably, or maybe thursday, so my Pongmei test will have to wait until then.

Reformed

Reformed

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Aug 2009

@ Whirl E Vic - The decimal values you posted I assume are meant to be put back in as an overall percentage of that drop. Why not just list the actual values here? Also, curious that you wound up with exactly 5% Elite Tomes with variance being what it is.

@ Bright - There will always be 3 chests in Witman's. Periodically you will get them in the south-central region of the zone or way off on the eastern edge which isn't ideal for the run.

HigherMinion

HigherMinion

Forge Runner

Join Date: May 2008

East Anglia, UK

Order of [Thay]

N/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bright Star Shine View Post
Anyway, I have an update on my test. I finally found some time to play today and did 100 chests in Witman's Folly NM, here are my results. I'm not doing 200 chests btw, I barely even have time to do Nicholas the last few weeks, so I'll stick with 100.

I had a retain rate of 56%, so I broke a little bit more lockpicks than I should have statistically, but still around the right number.

- Number of lockpicks broken: 51 cost = 61,2k (I buy my lockpicks for 1,2k/ea)
- Total money earned from merching everything: 19,702 gold.

Net gain: -41,498 gold.

Extra info:

-100 chests opened resulted in 33 gold items and 67 purples. Making the gold-purple ratio about exactly 1/3 - 2/3.


-I got quite some survivor and blessed insignias, and some half baked superior runes. No sup vigor though. Even if I did get one, that would still be ~30k loss.

-I have to admit I am surprised by the actual speed of the run. On a lot of runs I got my 3 chests at around 1:30 or on rare occasions even less. This speaks in favor of the run, but since I'm not here to investigate average speed, but NM vs HM money gain, it's not really relevant.
I am currently doing my own testing on economic running in Witman's NM. I've just hit 100 chests so will share my data, but I am intending to spend 100 picks completely.

Picks used for 100 chests: 33. Retention chance: 65%
money from merching: 18,178g
Net loss: 21,422g

Now... My retention rate is slightly higher, but... I don't quite understand why your net loss was double. If your stats aren't skewed then this only indicates how sporadic the loss is.

I achieved the same sort of ratio of grape:gold. 27 golds, 73 grapes. I only got one survivor insignia and no other runes, which also shows the sporadic nature of how much you can make or lose from the run.


Quick note, thanks for noticing the speed of the run. This atleast shows it is very effective for Treasure Hunter and Lucky. Now to prove the economic bit.

Bright Star Shine

Bright Star Shine

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Nov 2009

Belgium

Club of a Thousand Pandas [LOD???]

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by HigherMinion View Post
Now... My retention rate is slightly higher, but... I don't quite understand why your net loss was double. If your stats aren't skewed then this only indicates how sporadic the loss is. Well, I even got a bit more from merching the 100 chests (19,702) than you, but I guess you can average it up to ~20k for 100 chests. From there on you can calculate your net loss/gain depending on your retain chances. For Witman's to be economically break even, you need to have a retention rate of ~83-84%. I'm curious as to how my Pongmei test will turn out

BIG EDIT:

I actually did find some time today to do my 100 Pongmei runs. I documented my findings really thoroughly, here are the results.

I actually ran 101 chests, because that's how the numbers worked out. I'll leave the last drop I had (a purple Amber Wand + broken Lockpick) out of my equation (I also didn't merch it).

Start screen:


End screen:


I had a base retain chance of 26%. On my 100 chests I broke 77 Lockpicks, which is about right.

77 broken picks = 92,4k

I will count the normal tomes as 300g/ea regardless of what it is, and the Elite necro + elite assa is an extra 13k as well.

So, money refunded: 46,918 + 13 + 2,1 = 62,018k

Meaning that my total gain from 100 Pongmei chests is -30,382 gold.

I had a total of 73 gold drops (counting Elite tomes as gold) and 27 purple (counting normal tome as purple) making the total balance about 2/3 - 1/3 in reverse. A little bit more on the gold side.

EXTRA: My chest spawns. I had the following amount of chests, in order:
5-5-5-5-5-4-5-5-4-5-5-5-4-5-5-5-5-4-5-5-5 making the average number of chests (on 101) 4,80. Which is a lot higher than I expected it to be.

I screenied all my drops, except for 1 run, where I had 4 purples and 1 gold armor because I dc'ed there.
Here is the picture (I'm not going to directly post it, because that would make my post super long).

I id'ed a grand total of 4 items myself, being the following:


I didn't id the skeleton shield because it had +41ench on it, which wasn't worth it to me to id.

Extra notes: I had very little elite tomes tbh, usually I get more, and better ones, but even completely without my elite tomes, I would have had about the same loss that I would have had in Witman's Folly. Because I usually run Pongmei with both my alt and my main account, I make a lot less loss/maybe even a little bit of profit because my main account has max TH and max Lucky.

In case someone wants to challenge my conclusion: Pongmei HM is still more profitable than Witman's, maybe just a little less profitable than I thought. Feel free to do a similar test to mine and post your results. Until then, I'm fairly positive this entire thing is cleared up.

Reformed

Reformed

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Aug 2009

How did you get 46,918 as your base "money refunded"? If we exclude your other drops (based on your numbers 2x elite and 7x reg) that leaves you 91 drops. That's a whopping ~516g average value compared to your Witman average which is ~197g.

jague

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2010

[GOTD]

R/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reformed
View Post
How did you get 46,918 as your base "money refunded"? If we exclude your other drops (based on your numbers 2x elite and 7x reg) that leaves you 91 drops. That's a whopping ~516g average value compared to your Witman average which is ~197g. i think he might have had lots of armors (i get them a lot) and made some money by selling the runes.

EDIT: just took a look at the drops and i think i might be right ^^

HigherMinion

HigherMinion

Forge Runner

Join Date: May 2008

East Anglia, UK

Order of [Thay]

N/

So in conclusion, at least for the time being, Witman's is the fastest run for Treasure Hunter and Lucky while Pongmei is better for Wisdom and slightly more economic, with lucky drops.

Bright Star Shine

Bright Star Shine

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Nov 2009

Belgium

Club of a Thousand Pandas [LOD???]

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by HigherMinion View Post
So in conclusion, at least for the time being, Witman's is the fastest run for Treasure Hunter and Lucky while Pongmei is better for Wisdom and slightly more economic, with lucky drops.
Well, as I stated, my drops in Pongmei were way below average, all being pretty bad, and very few elite tomes (usually I get about 2-3/50 chests), so maybe you could end up at an average of ~20-25k loss. Especially with higher retain chances (which, if your intention is to max your treasure will certainly be the case for over half of your chests done).


Quote:
Originally Posted by Reformed View Post
How did you get 46,918 as your base "money refunded"? If we exclude your other drops (based on your numbers 2x elite and 7x reg) that leaves you 91 drops. That's a whopping ~516g average value compared to your Witman average which is ~197g. As I said beforehand, I sell all my crap golds unid for 700g/ea, in my end screenshot you can even see my last trade, and id the potentially good ones (I knew beforehand that the Emblazoned and the Plagueborn were +45wE and +30 respectively). So I ended up id'ing 19 things (as you can see when you compare wisdom) out of the 70 golds (excluding elite tomes), leaving me with the remainder of golds to be sold as unid for 700g/ea. That's 35,7k out of almost 47k.

HigherMinion

HigherMinion

Forge Runner

Join Date: May 2008

East Anglia, UK

Order of [Thay]

N/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bright Star Shine View Post
Well, as I stated, my drops in Pongmei were way below average, all being pretty bad, and very few elite tomes (usually I get about 2-3/50 chests), so maybe you could end up at an average of ~20-25k loss. Especially with higher retain chances (which, if your intention is to max your treasure will certainly be the case for over half of your chests done).




As I said beforehand, I sell all my crap golds unid for 700g/ea, in my end screenshot you can even see my last trade, and id the potentially good ones (I knew beforehand that the Emblazoned and the Plagueborn were +45wE and +30 respectively). So I ended up id'ing 19 things (as you can see when you compare wisdom) out of the 70 golds (excluding elite tomes), leaving me with the remainder of golds to be sold as unid for 700g/ea. That's 35,7k out of almost 47k. Hang on. You said you merched everything in Witman's, but you're selling all your golds for 700g each from Pongmei? That's a balanced test, is it?

HigherMinion

HigherMinion

Forge Runner

Join Date: May 2008

East Anglia, UK

Order of [Thay]

N/

My initial claim was that Witman's was the fastest and most economic run. I suggest, for better results, going through 100 LOCKPICKS, not chests. This will yield much better results. The amount of picks you broke for NM were a wild fluke. I did 100 chests with only 33 picks.

You will find your results are inaccurate and even biased since you fixed it to be "merch everything at witmans/ptrade everything in Kama for Pongmei".

snodaard

snodaard

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jun 2006

Holland

[Uni]

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by HigherMinion
View Post
My initial claim was that Witman's was the fastest and most economic run. I suggest, for better results, going through 100 LOCKPICKS, not chests. This will yield much better results. The amount of picks you broke for NM were a wild fluke. I did 100 chests with only 33 picks.

You will find your results are inaccurate and even biased since you fixed it to be "merch everything at witmans/ptrade everything in Kama for Pongmei". you're wrong again. The amount of broken picks was taken into account. Which is lower for whitmans then for pongmei in 100 chests. If you would do 100 picks you would indeed get more items in whitmans then in pongmei, but they will be, as has been shown by bright now, of a lesser value.

Also I find it quite strange that you want the pongmei chest items to not go through kamadan. you said whitmans is the best in any way. So if there's evidence that pongmei is better on the economics if you go through kamadan with the items, you should do that with the witmans items too, even though these items are all crappy.

One final note. I personally think whitman's is not so nice for maxing treasure hunter. it indeed is very very vast, but it's also mindbogingly boring imho. I tried it some times but I couldn't stand doing it longer then 20 mins cus most of the items are purple and you can't possibly get anything of any value. But that's just my feeling.

Bright Star Shine

Bright Star Shine

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Nov 2009

Belgium

Club of a Thousand Pandas [LOD???]

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by HigherMinion View Post
My initial claim was that Witman's was the fastest and most economic run. I suggest, for better results, going through 100 LOCKPICKS, not chests. This will yield much better results. The amount of picks you broke for NM were a wild fluke. I did 100 chests with only 33 picks.

You will find your results are inaccurate and even biased since you fixed it to be "merch everything at witmans/ptrade everything in Kama for Pongmei".
If you read my post above you, you'll ready that I did the approximate math for selling everything from Witman's in Kama. I added the 400g difference I would have made from the goldies to the total money earned. It still ends up less economical.

If you want to do the same test using 100 Lockpicks instead, feel free to do so. It's bound to have similar results. I don't see how doing 100 chests/test is a bad representation. It's just different. Also, how are the picks I broke in NM a wild fluke? Because, statistically, I broke a little bit too many? Happened in Pongmei as well. I broke 77 instead of 74.

You will find that I did my test as unbiased as I could and that I'm even meeting you half way by doing extra math. I understood your claim to be


Quote: Originally Posted by HigherMinion View Post
I will concede, It clearly won't be the best for unlucky, but you will naturally max Unlucky before Lucky anyway. You're also talking with false information if you think you can seriously profit from regular drops in Pongmei with a 30% retention rate. You'll be able to profit a good deal more from common drops in Witman's, including survivor insignias (common), Major/Sup Vigs and dual-vamp weapons which crop up every now and then.

Hard Mode grants better drops and more golds at the cost of much lower retention. that doesn't magically make it cheaper; quite the opposite. I have a far higher chance to get multiple golds from one lockpick, while you will generally break on the first or second chest. To which I replied that my claim was

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bright Star Shine View Post
Again, it's been stated by many experienced chestrunner multiple times that running in HM is more cost-effective than NM, because of the drops you get. If you need to go for Lucky as well though, running HM won't really help you. But cost effectiveness doesn't apply in NM, and especially not in Witman's Folly. The gold drops you get in HM that are definite trash, you sell unid for 7=5k and the ones that might bring you a good buck (q9 swords, any shield that's been tested for +5xwH, q9-10 rare staffs etc) you id yourself. Doing this + selling elite tomes will get you at least break even, or maybe a little bit less if you have very low retain chance (<30%). And even in HM, the droprates in Witman's are terrible, at least Pongmei gives you the chance of getting a nice drop (and don't say it doesn't happen, I saw someone get a q9 tac +10vDemons +45wE Echovald after opening 10 chests) that can give you some money, even if it's just 20-30k. and I tested both of them exactly as they were said. And even when I tell you that when I would've done Witman's with selling the unids, I still would have ended up with more costs than in Pongmei HM, you still accuse me of being biased. Pot meet kettle much? I joined the discussion in an adult matter, provided you with data to back up both our claims (yours being that Witman's is indeed faster chest/time wise, mine that Pongmei is about equal), I show complete willingness to change my opinion and back down if proven wrong (which I was with the chest/time thingy) and you still dare accuse me of being biased.

Reformed

Reformed

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Aug 2009

Should be common sense that selling off drops at rates 2-3x the merch is going to make more money. Did that actually need to be tested?

superraptors

superraptors

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Dec 2008

W/

@above why wouldn't you be selling the rates at 2-3x each? we are talking about being economical aren't we?


Witman's is definitely a fast run but it is quite inconsistent in my own experience. sometimes its 1:30 or slightly less for 2 chests or it can be up to 2:30-45 for 2-3 chests or sometimes even 1:30 for 1 chest on some occasions.

Pongmei, i never go over 3:50 for 5 chests and that is with terrible spawns, with SUPERB spawns i believe you can get to 2:45-3:00 for 5 chests. i did a couple last week testing my time, i think out of a dozen i got around 5 chests in 5-6 of the runs in 3:15-20 area, highest was 3:45 and the rest inbetween (recorded a run if anyone is interested, super laggy tho)

i would say for pongmei for me:
5 chests - 75%
4 chests - 20%
3 chests 5%

i did a 100 chest test aswell for pongmei yesterday, i merched my golds instead of selling them as unid.
(used my brothers account as he quit a long time ago)



normal tomes: 4 (1.2k)
elite tomes: 4 (28k)
golds: 65 purples: 27 (22k)
retain: 16%(i believe)
broken picks: 83

money loss - money gained

99.6k-51k = 48.4k loss in money

now why did i lose so much? because i didn't sell off my golds as unids (which is really really stupid if you aren't doing it)

or i can let people id for 400-500 and return then merch it for 300 per a piece + the rune money. so we can say an average of 850g per a gold. not even including the items that could be valuable.

45k-55k from selling golds as unids or letting people id and return + 29.2k from tomes +4k from the purples it would narrow my losses down alot and that is with 16% retain, if i had 20% retain i would easily break even or narrow losses to 10-20k margin easily.

i also got far more purples and normal tomes than i usually do.



i have probably done about 1k chests in Witmans all together and it is absolutely boring like snodard said.

Witmans is only good for speed and you might break even(unless you are 30%+). you will have 0% chance of getting absolutely rich.


Pongmei is good for speed and you WILL break even @ 25%+ easily. you will have a chance of getting absolutely rich.

im easily making profit at 40%+ on my acc and i don't even pick purples up ever(except for this test).


bright summed this thread up quite nicely tho. and lol shadow of haste is good i actually use it alot back when i was running gyala hatchery but forgot about it completely lol.

Voodoo Rage

Voodoo Rage

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Mar 2008

Sacramento, CA

Geezers

R/

As an aside in this thread. I noticed that Amber Wands ALWAYS merch into glittering dust. Is it cost effective to salvage them?

Jan Breydel

Jan Breydel

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2006

Musscles From Brussels

Mo/R

I'll just share my own experience in the NM vs HM debate.

I've ran over 10K chests on NM and over 10K on HM. (though most of the NM was before lockpicks).

My conclusions? having a 43% retain in HM and 73% in NM I noticed that /80 lockpicks my profits were about the same on either mode.

So obviously HM is better. why? because i expressed my profits /80 lockpicks, and ofcourse you will run out of lockpicks alot faster in HM. Ergo when you look at the profits per unit of time, hard mode is better.

And this is excluding high end drops. And no matter what people may claim, hard mode is better for high end drops. Better gold rate equals better chance of getting rare skins as a gold drop equals better chance of ending up with a high end item.

And to end. Witmans is FAR from the most economic run, which is exactly why people stopped running there 6 years ago. Yes getting rare drops doesnt happen very often (hence the name rare, right?). But excluding them from the equation entirely is absurd. If you don't think so just come trade me ingame and i'll show you the stuff i got dropped by running in places that make sense.

CE Devilman

CE Devilman

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2006

hell

Do U Trust Anet

N/Mo



outside CTC in HM

near same place 90% of the time

most of the time its a 1 min run or less..