Darkstone Chest Run - 10 keys (6 platinum) Results

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XeNoGeArZ
Frost Gate Guardian
#1
10 keys is a small sample space, so obviously you can't divulge very much, but at least it is sampled.

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10 keys bought for 6 platinum
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1st drop:
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2nd drop:
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3rd drop:
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4th drop:
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5th drop:
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6th drop:
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7th drop:
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8th drop:
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9th drop:
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10th drop:
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Statistics:

PURPLE: 6 (60% of the time)
GOLD:4 (40% of the time)

CLASS:# of drops:total value
W: 2 (20%): 336g
Mo:3 (30%): 656g
N: 1 (10%): 152g
R: 1 (10%): 392g
Me:1 (10%): 174g
E: 2 (20%): 604g

1: purple-warrior-142g
2: purple-monk-110g
3: gold-elementalist-312g
4: purple-necromancer-152g
5: purple-monk-186g
6: gold-ranger-392g
7: purple-warrior-194g
8: purple-mesmer-174g
9: gold-elementalist-292g
10: gold-monk-360g

Total value: 2314g out of 6000g (38.56%)
Net (Loss): -3686g (61.43%)

Note: I ran wildy around Ember Light Camp looking for the chests in no ordered manner. Assume that location of each chest has no bearing on the value of the drop. Mainly, there is a belief that the farther or harder-to-access chests drop better value items, but I cannot conclude anything about that. Also note the total value of all the items if sold to the merchant, which is 2314g. The total value of the keys themselves is 3000g (if sold back to the merchant). These all seemed to consist of so-so mods, although all weapons/items are max damage/energy. This also brings up another point, and that is the introduction of new professions. For those that only play 1 or 2 professions, finding an item of your profession is going to be increasingly harder. Add the two new professions in Factions and your percentage is going to drop even more.
If I had gotten one good drop out of these 10, then the results would look more positive. Still keeping in mind this is only 10 runs, the general look of the drops do not look impressive. I am thinking of attempting to salvage some of the mods, such as the zealous or enchantment mods. I hope someone else decides to do their own run and test, so more samples can be added, but my personal take is that I will never buy another key again. Anyway, if anyone has any questions or sees an error or if this is in the wrong forum even, ask away.

-[XGZ]
ZennZero
ZennZero
Krytan Explorer
#2
If you are going to chests to sell the drops to merchants you will always lose money. Farming chests only makes sense if you are trying to sell drops to players (for much larger sums) or you are trying to unlock upgrades for PvP.

Someone did a rough cost/benefit analysis a while ago and found, even when trying to sell to the player market, it wasn't really worth it (I would give you a link, but searching here has become all but impossible). The likelihood of getting a really valuable drop is just too low.

I, like many others, only bother with chests when we get keys as drops.
o
ophidian409
Krytan Explorer
#3
you need a group of people to make the run profitable, so that you only use the keys when the chest opened by others is gold. And consider there could be drops of mursaat hammer/horn bow/magmas shield, I feel 40% gold is very profitable.
fiery
fiery
Banned
#4
I say try it again, something good to drop if not farmed 24/7. Always test theorys twice , change a variable and make it 20 keys.
Skuld
Skuld
Furnace Stoker
#5
I did the full ring of fire missions yesterday, 8 keys, 8 purples, not please. 4 shiverpeaks, 4 purples.
Savio
Savio
Teenager with attitude
#6
If you want to make any sort of conclusive test, you need more data. 10 keys isn't anywhere near proving anything. Also keep in mind that you make much more by selling to other players, and limiting yourself to the merchant is a bit unrealistic if you're trying to make money. Not that anything you've had so far is worth selling to other people, but you're not about to sell that req. 8 15>50 to the merchant now, are you?
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Hurricane
Ascalonian Squire
#7
uhh...How much for that earth staff? >.>

OnT: I used to chest farm Grenth's footprint till they removed it, I had more golds than purples. Was one of the best places. Even a +5 energy staff.
Alcazanar
Alcazanar
Lion's Arch Merchant
#8
use your brain next time cus a few there looked like
some fine pearls to me...

(btw greenies are worth about 35g to merchant
and you wouldnt want to sell that to them?)
spiffy
spiffy
Ascalonian Squire
#9
hmm i actually found this thread helpful some 1 should do a threat like this on fow chest runs
The_Janitor
The_Janitor
Frost Gate Guardian
#10
Why would you sell all chest drops to a merchant. Kinda the point of chest running is to get some nice drops for sale.
Alana
Alana
Academy Page
#11
Well, while I appreciate the time it took you to do this experiment, I think the fact remains that random is random. I would certainly never advise someone to spend all of their money on keys and bank on great items to recoup their losses. However, some amazing items do drop from chests that will net you the cost of the key and then some. It's a gamble, much like playing the lottery. An analysis of a few lottery tickets (that aren't winners) will show a result that doesn't look so hot. But tell that to the guy who got lucky and won $10 million.

For the record, a darkstone chest once dropped me a gold magmas shield that netted me over 2 million gold, all told. I didn't expect it, and I don't expect to ever find another item like that again, but it sure was nice.
Don Zardeone
Don Zardeone
Wilds Pathfinder
#12
I got a clean gold max 15^50 hand axe from a chest in perdition rock last week (the place outside ember)
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danakin
Ascalonian Squire
#13
Yeah. Don't complain, because the value of some of those mods will easily break 6k. You got a net gain of at least 2k, let alone anything else that dropped. Here's a hint: IDENTIFY EVERYTHING! It drives their prices up and will make up the cost of IDing quickly.

I would be very proud of those results...
Count to Potato
Count to Potato
Jungle Guide
#14
Chest runs will never give you something good most of the time, try and get lucky (1 out of 20 or 50) will be amazing
Pevil Lihatuh
Pevil Lihatuh
Jungle Guide
#15
Surely the zealous mod would have gone for at least 1k to someone? But anyway, most chests aren't so great, I've had very few rares with anything good on them. I'd say if you're gonna go for keys, buy slightly cheaper ones that are still in 'max' areas.
Witchblade
Witchblade
Polar Bear Attendant
#16
damn most of the time, chests are crap
i only open some when i got a keydrop ..

golds are way too rare in chests, and purple are BS

i miss the riverside chests, those were way more fun, since u could drop anything in the game (even removed items )
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Methal Seran
Pre-Searing Cadet
#17
Although some of those mods might look good on paper, its near impossible to sell anything to players thats not perfect, or just under
Unless you are willing to waste countless hours in town

And chests in high end areas should never drop purples!
I get purples in FoW...Thats adding insult to injury
Witchblade
Witchblade
Polar Bear Attendant
#18
purple are almost untradable except some skins with mods like 12>50
only worth few Ks, though ..
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Orbberius
Krytan Explorer
#19
Keys = goldsink. Pretty simple.
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dr1zz one
Wilds Pathfinder
#20
That zealous axe upgrade can be sold for almost what you spent.
Chests are a gold sink and takes quite a bit of an investment to reap rewards.
If we dont have favor, Ill give this run a quick try.