The Factions 'Stock Market'

I'm curious as to who else has really put some thought into this. As we all know, its been hinted at that rubies and sapphires are going to finally have some use in factions (in fact its made sapphires more valuable than ectos right this moment, sapphires selling at 8k, ectos at 7.5k), but has anyone else really thought about all the other things that are probably going to suddenly have some use? Since the original guild wars launch a lot of people have been going 'what in the hell are monsterous ____s good for?', or 'tempered glass vials? who on earth needs those?' Obviously we know rubies and sapphires are going to have some use come factions, but what about the rest of these things that until then have had the denizens of GW scratching their heads?

What we need to see? People investing in the rare crafting material 'stock market'. Forget the gamble of key runs, investing in rare crafting materials is going to be the next big thing.

Why you ask?

Lets look at tempered glass vials. Currently, they sell for about 100g each. A full stack of them (250) is going to run 25k. Ouch, right? Wrong. If they end up having ANY use what-so-ever their price is going to increase, ESPECIALLY at the start of the factions release, when, like new green weapons, everything new is going to be worth bajillions. Clearly, there is money to be made here. Hell, even if the worth of these previously unused rare crafting materials only goes up slightly one could make an incredible profit.

Thoughts?

Regarding the vials... if i remmeber they where for when you had to get the ink for aesthetics (Sp?) armour... so they once had a use... but regarding everything else i think you may be right here... Now im off to buy a hell of alot of monstrous crap =P

Its going to be interesting to see if people who take the risk of buying stuff like monsterous crap, and the vials of ink, are going to end up turning a big profit. I'd imagine its worth a couple thousand gold to take the chance.

I think it will be much more interesting to see if market speculators lose a fortune on certain things. Maybe Sapphires and Rubies finally have a use, but not a significant one, or aren't needed in numbers that justify the current prices and their value drops dramatically. There is so much speculation and so little real information that lots of people could lose all their virtual wealth overnight, regardless of whether their holdings are ecto, rubies, or monsterous eyes.

I debated doing as the OP suggested and invest in a worthless material. However, in the end I decided my gold is safest in my storage. If no use is found still, you just lost half of what you put into that material. 25k in ink becomes 12.5k the trader hands you back. Not so great....

Ssh! I'm trying to corner the market on Vials of Ink!

Edit: Just kidding, of course. I only bought 50 vials because I had a billion plant fibers laying around.

Today's update page says that Amber and Jadeite will be needed to craft new special armor.

I don't think they are going to be worth much. Gaile said last night that they will be used but for something not that valuable.

clay bricks! to build my piggy's storage house.

I wouldn't do it with rubies. I think most materials prices will go up because of the influx of new people buying new armor. However, rubies and stuff like that.. if it has a use, there's probably going to be more things that drop it too.

There's also going to be a lot of these being sold right away and the price is going to be driven down. The supply has built up over a year. Who knows how much is already hoarded.

I bet most rare and normal materials will rise in price moderately though, and I'd put my money there if I was looking to make money on an investment. The new demand is going to be higher than the new supply of these. Something like steel, that has a very high craft price compared to it's current value.. that's likely to rise considerable IMO. You'll have current and new people buying new armor, and it should be available rather quickly (with current pve'ers being able to start at a level 20 area) which should outpace the new supply by a large margin.

If there are ever places that drop ruby and sapphire like rain, I going to run so fast and farm so much until the market crash. That instant, I would have made more money than any of those people who stocked, and they will have to sell their extra for 200g.

That wont happen though. The inherent value of gems is 250g, more than ecto and shards. It would screw up the economy if all the sudden they started dropping like rain.

So there are two types of materials: Ones that are currently consumed and ones that are not.

Ectos and shards are consumed at an incredible rate considering the drop rarity and how many are required for sets of FoW armor. Thus price equilibrium has been reached by a balance between an actual demand and supply. Pretty simple macroecon principle. So long as FoW armor is desired, there will be people farming for the materials and both sides of the market will balance each other. The anchoring effect is also fairly significant in determining pricing for ectos and shards because they have been high value items for such a long time that I doubt that the price will fall much further.

As for rubies and sapphires, let me ask this question, "How many of them are available in the market?" The attritition rate of both have been next to nothing except for some that were accidentally sold to the merchant. The current pricing due to demand is based purely on speculation that there will be a use for them in Factions: Expected value of rubies and sapphires. A stab in the dark if you will.

So these are the factors to consider:
At what rate will these rubies and sapphires be consumed?
How many rubies and sapphires exist in the current market?
At what rate will they be sold to the trader?
At what rate will they be purchased from the trader.

Conclusion:
Due to herding behavior and the obvious innability for individuals to collude with one another and control the rate at which the rare materials will be sold to the trader, the vast surplus of rare materials on the current market, and the predictably limited rate of consumption that will be determined by the crafters in Factions (it simply can't be too high since it would render new players unable to craft anything) I find rare materials to be a highly risky investment to make. But not an investment without a future and I will dabble in it as well.

How much will people strategize when they choose to buy and sell when Factions comes out? Will people impulse buy? Or will people allow the materials market to stabilize?

I sold all of my monstrous eyes (41) for over 2K each at the rare material trader yesterday. After I saw that small numbers of monstrous claws and fangs were used to craft armour I decided to sell my eyes :|.

Notice that rubies are 5.5K at the trader and sapphires are 6K. Is someone off loading them?

Based on what I have seen, with the screenies of 15k armor requiring amber and jadeite, I have concluded that the feasible thing (my conclusion is just my opinion) is that elite or FOW-related armor would require Rubies and Sapphires *ON TOP OF* other materials, more than likely ecto and shards or very similar materials. Being that Amber is Kurzick and Jadeite is Luxon, I see Rubies being Luxon (red) and Sapphires, Kurzick (Blue).

I have a hard time believing that Anet will not utilize ecto and shards in Chapter 2. After the trader reset debaccle, and the downtime they instilled to assure that 10,000 shards were not roaming the storage boxes of many, I believe they will carry over. After all, both, especially ecto, are a staple of trading and game play in general. Theoretically, if Anet simply removed the need for Ecto in Chapter 2, the market on it would completely collapse, with some new material simply taking its place, moving back to what ectos used to be, in the 15-16k each price. While Chapter 2 is meant to be either a stand-alone game or an expansion, I'm pretty sure we can all agree that the largest consumers will be those of us who already own Prophecies (at least initially), as well as people who buy Factions, and enjoy it to the point where they go out and buy Prophecies....there has to be continuity between the two. Having multiple elite, high-end material would destabilize the market between the two games, thus negating the whole purpose of merging.

Just my opinion, and my reason for not dumping ectos and shards, like so many are doing.

I agree with you to a certain point, I think of materials as currency, which widely speaking it is as you purchase the materials and use it was currency to craft specified armour sets.
Because Factions is both an expansion pack and a stand alone product you may expect to see new types of crafting materials, by what you are suggesting - having both ectos and shards play a role in Cantha would require the new materials found in Cantha to have a role in Tyria. (For continuity)
Of course this may not be the case as Tyria would have to go through a big upgrade to utilise this.
I feel that Shards and Ectos should main exclusively within the world of Tyria and the introduction of new materials for Cantha, think of it as this. UK Pounds would not be accepted in the USA as a standard form of currency, and vice versa.
Cantha is a new world to the existing Guild Wars Saga, in a new world there should be some new changes that make it unique from Tyria, some common and some rare materials do carry over to allow of continuity as a merged product but having everything carried over would only remove the uniqueness of that new world, and to me would feel more like an expansion rather than a standalone product.
If I was a new player that didn't own the original campaign, and found that a vast amount of existing rare materials originated from some wierd place in Tyria (FoW/ UW - this means nothing to new players) it would force those to purchase the original campaign to understand the importance and the value of those materials, as well its origins.

Thats just me, but I feel that some things should be carried over and some things shouldn't.

Vials of Ink are used in Factions Monk Armor. I checked the armor crafter in the Capital Cities.

You have a valid point. I just see it more like the Euro. But it could go either way. However, keep in mind that all Canthan rare materials are available at Tyrian traders, and have been for quite some time. I have even seen Jadeite and Amber pop up in Prophecies trader menus, during what I assume would be a trader transaction via FPE. I'm just waiting to see.

Thanks for the stock tip Lone Went and bought myself 250 rubies and saphs for 250 each at merch...1 year later im RICH!!!

Lucky bastard :\