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Originally Posted by tcassa
I just think there are groups out there trying to manipulate the market, get everybody to think it is "normal" to pay 20K for a zealous mod, or whatever.
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The manipulation is being achieved through the fundamental lack of information that is available to the average consumer in-game. Most newer players don't know what things should cost and how scarce or plentiful certain items are. Add to this the fact that many newer players get run through the game and have very little PvE experience and you've got a major problem.
Think about it from the Chinese sweatshop owner's perspective: What's his incentive? To maximize the uptake of in-game gold and it's sale on eBay. How do you do this? You inflate prices. This has two benefits for you. It means that in order to afford things people that buy eBay gold will have to buy more of it. It also means that with your army of farmers the steady stream of items/item mods that you get will translate into more in-game gold. That's gold you can then sell on eBay.
Very much a vicious cycle of inflation.
I'm not sure if an Auction House in-game would really combat this. The trouble is that you would have all kinds of shill bidding done by the farmers to inflate prices. The reality is that even legitimate sellers would get their items bid up just to keep things slanted in the sweatshop farmer's favor.
Would preventing running to Drok's solve the problem? Probably not. Sure newer players wouldn't have access to Drok's armor, but they'd still be able to buy high end weapons from places like Ascalon and Lion's Arch. A level requirement on weapons might solve this, but ANet has been reluctant to do that. (Especially since Attribute points are so central to the game's mechanics.)
Ultimately the real problem is that there isn't any new content. People's energies go into accumlation when they don't have any other thing to do. Factions will fix this and I believe there will be a big correction in the pricing of items. People will be out exploring and finding new items that they simply prefer to the old content's items. Will these new items inflate in value? Yes, that's a given. Hopefully ArenaNet will provide another chapter by the time that happens. If we see new content every six months then we won't have the issue that we're having with our currrent year-old content.
The other thing we can hope for is that ANet has learned from their past mistakes with Prophecies. Each future chapter should be better in terms of content and implementation.
EDIT: Real world example: DeBeers and diamonds. Those clear little rocks are not scarce nor are the very valuable. Yet, with clever marketing (control of information) and control of supply (artificially created scarcity) diamonds are incredibly expensive. The same tactic is possible within Guild Wars on a small scale.