Festival Present reward analysis

I just opened all my collected Festival Presents and recorded the results below. ALL of these presents were collected during the Emperors visits yesterday. (07/04/06)


324 Festival Presents total

19 Platinum
72 Rice Wine
110 Red Bean Cakes
123 Jade Orb Sets (5 Orbs per Set)

Based on these results, here are the approximate percentage chances for each reward type:

5.86% Platinum
22.22% Rice Wine
33.95% Red Bean Cake
37.96% Jade Orb Set

324 samples isn't a huge number, so the actual odds may vary somewhat, but these should be pretty close.

Feel free to post your own results.


UPDATE - Here are the statistics including the posts below.

877 Festival Presents total (figures recorded upto post #11, inclusive)

47 Platinum
233 Rice Wine
285 Red Bean Cakes
320 Jade Orb Sets (5 Orbs per Set)

Based on these results, here are the approximate percentage chances for each reward type:

5.36% Platinum
26.57% Rice Wine
32.50% Red Bean Cake
36.49% Jade Orb Set

Anyways, good job on collecting the statistics. You would figure the platinum would be the rarest out of all the prizes...

Well I certainly did not get anywhere near that many presents. I got 4

3 Red Bean Cakes
1 1000g

359 presents

19k
143 sets of orbs
110 cakes
87 wine

i think i had 23 or 24 presents
i got:

1 plat,
8 sake
50 orbs (5orbs in present - 10 present had orbs then)
the rest was cakes

i got 70

38 wines
30 cakes
10 orbs

I updated the OP with the results everyone else posted. I think at this point, we can see clear and reliable results for opening presents.

20 presents:
14 orbs
0 money
4 red bean cake
2 wine

I had over 150 presents but I only remember this last set because it was just so bad.

out of 55 presents that my necro Thea gotten.

17 were Red Bean Cakes
1k
15 orbs
22 rice wine

Based on these statistics, I would say that festival presents will likely be worth approximately 200 gold each right now.

This is assuming...

Chance of Gold (worth 1,000 gold) x 5.12% = 51
Chance of Rice Wine (sell to merchant for 200 gold) x .2625 = 52
Chance of Red Bean Cake (sell to merchant for 200 gold) x .3303 = 66
Chance of 5 Jade Orbs (sell to players for 20 gold each) x .3662 = 36

Total probability weighted value = 200 gold

Note that once the traders stop giving masks, the value will go down to approximately 165 gold or so a piece (which assumes that the merchants will still buy back the rice wines/red bean cakes).

This also assumes that the new merchants will buy back the rice wines/red bean cakes for half the selling price (I haven't tested this yet - does anyone know if this is true?)...

All the people in the party were upset at my odds, lol
21 Festival Prizes


4 = Rice Wine
5 = Jade Wind Orbs (5)
6 = Red Bean Cakes
6 = 1k

That was the best odds on the plat that I had so far

I haven't actually sold them off yet, but in my inventory screen wines/cakes are listed as Value: 200g

Give me some presents?

I have over 950 Orbs left, after getting two helms. Want those?

mmm.. orbs! I'll take them

I would say the chance of a plat is every 10-12.

ah if I'd only seen this thread earlier.....cuz last night I opened about 375 presents.....anyways I'll go with your numbers. All seemed about even except the plat, which as you show is more of a rarity. The beanies sell at 200 which is pretty nice, and I'll hold on to my 1000 or so remaining orbs until people start panicking =)