I don't understand the traders - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

kongar

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jun 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 01:57 - 1

As the title says - I don't get these guys at all. They are supposed to work ala supply and demand. However, the prices are always way off. For example, just now I recieved a quote for my obsidian shard - 100 gold. That same vendor was selling one for 4.5k.

Supply and demand curves in the real world set an equilibrium price for both sellers and buyers (assuming perfect competition). Yes I do know GW isn't the real world, but I'm confused as to the logic behind these traders. Why wouldn't the sell and buy prices be identical for any given moment?

Can anyone explain or link to an explanation? If not, any Anet lurkers care to comment?

Great game, said it before, will say it forever. Just want to understand it a bit better

Kongar

Hengist

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Jun 2005

England

Albion Victorialis

W/Mo

24 Jul 2005 at 02:00 - 2

Quote:

Originally Posted by kongar

Why wouldn't the sell and buy prices be identical for any given moment?Kongar

Why would there be traders, if they didn't make a profit?... Buy goods cheap, mark up, Sell for profit... Smells like simple Economics to me (traders have to make a living, after all).

drowningfish999

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2005

Awakened Tempest [aT]

24 Jul 2005 at 02:05 - 3

Somewhere I read something that the merchants act on a modified supply and demand system. I'm not sure how how he prices items to sell, but when he buys them, the price will depend on how many he has in stock. If players are selling shards to the merchant faster than the merchant sells them to players, the merchant will pay less for the shards since he doesn't need as much, yet for some reason the selling price for the item from the merchant tends to be not as affected at all.

kongar

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jun 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 02:13 - 4

Hengist - agreed, I would expect some difference between buy and sell for a markup. But a 45X markup is a bit high lol

I was thiking - maybe the traders use a first in first out type system where they always sell the oldest material first, and never below the buying price? I can see how a coded rule like this can cuase a price rift. No demand because the price is so high, yet people still selling (thus driving supply up and price down). If this is the way it works Anet - you should seriously consider changing it. Traders should accept some price risk...

Lasareth

Aquarius

Join Date: Jun 2005

Somewhere between Boardwalk and Park Place

24 Jul 2005 at 02:22 - 5

4,000% profit

I wish I could manage that.

Simplest answer--something in the system is glitched. No way there are more shards than needed by the trader. And their price reflects that.

Moly

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: May 2005

R/Me

24 Jul 2005 at 04:08 - 6

It's "glitched" alright. That's a nice way of putting it. The traders seem to get in a "overstock" mode sometimes where they drop their buying price on something first and it keeps going down until it hits the vendor price. Only then does their selling price drop.

It looks even worse in the dye market like the time a black dye was being offered by the trader at 6p883g but I was offered 1g for mine. Later the selling price was just under 5p but the buy was still 1g. One other time I watched the price of silver sit rock-solid at 800-something while the seemingly trader tried to balence the stock by gradually dropping the offer down to 200-something before I left.

Just a little advice from an ex-retailer. If something isn't moving, simply not buying any more won't sell the stock you have. At some point, I'd say long before the buy price hits 1% of the selling price in this game (let alone 0.014% as in my example) the selling price needs to start dropping.

Kershent

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 04:27 - 7

The buy price fluctuates. The trader has a ton of obsidian shards sitting around, and people keep buying them at the advertised price, so he keeps selling them at that price. However, because people keep selling them to him, he has a surplus, so he's not buying them for that high of a price. As people stop selling to him and continue to buy from him, his buy price will rise very quickly. When it's at a reasonable level, everyone sells to him, and he develops another surplus. If people were to stop buying them at the price he advertises, the price would drop until people bought again, and then the price would rise again.

This happens constantly with steel and fur. Once, I was offered 60 gold for a piece of fur. I kept an eye on the market, and in under 8 hours the buy price was at 200 gold. At which point, I sold, and I'm sure a lot of other people did, so the price probably dropped back to 60 by the next day.

At least, that's how I understand it.

Arturo02

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2005

See that third planet from the sun?

Sacred Forge Knights

R/Me

24 Jul 2005 at 06:08 - 8

the problem in an MMO economy is you don't know the amount of the overall supply. It's not finite. So you will always have speculation and price spikes.

PieXags

Forge Runner

Join Date: May 2005

The Infinite Representation Of Pie And Its Many Brilliances

24 Jul 2005 at 06:10 - 9

Yeah I don't think I understand them either, for a while there I had 'em figured out, but Arturo here just went and sold a black dye to the trader for 8k, whereas a week ago when I sold one to the trader I got a mighty 1g it said so I had to give it away to a lowly ascalon player. What's up with that?

Sagius Truthbarron

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jun 2005

Animal Factory [ZoO]

A/

24 Jul 2005 at 06:14 - 10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lasareth

4,000% profit

I wish I could manage that.

Simplest answer--something in the system is glitched. No way there are more shards than needed by the trader. And their price reflects that.

Actually, you have managed that before.

When you get an item for free and then seel it off to someone. I know that I've gotten 30,000% profit before

Squrl Boy

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jun 2005

Swizzelstick

E/Me

24 Jul 2005 at 06:35 - 11

I went to try and sell some of my silver dye the other day. it was being bought at roughly 1k from the traders. I got a quote of 1 gold....

meanwhile, my red dye, which was being traded for half of that, was quoted at 263 gold. isn't silver both rarer and in higher demand than the red dye?

PhineasToke

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2005

in a house

Phantom Menace

W/Mo

24 Jul 2005 at 06:47 - 12

Last week's patch busted the economy so bad it could be either a mistake or there is a plan to turn the economy into a Diablo-style trading economy. Either way, it just plain sucks for the little guys trying to improve themselves and higher levels trying to get better armor. Eternal pharming for little reward means fewer players. Half of my guild is now on hiatus until it fixes itself.

Kershent

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 07:27 - 13

Quote:

Originally Posted by PieXags

Yeah I don't think I understand them either, for a while there I had 'em figured out, but Arturo here just went and sold a black dye to the trader for 8k, whereas a week ago when I sold one to the trader I got a mighty 1g it said so I had to give it away to a lowly ascalon player. What's up with that?

I just explained that. Everyone was selling black dye as they got it because the price was so high. He got a surplus, and the price he would pay plummeted. People continued to buy black dye as normal, until the trader had a shortfall because nobody was selling to him, so he raised his buy prices. In order to keep up with demand, he had to offer tons of gold for just one dye. Now that everyone is going to be selling their black again, he's going to get a surplus and he'll stop paying much for it.

Anet just made the new economy extremely complicated, that's all. Hell, I don't even know if I'm right. My understanding of economics is basic at best, but the way I see it, it works out.

Arturo02

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2005

See that third planet from the sun?

Sacred Forge Knights

R/Me

24 Jul 2005 at 08:08 - 14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kershent

I just explained that. Everyone was selling black dye as they got it because the price was so high. He got a surplus, and the price he would pay plummeted. People continued to buy black dye as normal, until the trader had a shortfall because nobody was selling to him, so he raised his buy prices. In order to keep up with demand, he had to offer tons of gold for just one dye. Now that everyone is going to be selling their black again, he's going to get a surplus and he'll stop paying much for it.

I'm not a trader at all. I had one black dye I got from a drop and I watched and waited until I got the best price. I was actually amazed the price was as high as it was. A few days ago, it was 3-4 plat.

And the price on selling black dye to the dealer sucked until recently compared to before the changes. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. You didn't miss out on anything by not selling to the npc vendor. I watched the prices.

Old Dood

Middle-Age-Man

Join Date: May 2005

Lansing, Mi

W/Mo

24 Jul 2005 at 11:00 - 15

Quote:

Originally Posted by PieXags

Yeah I don't think I understand them either, for a while there I had 'em figured out, but Arturo here just went and sold a black dye to the trader for 8k, whereas a week ago when I sold one to the trader I got a mighty 1g it said so I had to give it away to a lowly ascalon player. What's up with that?

yEaH!! I sold a yellow dye to the trader for a measly 1g because I need to to clear my inventory. 1K would have been nice

Oh Well.. I did use my 2 remaining blacks dyes on my armor for my monk. Looks pretty darn good. Could have used more however, I used silver for the little touches. With my black and silver cape my "Little Dood" (Errr... my Monks nick name)

Kershent

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 17:38 - 16

Arturo, I think you're kind of missing what I'm posting. I'm trying to explain why the prices are fluctuating so rapidly.

twicky_kid

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jun 2005

Quite Vulgar [FUN]

24 Jul 2005 at 17:46 - 17

i think it does work on how many is in stock

take this for example

buying price selling price

scales 180 99
hides 250 60
cloth 220 40

this of course was not the usual case for these items but that's what they where one night and it left me scatching my head. there are times i've seen hides up to selling for 160 (i unloaded) then cloth went skyrocketing behind it.

its by far the strangest system yet and i wonder if its affected by the other servers as well. like the game works on a global market.

nitetime

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2005

eotn

W/

24 Jul 2005 at 17:49 - 18

but if everyone was selling their black dyes to the trader, he would then have a surplus and the buying price should drop, shouldnt it? Since last week, the buying price has doubled and the selling price has still gone down. Doesnt make much sense to me.

Two weeks ago I sold a black dye to the trader for roughly 3.8k while he was selling for 5k. Now the buying price is at 9k and we're only getting 2.2 ??

Shagsbeard

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: May 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 18:08 - 19

The whole idea of trying to add an economic simulation to this game is going to ruin it. Games have tried, putting their entire emphasis on, to make a viable economic model. It's just not going to work. Fix the prices... meaning set them to a reasonable value and be done with it.

twicky_kid

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jun 2005

Quite Vulgar [FUN]

24 Jul 2005 at 18:16 - 20

kind of like how the rune trader ran dry of sup divine favor runes for about 3 days.....now that was really strange

tanwarv

Academy Page

Join Date: Jul 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 18:27 - 21

Kershent, I believe you are more or less correct when it comes to items that turn over often, like steel and fur. However, with low-turnover items like black dye, obsidian shards, ecto, superior runes, and many of the rarer materials, the patch did send things into a really bad spiral. Ecto is the clearest example. Try selling it to the trader. He has none in stock 99% of the time now, but he still will offer you a fraction of the current selling price (which is hard to see).

Same applies to black dye. Pre-patch, black dye was trading for about 5-6k. It's much higher now, because I believe post-pacth all of the buyback dye prices were reset to 1gp. So in turn only newbies would sell their dye to the trader, which would immediately get bought by another player. The trader would increase his selling price to accomodate, but the buy price would barely move (but would still rise). In high turnover items like steel, fur, and leather, this eventually stabilized to a semi-reasonable supply and demand model. But in the case of low-turnover items, prices never mover quickly enough to compensate. Since many human players base their sell prices to be slightly less than the trader, we have inflation on those items. I imagine this might eventually fix itself, but it has been 11 days, and people are still complaining. There are numerous threads on this same issue, each with other examples documenting this phenomenon.

GW Monkey

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Apr 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 18:56 - 22

GW Monkey: WTB All your shards, 150g each! (trader is offering only 100g)

kongar, if he's offering a price that's stupidly low, do like you would in real life... walk away. Come back in a couple hours, or tomorrow, or next week. It's the frequency and amount other people are selling stuff to him. It's not a fixed amount. Sometimes the Rare Materials Trader wants to buy your steel ingots @ 30g/ea. Are you going to sell them for that? I'll take them. I'll give you 40g/ea (in stacks of 250 only.)

No of course not. So wait. If you wait till he's not so saturated, you'll see this amount start climbing... re: steel it'll climb back over 200g/ea in short order as long as the market isn't staying flooded.

I haven't figured out the "market recovery" pattern but I'm guessing it's calculated per minute. There's plenty of full-time traders out there. Experiment. Play the market.

Shadow Aster

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: May 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 19:01 - 23

I don't pretend to understand how the system works. I DO know that I always try to keep materials on hand (between my husband and I, we have 8 characters) for armor. I have a couple sets of Ascension armor, some from Droknar's, and we both have characters still moving through the game.

It's worth it to me to take stacks of materials down to the trader and see how much he'll offer for them when he quotes and see if anything is worth selling. Yesterday, I had a couple dozen bolts of silk. The rare trader was offering 15 gold each, but the material trader was offering 528 gold for 10. I realize I probably could have gotten more by taking the time to advertise them and try to sell them to people, but that really doesn't interest me. Trading just isn't my thing. Maybe if I had played a single character, and was completely done with everything, I'd think about taking more time to socialize and stand around in the cities/towns/outposts, but I'm not there yet.

I DID take a little time last week to sell fur squares when the selling price was over 600. 200 gold apiece was a pretty good deal for everyone involved I think.

twicky_kid

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jun 2005

Quite Vulgar [FUN]

24 Jul 2005 at 19:03 - 24

i think its per hour.....i've sat at merchant for 30 minutes waiting for prices to change and they never did.

i go out for about and hour or 2 and check it. the prices then change.

PieXags

Forge Runner

Join Date: May 2005

The Infinite Representation Of Pie And Its Many Brilliances

24 Jul 2005 at 19:06 - 25

Here's just something I'm trying to figure out, if say the dye traders work like people say they do, then when they have quite a few, but not a ton of black dyes, they should buy it from people for somewhere in the hundreds of gold, say 700. I've only seen black dye sell for over 4k to the trader, or 1g. Nowhere in the middle. And I know for a fact that everytime it switches someone didn't just go and sell 20 black dyes to the trader, it doesn't make sense, and it doesn't change accordingly. The price it buys from people is either high and reasonable, or 1g. Never anywhere in the middle, and it should be if it really does work on a tweaked supply/demand basis.

Kershent

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 19:17 - 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanwarv

Kershent, I believe you are more or less correct when it comes to items that turn over often, like steel and fur. However, with low-turnover items like black dye, obsidian shards, ecto, superior runes, and many of the rarer materials, the patch did send things into a really bad spiral. Ecto is the clearest example. Try selling it to the trader. He has none in stock 99% of the time now, but he still will offer you a fraction of the current selling price (which is hard to see).

Same applies to black dye. Pre-patch, black dye was trading for about 5-6k. It's much higher now, because I believe post-pacth all of the buyback dye prices were reset to 1gp. So in turn only newbies would sell their dye to the trader, which would immediately get bought by another player. The trader would increase his selling price to accomodate, but the buy price would barely move (but would still rise). In high turnover items like steel, fur, and leather, this eventually stabilized to a semi-reasonable supply and demand model. But in the case of low-turnover items, prices never mover quickly enough to compensate. Since many human players base their sell prices to be slightly less than the trader, we have inflation on those items. I imagine this might eventually fix itself, but it has been 11 days, and people are still complaining. There are numerous threads on this same issue, each with other examples documenting this phenomenon.

I think the problem with ectos and shards is a botter. Didn't someone come through here once saying that someone admitted to having a bot that bought every ecto and shard that came on the market? If that's the case, buy prices are so low because everyone is selling to the trader, assuming their buy prices won't rise. I can't verify that there's still a botter standing there, so that theory could be bunk.

As for low turnover items, keep in mind that they are in very high demand because of their rarity. People are buying black dye constantly, even though it's over 11k. Because of this, the trader doesn't have to lower his prices to get more people to buy. He's getting dye at about the same rate people are buying it, so the prices are staying the same. If all of a sudden nobody bought black dye, and nobody sold it to the trader, his buy price would shoot up, and his sell price would plummet.

So boycott the dye trader! That'll fix it.

Tactical-Dillusions

Desert Nomad

Join Date: May 2005

Grimsby, UK

R/

24 Jul 2005 at 19:27 - 27

Went to sell a few scraps of rare material to the trader today.
I got a fair price on the furs but when i went to sell the bit of linen...15 gold!!

I checked the buying price and it was 1027 gold a piece!! Jesus.

What's with that? I put out a trade advert for this one piece and nobody wanted it at 800 or even 600 gold.

I put it in the merchant in the end. I'm not wasting more than 1 minute on a scrap of material.

PieXags

Forge Runner

Join Date: May 2005

The Infinite Representation Of Pie And Its Many Brilliances

24 Jul 2005 at 19:33 - 28

They just don't make sense, how come deldrimor steel, a much more expensive and high-end material, is worth much less than say...iron ingots? (Not to mention deldrimor steel is MADE from iron ingots...among other things.) Doesn't make sense to me.

nitetime

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2005

eotn

W/

24 Jul 2005 at 19:48 - 29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arturo02

don't ever use real life money to buy pixels. Not worth it.

Especially on a night like tonight where black dye sold to the NPC vendor put 8+ plat in your inventory.

Where does this guy get this crap? This was posted in the Ebay to buy or not thread....

Aka

Academy Page

Join Date: May 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 20:19 - 30

The problem as I see it is that traders only relate to their own stock, and not to each other. In a "real world" system there would be more than one retailer, and if one trader is selling something for 4k and buying for 100g, the next trader would buy for more or sell for less. There would be competition between the traders, and that would even out the market.

Of course, that would also mean a lot of zooming around from trader to trader for the player, which would only be fun for a few people. (not that dope wars isn't a great game...)

It's a funky system, and I'm glad there isn't that much to buy or it would be intolerable.

Slimcea

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jul 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 20:53 - 31

Its broken for sure. Theres probably a bug or two somewhere in the trader code, especially with regards to stock.. I mean, I tried selling 10 steel ingots to the material trader, and got the shock of my life when I was offered a measly 300g. Going over to the Rare Material trader, he was buying them for 125g each. If that's not a sign of something being screwed up, I don't know what is.

Kershent

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

24 Jul 2005 at 22:47 - 32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tactical-Dillusions

Went to sell a few scraps of rare material to the trader today.
I got a fair price on the furs but when i went to sell the bit of linen...15 gold!!

I checked the buying price and it was 1027 gold a piece!! Jesus.

What's with that? I put out a trade advert for this one piece and nobody wanted it at 800 or even 600 gold.

I put it in the merchant in the end. I'm not wasting more than 1 minute on a scrap of material.

I don't mean to insult you here, but lazy people like you are keeping the prices so low. If you had just held onto that linen for another 12 hours, the price would've been awesome. But since the trader is still getting Linen for such a dirt-cheap price, he'll keep buying it for that price.

The system isn't broken, it's just SMART.

Racthoh

Did I hear 7 heroes?

Join Date: May 2005

Scars Meadows [SMS], Guild Leader (Not Recruiting)

24 Jul 2005 at 23:06 - 33

To explain the whole broke thing, I recall something from a different game on the SNES. Someone got their character so powerful so that they were doing more damage than the game could handle, so their damage was instead very low. Although what happened was the number exceeded the 16 bit value of 65535 (might be off a bit) so when it went higher than that it just went to 1.

Prehaps what is happening in Guild Wars is the stock of the trader is so high due to a large stock that the number in memory is "overflowing" and simply can't handle it. So it just gives you the default value of the item.

But I doubt that would be a problem in this game since it is far ahead of the time of SNES and its limitations. But if the programmers made a simple mistake like that it would be rather funny.

Kershent

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

25 Jul 2005 at 00:22 - 34

Doubtful, Racthoh. Superior vigors were going for well over 100 plat without problems, and black dye is going for a fraction of that.

tanwarv

Academy Page

Join Date: Jul 2005

25 Jul 2005 at 00:24 - 35

For those that don't yet believe that this was a side-effect of the latest patch, ask yourself, "What is fundamentally different between now and July 12 (pre-patch)?"

To believe that this is simply a side effect of real supply/demand, is to conclude that suddenly the demand for black dye, shards, ecto, linen, parchment, and steel have all doubled. At the same time, you must also conclude that people are suddenly more apt to sell all of the above items at much lower prices (out of newly acquired laziness).

I don't believe that whatsover. I do know that the sell prices did reset to minimum values the day the patch came out, and that inflation over the past 11 days is much higher than the inflation rate of the past 30 days.

Pre-patch, the only examples I could think of where buy prices and sell prices were significantly different from each other were common materials (like planks of wood) where the trader selling price hit a programmed floor of 150gp/10. I cannot think of any other examples of extreme buy/sell price variance. Someone changed the mechanics of the trader, and this resulted in the current situation. Without looking at the code, I couldn't tell you if this was based on some internal assumptions of anticipated turnover rate, or whatever...

IMNHO, they really do need to fix this problem if they want to avoid having a "garbage economy" found in so many other MMORPGs.

Kershent

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Apr 2005

25 Jul 2005 at 02:21 - 36

Tan, I agree. I think they changed a lot that last patch, mostly making the supply/demand economic model much more complex, but with very poor results. When nobody understands anything about the system, the system fails. How should everyone know not to sell fur, steel, or anything when the price is low? For all they know, it could be that low for a week. That's why people appear lazy.

ANet either needs to fix this, or explain it.

Arturo02

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2005

See that third planet from the sun?

Sacred Forge Knights

R/Me

25 Jul 2005 at 03:05 - 37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kershent

Arturo, I think you're kind of missing what I'm posting. I'm trying to explain why the prices are fluctuating so rapidly.

yes looking back now I see your point. well said and I'm an idiot sometimes hehe.

UberRusty

Banned

Join Date: Jun 2005

amsterdam, where male prostitution is legal

[GGG] Gay Guild Gals

W/R

25 Jul 2005 at 03:18 - 38

They changed something with the trader prices during the "new trading interface request quote" update. Everything now sells to the trader for a lot less. Bummer.

Arturo02

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2005

See that third planet from the sun?

Sacred Forge Knights

R/Me

25 Jul 2005 at 03:24 - 39

Quote:

Originally Posted by nitetime

Where does this guy get this crap? This was posted in the Ebay to buy or not thread....

Not my fault you missed it. Maybe next time if it happens I'll post an alert on the boards. Then you'll not believe me again while others reply thanks and now they are 8 plat richer.

Nobody likes haters.

noblepaladin

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2005

25 Jul 2005 at 16:51 - 40

The economy is definitely NOT running on the standard supply and demand. Considering stuff like Ecto is high in demand and the traders are always out of stock, they should be willing to buy for more than 100g. Nobody sells to them because the price is too low even though they are all willing to buy for 10k, simple economics means they should raise the price that they buy from players until people starts selling to them so they can get some stock and make profit. The market seems to work fine for certain materials though, so for some reason I suspect that this may be intentional to prevent people from getting too rich. Personally, I hate a market that is so obviously bugged though, they could have just lowered it to 50% of the traders selling price and I think that would haved one the same thing (along with special cases for price floors and when he is overstocked or understocked).