Economics & Ectos!

Greetings,

One of the things that I like about Guild Wars is the way there is a kinda virtual stock market, with prices on materials rising and falling.

I been quietly beaver’ing away on my ecto collection for a month or two, and no I don't have a solo farmer monk, in fact I have never found one single ecto ever!, so I have been buying them for approx 12-13K each

After the last big update (AoE Flee!) I was wondering what would happen to the price of ectos?. I have not studied any form of economics before, but I have some basic common sense and understand a little about supply and demand etc. .

My *personal* thoughts at the time of the last update was that ecto (and shard) prices would fall, reason being that solo (griffon) farming was now trashed and therefore a steady stream of gold/plat were no longer available, and therefore people wouldn't have as much money to throw around. .

I spoke to one of my mates in real life (who also plays a little GW and WoW) who works in the money markets (FX), I explained to him the situation and it was his guess that the prices on Ecto would *rise* because now there were harder to *manufacture* (farm) since the update. .

Now I have seen Ectos sink in price to about 10-11k ish and I am not sure why?

Some people have mentioned something about a *price reset* where the price of ectos were lowered by A-Net to 250gp of something? Is this true or just some web-legend?

Has the demand for Fissure armour slowed down so people no longer need as many ecto/shards?

Did the drop rate for ectos suddenly increase (tweak by A-net?)

Thanks in advance for any useful replies/comments, just trying to understand the *variables* involved

I have no idea but now the price is falling below 10 per, its hard to find a buyer for 10k+ per ecto right now, but I wonder if the introduction of new classes will significantly effect the price, i mean its 2 whole new sets of fissure armour and how many people will play as the new characters...

I think that the closer we get to the release of chapter 2, the more you'll see the value of ectos drop. Right now, I think people are selling off their ectos and putting the gold into other items, hoping that they will increase in value with chapter 2.

When I buy ectos these days, it's only temporarily for a trade of more than 100k.

perfect time to be buying FoW armor i'd say

and yes... there was a market reset by ANeT awhile back... i'm talking 3-4 months ago... everything started off as 100g at the traders... including Sup Vigs/Absorb... ecto/shards/rubies/sapphires... many became millionares in minutes :P

heh...ask your buddy about liquidity.

has the price declined gradually over a month, or so, or was there a big dip in the last week?
because there's a 17 page thread you might want to skim.

I think with the last patch (The AoE patch) A-Net made a few unlisted tweaks to the drop rates in an effort to reduce the prices of certain uber-expensive items. People have been reporting finding more and more black dyes and ectos since the patch was released. More ectos to go around means the price falls. Demand remains constant while Supply increases. I attributed the price drop to that fact of economics.

I've also noticed the price of Sup Vigors droping too. Before the patch, they were hovering around 70K, now they're down to 45/47K. I think they did the same thing with the Sup Absorbs, but the Sup Absorbs are so high that everyone is keeping them away from the traders so they can make a few extra K selling to other players.

Um, didn't you give the solution yourself? AoE nerfed Griffon farming...

So ya really think those ppl just QUIT farming? Look at how many 55 Monk + Necro SS teams are in ToA now. These people are just farming the UW more, hence there's more ecto's.

My guess anyways.

My initial theory after Nov 10th nerf was that ectos would rise.
Even today, it's alot more difficult to farm for ectos as it was before nov 10th.
Hence, ectos should go up.

But one thing we don't realize are people playing this game professionally.
Who knows how many ectos they have harvested before nov 10th.
Now that Chapter 2 is coming out and hints of ectos being phased out, they want to get rid of their stock.
Using this logic, I would assume ecto prices would continue to drop.

Has anyone noticed the people selling ectos in toa/la/ascalon/droknars?
If you don't know where prices of ectos/shards are heading, look to them.
Like it or not, they control the market.

Solo Griffon farming trashed???
Pop into Augury Rock international dis1 sometime and look at the sweat shop monks streaming out the door.
It is really a funny site to see and maybe someone can tell them about the farming being trashed.

Hi, oh I see, well that was some time ago, I heard that this was more recent, so I wonder if some people just stood there and bought like 1000 ectos? and are now dumping them as prices go down.

17 Page thread? which one is that then? and what do I need to know about *liquidity*?

Ok, so you believe that there was some unlisted tweak by A-Net to let more ectos drop? I do know one farmer monk that says he farmed 80 ectos in 5 days???

Your putting words in my mouth? No I don't think they quit? but yes I did suspect that the fact it is harder to earn money farming would mean less money being manufactured, therefore prices would drop (like a recession). But yes a useful point you raised, which is that people who were farming griffons (for gold and items) have now switched to UW ecto runs. .

Hi thats an angle I didn't consider, the next version of GW may have some new uber armor that doesn't use ectos

Hi, your reply is a little off-key and sarcastic and there is really no need for that in this thread, this is a discussion about game economics and the variables involved. I do think that the griffon run was *trashed* and of course I have seen the steady stream of Mo/W flooding out the Augury door, no where near the amount there was 1-2 months ago, thanks sixdartbart for being the only person to reply who made no effort to *contribute* to a normal discussion.

dunno about other classes but I'am still doing fine when farming griffons with my W/Mo, so I personally dont believe it has trashed...

I've been basically relying on the fact we'll have better armor choices (at the very least in regards to style) w/o the insane needs fissure demands. Plus I haven't caught any of the market waves (there when the price re-set) or made use of any of the cheese factors (ie 40% enc axe salesmen, now gone) and I don't have the hours (nor desire) to endlessly farm

So I'd say just be happy to know they need new (level 20) armor choices for all classes. I'd be shocked beyond belief if that didn't happen.

Real reason: 2 man smite groups.

Ok,
I dont wanna ruin this thread because of the word *trashed*, but I was a griffon runner for ages, no problem is killing all the griffs in 6 mins (10 runs per hour) so that was approx 15k/hour + weapons and upgrades. Not sure if there is an uber W/Mo build I have overlooked, but are u saying you can still do 10 griff runs an hour?

Hmm,

thanks for adding that *variable* what exactly is the deal with 2-man smite runs? (why better than solo?)

The monsters run from one smiter's AoE into another's AoE. It's a ping-pong match after that.

Hmmm,

well I guess I must make a decision about what to do with my stocks. .



120 Shard - @3.5K - Invested approx 420K
120 Ecto - @13K - Invested approx 1560K

Total Investment= 1980K

120 Shard - @2.8K - Current worth approx 336K
120 Ecto- @7.5K - Invested approx 900K

Current Investment Worth= 1236K

Total Loss= 744K

That's alot of money to lose! so now I have to decide to:

a) Sit it out, and speculate that *somehow* prices will increase again

b) Cash in quick and cut my loses now! before we see ecto selling @ trader for 5k

What would you guys do?

Get fissure armour.

Yeah good suggestion,

only the sad fact that I dislike the way Fissure armour looks on Warriors (thats the only character I have). . .



My post was aimed more at the economics aspect of ectos and shards, although I got a feeling I'm in one of those situations where I can only lose

1) If I decide to keep my stock, the value will plummet and I could lose 1-2Mill

2) If I sell my stock, the value will suddenly rise

That's not the real reason.
We are all aware a 55 monk can go down with a ss necro.

But, before the first nerf:
You can go down by yourself with protective bond and get ectos easily.

Then, before the second nerf:
You can go down by yourself with protective spirit/Balt aura and get ectos easily.

Now, because of the nightmares & AoE nerf:
You need an ss necro to come along.
Twice the man power, therefore half the reward.
How does that increase price of ectos?

It doesn't, it the price, because it means more ecto's!

I had never been to the UW before, but once I heard of this 55 Monk + SS Necro teams I got the gear for my monk, and peeled him away from Sorrows Furnace for one night only. My first trip down I died, 2nd trip down I killed 4 Aataxes before dying. 2 of them dropped ecto's!!! I went 2 more times and got my ass handed to me again, and said forget it. Mind you this was all solo.
I didn't have the patience, and SF seemed so much easier, so my nooblet self went back there where it belongs.

But think of how many ppl built their 55 Monk/SS Necro and are still sticking it to the UW?

do what i did...sell half and keep the rest, play it safe

What I really meant is a lot more people know about it now because they ask the people spamming "55 hp looking for SS/SV" (or the other way around) and the people who have those prof. ask what they are and find out for themselves what it is and make themselves able to do 2 man smite. It was sort of a quiet thing when you were soloing UW and not many people knew about it. Also people who didn't have a monk and has a necro can now join in.

I'd hold. But then again, I'm like 85%(guess) of the rest of the GW population that is happy to see 100K sitting in the storage.

the amount of time it takes to do the run is considerably faster than doing it solo. hence, the reward isn't really cut in half. you can do 2-3 runs in the same amount of time you needed for 1 run before.

with regards to ecto price, the initial spike in price after the update was due to people speculating that ecto would be harder to get and buying them out from the traders. they were hoping to cash in while the price was still relatively low. however, with the 2 man runs, ecto is still as easy to get. thus the price is starting to stabilize again. for those who don't remember, stable ecto price is around 8-10k range.

I believe that so many duos are farming UW that the market is flooding with ecto. The SS duos cut through smite runs as fast as (if not faster) than the solo monks before the nerfs.

People who wanted to jump into the invinci-monk trend but couldn't afford the 5 superior runes now have an easy job to fill. SS/SV Necros are so easy to make because you don't need expensive runes to be effective.

Partnering with an SS/SV necro makes life smoother for invinci-monks. With all of the smiting/aoe nerfs, solo monks have been looking for a fast and consistent farming routine to bring in steady income. Griffin runs are still easy, but not as fast as they used to be. UW solo is quite difficult for the average player nowadays.

I have no idea what the expansion will do to the economy, but I believe Anet will swing it's nerf bat at UW duo farming somehow before the expansion. This would cause the ecto price to rise again. So, IMO, hang onto the ecto that you've been stocking up on. It might not go up to 19k again soon, but I'm sure it will not stay as low as it is now.

I can't see this as being twice or 3 times as fast.
Whatever duo you have now going into uw, you can do it before nerf + baltizaar's aura.

Wow you are really quite a snotty type huh?
First off my post was meant to point out the flaw in your very first assumption about the griffon farming being "TRASHED" If that was actually correct these people would not be there making a living on them
Therefore the rest of your assumptions won't hold water either if the point you based everything else on was that far off base.
If you were stocking up on ectos at 12 to 13 k I would guess that you probably bought tech stocks in 1999?
They quite often go up to 17 or 18 k and just as often drop to 10 or 11k *rare material trader price* and they can often be purchased for 2 to 3k below that from sellers in game.
You said you have someone that works in the market? ask him to give you the basics on buy low sell high
My suggestion to you would be to sell them all now while prices are down and then buy them back when they go back up
I wonder if I'm being sarcastic this time???

The market is just flooded right now. More people farming and seemingly more drops is obviously dropping the prices. That will scare away the farmers from UW for a while, giving Ectos a chance to rebound a bit.

However with the Holiday Update coming, I would suspect that people would be occupied for the next week or two. So prices should bottom out and make a nice comeback at the beginning of the year.

However don't think you'll see prices ever hit 15k again, unless for some reason they are still worth anything after the release.

Ectos peaked after the farming nerf (aka aoe-nerf) patch from people thinking that ectos would be harder to get since solo monking was nerfed.

I got sucked into the panic spree and bought ~100 ectos at this time for 13-13.5k each.

I bought roughly 70 ectos at 10k each when I was relatively sure this was the lowest they would go as I've never seen them lower ever since I've been playing. However that's been proven wrong because apparently people are selling for 9k each.

I could try to dump now, but it'd just be losing money so I'd rather wait it out. I haven't seen any reason to believe in all the rubies and sapphires hype. It's all speculation at this point.

Oh noes, the Guild Wars stock market crashed, today ecto traders in Lions Arch leapt from buildings :-o
Wasn't it great when they re-set the economy and major runes of vigor and absorb cost 200 gold so I bought up big :-)

GW has a history of stock market crashes.

Its many factors at work here.

The supply of Ecto has not dropped. You need 2 to run UW but you make the run that much faster. No matter how many times you run UW the items are predetermined after it loads. 2 man runs allows you do runs faster so you can make many more runs in the same time you could 1 solo run.

We have more contries coming to GW. More new players with nothing. Some how I think Anet has a hand in this somewhere to make the prices be affordable for new players. Everyone's market is the same now and 1 server can make the prices change on other servers.

Now that griffon runs are much slower less gold is being pumped into the market. Got to have gold to pay for those Ecto to keep the prices high. Less gold coming in less people have to pay for the Ecto.

A lot of factors here of why the prices are dropping. I don't think its due to 1 reason over another it a collective effort. As for predictions of prices.

I see rubies and jewels going up as we get closer to chapter 2 release. Same goes for the monstrous items going up too. They will go up b/c of pure speculation and people might miss the window of low prices.

As we have seen when we find something new players pay big bucks to get it fast. SoA axe showed us that and now the IDS. New items will always spike in price due to competition and how much gold players have.

Don't know about dyes. Dyes hold the a close range of price. Some people have noticed a slight increase of drops for dyes. Dyes are a little different IMO with people mixing. Mixing is very expensive and removes the dye from the game. Really unsure of how Dyes will work out.