Dwindling Green Drop Ratios in the Elites

I have completed The Deep in the ballpark of 50-60 times. My green drop ratios were in the beginning 1 in 2. Then it dropped to 1 in 4. Creeped down to 1 in 9. And finally plummeted down to 0 for 20. I have spoken to others whom I party often with (no life, GW hardcores like me) whom experienced the same situation.

I've stopped going to The Deep for almost two weeks now and started aggressively in Urgoz. My drop ratio there is also astonishingly bad so far; 0 for 5.

One friend of mine, said that he went 0 for 20 in Urgoz after staying away from The Deep.

So I have several questions for people with the same experiences.

Is there a limit to amount of greens that you can receive there?

If so, does anyone know how long I have to stay away from The Deep to start getting drops again? I have a friend who waited two weeks and still have not picked up a reasonable drop count if any at all.

Are the drops connected between Urgoz and The Deep if there is a quota or farming penalty?

I am concerned because I am decent at the elite missions and have tons of patience. It is my main form of game income and main form of fun in Cantha. But I don't want to waste my time there if I know the deck is heavily stacked against me.

Any EDUCATED help would be much appreciated. Please keep comments and conjecture to yourselves. Thanks in advance.


Sean

Ok, noobish contribution that everyone can ignore, but does this not relate to the anti-farming code in Guild Wars that throttles down the drop rates of frequently visited areas. If it is such a thing, I have not heard reports of it returning, as it's to encourage people to not sit in one spot...

I experianced this same phenomina when farming at the ToPK, and gave up permanently.

Either that, or recent updates to the game have hightened the rarity of drops in this elite mission... speculation... (it happens).

Green drops thorughout the green are very low. Its due to the intial flux of people over farming them.

Same with everything in like game, like the Icy Dragon Sword, and has nothing to do with the anti-farming code.

Overfarming of any rares reduces the number of drops.

Probability is completely random.

3 greens drop from a boss. Hence you have a 3/12 (1/4) chance. No more, no less.

The reasonable mind will tell you that the odds are 1 in 4 respectively. The elite bosses always drop 3 greens. But when the ratio drops down to 1 in 20, there are concerns. I am asking for other people experiences there who have been there frequently--like 2 or 3 kills per day. If there are others with the same experiences then this thread will help others understand more about the penalties involved.

I've spoke to others as well who have gone 0 for 20 after long exposures there which leads me to believe that I have some cause for concern.

I've asked this elsewhere but couldn't find the post again:

Is there any evidence that this is true, or is it simply an assumption?

It's all luck, so get over it. I did Urgoz 5 times and got 0 greens for it, and I havn't bothered going back. (Not b/c of the lack of greens but b/c I havn't gotten around to it.)

You'll need a serious statistical sample to support this, and size 100 is far from that.

Currently assumption, with some minor testing.

SF is the best example. When it was first added greens would drop all the time, even in hench teams.

The green drops in SF have steadly been dropping, thus the reason for small and smaller farming groups.

Seriously, find yourself another farming-ground for a while. The game is supposed to be fun, not a chore.

well this is what i do. i mostly go to the deep with my monk, first i do some deep runs. and no UW runs. i do this for about 1 or 2 days, then i play some missions for 1 day. after that i do UW runs. then after that 1 day of missions. and then i do Urgoz mission.

the thing i noticed is that i get more ecto drops. for the elite missions i only once got a green (Kanaxai edge). but the chest drops are nice. once i had a Zodiac Sword +15^50 +30 req 9, zodiac bow +15^50 req 10, and a vertebreaker +15^50 req 10.

Maybee i was just lucky, but maybee it works better if you do different things with your char, instead of farming a lot with him.

Great, I finally get to SF and I find that the green drops have dropped off

bah!

Yep it's a theory that drop rates are reseted/getting better if one goes to do some missions & quests in between of farming.

Don't think there is any truth in that at all, most likely that was started by the same people who think that having the favour effects drops. lol

I've done 5, 10, 20 runs in a row at Elona Reach averaging about 500gold per run. Just when I think drops are starting to fall off, I'll get a run with a gold, or a few purples, or in one case, six Elonian keys.

I realize it's by far not the best farming spot, but it's the easiest place for me to see how many times I can go before I see anything that looks like anti-farming measures.

Firebat, thank you for the answer.

Sshh, don't say that. Anet might find out and nerf it

I have also noticed that new characters get the drops more than a year old character.

Darnit, you're right.

Sorry, sorry. I meant 5 gold per run. And modless Fiery Dragon Swords.

I believe the reason is that there are a finite number of Green items, as well as other rares. When areas are over-farmed the "good" drops become more rare. Green and rare items will go back into the "pool" if they're sold to merchants or someone deletes them from their inventory, among other things (i.e. deleted accounts and so on).

The ridiculousness of it is that they encourage soloing by the use of this asinine entire world anti-farming code which just makes more people farm an area by default by breaking a single team of 8 into 8 1's because that is the only way to get drops.