Jumping the Shark...?

As a wikipedia lover, I was surfing the endless link chains of Wikipedia, and eventually got to this page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumped_the_shark

I read the description, and pretty much immediately thought GW.

For the rest of you out there, do you think GW has "jumped the shark"? It's interesting to think about why you originally bought the game. I bought it cause it had awesome graphics (still unmatched imo) and a really fast, non-grind PvE gameplay. Nowadays, I abhor the wall-hugging, afk drinking, HA-grinding drag of the game, so personally, I"d think it jumped the shark quite a bit.

I'm not sure if that's necessarily a bad thing, but I can pretty confidently say, it's not the game I bought 12 months ago. I no longer get as much excitement and wonder from exploring pre-searing Ascalon or the Crystal Desert anymore, and it has turned into just another repetative title-seeking PvE/PvP grind.

What do you guys think? =P

Jumped the shark? Not at all!

The vision of the game is still well-alive. Of course it's not going to be the same game as 12 months ago, it has evolved, but that doesn't constitute labelling Guild Wars as "jumped the shark".

I don't think that GW has reached that point yet, I think that GW is entering a circling the drain phase, but it still has a chance to pull out.

With the release of Nightfall, GW is about to create problem, even with an increase in player base, will the players be able to support 3 or more campains? If not, will we tolerate a discontinuation, or overwrite, of a previous chapter? If the players won't tolerate the discontinuation, or overwrite, will they play anyway even with the thinned down player base.

The current stand alone model won't work forever.

Jumping the Shark generally refers to introducing "gimmicks" to keep interest alive in your product.

I believe that Guild Wars introduced diversity with adding the Ritualist and Assassin classes, and hopefully the Dervish and Paragon classes continue that diversity.

I'm worried that, at some point, the new classes and/or skills may become more gimmicky in nature (i.e. flashy, but doesn't add any real content), at which point Guild Wars will definitely be powered up on Water Skis.

Well said, Markaedw.

The potential GW player base, though it may not have peaked yet, is finite. Unlike something like Tetris, Guild Wars will never be able to expand the way it would need to in order to simultaneously support, say, 6 or 7 "standalone" games (and perhaps I am being generous here).

As it is now, it can be very difficult to find active players in many of Prophesy's smaller cities and outposts.

A potential solution? Perhaps if Anet would continue to mix a bit more new content around the maps of the older games, players would return to their old haunts to do quests or collect particular drops...

So, basically you're saying that you've played it for a year, and am becoming bored with it?

Imagine that.

"Jumping the shark" seems to refer more to a specific event rather than an ongoing process. If applied to Guild Wars, it would be the point where a vast number of players would lose faith in the game, quit and/or stop buying new chapters, but it would also imply that ANet tried to do something with Guild Wars that the player base did not support.

We've only had one "stirring" of jump-the-shark-like situations in Guild Wars with the release of Factions, and despite the mixed reception it's received the player base is still there, even if diminished by the "separate worlds" problem. Despite grievances against Factions that are frequently voiced on these forums - about the content of Factions, the length of the chapter, the shorter time between releases, the lack of UW/FoW/SF add-ons - most people are still playing, and still looking forward towards Nightfall.

I'd say that Nightfall's release is going to be a "make or break" moment for ANet. No one can predict what will happen once chapter 3 is released because we won't even know what's in it until next weekend when we get to preview the new professions, or the PvE preview weekend after that. If ANet tries to take Nightfall in a direction that the players won't like - for example, by showing no support for Factions classes in Nightfall or by introducing game mechanics that put too much strain on the players' understanding of what GW is - and if that leads to a mass exodus of players (rapid or gradual), you could say ANet has "jumped the shark." But as things stand right now, I'd say they haven't, and I hope they don't.

As a follow-up to my previous post, I was thinking that Nightfall might present an excellent opportunity to introduce new content into the old maps as I had described.

We already have a precedent for chaos portals appearing in limited areas in Tyria and Cantha...

What if these portals could be found in dozens of pre-determined places on each continent (each spewing high-level mobs of course)? The outposts nearest to these places would probably recieve nice traffic boosts.

Obviously they would only appear to characters that had the appropriate quests in their log, much like the Titan quests.

I dunno.. im still happy playing Tyria.. not sure how Ill feel once I get bored of that.. mayhap Diablo 3 will be out by then

are you saying that because titles add a long term goal that the game is straying from its simple roots.... I dont really think so, none of that stuff is neccecary and I have yet to see title discrimination outside of hero's ascent. sure its nice, but its purely cosmetic, but what is 15k armor then? its been in the game for a long time. While factions has brought several new things to the game the core remains the same. and the problems I have with the game stem more from the ability to form confident groups or do what I want at any given time rather than anything with the game itself...

Hehe, having played the game for just over 10 months, and onlt forked out cash on 2 occasions, i would say it has a pretty good run. For me its starting to get repetitive, but i dont think the game has jumped the shark like the infamous Fonz. Its not quite that bad yet

The "make or break" moment is very true. It's kind of hard to make a "jump the shark" vote (for myself, anyway). I'm definitely going to sneak a peek at the two new professions, but the make or break moment for me wil be the PvE weekend (if they have one), plus all I can find on the PvE content for Nightfalls.
I read in one thread here that GW's makers were surprised that those people who played PvE didn't jump immediatley into PvP. That might have been their "jump the shark" moment in thought. I'd like to see them recover from that....

Jumping-the-shark refers to the moment in Happy Days when Fonzie jumped over a shark tank in waterskis. It signified a turning point in the show that convinced critics and viewers that the show had fundamentally and permanently strayed from its original premise "The show was going down hill".

The first time that Guild Wars strayed from its original premise was with the introduction of "green items" to the game.

Not the Fonz but cool pic.

Guild wars has in no way come even close to its "Jump the Shark" moment. I wouldn't even predict it happening until like Chapter 5, if then. This game has soooooo much potential it not even funny. For me, the more chapters, the better. Hey, at least we get new content and places to explore every 6 months. Most MMO's have to wait a year or longer before anything remotely new is introduced. Look at WoW. Its been out over a year and they are only getting their first expansion this coming fall!

Go Go Guild Wars!!

And yet they have over 5 million subscribers and don't appear to be in any immediate danger of losing player base -- so I don't think it is hurting them.

WoW isn't my cup of tea, but they must be doing something right.

Haha Fonzie jumping the shark... I love that episode cause it's so embarrasing and corny. What a great phrase and metaphor.

GW hasn't jumped the shark yet, and doesn't look it will any time soon. They've been coming out with new ideas not gimmicks, and some people like them and some people don't. I think a potential "jump the shark" moment for GW would be if the level cap were raised without caution, and max damage on weapons were increased making every single current weapon useless. Maybe they could raise the level cap for future areas only, but seeing level 30's going through Tyria and Cantha would be cheesy, and would degrade my accomplishments. To me that's when a game turns into a grind, and that's what Anet has promised GW won't become from the start.

I think most modern TV sitcoms jump the shark, when all the romance and drama becomes cheesy. For friends it was the whole Ross and Rachel romance fiasco. For the 70's show it was when Jackie and Hyde got together.

I don't think it's happened yet. And, to be honest, I doubt GW will be "jumping the shark" anytime soon. The game retains a lot of charm, replayability, and the original premise remains the same. Factions got a lot of mixed reviews, and Anet itself has taken some shots about design and marketing decisions, but these will die off in time.

Of course they lose subscribers, and they gain new ones. There is no reason to suspect the average WoW player plays longer than the average GW player.

Yes, WoW's done something right, that much is clear, and what it's specifically done is conclusively prove that players are insensitive to cost.

Right - as I said, they aren't losing playerbase. The actualy people may change, but the numbers are going up.

Interesting that you should say that. In a discussion about MMOs on slashdot the other day, someone suggested that GW's success hinges mostly on the fact that it *isn't* WoW and doesn't have its financial model. The went on to say that between WoW and GW, other MMO's are really feeling the squeeze -- at least in America. The implication was that if you are the type to cough up $15 a month for a game, you are probably going to have (at least one) WoW account, and if you aren't you are more likely to end up in GW.

Look at NCSoft's newest game, AutoAssault -- it is virtually stillborn. Supposedly they have had to consolidate all of the US servers into Korea since hardly anyone here was playing.

Then again, people have been saying that the MMO market is limited and reached its max growth for a few years now, but it still has been slowly growing.

They give people what alot of people want. They get e-peen for grinding and in WoW it is easy to show off. In guild wars i could care less if you had fow armor but having uber loot in wow makes you uber just because of the stats.