Wintersday Ladder/ Xunlai Tournement House on Gw.com

skretth

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2006

Australia

alot of people i know that signed up soon as it appeared, just go back to the site to the sign in page and click resend verification

Neo Nugget

Neo Nugget

Site Contributor

Join Date: Jan 2006

R/

i would really hope /bonus....but im trying not to get my hopes up of winning one.....although id like at least one. I doubt theylle be craftable during wintersday.

Former Ruling

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Oct 2005

Cedartown, Georgia

R/

If you signed up yesterday you'll have to resend verification to get it.

you cannot make predictions yet though.

And the page clearly says they'll be one time only things you pick up from an NPC - NOT a /bonus every character thing.

Eviance

Eviance

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

Eh I forget... o_O

Biscuit of Dewm [MEEP]

R/

Yeah so when are they going to let us make predictions? I just checked and its still a no go ;_;

eggs0wn

eggs0wn

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2006

I dont get this? Why do they need your name and stuff? Shouldn't it just be sign in with your regular account. And why in the Terms does it talk about your responsible for injuries and stuff?

*confused*

Edit: Does the password have to be your in-game password or is this like an event account?

Eviance

Eviance

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

Eh I forget... o_O

Biscuit of Dewm [MEEP]

R/

Event account hun, you do NOT have to have the same password - in my case it wouldn't allow for it anyways due to the length of the password...

Anyways the whole terms and agreement crap is just your standard form to cover all bases on everything rather than rewriting a form to fit every tiny event or thing they just use one with mostly the same standards. I doubt your going to break a nail while typing out your predictions, but just in case you do - Anet is covered

Livingston

Livingston

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jul 2006

The Edge of the World

[L] [GET]

I've made my predictions.

Even though I have no idea who the guilds are or how good they are...

And yes you sign up using the same login name that use for GW with a different password.

I put smart people as #1, because you know... um they're smart?

Livingston

arcanemacabre

arcanemacabre

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Kryta Province

Angel Sharks [As]

This is what I put for my top 10:

#1 Team Quitter
#2 Team Everfrost
#3 Necro Raiders
#4 Esoteric Warriors
#5 The Bouncers
#6 Peace and Harmony
#7 Moa Birds
#8 Ominous Latin Name
#9 Ward Against Noobzz
#10 Empty Skillbars

Livingston

Livingston

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jul 2006

The Edge of the World

[L] [GET]

I was j/k about smart people. Here's my top 10:

#1 Team Quitter
#2 Team Everfrost
#3 Frozen Flame
#4 Clan Detained
#5 The Celebrities
#6 Necro Raiders
#7 Supernova Jpn
#8 Chaossanctuary[]
#9 The Bouncers
#10 I Agony Realm I

bebe

bebe

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2005

http://tinyurl.com/4g5ueb8

Put the peanut in the peanut hole!

Signed up.
Confirmation e-mail accepted.

To the polls we goooooooo!!

Parson Brown

Parson Brown

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2006

In ur base...

The one true [Hope]

E/

Made my predictions.

Can any mathmaticians out there figure the odds of getting X number correct with random placement?

Jas D

Jas D

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Feb 2006

Oklahoma, USA

None

It did say that we can change our predictions before the final match or something like that, right? So we can edit it before the match to make it more accurate?

yayrichie

Academy Page

Join Date: Nov 2006

My reactions to what I've read in this thread:
1) Yeah, I had a few issues with the event account registration as well, mostly because the "(10 character maximum)" not beneath password is so small that I looked over it entirely.

2) I do rather hope that the wintergreen weapons are maxed out. Even if Gaile Gray said that the weapons "are the green verions of last year's candy weapons," I can't imagine a-net not making the weapons max, as big of a deal as they're making of them. I mean, the winner of the Winterfest 2006 Ladder Season gets a full set of wintergreen weapons, gold trim on their cape, and a trophy; if the weapons aren't max damage (especially the melee weapons), all they'll really be getting for all of their efforts is a full set of edible crap, in addition to the other minor prizes.
Oh, and, since nobody seems to have posted it, the weapons are inscribable. It says so right below the list of available wintergreen weapons on the rules page.

3) At first, the requirements for winning above one wintergreen weapon seemed a little stiff to me as well, but the addition of the round one pairings should help. Who really knows how easy it will be to predict accurately until we actually do it?

4) I'm personally really excited! The prospect of simply getting an almost non-functional santa hat, reindeer reigns, or other head gear excited me, but an item that will actually have some function?(I feel pretty sure that the wintergreen items will be max.) Perhaps, in the future, a-net will offer even more types of more useful special event items, like functional wintersday armors, especially if we're appreciative...
And I know, auction house > christmas items, even useful ones, but they're still fun...

Parson Brown

Parson Brown

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2006

In ur base...

The one true [Hope]

E/

I'm betting they'll be the same damage as last year, but for the sake of argument, if they were max damage, there would HAVE to be a normal requirement on them.

A max-damage, inscribable (but probably not moddable) weapon would be potentially game-breaking!

DrD

DrD

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2006

Behind you

N/

its prolly gonna be 10-10

AlienFromBeyond

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

Heros of Titans Realm [HotR]

W/

Man, I want to do this just to try and get at least 1 item, but I have absolutely no clue who to put where. I don't pay attention to this sort of thing at all normally =/.

Angel Netherborn

Angel Netherborn

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2006

Lower Ward, Sigil

Goda Vos

I'm not too good with statistics, but what are the odds of getting at least one correct based on pure guesses? It shouldn't be too poor rite?

I wonder if there should be even more selections for those who got incredibly lucky and scored 30-32 points.

Makkert

Makkert

Black Beast of Aarrrrgghh

Join Date: May 2005

The Netherlands

The Biggyverse [PLEB] // Servants of Fortuna [SoF]

Quote:
Originally Posted by yayrichie
2) I do rather hope that the wintergreen weapons are maxed out. Even if Gaile Gray said that the weapons "are the green verions of last year's candy weapons," I can't imagine a-net not making the weapons max, as big of a deal as they're making of them.
prepare to be disappointed.

lemming

lemming

The Hotshot

Join Date: May 2006

Honolulu

International District [id???]

Informal poll: How many primarily pve players have no idea what to put for their bracket?

Eviance

Eviance

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

Eh I forget... o_O

Biscuit of Dewm [MEEP]

R/

yayrichie, last years candy cane weapons were red and white, this year they are "green" and white in APPEARANCE... Basically we will get the 10-10 and the 15-15 damage weapons that instead of red and white will be green and white (think wintergreen! instead of candy cane). They will not be maxed as they are mostly just for show and have no requirement (great for low levels though).
If you are expecting max damage candy cane weapons you will be VERY disappointed.


Quote:
Originally Posted by tehlemming
Informal poll: How many primarily pve players have no idea what to put for their bracket?
Don't feel bad I only recognise about 10 of the names on that list and they rounded out my top ten picks, but I have no idea as to which ones are better, I only know that each of them are good. Besides you never know when an upset might occur -_-

foo

foo

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Feb 2006

Scars Meadows [SMS]

N/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Parson Brown
Made my predictions.

Can any mathmaticians out there figure the odds of getting X number correct with random placement?
Yeah.
Lets say you are clueless and just randomly set them in any order, the probability that you will get at least one point, which will entitles you to 1 candy wepaon, is

1 - (e^(-1)) = 0.632120559 = ~63%

(the formula is supposed to be more complex, but 32 is a big enough number to round it up and use "e").

Considering you placed the better known guilds at the top, and so forth, it's probably a bit higher, and I would intuitively through the number "85%".

Now, if you guessed the order, the probability to get 11 points, which entitles you to two candy weapons, is in effect, zero. (I haven't calculated that, but I'm pretty sure. I'll try to check it out further). if you know how to guess, or took a list from someone who do, then you might have a chance, but I bet that the vast majority of players will have only 1 candy cane weapon per account.

gl everybody.

Livingston

Livingston

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jul 2006

The Edge of the World

[L] [GET]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Parson Brown
I'm betting they'll be the same damage as last year, but for the sake of argument, if they were max damage, there would HAVE to be a normal requirement on them.

A max-damage, inscribable (but probably not moddable) weapon would be potentially game-breaking!
What on earth makes you think that?

Livingston

Avarre

Avarre

Bubblegum Patrol

Join Date: Dec 2005

Singapore Armed Forces

Wand spike is serious business.

AlienFromBeyond

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

Heros of Titans Realm [HotR]

W/

Quote:
Originally Posted by foo
Math

Now, if you guessed the order, the probability to get 11 points, which entitles you to two candy weapons, is in effect, zero. (I haven't calculated that, but I'm pretty sure. I'll try to check it out further). if you know how to guess, or took a list from someone who do, then you might have a chance, but I bet that the vast majority of players will have only 1 candy cane weapon per account.

gl everybody.
So the best shot I have is to look at what other people are putting down and try to match it to some degree?

Livingston

Livingston

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jul 2006

The Edge of the World

[L] [GET]

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienFromBeyond
So the best shot I have is to look at what other people are putting down and try to match it to some degree?
It's very hard to tell with any great accuracy how the teams are going to fair in this tournement, even for those who follow the guilds on a regular basis. The reason being is because they are only allowed to use skills that are core or Nightfall. This means that most of the teams will be playing out of their natural elements.

Thus teams that are normally considered to be rather uber, but constantly use similar builds which rely on skills that they won't have access to during the tourney are naturaly going to be at a huge disadvantage.

There are also those teams that most people in the PVP circuit know to have used "cheap" spike builds to quickly move up the later and thus have "earned" a place in the tourney. It is relatively easy for these types of teams to beat a lot of standard teams, but they'll be smashed to pieces by the true ladder toppers.

Thus more than likely the ones who will do well in this tourney are those teams who are very flexible and are simply all around good players.

As such, it is a safe bet to pick Team Quitter and Team Everfrost to be in position 1 or 2. Opinions will vary on who will take the cake, but it should be pretty close.

It's also pretty safe to say that Frozen Flame will probably be in the top 5.

Were I someone who knew absolutely nothing about any of the teamns or how the system worked, I would find as many people's lists that I could who seem to know what they are talking about and compare them. There will definitely be a lot of variety in the choices but more than likely you will notice that there will be at least 4 teams that are somewhere on nearly all of their top 10s, and conversely 4 teams that will be at the bottom 10.

Thus it would be a safe bet to match that to some degree.

The whacky thing about the way it is set up is that even if someone knew exactly how good all of the teams were and how well they should be against each other, if one team surprises them and makes it to a top spot when they thought they would be a lot lower, it would throw off their entire list.

For example take my list:

#1 Team Quitter
#2 Team Everfrost
#3 Frozen Flame
#4 Clan Detained
#5 The Celebrities
#6 Necro Raiders
#7 Supernova Jpn
#8 Chaossanctuary[]
#9 The Bouncers
#10 I Agony Realm I

Now say that I was the lord of knowledge on this subject (which I'm not by any stretch of the imgination ) and based on everything I know, this is what I predict will happen. And I am so good that it does, but with one exception:

#1 Team Quitter
#2 The Bouncers
#3 Team Everfrost
#4 Frozen Flame
#5 Clan Detained
#6 The Celebrities
#7 Necro Raiders
#8 Supernova Jpn
#9 Chaossanctuary[]
#10 I Agony Realm I

The Bouncers miraculously beat out everyone to take spot two on the charts. Now the fact that I was indeed so accurate but was wrong about the surprise team, that has thrown nearly my whole list off. Where as I accurately predicted how ever team would do in relation to the other's positions, since I was off with one, I thus become off on all of them but two.

In an even extremer case, say it was I Agony Realm I that was the surprise team and they took #1. Even though every other relative postition is perfect, that has completely thrown off the whole list, and thus every single one of them is wrong.

So you see it's possible that even those with an extreme amount of knowledge could be put in an even worse position due to how accurate they actually are.

Of course this is nearly impossible to do, so I think my early suggestion of randomly charting the list based on common team in the top 10 and bottom 10 is probably the best way to go, and is similar to the method I used to construct my own list.

Also for those who do nothing more than put Team Quitter, Team Everfrost, and Frozen Flame in the top positions because I suggested it and win, please send me a PM and let me know. It would be interesting to see how many that knowledge effects. And just so you know the first two are indeed by far the popular favorites to take the win.

Livingston

Marsun

Academy Page

Join Date: Sep 2006

Forces of Valhall [XFVX]

R/Mo

uhm.. I still haven't got my confirmation mail.

Is it now I should start crying?

ump

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Nov 2005

I'm having a weird problem with making my selections. I took a while to think about it. I reordered positions 1-32 in the order I guessed. When I hit the update predictions, it said below is the prediction you have made, but I only see 1st with an empty selection and none of the 2-32 choices. I tried closing my browser and logging in again in both IE and Firefox, but I still can't see my selection. Any ideas on how I can ensure my selections were made the way I wanted?

arcanemacabre

arcanemacabre

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Kryta Province

Angel Sharks [As]

Great post, Livingston! That's going to be a huge help for us all. It's true that we really can't know, even with knowledge of who all is good. Truthfully, anyone can surprise and hit the #1 spot, throwing everything else off. At least by having a reliable top 10, everyone will have a higher chance of at least getting one item.

Aleria

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Apr 2005

Qld Australia

ABM

R/Mo

I registered yesterday and sent in another resend email that they have on the bottom of the login form last night but still have not had an email sent back to me. Hopefully I will get one sent to me so I can choose before it ends.

roku-dragonslayer

roku-dragonslayer

Banned

Join Date: May 2005

USA

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by ump
I'm having a weird problem with making my selections. I took a while to think about it. I reordered positions 1-32 in the order I guessed. When I hit the update predictions, it said below is the prediction you have made, but I only see 1st with an empty selection and none of the 2-32 choices. I tried closing my browser and logging in again in both IE and Firefox, but I still can't see my selection. Any ideas on how I can ensure my selections were made the way I wanted?
This exact same thing happened to me. I hope everything worked okay.

Chaz Rea

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Nov 2005

UK

W/

I'm having an annoying problem with this. I want to change my ordering around slightly, so I log in and do that, then press update, then continue. But then I just see my old order instead of the new one :/

Ensign

Ensign

Just Plain Fluffy

Join Date: Dec 2004

Berkeley, CA

Idiot Savants

Quote:
Originally Posted by Parson Brown
Can any mathmaticians out there figure the odds of getting X number correct with random placement?
Yes. There might be some trick to cleaning up the mathematics, but I don't know a clean way to calculate the odds of getting exactly zero teams correct from a field of arbitrary size. This is inconvenient because the formula for getting N teams correct from a field of T teams is (T!/(N!*(T-N)!))*(Number of ways to get 0 correct from a field size of (T-N)). If anyone knows how to clean up that latter formula please let me know.

As is, I had to solve everything recursively (you solve for the 1 case, then calculate all the odds for specific cases and subtract from total cases to get the odds of getting zero, which lets you do the next batch.)

The upshot is the following odds:
21-30 Correct Selections: 7.54263E-21
11-20 Correct Selections: 1.00478E-08
1-10 Correct Selections: 0.632120549
0 Correct Selections: 0.367879441

I've attached a spreadsheet containing my work for those interested.

Peace,
-CxE

KANE OG

KANE OG

Banned

Join Date: Oct 2005

Ogmios Graybeards

W/

Quote:
Originally Posted by ump
I'm having a weird problem with making my selections. I took a while to think about it. I reordered positions 1-32 in the order I guessed. When I hit the update predictions, it said below is the prediction you have made, but I only see 1st with an empty selection and none of the 2-32 choices. I tried closing my browser and logging in again in both IE and Firefox, but I still can't see my selection. Any ideas on how I can ensure my selections were made the way I wanted?
Same here, I'd better not get screwed out of any winnings here. Can someone else give some advice on what may be the problem? I'd really like to change one or two predictions, but it shows I haven't made any.

Cherno

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

Stars of Destiny

E/

I'm having the same problem. I just hit save without making any changes, now when I go to change them, I have just a number 1 box which is empty. I click on update selections and it says it has been saved.

Kelv

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2006

Xen of Onslaught [XoO]

W/

Ok, so Livingston posted a great post on the top 10, but that's only 5/16ths of the bracket, how about the worst teams? who do you all think will get knocked out first round? My vote goes for L I Z Z A R D, but that's just me, if anyone thinks they have a good bracket and would like to share their bottom half of the list, that would be great

Angel Netherborn

Angel Netherborn

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2006

Lower Ward, Sigil

Goda Vos

seeing that we around a 60-80% chance of getting at least 1 team correct, that's good enough for me. And seeing people having problems making changes, it's probably wiser for me not to make any more changes.

gl all!

Neo Nugget

Neo Nugget

Site Contributor

Join Date: Jan 2006

R/

yep but as i would be happy with just one candy cane wintergreen weapon(to add to my full cc and gingerbead weapon collection), i am wondering if the scythe , spear and daggers will be available this wintersday and normal cc weapons (if any at all....but i try not to think about that lol). Anyways its gonna be a pain to decide if im lucky enough to get one *excited*times infinity*and if i dont get one.....ill buy one....yes i want one that bad lol.

Wilhelm

Wilhelm

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jul 2006

Canada eh

looking for mature, luxon pvx guild

Mo/

Purely for the hope that JR won't lock any of my threads in the near future.....I put Frozen Flame at 1

Anways, where's WM. eviL, iQ, RenO? Seems kind of odd without any of those guys in the tournament.

MMSDome

MMSDome

Raged Out

Join Date: Sep 2005

screw being strategic with who you pick. I started out looknig at ratings and all that bs and i said "The hell with it" so then i just moved all the name sall over the place and my predictions are completely random, go me!

Shaw Shank

Shaw Shank

Banned

Join Date: Sep 2005

Barons of Bikini Bottoms

Mo/W

is anyone else not being allowed to edit their choices for the xunlai tournament for the 2nd or 3rd time?

i log in then it says it is showing my selections but all that is showing is an empty number 1 slot