I've been noticing something weird with the drops this weekend. I've spoken to the guys in my alliance and the same thing is happening for them. I'm going to use probably the most farmed green in Cantha as my example: Scar Eater. I don't actually need scar eaters but i just find farming him quite fun for some reason. Anyways...
With the last triple green drop weekend in Cantha, Scar Eater would drop his green perhaps once every 2 or 3 goes at least and often more than this. This happened even though a very high number of people were farming him.
This event however, Scar Eater seems to be dropping his Green much much less often. e.g. Yesterday I killed him around 8 times before getting the drop and then i got quite a few within a few runs which i thought was probably things working as they should. However today I logged on and farmed him 10-15 times: nothing. Then i went to farm some Kaolin and got plenty of greens. Then I went back to Scar Eater, again nothing after another 10 or so goes. So I am now avoiding him in case of anti farm. I thought I may just have been unlucky and didnt get the drop before anti farm kicked in, however i noticed a number of people in the alliance were complaining of the same thing today.
Could it be that because so many people are farming him his green is being shared across all the farmers? I was under the impression each player had a given chance to get the greens in an instance regardless of what other players were doing. The fact that the event is a blanket triple drop rate seems to support my way of thinking on that. However in that case, why is one particular boss dropping much less frequently than other bosses?
Scar Eater Drops and the Green Drop System
Sooty
SodOffShotgun
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Originally Posted by Sooty
Could it be that because so many people are farming him his green is being shared across all the farmers?
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And I've never had such good luck where I got a green every 2 or 3 tries even during triple green events. Other people are reporting that they're doing just fine. It's most likely just a streak of bad luck in your case.
Cacheelma
I think we should make a sticky saying "Your drops are NOT depending on other people OUTSIDE your instance."
....maybe at least during any of the 3x drop weekends. I'm kinda tired of these people throwing such myth around, despite Gaile's words.
....maybe at least during any of the 3x drop weekends. I'm kinda tired of these people throwing such myth around, despite Gaile's words.
Sooty
Well yeah that's what i thought too but then a group of people in my alliance said something along the lines of whats with the drops today for SE, it was good yesterday....
I'm thinking it's anti farm going a bit funny because other bosses are fine with their drop rate. It's odd that I would be on anti farm during a green drop event before actually getting the green though. To not get one SE is unusual after so many runs even if it wasn't a green drop event. As most regular E/A A/E farmers would know Scar Eater actually seems to be one of those bosses who is more happy to hand over his green than others.
And even if i am just unlucky, whats with the other guys in my alliance who've got 1 or none SE's today where yesterday they got plenty? Perhaps it's anti farm that's changed, since all of us farmed him a lot yesterday and then logged off overnight. Maybe we were still 'flagged' this morning.
edit: and i'm not throwing myths around i'm telling you whats happened to me and several other people today. We're not noobs, i'm not trying to start something, i'm just saying that somethin weird is happenin with this one boss today, that is all.
I'm thinking it's anti farm going a bit funny because other bosses are fine with their drop rate. It's odd that I would be on anti farm during a green drop event before actually getting the green though. To not get one SE is unusual after so many runs even if it wasn't a green drop event. As most regular E/A A/E farmers would know Scar Eater actually seems to be one of those bosses who is more happy to hand over his green than others.
And even if i am just unlucky, whats with the other guys in my alliance who've got 1 or none SE's today where yesterday they got plenty? Perhaps it's anti farm that's changed, since all of us farmed him a lot yesterday and then logged off overnight. Maybe we were still 'flagged' this morning.
edit: and i'm not throwing myths around i'm telling you whats happened to me and several other people today. We're not noobs, i'm not trying to start something, i'm just saying that somethin weird is happenin with this one boss today, that is all.
KANE OG
Got it on the fourth try with a full party (2 real people and heroes). Let's put a freakin end to these dumbass "things aren't dropping" threads! For God's sake these things are RANDOM! End of story. There is no method or madness... it's RANDOM! Just move on!
KANE OG
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Originally Posted by Cacheelma
I think we should make a sticky saying "Your drops are NOT depending on other people OUTSIDE your instance."
....maybe at least during any of the 3x drop weekends. I'm kinda tired of these people throwing such myth around, despite Gaile's words. |
SodOffShotgun
Yeah people won't read the sticky threads but at least mods then can delete any of these threads on site. Spreading myths is bad.
Sooty
umm no they are not random. Each green typically has a certain chance to drop. This % chance may or may not be higher or lower for certain bosses.
During a Green Weekend this % chance is increased, in this case multiplied by 3. Hence if a green typically drops 20% of the time, this weekend it drops 60% of the time. Yes you may have long streaks of bad luck where you don't get the drop, but statistically over an infinite number of attempts you will get the drop 60% of the time. The only influence on this is anti farm, which we don't know a lot about.
Seriously guys read the OP before posting some crap about spreading myths, I'm telling you what i've observed and postulating on why that was observed. If you have observed something else or the same then say so. If you want to respond to a thread spreading myths then go somewhere else because thats not what this is about.
Edit: Was just speaking with whoever was in Vasburg in the all chat, for some people it's fine and they're getting quite a few scar eaters at a 'normal' rate for the weekend, other people are not getting a single one after many runs. So seems to be either 'as expected' or 'none at all'.
During a Green Weekend this % chance is increased, in this case multiplied by 3. Hence if a green typically drops 20% of the time, this weekend it drops 60% of the time. Yes you may have long streaks of bad luck where you don't get the drop, but statistically over an infinite number of attempts you will get the drop 60% of the time. The only influence on this is anti farm, which we don't know a lot about.
Seriously guys read the OP before posting some crap about spreading myths, I'm telling you what i've observed and postulating on why that was observed. If you have observed something else or the same then say so. If you want to respond to a thread spreading myths then go somewhere else because thats not what this is about.
Edit: Was just speaking with whoever was in Vasburg in the all chat, for some people it's fine and they're getting quite a few scar eaters at a 'normal' rate for the weekend, other people are not getting a single one after many runs. So seems to be either 'as expected' or 'none at all'.
Lotrfish
I've been getting them at about every 6-8 runs solo. Not as high as you say is normal, but at least I'm getting some.
strcpy
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Originally Posted by Sooty
umm no they are not random.
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Random systems also tend to attract superstitious people - it's random so some get lucky and some get screwed. You can easily find people who have "systems" for winning coin tosses that swear they have found a pattern. People who think that carrying things like a rabbit foot (or other charm) somehow in someway create a situation where a coin flip isn't close to 1/2 as to the outcome even though if they actually took enough samples it would come back 1/2.
The devs know how they calculate drops - while code can be complex and some interactions tough it is not hard to know if you keep track of farmers per area or not. That's not something that just gets accumulated while no one knows it and the game reacts to it with no one being the wiser - we do not have SkyNet and a self aware system that modifies itself.
The devs, through Gaile, say they do not. You can assume they are lying, but then just make up whatever system you like as there is no basis other than your own thoughts for it.
Cacheelma
You dare bringing stats up and fail to realise that your sample size is far FAR away from "big enough", right?
Kityn
Canthan Greens are dropping about 1 out of 3 runs for me. I have not heard of what you are experiancing from any of my Guildmates or Alliance members. Could be just bad luck.
SodOffShotgun
Why is this thread still open?
Mesmer in Need
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Originally Posted by strcpy
. Think of it this way - you flip a coin 10,000 times and get heads every time - what is the chance you will get heads on the next flip? 1/2 - every flip is the same chance.
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Patrick Smit
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Originally Posted by Mesmer in Need
there ya go. if you farmed it 10 times and noo drop, chances are that you would get one soon after. therefore, its not random.
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I would guess this mechanic is not used in an instance of GW monster drops. You cannot determine how big the chance is that it will drop next time. you can only calculate how unlucky you were for not getting it in x runs*.
* therefor u can also determine what the CHANCE is to get it in X runs. But you must abide by this, chances are no certainty.
Sooty
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Originally Posted by SodOffShotgun
Why is this thread still open?
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At any rate, the green situation for today is:
After 34 attempts spread over the entire day. Zero Scar Eaters.
After 3 attempts at each of the three kaolin staffs, I came away with one of each. So that's 3 from 9.
Sunreach dropped first go (lucky me).
Those are the results. 34 for zero drops is pretty bad in my books compared to the other drops I got but there ya go. Considering it was the only boss to never drop all day after so many attempts i find it a little odd, hence this thread. If it's just bad luck it's pretty specific bad luck around one boss, that's the part that seems weird. Anti farm seems like a logical explanation, in which case it must have included the runs i'd made 12 hrs before my first one today.
Anarion Silverhand
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Originally Posted by SodOffShotgun
Why is this thread still open?
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On-topic, as people have stated, drops are entirely random. Don't think you're nerfed, because I've done my share of the Scar Eater runs and just got one after 15+ runs.
SodOffShotgun
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Originally Posted by Anarion Silverhand
Gotta love +1 postcount posts.
On-topic, as people have stated, drops are entirely random. Don't think you're nerfed, because I've done my share of the Scar Eater runs and just got one after 15+ runs. |
I was asking a legitimate question since the thread was started on a baseless assumption and another one of those threads that spreads the myth that the number of people online affects drops. Plus the question he asked was already answered, hell I was the one to answer it in the second post, so what's left to debate?
glountz
I had a strange feeling while farming greens.
Of course, that's only a feeling, but...
I went with my GF and 6 heroes/henchies to advance our remaining prophecies characters through factions campaign.
And also I went solo farming with an Ass/El and my G/X to farm solos some greens.
Surprisingly, I had no real difference between green drops with my GF and solo.
Farmed solo Quansong 5 times, no green.
Farmes solo Scar eater 4 times, one green on fourth run.
Went with my GF to Mourning Veil Falls for Elite capping: 3 greens.
Of course it could be only luck, but this is quite strange.
But if some people could count their success rate (greens found/number of runs pondered by people in groups). Just to see some numbers....
Of course, that's only a feeling, but...
I went with my GF and 6 heroes/henchies to advance our remaining prophecies characters through factions campaign.
And also I went solo farming with an Ass/El and my G/X to farm solos some greens.
Surprisingly, I had no real difference between green drops with my GF and solo.
Farmed solo Quansong 5 times, no green.
Farmes solo Scar eater 4 times, one green on fourth run.
Went with my GF to Mourning Veil Falls for Elite capping: 3 greens.
Of course it could be only luck, but this is quite strange.
But if some people could count their success rate (greens found/number of runs pondered by people in groups). Just to see some numbers....
ss1986v2
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Originally Posted by Sooty
Seriously guys read the OP before posting some crap about spreading myths, I'm telling you what i've observed and postulating on why that was observed. If you have observed something else or the same then say so. If you want to respond to a thread spreading myths then go somewhere else because thats not what this is about.
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drops are random, ie you could do 100 runs and still get nothing, while i could do 5 runs and get the drop each time. no conspiracy.
The Last Cruzader
I farmed Rajazan for 53 runs, and on the 54th he dropped. It's all based on luck and the chances of getting the green just like the other people stated above.
Ariena Najea
This is just simple probability...
When you have a sequence of events, such as the flipping of a coin. Half the time you'll get tails, half heads obviously. Each flip "resets" the probability, every time that you flip the coin it will still be a 50/50 chance of it being heads or tails.
What you're confusing this with is the probability of a given sequence, for example getting 2 heads in a row. Think of tree diagrams here, to get two heads in a row will happen about 25% of the time, 3 heads in a row would be 12.5%, and so on and so forth. However, when you make that 3rd flip, there is still a 50/50 chance of getting a heads or tails, whatever the sequential probability is.
As has been said earlier in the thread, you could even never have a drop. Yes, it's very un-probable, but that's all it is... probability. It's not a definite method of knowing an outcome, it's just a prediction of possible statistics.
~Ariena
When you have a sequence of events, such as the flipping of a coin. Half the time you'll get tails, half heads obviously. Each flip "resets" the probability, every time that you flip the coin it will still be a 50/50 chance of it being heads or tails.
What you're confusing this with is the probability of a given sequence, for example getting 2 heads in a row. Think of tree diagrams here, to get two heads in a row will happen about 25% of the time, 3 heads in a row would be 12.5%, and so on and so forth. However, when you make that 3rd flip, there is still a 50/50 chance of getting a heads or tails, whatever the sequential probability is.
As has been said earlier in the thread, you could even never have a drop. Yes, it's very un-probable, but that's all it is... probability. It's not a definite method of knowing an outcome, it's just a prediction of possible statistics.
~Ariena
Anarion Silverhand
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Originally Posted by SodOffShotgun
the question he asked was already answered
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Patrick Smit
if my binomial calculus isn't rusted too much that would come up to P=0.006 (0.6%) that u don't find anything after 100 runs (assumed dropchance of 5%). It means like you are really unlucky ^^
some guy
They are just random.
My guild leader got like 10 of them in 1 hour.
My guild leader got like 10 of them in 1 hour.
Jeremy Untouchable
this weekend...me 5 greens..ally member 87 greens...My point is, some people are better farmers. and some are just lucky
Sid Doog
I have farmed scar about 50 times and goten 23 of them so almost once ever 2
chicks boy
Lol farmed scar eater 12 -15 times, finnaly he drop The green, then i stop farming then i go to UW lol. Seriusly, Scar eater doesnt drop that often on this event, Ecto farming FTW d
Tarkin
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Originally Posted by Cacheelma
I think we should make a sticky saying "Your drops are NOT depending on other people OUTSIDE your instance."
....maybe at least during any of the 3x drop weekends. I'm kinda tired of these people throwing such myth around, despite Gaile's words. |
SodOffShotgun
Disbelieving what an authority of the game has said many times does not make you less gullible and smarter than others. It just makes you willfully ignorant especially when even simple logic tells you that chance is a very erratic thing.
bungusmaximus
Its just sheer luck people, stop bickering about anti-farming code, farming is challenging enough as it is. The closest thing to anti-farming are random oni-spawns IMO. Why would aNet care about farmers that much that they would invest time in hacking the code just to bug us? i can't see the logic in that. I had one scar eater in about 10 armory runs, i had Vera, jaynes staff x2, geoffers bulwark, sskais sword and some shitty necro/ele greens. All these areas I farmed till my eyes bled long ago already, and still I get the drops. I can't find a pattern in it either, random=luck or bad luck, maybe it's written in the stars :P
//RogueNine
Personally Ive had no problem this weekened where I had problems getting anything other weekends. Im pretty sure its just random luck though.
Neo Nugget
um i got like 15 scar eaters.....mabye im lucky.
scrinner
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Originally Posted by Myria
I have made no claims, save that, to the best of my knowledge no one who is in a position to know has said anything definitive about how the drop system operates. Given that, and absent strong evidence to the contrary, any theory is as good as any other.
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Guldur
Well, based on ghial drops:
my friend got 5 in 7 runs.
I got 2 in 25 runs.
So i am guessing that, more then probability, it has to do with farm flags and other evil unknown things.
my friend got 5 in 7 runs.
I got 2 in 25 runs.
So i am guessing that, more then probability, it has to do with farm flags and other evil unknown things.
KANE OG
Prediction: Thread closed with the Mod stating, "Drops are random".... after their weekend break of course!
And it's true. No debate whatsoever.
And it's true. No debate whatsoever.
Cacheelma
....Do we have to REPEAT all this everytime there is a 3x chance weekend?
Some people would come up with "I don't get any drop this week. It must be that there are too many people farming this weekend so the chance of me getting the drop is less, blah blah blah my alliance said so (as if that means anything) blah blah".
Then some people would say that they've got more drops than usual, while some people would refer to previous Gaile's messages about how people outside your instance don't affect you in ANY way (other than, well, maybe lag). THEN some ignorant individuals would come up with "I don't believe Gaile" or "She lied before" or something like that. Then the mods would close such thread for "Gaile bashing" (although sometimes it don't go that far).
See the trend? or better, REMEMBER the threads?
No? Well, poor you. Here they are.-
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10078129
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10075774
You may notice in the second link above (Darksong something) that Myria also posted similar replies on such thread, in which I've posted some replies to her citing Gaile's words, and then Gaile decided to reply to the thread as well. Clearly she decided to ignore them and instead posted the exact same stuff here, AGAIN.
I guess I'll just copy all this into a text file so I can REPOST it again in the next event.
Some people would come up with "I don't get any drop this week. It must be that there are too many people farming this weekend so the chance of me getting the drop is less, blah blah blah my alliance said so (as if that means anything) blah blah".
Then some people would say that they've got more drops than usual, while some people would refer to previous Gaile's messages about how people outside your instance don't affect you in ANY way (other than, well, maybe lag). THEN some ignorant individuals would come up with "I don't believe Gaile" or "She lied before" or something like that. Then the mods would close such thread for "Gaile bashing" (although sometimes it don't go that far).
See the trend? or better, REMEMBER the threads?
No? Well, poor you. Here they are.-
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10078129
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10075774
You may notice in the second link above (Darksong something) that Myria also posted similar replies on such thread, in which I've posted some replies to her citing Gaile's words, and then Gaile decided to reply to the thread as well. Clearly she decided to ignore them and instead posted the exact same stuff here, AGAIN.
I guess I'll just copy all this into a text file so I can REPOST it again in the next event.
Pwny Ride
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Originally Posted by Sooty
I've been noticing something weird with the drops this weekend. I've spoken to the guys in my alliance and the same thing is happening for them. I'm going to use probably the most farmed green in Cantha as my example: Scar Eater. I don't actually need scar eaters but i just find farming him quite fun for some reason. Anyways...
With the last triple green drop weekend in Cantha, Scar Eater would drop his green perhaps once every 2 or 3 goes at least and often more than this. This happened even though a very high number of people were farming him. This event however, Scar Eater seems to be dropping his Green much much less often. e.g. Yesterday I killed him around 8 times before getting the drop and then i got quite a few within a few runs which i thought was probably things working as they should. However today I logged on and farmed him 10-15 times: nothing. Then i went to farm some Kaolin and got plenty of greens. Then I went back to Scar Eater, again nothing after another 10 or so goes. So I am now avoiding him in case of anti farm. I thought I may just have been unlucky and didnt get the drop before anti farm kicked in, however i noticed a number of people in the alliance were complaining of the same thing today. Could it be that because so many people are farming him his green is being shared across all the farmers? I was under the impression each player had a given chance to get the greens in an instance regardless of what other players were doing. The fact that the event is a blanket triple drop rate seems to support my way of thinking on that. However in that case, why is one particular boss dropping much less frequently than other bosses? |
More people farming it makes no difference, since maps are set up for you personally, and its dropping less because you farm it too much.
ElinoraNeSangre
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Originally Posted by Sooty
Sunreach dropped first go (lucky me).
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Edit: gah 16. I hate you Sunreach. :P
Edit again: okay 17th must be the charm; that, or Wammo Koss scared him good because he dropped his shield. After that, Wing Three Blade netted me my first run of Sup vigor! :: dance ::
bungusmaximus
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Originally Posted by Guldur
Well, based on ghial drops:
my friend got 5 in 7 runs. I got 2 in 25 runs. So i am guessing that, more then probability, it has to do with farm flags and other evil unknown things. |