Shamrock Ale vs Clover Drop Rate - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

Lothlorian Sassun

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2006

Dragonestos

N/

17 Mar 2007 at 10:46 - 1

I have been Farming off and on all day for these and have Noticed I have been getting Dead Even drop rates for Clover and Ale? If it is Random Drop % for these items you would think that you would get a Random swing one way or the other in the drops you were getting but as it stands now I have gotten 66 Clovers and 66 Shamrock Ale. You would not think that the Lucky or Unlucky titles would have anything to do with drop rates. I don't have tier 1 of either title. I just found this very odd. Was wondering what other peoples drop rate has been and if you also have gotten the same amount of each Drop or not.

Meo Yeong

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Oct 2005

Canada Eh!

Test

Mo/E

17 Mar 2007 at 13:18 - 2

Ive been getting a 2 clover rate to every 1 ale.

Raxxman

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Dec 2005

TEOC

W/N

17 Mar 2007 at 13:20 - 3

12 Ales, 2 clovers....

Ah well

Drink!

Spazzer

Jungle Guide

Join Date: May 2006

USA

Team Asshat [Hat]

Mo/E

17 Mar 2007 at 13:25 - 4

40 Clovers, 41 Ales.

leeky baby

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

Surrey University

Starting to play again... need a guild

W/E

17 Mar 2007 at 13:29 - 5

4 ale 8 leaf

2:1 ale by the looks

Slabby

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Belgium

[SCAR]

17 Mar 2007 at 14:00 - 6

13 clovers vs. 5 ales
2/3 clovers ?
1/3 ales ?

BuD

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Mar 2006

Nunya

E/Mo

17 Mar 2007 at 14:01 - 7

50 Clovers
48 Ales (which I gave to a guildie working on her Drunkard Title

)

Seems like 50/50 for me

Evilsod

Banned

Join Date: Mar 2006

England

Lievs Death Squad [LDS]

17 Mar 2007 at 14:03 - 8

I've been getting slightly more Ale than Clovers, seems 50/50 to be honest.

X Chilli

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jan 2006

[LGiT]

W/

17 Mar 2007 at 14:04 - 9

24 ales
20 clovers

kinda 50/50 for me too

tuna-fish_sushi

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Dec 2005

California

E/A

17 Mar 2007 at 14:06 - 10

21clovers -19ale for me

Jetdoc

Hell's Protector

Join Date: Jul 2005

The Eyes of Texas [BEVO]

D/A

17 Mar 2007 at 14:08 - 11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meo Yeong

Ive been getting a 2 clover rate to every 1 ale.

Same here - 4 clovers and 2 ales just playing the game without farming.

Diaden

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jun 2006

Phoenix Arisen

R/

17 Mar 2007 at 14:11 - 12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lothlorian Sassun

I have been Farming off and on all day for these and have Noticed I have been getting Dead Even drop rates for Clover and Ale? If it is Random Drop % for these items you would think that you would get a Random swing one way or the other in the drops you were getting but as it stands now I have gotten 66 Clovers and 66 Shamrock Ale. You would not think that the Lucky or Unlucky titles would have anything to do with drop rates. I don't have tier 1 of either title. I just found this very odd. Was wondering what other peoples drop rate has been and if you also have gotten the same amount of each Drop or not.

if it truly is random, then, when holiday items drop, you should expect about a 1 to 1 ratio of clovers to ale given a sufficiently large sampling. In other words, if you have only 5 holiday drops, 4 clovers and 1 ale is not odd..but if you had 50 holiday drops and you had something like 35 ales and 15 clovers, then you'd have some reason to suspect the drop rate of the holiday items, when they drop, is not quite random. When an event is truly random, the probability of selecting one item in the group from among the others is 1/n (where n is the number of items/possibilities). In this case, that'd be 1/2..so 50/50 is to be expected - which seems to be the case for me...i think i'm at 29 ales and 27 clovers or somethin.

Kook~NBK~

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Mar 2005

A little chalet outside Drok's

Natural Born Killaz

17 Mar 2007 at 14:38 - 13

I've gotten about a 50/50 split as well. Twenty-something of each.

onerabbit

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Mar 2006

Thanks to all the guru [mods]

17 Mar 2007 at 15:21 - 14

12 ale 11 leafs..

LifeInfusion

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

in the midline

E/Mo

17 Mar 2007 at 15:36 - 15

2 ales in 2 hours

Shadow_7

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Mar 2006

Raiders of Gilead

W/R

17 Mar 2007 at 15:54 - 16

For me 50/50; however, drop rate is very low, even lower than any other holiday items in the past.

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

17 Mar 2007 at 17:48 - 17

38 clovers 32 ales. Seems 50/50 over the long term. And shadow, drop rate seems very high to me, maybe even double what cc shards were.

raven214

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2005

R/

17 Mar 2007 at 18:31 - 18

I seem to be getting 2:1 in favor of clovers.

Aerian_Skybane

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2006

House of Caeruleous [HoC]

R/E

17 Mar 2007 at 18:32 - 19

I have gotten a 50/50 split abouts. Makes sense.

BTW, where does everyone go to farm these things, i have just been ripping through Kryta areas lol.

Gwmaster

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Sep 2005

Canada/Quebec

N/

17 Mar 2007 at 19:50 - 20

26 clovers 15 ales here

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

17 Mar 2007 at 20:08 - 21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aerian_Skybane

I have gotten a 50/50 split abouts. Makes sense.

BTW, where does everyone go to farm these things, i have just been ripping through Kryta areas lol.

I've been troll farming. I figure I might as well make some cash while I'm getting these things.

Former Ruling

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Oct 2005

Cedartown, Georgia

R/

17 Mar 2007 at 20:12 - 22

At first I had like 20 Clovers and like 3 Ales, but they have evened out since.

Mclarenf1905

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jul 2006

Ohio

[CDH]

R/

18 Mar 2007 at 01:31 - 23

I have 12 ales and 14 clovers
I've been farming them in shing jey

Yaga Philipe

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Mar 2007

Insanity

Vis Decus Vertus [vDv]

R/

18 Mar 2007 at 02:11 - 24

1 ale/1 shamrock

even for me!

anna

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Aug 2006

18 Mar 2007 at 02:24 - 25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lothlorian Sassun

If it is Random Drop % for these items you would think that you would get a Random swing one way or the other in the drops you were getting but as it stands now I have gotten 66 Clovers and 66 Shamrock Ale.

That doesn't really make sense.

"Random" means equal chances for each possibility. With only 2 potential outcomes (ale or clover) for each unique drop instance, there is a 50% probability (i.e., an even chance) for either a clover or an ale.

Of course there will be some deviation, but it's equivalent to a coin flip.

Lothlorian Sassun

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2006

Dragonestos

N/

18 Mar 2007 at 04:30 - 26

Yeah i know and sometimes when i flip a coin I will get tails 10 times in a row

111 Shamrock Ales 109 Clovers now... Very Even ... 50/50

anna

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Aug 2006

18 Mar 2007 at 06:10 - 27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lothlorian Sassun

Yeah i know and sometimes when i flip a coin I will get tails 10 times in a row

I'm a little surprised at that. There's less than a 1/1000 chance of that happening. And you've done it more than once? (you said "sometimes"). I've never tried it myself; don't have the patience.

More on point, I've gotten 13 clovers and 16 ales so far. I need more though, because I'm greedy! Something more along the lines of your stash.

Lothlorian Sassun

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2006

Dragonestos

N/

18 Mar 2007 at 06:43 - 28

Quote:

Originally Posted by anna

I'm a little surprised at that. There's less than a 1/1000 chance of that happening. And you've done it more than once? (you said "sometimes"). I've never tried it myself; don't have the patience.

More on point, I've gotten 13 clovers and 16 ales so far. I need more though, because I'm greedy! Something more along the lines of your stash.

Oh well. First Thread I have started and I was pretty sure Somebody would flame me or call me a lier or say something about my mother heheh

No big deal. Just thought it was Odd that I was getting almost exact 50/50 drop rate on the weekend items. Perhaps some think this is a silly question seeing as it is quite apparent that the answer is they Have the same Drop %

I just wanted to confirm this is what everyone else was getting and this appears to be the case. Thanks for all the responses everyone.

MYSTERYouse

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Mar 2007

Slovakia

Farming Crew UK [Fcuk]

E/

18 Mar 2007 at 09:11 - 29

For me its the same, I got 60/62 (Ale,Clovers), so it looks its 1:1 ratio.

raven214

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2005

R/

18 Mar 2007 at 15:47 - 30

The ratio has since evened out for me.

The Last Anthem

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Aug 2006

my guildhall.

Mo/

18 Mar 2007 at 16:01 - 31

3 clover 1 ale...just from doing THK on my mesmer.. too lazy to farm :/

Fenrik de Arvis

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Apr 2006

World of Players

R/

18 Mar 2007 at 17:01 - 32

7 ales - 1 clover

Skawtt

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jun 2005

Oregon

W/N

18 Mar 2007 at 17:43 - 33

102 Ales 111 Shamrocks.....Tho I did get drunk a couple of times.

Zonzai

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Feb 2005

E/

18 Mar 2007 at 20:13 - 34

I have more clovers than ales too.

DunedainJedi

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jan 2007

Guard of the Citadel

W/

18 Mar 2007 at 21:17 - 35

I've only have four ales, but I traded them to a guildy for clovers.

Parson Brown

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2006

In ur base...

The one true [Hope]

E/

19 Mar 2007 at 03:50 - 36

Slightly more clover than ale, but really close.

Phaern Majes

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Sep 2005

Anywhere but up

The Panserbjorne [ROAR]

R/Mo

19 Mar 2007 at 04:18 - 37

Quote:

Originally Posted by anna

I'm a little surprised at that. There's less than a 1/1000 chance of that happening. And you've done it more than once? (you said "sometimes"). I've never tried it myself; don't have the patience.

More on point, I've gotten 13 clovers and 16 ales so far. I need more though, because I'm greedy! Something more along the lines of your stash.

If you had tried you'd know that you can time the flip of a coin. That way you can always catch it a certain way. Well not always, but with enough practice you can get what you want most of the time.

Anyways my ratio is pretty close to 1:1, though I don't have alot of either.

FlameoutAlchemist

Hitmonk Extraordinarre!!

Join Date: Jan 2007

Lurking moar on my forums

Starvin Chillin on Lincoln Drive [MAFB]

Mo/Me

19 Mar 2007 at 04:39 - 38

about 110 of each. I did some vermin farming, and not only did I make enough money for two sets of 15k armor, I got enough alcohol to enjoy it, and enough clovers to cover me when that pesky rat takes advantage of me.

Cebe

The 5th Celestial Boss

Join Date: Jul 2006

Inverness, Scotland

The Cult of Scaro [WHO]

E/

19 Mar 2007 at 09:55 - 39

69 Green Bits, 85 Ales.

anna

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Aug 2006

19 Mar 2007 at 15:28 - 40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phaern Majes

If you had tried you'd know that you can time the flip of a coin. That way you can always catch it a certain way. Well not always, but with enough practice you can get what you want most of the time.

Anyways my ratio is pretty close to 1:1, though I don't have alot of either.

I'm sorry.

I thought we were talking about fair coin flips. Based on my brief comment on statistics (which I really know nothing about. I was just using common sense), I think it was apparent that that was what I was discussing. Because of that, it makes sense that any direct responses to my posts would be on point--fair coin flips.

The intent of my first post was just to clarify something for the original poster (a clarification which he seemed to ask for). He stated that he didn't understand why he personally wasn't seeing a significant "random" swing one way or the other.

Well, if the drops truly are random (I assume that the OP was correct about that), there is a sensible reason for his drop split--for why some results are expected, and why others are very very difficult to achieve (such as 10 consectuive fair coin flips each resulting in tails).

Anna

EDIT: Final tally - a paltry 13 clovers and 16 ales (unchanged from my last report)