Lockpicks? Asset or not...

Lawliet Kira

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Dec 2006

E/Me

All about luck

Phoenix Tears

Phoenix Tears

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Feb 2007

the base chance of opening chests with lockpicks and the pick ending not up being break should be imo higher than 10%

base chance should be imo 25% therefore slightly decrease the % gainage per title rank of wisdom/treasure title

Nuclfus

Nuclfus

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: May 2007

Screw guilds.

Me/

I'd rather see a slight drop in merchant price than an increase in the odds of retaining. I like the concept of it being a slim chance, but 1.5k does seem a little high of a price just for having that slim possibility. I don't feel that strongly though, so whatever.

You can't see me

You can't see me

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2006

USA

P/W

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuclfus
I'd rather see a slight drop in merchant price than an increase in the odds of retaining. I like the concept of it being a slim chance, but 1.5k does seem a little high of a price just for having that slim possibility. I don't feel that strongly though, so whatever.
Agreed. The profit yeild is much too low to logically buy them, but the low rentention rate is key, or else anyone with Rank 6 Wisdom could make fortunes. They should cost 1k maximum, IMO.

MisterB

MisterB

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2005

Planet Earth, Sol system, Milky Way galaxy

[ban]

W/

Who actually pays 1.5K for lockpicks, though? If they lowered the price to 1K, then they would actually sell at 850. Lockpicks aren't designed to be profitable. If you buy them you should expect to lose gold, because they are a gold sink. I'm actually happy that they have that chance to retain, however small. It feels like a bonus when you keep it.

Sharkman

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2005

Quote:
Originally Posted by You can't see me
They should cost 1k maximum, IMO.

Yes, they should be cheaper than Obsidian Keys and Phantom Keys, even though it is already more beneficial to use lockpicks over them.

Zeek Aran

Zeek Aran

Forge Runner

Join Date: Aug 2006

Earth, sadly

BORK

A/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharkman
Yes, they should be cheaper than Obsidian Keys and Phantom Keys, even though it is already more beneficial to use lockpicks over them.
They are already 1.2k, or 1.250k at most. Only an idiot wouldn't buy from players. So... AT THE MOST they are the same price as an elite dungeon key and far my useful. Their price is fine.

BlueNovember

BlueNovember

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2005

WTS GW2 items for Zkey

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterB
... If you buy them you should expect to lose gold, because they are a gold sink. ...
...to the same degree as standard keys.

This thread seems to be discussing the merits of opening chests vs not opening chests, not really lockpicks vs keys. With the former, you will likely make a profit if you run a lot of chests in areas that have a chance of a rare desireable skin.

With lockpicks vs keys, it's easy to solve mathematically; lockpicks are better than keys once you reach certain (generally low) title break points.

Eg, if you buy lockpicks at 1.25k and open 600g chests (30% native bonus), you should expect a return on your investment if you have a 22% bonus from titles and base (10%) chance. The cheaper the key, the more bonus you need to make it viable.

Crippie its Tom

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2007

Canada!

none atm

R/A

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jongo River
The impression I get is that the GW lottery system works extremely well if you're an obsessive farmer/trader - all the wasted keys/picks get paid for by that 1 in a million valuable drop. It's not so good if you're just hoping for the odd decent weapon for your own characters. You waste so much time/cash, that if that 1 decent weapon you eventually find is for your own use, you generally would have been better off buying it.


Your logic is flawed. You would not be better off buying that 1 in a million drop, or else it wouldn't be worth it for thr obsessive farmer/trader.

ensoriki

ensoriki

Forge Runner

Join Date: Aug 2006

Canada bro.

A/D

I farm just to sell crap

Most money I've made in my entire 2 years of GW >>
30k.

I tried chest running, it was okay.
Tried chest running with lock picks.
Did not like it, the fact that I can get drops that are worth crap piss me off.
Maybe the price of lock picks would pay for themselves if I sold to players....

Buster

Buster

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2006

Elona

Clan Eternal Legion

D/W

Lockpicks are only an asset if you are going for a title, if not then it will clearly diminish your returns in a hurry.

Haggard

Haggard

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Dec 2005

Urmston, Manchester, UK

Greener Pastures [DVDF]

W/Rt

Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster
Lockpicks are only an asset if you are going for a title, if not then it will clearly diminish your returns in a hurry.
They can be an asset if you already have high ranks in the relevant titles too. For example, I run 600g chests using 1.2k picks, with r5 lucky and r4 treasure - this means that I get a 62% retention rate - which beats the break even point of 50%. So not only do I save money but make further lucky and unlucky progress!

Also, the point about being able to carry them for anything stands too. This is an advantage in that if you run in Witman's Folly (or anywhere outside Echovald and Jade Sea), you can't get discount Shiverpeak Keys from Cantha, but you can get cheap picks

maraxusofk

maraxusofk

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2005

San Francisco, UC Berkeley

International District [id多], In Soviet Russia Altar Caps You [CCCP], LOL at [eF]

W/

Quote:
Originally Posted by toddhd
I'm done with keys and lockpicks too. I don't understand how people are getting such good stuff. I've never gotten better than a purple item from a chest, and usually its blue.
oh rly? thks for playing.

i dont even bother opening chests in HM. yeah sure u usu get more golds but that comes at the price of it breaking ALMSOT EVERY SINGLE TIME. well for me at least. w/e if i want treasure hunter pts i just go open in normal.

Kiragi Yagami

Kiragi Yagami

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Nov 2007

Elician Mercinaries [eLm] Leader.

E/Me

Quote:
Originally Posted by onerabbit
Best thing ever imo

lets you work on 4 titles, why the hell u complaining.
also lets you waste an INCREDIBLY large amount of money -.-

on topic, i only ever use picks that i get as drops, and i usually only get purples. the best item i ever got from a chest was a perfect q9 15^50 inscribed zealous draconic spear of fort. pretty much everything else i get is merchant fodder or a single good mod at best.

Sharkman

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2005

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeek Aran
They are already 1.2k, or 1.250k at most. Only an idiot wouldn't buy from players. So... AT THE MOST they are the same price as an elite dungeon key and far my useful. Their price is fine.

I guess you missed the /sarcasm in my post.

Zeek Aran

Zeek Aran

Forge Runner

Join Date: Aug 2006

Earth, sadly

BORK

A/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharkman
I guess you missed the /sarcasm in my post.
Yes, yes I did. Apologiez.

Croco Clouds

Croco Clouds

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Mar 2007

Montreal, QC, Canada

Divine Illumination [LaZy]

E/A

For some weird reason, my lockpick retains (49%) more in HM than NM maybe it's just an "illusion" from the amount of gold weps dropped.

Buster

Buster

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2006

Elona

Clan Eternal Legion

D/W

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haggard
They can be an asset if you already have high ranks in the relevant titles too. For example, I run 600g chests using 1.2k picks, with r5 lucky and r4 treasure - this means that I get a 62% retention rate - which beats the break even point of 50%. So not only do I save money but make further lucky and unlucky progress!

Also, the point about being able to carry them for anything stands too. This is an advantage in that if you run in Witman's Folly (or anywhere outside Echovald and Jade Sea), you can't get discount Shiverpeak Keys from Cantha, but you can get cheap picks
Yeah but that is if you have r4 or r5 like you said. How many people you know actually have high ranks in lucky title ? Maybe a few here and there possibly ?

mortis corpus

mortis corpus

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Mar 2007

Private room in the Catacombs with Eve

Deaths Doormen (DOA)

N/E

i like them better then normal keys dont even buy them anymore
i usually break even and when i get low, ill work on norn or vangard or any of those title tracks for the drops

Davros Uitar

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2006

Fool Wolves

W/Mo

Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster
Yeah but that is if you have r4 or r5 like you said. How many people you know actually have high ranks in lucky title ? Maybe a few here and there possibly ?
R5 lucky here (and halfway to R6), mainly through opening chests with lockpicks.

Not everyone loves a chest, but they have been good to me over the years. Mind you it helps to know the value of things - especially when req 10 or greater stuff has value. I am sure there are people out there that merchant stuff on the basis of req and colour and have no idea that a req 10 dragon staff (fire) that is inherent 20/20 sells easily for 100K + 40 ecto, or that a blue shield sells well if it is req 7-8 inscriptable and max armour. Getting perfect rare skins that are non incribable is where most of the money is at.

One thing chests do is create inventory pressures because you become a magpie that holds on to things of value to others. Every 4-6 weeks I have a guru sale. While most of these raise in the 75-200K mark, I have had a few that have scored 500-600K per sale thread.

jiggerjay

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Nov 2006

England

Curse of the grail [Cotg]

W/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kiragi Yagami
also lets you waste an INCREDIBLY large amount of money -.-

on topic, i only ever use picks that i get as drops, and i usually only get purples. the best item i ever got from a chest was a perfect q9 15^50 inscribed zealous draconic spear of fort. pretty much everything else i get is merchant fodder or a single good mod at best.
most other titles are a huge waste of money, like drunkard/sweet-tooth, these titles are pretty useful as they help with the little things like salvage retention rates.

Pleikki

Pleikki

WTB q8 15^50 Weapons!

Join Date: Nov 2006

???oo ???ugs ???lan [?????????]

Yeah But Like i Said before Many Ppl do this For Hobby not for drops like i do My hobby's in gw are Title hunting and Chesting withoyt caring how much money i lose.. Its just fun .. While Chesting Ill do both! so i dont care if i get 100 purples in row without retaining.. its just way it goes then.. and Btw Lockpick = 1.2k/e At Kurzh traders :P

cebalrai

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Mar 2007

Mature Gaming Association

Me/E

It all depends on what's "worth it" to you. If you're trying to generate income by running chests, then yeah, it's unlikely to be worth it. It's such a silly pain in the rear to sell things in this game that chest running is not really viable compared to other ways to make a buck

Personally, I decided the other day that I was going to equip half a dozen more heroes. I went on a chest running binge for a couple days and got all the weapons I needed. I made gold killing monsters in the process too. So it was worth it for me at that time.

Back when Nightfall was new, a person could chest run for profit. I made about 1 million gold that way (that I still mostly have). The economy was much different back then though, and the demand for items was high. The economy is too borked up to pull this off now though

Zaganher Deathbane

Zaganher Deathbane

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jul 2006

Las Vegas

N/

For me locpicks are an asset. In HM, I have 23% chance to retain them but turns out about 50% is usually retained. In NM, I have about 70% chance of retaining it instead of 53%:-)

Haggard

Haggard

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Dec 2005

Urmston, Manchester, UK

Greener Pastures [DVDF]

W/Rt

Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster
Yeah but that is if you have r4 or r5 like you said. How many people you know actually have high ranks in lucky title ? Maybe a few here and there possibly ?
I do, I said it in my post

Torqual

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Mar 2006

W/Mo

Just a quick point. I have worked hard to improve my retention rate and am close to both R4 Treasure Hunter and R4 Lucky.

I have been running chests a lot in Normal Mode, Shiverpeak Chests, in Witman's Folly using lockpicks. My retain is 55% and the golds come out at 33%. I have run around 500 chests like this and kept a log of all the RP/BP/RG/BG results. I found that for the first 300-400 everything was *exactly* as per the proportions above. But now, suddenly, I have noticed some kind of 'anti farm' kick in. Over the last 200 lockpicks I have broken around 70% and the loot from the chests has been 10% gold and 90% purple. This is not just a bad run, it's just BP, BP, BP endlessly now.... I leave it a few days and then come back and it's the same.

Maybe this is just the game telling me to go and do something else, but I really wanted to get these titles to a meaningful level as I play a lot of Hard Mode and wanted 30% retain HM and 60% NM.

Now I see that A-Net has put some anti-farm flag on my account, probably guessing that I am a bot, and I have no idea how to make it go away. This really sucks - A-Net is lying to you about retention rates. It can change whenever they feel like it. And they must HATE chest runners. All I can say now is that it's now costing me too much to continue, and I'm going to have to stop. A real shame, as I was actually ENJOYING chest running.

Just wondering whether anyone else has experienced or noticed this?

I noticed the same effect on 55-farming once. After a few runs, there's no golds, nothing decent.

Lady S Shiva

Lady S Shiva

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Dec 2005

CA

LOD???

W/Mo

stop crying and get up ur lazy ass go work on the title, i have 30% chance in hm and 60% in nm, it works fine and i don't even have treasure, wisdom and lucky title maxed (r6,5,4).
for ppl with low rank, the best to do is buy 600g or lower keys, chest run until u got higher chance to retain lockpicks then start buying them.
if u just want better drops, then u have to buy lockpick and use them in hm, and of course they will break.

Torqual

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Mar 2006

W/Mo

I am assuming the last post was written as a reply to the OP (capitals are your friend, by the way). OP was posted many months ago when lockpicks were a new thing. Not sure why someone used a Res Sig on it actually.

mrvrod

Guest01

Join Date: Jul 2006

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeek Aran
>_< It's fine if the person says they were questioning the same thing and wanted to bring it back instead of making a new one... IF they say that. Otherwise, it's most likely beyond the person's comprehension that the thread might be six or seven months old.
Excuse me that I have a life and don't visit here evey day. Feel free to ignore any of my posts in threads you deem to be dead. Then we can blissfully ignore each other.

.|..

leprekan

leprekan

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posers and Wannabes [nubs]

W/E

Quote:
Originally Posted by Torqual
Just a quick point. I have worked hard to improve my retention rate and am close to both R4 Treasure Hunter and R4 Lucky.

I have been running chests a lot in Normal Mode, Shiverpeak Chests, in Witman's Folly using lockpicks. My retain is 55% and the golds come out at 33%. I have run around 500 chests like this and kept a log of all the RP/BP/RG/BG results. I found that for the first 300-400 everything was *exactly* as per the proportions above. But now, suddenly, I have noticed some kind of 'anti farm' kick in. Over the last 200 lockpicks I have broken around 70% and the loot from the chests has been 10% gold and 90% purple. This is not just a bad run, it's just BP, BP, BP endlessly now.... I leave it a few days and then come back and it's the same.

Maybe this is just the game telling me to go and do something else, but I really wanted to get these titles to a meaningful level as I play a lot of Hard Mode and wanted 30% retain HM and 60% NM.

Now I see that A-Net has put some anti-farm flag on my account, probably guessing that I am a bot, and I have no idea how to make it go away. This really sucks - A-Net is lying to you about retention rates. It can change whenever they feel like it. And they must HATE chest runners. All I can say now is that it's now costing me too much to continue, and I'm going to have to stop. A real shame, as I was actually ENJOYING chest running.

Just wondering whether anyone else has experienced or noticed this?

I noticed the same effect on 55-farming once. After a few runs, there's no golds, nothing decent.
Yes same experience.

R7 treasure R6 wisdom R5 lucky here ... now almost 13000 chests opened on warrior. I noticed by R6 treasure that almost everything was high req NON max purple with a merchant price of 104 gold .. obvious farm code. Even number 10,000 was a non max req13 purple out of a locked chest .. GG anet you couldnt make the last one a good one? My worst run was 35 non max purples in a row.

Retention rates LMAO I use picks to work on UNlucky title since even with maxed title I break almost everyone of them. Those going on about making money or amazing retention rates are not being honest or have not opened enough to be an accurate judge. The title is a gold sink no more no less.

No, I have not found a way to reset the obvious farm code on chests. I have maxed almost every other title now so doing missions does not do it .. before someone suggests that.

You can't see me

You can't see me

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2006

USA

P/W

Quote:
Originally Posted by leprekan
Yes same experience.

R7 treasure R6 wisdom R5 lucky here ... now almost 13000 chests opened on warrior. I noticed by R6 treasure that almost everything was high req NON max purple with a merchant price of 104 gold .. obvious farm code. Even number 10,000 was a non max req13 purple out of a locked chest .. GG anet you couldnt make the last one a good one? My worst run was 35 non max purples in a row.

Retention rates LMAO I use picks to work on UNlucky title since even with maxed title I break almost everyone of them. Those going on about making money or amazing retention rates are not being honest or have not opened enough to be an accurate judge. The title is a gold sink no more no less.

No, I have not found a way to reset the obvious farm code on chests. I have maxed almost every other title now so doing missions does not do it .. before someone suggests that.
I've gotten 24,000 pts in unlucky from nothing but lockpicks. I don't even try to grind those points. Those are from general use.