Ectos - how low they go.

The loot scaling has clearly had an effect on the economy, but I also think it has something to do with the Obsidian armour, it's not overly sought after anymore. When somebody wears it, everyone assumed they've eBayed the account or the money for it, instead of it being prestigious. A lot of the newer armour looks better and is far more detailed.

Thus less people need Ectoplasms, especially now that the price is just continually dropping. I do see it dropping even further.

Funny though, if the price does drop to around 500g, I imagine a lot of people will go for the Obsidian armour just because they can. That might increase the price of Ectos again?

The lower the better I say, Ectos have been insanely overpriced for too long now. Them going down in price is a good thing!

Personally, I would like to see a higher demand for them in GW:EN. Fow armour sucks and is clearly outdated. Bring out Elite FOW armour or something else...It's either that or bring out a new alternative thats not insanley hard to farm.

Lootscale for teh lose.

I honestly think loot scaling has had little affect on the price of ecto. I think most of the reason is because we haven't had any new releases or classes to go with that, and GWEN is due to be released soon. This creates a double-whammy to the economy:

1) Most of those who were going to get Obsidian armor on any of their characters probably have by now.

&

2) People are saving up for new armor/rare items that will be coming with GWEN.

Hard Mode is another factor to consider. The more rare items introduced into the economy means the supply goes up, and demand goes down. It's clear to see all the higher-end rare items are dropping in price every day because of this, which means more and more items that were once 100k +XXecto is slowly going to drop below 100k - which means little to no more use for ecto as a form of currency. This realization among owners of several ecto or several stacks of ecto might force a liquidation and reinvestment into something like gems/jewels or lockpicks or whatever.

Just the way it is, I'm afraid *bought Vabbian for his necro when both gems were at roughly 8k*...

Anyway, ecto SHOULD be cheaper. Its (improper) use as super-currency made its price skyrocket, when it should cost roughly the same as shards (needed in the same amount for FoW) do...

Loving every drop in price. I wish Shards would plummet at such a rate as well.

As soon as the downward trend started, I converted all my ectoplasm to diamonds, working under the assumption that GW:EN being the final instalment, it will feature a use for diamonds. If things go my way I could make millions. If not, oh well, it's not like I have a use for riches anyway.

Exactly. I stopped worrying about money as soon as I heard about GW2...

I hope that price will drop.

I converted them into bricks of clay under the assumption they will ever be useful

Realize that the value of gold going up is not a good thing. Not when other items (armor, in particular) are the same price. As for ectos, I used to trap UW a long time ago, but as soon as the downward trend started, I quickly rerolled that character (I hate rangers anyway, now its a lvl 2 going for 3 survivor paragon ). I applaud those who changed their ectos to something stable like diamonds or lockpicks....I wonder if there was anyone who did that in the first place....hmm....

A few common misconceptions to amend...my inner economist is screaming.

Supply curves and demand curves operate independently of each other; it is their interaction that determines price. A shift in supply will never impact aggregate demand in any way, nor vice versa.

Removing the additional utility of ectoplasm as a form of currency should indeed bring its price closer to that of obsidian, ceteris paribus. The determinant factor in that situation is whether or not the two materials share equivalent drop rates. If players find it easier to farm one than the other, clearly the material that is more readily available will be less expensive.

I think this is perhaps the most important part. Save for a few types of items supply and demand as judged by the merchant is not fixed. It would be nice to see some type of graph that puts this into a visual perspective. Not just a basic supply/demand chart but one with actual values.

We know the price of ectos has been dropping from 10k to 5k to who knows what, but if anyone knows the price of ectos on a given date a chart could be made to explain the issue in more detail.

If Shards and Ectos have the same drop rate, they should have the same value, unless one is in higher demand because of some other constraint. That isn’t fow armor, it’s the false market demand on them, cause of KEWL factor. They are not kewl, they are an item for which to make fow armor, they should be nothing else.

Ectos are a good example of a luxury good gone bad. People have touched on this before as well. If everyone who wants FOW armor has it at the current price level, the price will decrease as there is less demand. if farmers continue to produce ectos the price will continue to decrease. If farmers move to another type of good, the price for ectos will reestablish at a new level, although lower than before.

If a player is concerned about money in GW, my own option is to quite playing, but if you play GW to make money as if it was a real stock market, you have to think like it.

If bots farm ectos, players farm ectos, and everyone farms ectos, STOP FOR THE LOVE OF GOD FARMING ECTOS. The more ectos on the market, the less they will cost. End of Sentence.

Demand could always be the same and as long as more people sell ectos to the merchant the lower their cost will be. Either don’t sell them to the merchant at all and create a black market, or sell to the merchant something else other than ectos.

Then as less people sell ectos the price will increase again. The problem is human nature. Say I want fow armor, but I’ve been watching the price of ectos decrease. I know I should wait more time until the price is lower. This will make the price lower just because of our wanting it to be lower, its called Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.

The Reserve (anet) has to make a choice (which I bet they already have), let demand slowly decrease over time as more people leave guild wars or get fow armor, or cause an increase need in ectos. I would expect the answer is simple, ectos are a crafting material nothing more or less. They are not and should not be used for or as money.

The merchants of GW (Players) than need to invest in a different item, which I suggest being gold. There is no one item that has a fixed cost, lock picks are close, but their price could change for whatever reason. Gold wont loose value or gain value it is what it is.

I would hasten a guess that the economy of guild wars is not in ruins as everyone may say it is, it is simply changing as people wants and desires change. That is no different than our own economy in the real world. The price of cars doesn’t decrease because we ‘left’ living.

As Posted by October Jade and tying in other thoughts..
Demand for Ectos has gone down due to other Aromors. I personlly like only the Paragon FOW set. Vabbian Armor is actually pretty tough for the averae player to get, hence the Ruby and Sapphire market is a bit high and relatively stable.

Ectos are not part of loot scaling and with the intro of Passage Scrools, more people can farm them. The more Ectos sold to the Merchant, the less valuable they are on the market.

Gold Items now are plentyful and it needs to be perfect and rare skin to be worht anything...I was an an Urgotz group yesterday and someone was selling +30 Health Bow grips for 10k. Our party leader laughed and gave the potential seller one of the 4 +30 bow grips he had in invnetory.

I haven't gotten a drop yet since going to the UW and only one in the TomPs.It would be nice to see an incease however as cheap as they dropping it still costs to buy them and not the casual gamer can do this.What is the casual gamer suppose to do if they would like FoW on say more than one char.I see a lot of players wearing FoW I wonder if they really farmed for it or e-bayed it.

It is ok if the price goes down but there is the cost of the other mats as wll as the crafting costs as 1 set of FoW use to be as worth as 1 ecto.

When it comes to rare items, such as antiques in real life, that is not true at all. How much of an item there is, the less people want it. Simple as that.

What you are describing is known as a Veblen good, and to my knowledge has not ever been proven to exist. The concept of such an item only occurs as a means of supporting the hypothesis of conspicuous consumption.

If you're interested in debating econ theory, feel free to pm me. This probably isn't the best place for it.

Lootscaling means that to make money fast, you have to farm something exempt from it, i.e. ectos or shards. This means that with more people farming ecto, supply increases and thus price decreases... combine this with obsidian armor being less prestigious and not looking as cool, and here you go with the price drop...

Funny, because I thought that's what this thread was about.

Do you disagree with the rarity of an item having any effect on how desirable it is? It's honestly common sense, not any kind of economic theory. If Crystalline Swords were the skin of collectible swords, do you honestly think there would be equivalent demand for them, and equivalent value attributed to them? Think about it.

Yes, Of course!
/sarcasm

They're back up to 5.5k. And I hope they stay around there.

The thing is, it is an overgeneralization, with plenty of counter example.

Counter example: A good Guild Wars counter example is the plain staff wrapping.

This was a rare staff wrapping that only could be salvagedd for a few weeks after the game was released before a.net fixed the glitch. It just said "staff wrapping" and had no mods of any kind attached to it. If you attached it to an item, it would be destroyed (as it would cease to exist with no mod). Herbalizer (a collector of odd ball items who is one of the richest power traders on guru) paid 1 million gold for one of these a couple of months ago. It is probablly one of the only ones known to exist on an active account.

Now, the item had value because it was rare, HOWEVER, that does not mean it was desirable (Herbalizer paid 1 million gold more of as a bounty fee to get people to research and look for one for him). NO ONE else would have paid that much for that item. According to your logic, more people would have wanted these glitched staff wrappings then crystaline swords.

Basically, rare things can have value because they are rare, but that value is not always related to demand (few other people, if they had as much money as Herbalizer, would have wanted to buy a worthless gimich item).

No no no, demand is not solely based on the number of people demanding, but how much the people demand it. In other words, that item, even if Herbalizer was the only person wanting it, is in high demand because they really wanted it.

Take an expensive sports car, for instance. Not everyone, in fact, very few may even want to own that particular sports car. However, those that do want it, really, really want it - BAD. They will pay "out the ass" for it, if they can afford "out the ass", which means their demand is "out the ass". Now let's say there are only 2 in existence. That makes this sports car super rare. Those who will pay "out the ass" will also offer up their leg, arm, and son/daughter to get one. If there are instead millions in existence, those same people will know the company simply needs to get rid of them, and will likely no longer pay "out the ass", but a more reasonable, lower price.

In summary, demand is simply how much that item or items are "in demand", despite the number of people that demand it.

Congratulations. You've just explained diminishing marginal utility, a primary structure within the law of demand. The flaw this time lies in the fact that the price is not driven down by the first guy, who wants the sports car "out the ass." It's driven down by the last guy, who wants it just enough so that he's indifferent between the car and the cash he would've had instead.

Perhaps your next lesson can be about consumer and producer surpluses; I always enjoyed those.

The price is driven down by the first guy who knows there's a surplus. It's all about what knowledge the consumer has.

Regardless, if something is desired purely for it's rarity and is in limited quantity, such as rare items in my original post or antiques, demand is greater. Once the quantity, or supply, has risen, demand lowers. The sports car example is not a good one anyway, simply because there is other value to it, such as how good it looks, or the power/speed of it.

I'm talking about a specific type of item - the rare item. The value behind the rare item is subject almost entirely to how rare it is.

Again I ask, if Crystallines dropped from every 10th kill as a r9 15^50 gold, do you honestly think the same people who want them now would want them then? You don't suppose that the demand for Crystallines would drop if the market was flooded with them? Honestly?