How does the so called "random generator" for minipets work? - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

Abnaxus

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Nov 2005

Europe

Keepers of Chaos

23 Nov 2007 at 22:47 - 1

I think that there's something "at least" strange in the mechanism.

This evening before doing a mission with my warrior, I logged with one of my mule character and found a 1st year birthday present.
Opened, fungal wallow - well I have a couple of them already, anyway ...

Finished mission, I wanted to place some items on a mule, the previous was full, logged to another and found another 1st year birthday present.
Opened, fungal wallow

Bleah, very bad luck, 2 in the same evening.

Did another mission with my friend to help him in Tyrian guardian, then I took my dervish because I bought some scythe upgrades and wanted to use them.
My dervish had his 1st year present ...
My friend offered himself to open for me, I thought that was not necessary, opened myself ...
Fungal wallow.

Three in the same evening on the same account. It is possible that it's a coincidence, but it's not likely at this point.

The 3 characters were not created in the same day, it's possible that some presents had been there for 1 week or more.
All the 3 of them had been parked in the same place (guild hall) for 1 month at least. I opened the 3 packages there, with an interval of half an hour each.

In my opinion, the day/hour and the place where you are when you open (or get?) the present are in some way taken into account by the "random" generator.
After my experience, this "randomness" is a bit suspicious.

I don't complain about the quality - with the exception of Mallyx and asians I already have dozens of minis, mostly bought with exception of Lich and Djinn which I received on my characters - but I'm just not convinced about the fact that the random generator is really random.

Antheus

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

23 Nov 2007 at 22:53 - 2

Quote:

After my experience, this "randomness" is a bit suspicious.

Your interpretation of randomness is wrong. What you're talking about is balanced or fair.

I MP I

Hustler

Join Date: Nov 2006

in between GW2 servers

Mo/

23 Nov 2007 at 22:56 - 3

I've opened presents on characters with the same birthdays in 2 minute intervals. Never got something like that. Same with my friends. Though whats happened to you, has also happened to others on this forum. Its either bad luck, or the generator is bugged to hell.

kartmaster

Academy Page

Join Date: Oct 2007

Kansas

Slayers of Worlds [SoW]

23 Nov 2007 at 23:00 - 4

My mule character sat for quite some time as well (at least a month before I discovered the birthday present) and what do you know...Fungal Wallow! Bleh.

It is suspicious that they were all parked for quite sometime before opening the present. And all were fungal wallows, but I'd still chalk it up to chance unless there were more examples to go on.

Abnaxus

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Nov 2005

Europe

Keepers of Chaos

23 Nov 2007 at 23:06 - 5

I clarified in my OP that I'm not complaining about the fungal wallow, had I received 3 bone dragons I would been happier because of the cash income of course, but I would have reported the same way as an example of something really strange.

Skuld

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Sep 2005

Thousend Tigers Apund Ur Head [Ttgr]

A/

23 Nov 2007 at 23:22 - 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antheus

Your interpretation of randomness is wrong. What you're talking about is balanced or fair.

QFT.

characters

Fates

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2005

Kanuckistan

Mirror of Reason [SNOW]

R/

23 Nov 2007 at 23:27 - 7

This isn't new. There have been a # of threads on here about people getting the same thing over and over. A friend of mine has gotten 3 gwens.

Tender Wolf

Banned

Join Date: Jul 2007

All over Tyria, Cantha, & Elona

The Eternal Night Vanguard [TEN]

R/

23 Nov 2007 at 23:42 - 8

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fates Monk

This isn't new. There have been a # of threads on here about people getting the same thing over and over. A friend of mine has gotten 3 gwens.

3 GWENS?! *steals* lol Just kidding. I've only had one birthday and the only reason I had what I got (burning titan) was because another friend gave me his because he didn't want it. Other than that, never seen this happen. Except for a friend who logged in for the first time in months and had 4 birthday presents waiting for him. 2 necrid horsemen and 2 jungle trolls. And a mini Koss (one jungle troll was from a while back).

Jongo River

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Oct 2006

23 Nov 2007 at 23:53 - 9

Bah, random just sucks. It's a fictional concept, based on flawed math - I'd rather live in a communist state, than a random state. Give us ####### vouchers for our birthdays, like smart relatives do.

I once heard the lottery referred to as "the idiot tax" - well it made me laugh, so I thought I'd mention it here!

Trub

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Mar 2006

Sitting in the guildhall, watching the wallows frolic.

Trinity of the ascended [SMS]+[Koss]+[TAM]=[ToA]

24 Nov 2007 at 00:09 - 10

baby wallows are the best mini in the game..

<3

notskorn

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

Clan Roxor

W/E

24 Nov 2007 at 00:10 - 11

Has anyone ever actually said that its random?

Str0b0

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Carolina

N/Me

24 Nov 2007 at 00:13 - 12

random does not mean that you will get something different every time. Think of it this way, random means that every time you get a present the game rolls some dice. Just like when you roll dice in real life it is entirely possible that you will get the same result multiple times.

holababe

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2006

Goon Squad [LLJK]

Mo/

24 Nov 2007 at 00:17 - 13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trub

baby wallows are the best mini in the game..

<3

Turtles then Wallows.

And we're getting skewed data because everyone who gets 3 of the same pet comes running here to report it...everyone else who gets normal minipets doesnt.

arcanemacabre

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Kryta Province

Angel Sharks [As]

24 Nov 2007 at 00:21 - 14

Quote:

Originally Posted by holababe

Turtles then Wallows.

Agreed

My wife and I have both received completely different pets for each character's birthday. I think I've had maybe 6-7 birthday presents so far, all random and different. Rare? Well, the only rare one I've gotten was Rurik, the rest were white, but at least different.

NoXiFy

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2007

★☆٭Ńēŵ~ŶờЯК٭☆★

The Benecia Renovatio [RenO]

Mo/Me

24 Nov 2007 at 00:25 - 15

You think thats bad luck? Try opening 29 Coffers to find out that the best thing you recieve is 5 Margonite gemstones.

ALL I wanted was a Mallyx because I was always extremely attached to DoA and did it four or more hours a day for several months to help obtain a Armbrace.

I now have 4 Primival remnants still sitting in my storage from the last 10 Coffers I've bought. Oh, and 6 LB scrolls.

I've always seemed a problem with "randomness" when your 600/Smite'ing in Underworld for example the prize drop is an Ecto. Now I do both sides, smite and 600, and have noticed... that the total ecto count of a 30-40minute run is usually 3:1. I'm lucky to get 1ecto... or even a purple.

I know that my 1st birthday in three months will be a complete waste because... for one, 3rd year mini's will be out within 3 weeks of it. And I know that by that time if im lucky enough to actually score a Bone Dragon (which won't happen) that that will sell for 50k tops.

hurric

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Nov 2006

BC

24 Nov 2007 at 00:40 - 16

^^ ouch dude. I opened 6-7 coffers and 1 was an armbrace. Woulda been better off to exchange 15 sets instead.

For me it's greens. I've farmed many many times for greens with guildies just to see everyone get a green and I come home empty handed. Worst was darksong which dropped 2-3 times for everyone else but not for me on different chars. I finally got 1 probably after 100 times or so. Bday coming this Sat or Sun so will know!

edit: Also computers .random() function is not truely random because it depends on the seed that it uses so there's actually a repeatable pattern that it generates. When I was in university we wrote a "true" random generator so unless they've modified their randomizer instead of using C++'s build in math.rand() functions it won't truely be random.

Abnaxus

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Nov 2005

Europe

Keepers of Chaos

24 Nov 2007 at 00:50 - 17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antheus

Your interpretation of randomness is wrong. What you're talking about is balanced or fair.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Str0b0

random does not mean that you will get something different every time. Think of it this way, random means that every time you get a present the game rolls some dice. Just like when you roll dice in real life it is entirely possible that you will get the same result multiple times.

Well guys, I know how the probability of independent events works.

The example of the dice is correct.

My question is: this is not rolling dice.
This is a software.
We don't know how it was programmed.
How can we be really sure that this unknown software perfectly emulates a dice roll model?

I'm closer to this opinion:

Quote:

Originally Posted by notskorn

Has anyone ever actually said that its random?

and this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by hurric

Also computers .random() function is not truely random because it depends on the seed that it uses so there's actually a repeatable pattern that it generates.

Of course, we'll never know how things really work, only few people in A.net dev team have the answer.

Vinraith

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Dec 2006

24 Nov 2007 at 01:00 - 18

I've often wondered if the GW randmization seed isn't based off the clock, because it seems like repetition occurs more often in cases where multiple items drop at or nearly at the same moment.

The Meth

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2007

R/

24 Nov 2007 at 01:02 - 19

How the Guild Wars Mini Pet Generator™ works:

An Anet employee is sitting in his cubicle 24/7. Every time someone opens a present he has to push a button that determines what pet they will get. If you have received crappy mini pets, it is because Anet hates you!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vinraith

I've often wondered if the GW randmization seed isn't based off the clock, because it seems like repetition occurs more often in cases where multiple items drop at or nearly at the same moment.

I've thought the same thing often, just today the same person got the same skin gold from 2 consecutive monster drops. In the whole map maybe 6ish other golds dropped?

pkodyssey

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Nov 2005

In a cardboard box with Internet

The Order of the Frozen Tundra (TofT)

N/

24 Nov 2007 at 01:10 - 20

Random = Conspiracy

They look to see what you last present was and then multiply your chance of getting the same thing again by 2000%

Valeria

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Oct 2005

Germany

PaRe

W/

24 Nov 2007 at 01:14 - 21

It is very likely that SOMETHING almost impossible happens

As for the pets i dont think they did something more complicated than using a random generator.

Reminds me of an FoW run 8 man team and the shards were distributed 5:1:1:0:0:0:0:0 seems unfair but is still just random.

strcpy

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2005

One of Many [ONE]

24 Nov 2007 at 03:48 - 22

I made myself Ravioli yesterday, one of the things I like to do is make some "surprise fillings". That is, I make a few of the with fillings contrasting to the "main" ones. Last night I had about 30 or so small ravioli's, 25 of them were a plain venison/onion filling and 5 of them were sausage/bacon. And no, this isn't a parable, when I did this I actually thought of all these "not random" posts we have been getting lately.

I cooked them all in one go in a big pot then transfered them to a bowl, I poured in the cheese bechamel and stirred it up, and finally poured the whole thing onto a plate to eat - I figure that is about as random as one gets and it normally results in never knowing when you are going to get a different bite.

The first five pieces of ravioli I ate were the sausage ones - all of them in one go. Now, obviously that shouldn't have happened (very very small chance there) so I'm betting that reality warped into something that caused my sausage ravioli to be in the exact random places on the plate I chose to stick my fork.

Or, maybe it falls into the "random" category along with you abysmal record of getting multiple fungal wallows.

I've been lucky on my mini-pets, the only one duplicated on close to 15 characters (three on their two year pets,) was a Burning Titan. That shouldn't happen either. I have three made the same day, in fact the three were made within minutes of each other and used as mules (until the increased storage came about). Now, don't get me started on the number of high end items I have found that have *no* modifier (and thus, even in nightfall will not take an inscription) and is, thus, worthless.

Aera Lure

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2005

In Baltar's head

Bring Out Your Dead [BOYD], former officer [LBS]

Mo/

24 Nov 2007 at 04:00 - 23

Well, you could eat those ravioli and get all five sausage ones in a row, and I really wouldnt be all THAT suprised. What has me suspicious about the mini-pets is that I have gotten multiples of two or more of: trolls, devourers, siege turtles and juggernauts... and that is IT. I have gotten NOTHING else lol, except shockingly, one Djinn. That's more akin to eating the five sausage ones, then eating the five meatball ones, then eating all the rest cheese. Odds on some sort of repitition happening twice in a row are significantly lower, especially given there are other whites I could have gotten. I would understand it a bit more if the spread was a little wider, but its just multiples of two of the first year and two of the second year pets across all of my characters, and then the one Djinn that broke the pattern.

Croco Clouds

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Mar 2007

Montreal, QC, Canada

Divine Illumination [LaZy]

E/A

24 Nov 2007 at 04:11 - 24

3 Fungal wallows> 3 whiptails

Crom The Pale

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Nov 2006

Ageis Ascending

W/

24 Nov 2007 at 04:20 - 25

Technically there is no such thing as "random" when it comes to computers.

A random number is generated with an algorithm, given the same seed it will generate the same number every time. Most use a clock to generate the random number and some use multiple inputs(day X month X year X time = seed).

Its also possible that the algorithim when given 2 different seeds will generate the same number, its rare in good algorithims but it does happen.

DOCB22

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jul 2005

[SGC]

24 Nov 2007 at 04:36 - 26

no clue but out of 7 toons 4 got Hydra's

Xue Fang

Banned

Join Date: Nov 2007

24 Nov 2007 at 05:05 - 27

Out of 30 toons I've gotten 6 Bone Dragons, 1 Shiro, 1 Rurik, 4 Gwens, and some random trash.

=)

AlienFromBeyond

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

Heros of Titans Realm [HotR]

W/

24 Nov 2007 at 05:07 - 28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crom The Pale

Technically there is no such thing as "random" when it comes to computers.

A random number is generated with an algorithm, given the same seed it will generate the same number every time. Most use a clock to generate the random number and some use multiple inputs(day X month X year X time = seed).

Its also possible that the algorithim when given 2 different seeds will generate the same number, its rare in good algorithims but it does happen.

Well, you can have truly random numbers if you have a truly random seed.

N E D M

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Sep 2006

Officer's Club

Gameamp Guides [AMP]

24 Nov 2007 at 05:34 - 29

Q)How does the so called "random generator" for minipets work?

A)poorly.

snikerz

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Dec 2005

Rt/A

24 Nov 2007 at 05:59 - 30

ok heres something for you guys to think about
logged into my other account, grabbed 5 unopened presents and transfered them to my main account.

opened them all rapidly and here are the results:
4 trolls, 2 whiptails

note that i got 4 trolls in a row, then 2 whiptails in a row, ive had similar experiences with other accounts not mine.

its almost like the present you get is determined by the time of the day it is or something.

pumpkin pie

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jul 2006

behind you

bumble bee

E/

24 Nov 2007 at 07:01 - 31

glad someone feels my pain, (not that I am happy you got the same problem) my problem is necrid horseman....

sign this idea here! thanks

tmakinen

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

www.mybearfriend.net

Servants of Fortuna [SoF]

E/

24 Nov 2007 at 07:18 - 32

Concerning the Schrodinger's Cat issue, the contents of a birthday present are determined when it's opened (proof: I opened one just before a rollback, then reopened the same present after the rollback, got different pets each time). Contrast this to loot which is determined when the explorable is initiated (but assignment and scaling is still determined at the time of the drop).

Other than that, it's all random and for every player who gets 3 wallows in a row there are 9999 who do not, and thus don't talk about it on these forums

strcpy

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2005

One of Many [ONE]

24 Nov 2007 at 07:48 - 33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aera Lure

Well, you could eat those ravioli and get all five sausage ones in a row, and I really wouldnt be all THAT suprised.

MUCH rarer to do what I did eating last night than what you describe.

Quote:

What has me suspicious about the mini-pets is that I have gotten multiples of two or more of: trolls, devourers, siege turtles and juggernauts... and that is IT.

Look at the pigeon hole principle and the chances for the whites - that *should* happen fairly often. I'm WAY more surprised by picking the ravioli.

Quote:

I have gotten NOTHING else lol, except shockingly, one Djinn. That's more akin to eating the five sausage ones, then eating the five meatball ones, then eating all the rest cheese.

That would be shocking considering it was a cheese sauce on top of the food

Again the Pigeonhole Principle along with the rarity of non-white drops makes this quite into the realm of "probable". So far my luck in getting only one duplicate across all I've opened is MUCH rarer than what you did (what luck, I get one of everything that is ultra-common and unwanted).

Quote:

Odds on some sort of repitition happening twice in a row are significantly lower, especially given there are other whites I could have gotten.

Nope, past rolls have no effect on new ones. See the "Gambler's Fallacy". Even if you had gotten 15 fungal wallows in a row the chances to get another Fungal Wallow is the same as every other time you opened a present. If you have rolled 15 1's on a six sided die you still have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 1 - you will note that (if, like the die) each outcome has an equal probability - you have the exact same probability of rolling 5 ones as you do rolling a 1,5,3,5,2. Now, the chances of each "grade" dropping in mini-pets isn't the same so it isn't quite that simple, but the idea is still the same.

Quote:

I would understand it a bit more if the spread was a little wider, but its just multiples of two of the first year and two of the second year pets across all of my characters, and then the one Djinn that broke the pattern.

There is no "law of averages" to cause the spread to go a bit wider, only "Law of Big Numbers" and you aren't anywhere near "big numbers". If you opened *all* Fungal Wallows it still very much can fall under "random" (in fact, GW is more than large enough with so few possible outcomes that I would have expected something VERY close to that to have already happened). There have been enough recordings of treasure opening that we know it to be random - the data collected is large enough to somewhat count as "big numbers".

As to the idea proposed (once more) about pseudo-random number generator's (PRNG) in computers, please see my recent post in the "loot scale" thread in the Q&A forum. Essentially while deterministic the output acts in a statistically random fashion - that is you can not tell the difference between it's output and that of something truly random. Therefore it is irrelevant to the sake of getting multiples of the same pet that it is using a PRNG. That is a great example of a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

strcpy

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2005

One of Many [ONE]

24 Nov 2007 at 07:58 - 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmakinen

Concerning the Schrodinger's Cat issue, the contents of a birthday present are determined when it's opened (proof: I opened one just before a rollback, then reopened the same present after the rollback, got different pets each time). Contrast this to loot which is determined when the explorable is initiated (but assignment and scaling is still determined at the time of the drop).

Yes, but loot *is* still like Schroedinger's Cat - each instance contains all possible loot drops until we observe said instance and at that point loot is determined (assuming they seed at the initiation of the instance and not as you go along).

The only problem I have is that every time I have observed an enemy they seem to die quickly, though I guess when you use a Scythe to observe them then you can't but help but interfere with the state of what you are observing.

Sha Noran

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

http://tinyurl.com/2jlusq

Idiot Savants [iQ]

R/

24 Nov 2007 at 15:34 - 35

Who cares how it determines your present? Everyone wants Bone Dragons and Gwens, but not very many people are going to get them. That's how lotteries work.

It's something that ANet gives you as a complete bonus just for having played the game for a while. It's one of the few things that they did that they didn't have to, and really shouldn't be just another excuse for their fanbase to whine.

Aera Lure

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2005

In Baltar's head

Bring Out Your Dead [BOYD], former officer [LBS]

Mo/

24 Nov 2007 at 15:43 - 36

^ Wasnt ever a whining topic, to my knowledge. Its simply clear the random generator is not so random, hence the OP's post. Agreed though this topic has been raised a few times before, to no real conclusive or useful end.

fenix

Major-General Awesome

Join Date: Aug 2005

Aussie Trolling Crew HQ - Event Organiser and IRC Tiger

Ex Talionis [Law], Trinity of the Ascended [ToA] ????????????????&#

W/

24 Nov 2007 at 15:54 - 37

It was never meant to be random. Rare minipets aren't meant to appear lots. Crappy ones are. Hence the overabundance of Fungal Wallows.

Crom The Pale

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Nov 2006

Ageis Ascending

W/

24 Nov 2007 at 16:34 - 38

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlienFromBeyond

Well, you can have truly random numbers if you have a truly random seed.

Note that seed is a number, so if you can generate a random seed, you are generating a random number. This is not currently possible.

chowmein69

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2007

24 Nov 2007 at 16:38 - 39

ive only got 2 of te same minis from a present and they both were trolls and kirins

Solas

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Oct 2006

Ireland

Currently LF Active HA Guild, Glad 2, Comm.3, R2

E/

24 Nov 2007 at 18:23 - 40

Go into a cave with trolls, kill 1, chances are you got a raven staff
2nd try: Raven Staff
3rd Try:...Raven staff
... : Another white
... : Purple
... :white
...19th try: golden non-max item

you may get the gold on the 1st try or the 101st try, but golds have better drops then purples and purples have better then whites.

you were jsut unlucky that you got the most common and unwanted mini.
but hey, HoM fills quick with em

my 1 and only pressie was a seige turtle