Hmmm.. did I miss something on the wiki? (confirmed mini polar bear) - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

xshadowwolfx

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2006

California | Ascalon

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 01:50 - 481

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ogrefist Hellchaser

you know 4million ppl play gw... probably a bunch arnt playing cuz of family and holidays... lets assume thats a total of 20,000 people did the quests. 0.0001% of 20,000 is.................2. so i dont see how people expect to see like 20 of em being reported seeing as not every1 uses GwGuru, or the Wiki's for taht matter

Guild Wars has around 1 million players. Lets assume 100,000 played during Wintersday. Out of those 40,000 played the quest at least once. Then of those 20,000 did the second quest. Theres the 8,000 or so players that are doing 50 runs a piece.

This is pure guessing and has no real basis, but whatever imaginary numbers I come up with I can't think of the number of dungeon runs any less than 200,000 over the twelve days. Either there's a lot of missing Polar Bears or the drop rate is insane, similar to that of Ghostly.

I would guess maybe its 1/100,000

Shanaeri Rynale

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2005

DVDF(Forums)

Me/N

03 Jan 2008 at 01:51 - 482

According to Gaile, this is been an available drop since the start of wintersday. Now since this is the first we've seen of one(and grats btw) either the drop rate is rarer than a non Ursan team or DoA OR they only started dropping today which is a little odd seeing as it goes tomorrow.

It's a great idea, I just hope that it's a super rare drop and not a bug that only made it drop in the last few hours.

xshadowwolfx

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2006

California | Ascalon

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 01:53 - 483

Even if it remains super rare I would like to see it drop from the wintersday past chest. This will only increase its supply and not really affect its rarity, if that makes any sense. Like the Ghostly, people complete HoH every 15mins.

ThunderStruck

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Feb 2006

The Arctic Marauders [TAM]

03 Jan 2008 at 01:54 - 484

I'm honestly GLAD ANet put this Polar Bear in the game with an obscene drop rate... everything was becoming too common (for the most part). There needs to be more of these "one-in-a-million" type items, IMO.

Antitorgo

Academy Page

Join Date: Dec 2006

Duty

Mo/Me

03 Jan 2008 at 01:54 - 485

Quote:

Originally Posted by Witchblade

btw, even if i am sure to get a negative answer...

can we get a lil more % info from dat file?

Percentages are based server side -- so no.

azizul1975

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jul 2007

GMT+8

The Elite Guard of Tyria (TEGO)

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 01:54 - 486

hah? polar bear? 1000000e..Most I Do...Most I Do....lol

j/k

Witchblade

Polar Bear Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

03 Jan 2008 at 01:55 - 487

wait a minute !!!!

i didnt get Lucky points at alll

/troll

Shakti

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2006

Home...

Vier Reiter [Vier]

03 Jan 2008 at 01:56 - 488

Quote:

Originally Posted by Witchblade

wait a minute !!!!

i didnt get Lucky points at alll

/troll

Greedy

1212121212

Cherrie

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2006

Echowald

Marked by [Fury]

Me/

03 Jan 2008 at 01:58 - 489

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThunderStruck

I'm honestly GLAD ANet put this Polar Bear in the game with an obscene drop rate... everything was becoming too common (for the most part). There needs to be more of these "one-in-a-million" type items, IMO.

I don't see any reason for 1-in-a-1m items.. any. And defenetly not in a game ANet claims GW to be.

Ogrefist Hellchaser

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2007

Lions Arch

Ravenous Ravens

W/Mo

03 Jan 2008 at 01:58 - 490

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Guild Wars has around 1 million players. Lets assume 100,000 played during Wintersday. Out of those 40,000 played the quest at least once. Then of those 20,000 did the second quest. Theres the 8,000 or so players that are doing 50 runs a piece.

This is pure guessing and has no real basis, but whatever imaginary numbers I come up with I can't think of the number of dungeon runs any less than 200,000 over the twelve days. Either there's a lot of missing Polar Bears or the drop rate is insane, similar to that of Ghostly.

I would guess maybe its 1/100,000

I'm sure i read on guild wars.com that they were "proud to announce" that they crossed the 4 mil mark.... either way.. im gna farm this till the end of wintersday and longer.. 24 hours longer actually cuz then im gna get kicked from the server

i swear the second i logg off sum1 is gna get the bear on their first try

Run #61.... no bear
off to run #62

Dante the Warlord

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2006

W/R

03 Jan 2008 at 02:00 - 491

lol does anyone think that maybe you don't NEED the quest to get the polar bear? Maybe just going into the dungeon is good enough? Looks cool and reminds me of those polar bears from that new film...wats it called.... golden compass. If not, then wow that will be one RARE pet, more then ghostly hero.

Hott Bill

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2007

Shards of a Broken Crown

R/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:00 - 492

I'm on run 43................................................ ..........this sux

xshadowwolfx

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2006

California | Ascalon

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:01 - 493

Actually here's a better number of how many played during Wintersday.

Each district can hold around 150 people. Kamadan and Lion's Arch combine averaged about 140 districts. 150x140 = 21,000 per finale who cared enough to play during Wintersfest. There were 10 finales and its a guess that out of the average 21,000 people at least for 6,000 it was their first time.

So...6,000x10 + 15,000 = 75,000. With 75,000 rounded down to 70,000 players who cared enough about wintersday. 50,000 of them did two of the quests and 5,000 of them did the quests 50 times.

Roughly the chest has been opened 250,000 times over Wintersfest?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ogrefist Hellchaser

I'm sure i read on guild wars.com that they were "proud to announce" that they crossed the 4 mil mark.... either way.. im gna farm this till the end of wintersday and longer.. 24 hours longer actually cuz then im gna get kicked from the server

i swear the second i logg off sum1 is gna get the bear on their first try

Run #61.... no bear
off to run #62

Okay 250,000 multiply that by at least 2...500,000...Rare mini.

My personal opinon is that the chest has been opened a lot more though.

Polgara Val

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2007

TSR

Mo/Me

03 Jan 2008 at 02:02 - 494

On average how long does your run last guys? I am assuming most of you are doing the Strength of the Snow quest?

Pol

xshadowwolfx

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2006

California | Ascalon

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:03 - 495

10-15mins roughly

pygar

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Dec 2007

KORM

R/Mo

03 Jan 2008 at 02:04 - 496

Congratz witchblade

If u wanna hit the real jackpot with yur Polar Bear, dont sell it.....charge people admmision to see it instead

Saelis Scarfang

Academy Page

Join Date: Dec 2007

Savior of Souls

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:05 - 497

I don't mind it being uber rare, I just would rather have known it existed so we could all bust our asses farming for it instead of finding out on the last day that it does and then not have any more time to do the quest.

I'm at work now.. wonder if I should wake my boyfriend at home to force him to farm for a polarbear now.. lol.

Congratulations Witchblade! Funny how people point out stuff like pixels and whatnot.. then offer no apologies whatsoever. I stared at the M for ages wondering how I couldn't see that it's off by a few pixels.. Lol.

I want a teddy!

Angel Puriel

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2007

Rt/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:05 - 498

Grats Witchblade. I have just 1 question for you:

Were you serious about selling it? Or was your thread in High End just a way to show it off? I was just curious, not that I can buy it or anything.

Leslie

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Nov 2005

England

Slash afk [afk]

A/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:05 - 499

wonder if you need to have killed ursula the white in the kamadan grenth quests first to be eligible to obtain the mini ursula? :/

Fidelity

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Sep 2007

03 Jan 2008 at 02:05 - 500

5 mins to get to the last bit, then upto 10 mins if i go afk and let Freezie and the others kill the grentches.

Rory The Warlord

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2007

Realms Beyond

W/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:05 - 501

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polgara Val

On average how long does your run last guys? I am assuming most of you are doing the Strength of the Snow quest?

Pol

8 minutes. Give or take 30 seconds.

Ogrefist Hellchaser

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2007

Lions Arch

Ravenous Ravens

W/Mo

03 Jan 2008 at 02:06 - 502

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polgara Val

On average how long does your run last guys? I am assuming most of you are doing the Strength of the Snow quest?

Pol

About 7 mins.. i run there and help out.. if you dont help out it could last 15?

oh and btw im new so i dont know how to quote more than 1 person sum1 above this post said: Maybe you dont need the quest?

You do need the quests(Strength of Snow or Straight to the Heart) because bears drop only from the Wintersday Chest.. the chest found in the normal dungeon is called Chest of Wintersday Past... also Gaile Gray told this a few posts back

Witchblade

Polar Bear Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

03 Jan 2008 at 02:07 - 503

even if it were in Past version.. you only get 2 items tops and it's longer
damn ^^

Saelis Scarfang

Academy Page

Join Date: Dec 2007

Savior of Souls

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:08 - 504

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leslie

wonder if you need to have killed ursula the white in the kamadan grenth quests first to be eligible to obtain the mini ursula? :/

that'd be sadistic if you had to kill the real bear to get a minibear!

Selket

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2005

Grand Court of Selket/Sebelkeh

What If You Had An Outpost Named After You [slkt]

W/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:08 - 505

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leslie

wonder if you need to have killed ursula the white in the kamadan grenth quests first to be eligible to obtain the mini ursula? :/

that would mean witchblade would've probably gotten another.

xshadowwolfx

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2006

California | Ascalon

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:08 - 506

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 555 (209 members and 346 guests)

See, this shows how many people care...the chest has been opened a lot.

BTW how did you get the run down to 7mins? Warrior speed boost?

Tom Stone

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2006

[pol]

N/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:10 - 507

Ive done it in less than 6 mins on warrior - using speed boost and avoiding all grentchies on the way - it is possible, if there are no elementalists on the way...

KamikazeChicken

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2005

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:10 - 508

I hope anet prolongs the stay of the Rift Warden to allow people ample time to try for a polar bear. It'd be a shame if everyone was forced to wait 'til next year. o.o

Lil Mystique

Academy Page

Join Date: Aug 2007

In England soon to be with Leslie ^.^

Slash Afk [afk]

A/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:10 - 509

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Actually here's a better number of how many played during Wintersday.

Each district can hold around 150 people. Kamadan and Lion's Arch combine averaged about 140 districts. 150x140 = 21,000 per finale who cared enough to play during Wintersfest. There were 10 finales and its a guess that out of the average 21,000 people at least for 6,000 it was their first time.

So...6,000x10 + 15,000 = 75,000. With 75,000 rounded down to 70,000 players who cared enough about wintersday. 50,000 of them did two of the quests and 5,000 of them did the quests 50 times.

Roughly the chest has been opened 250,000 times over Wintersfest?

Okay 250,000 multiply that by at least 2...500,000...Rare mini.

My personal opinon is that the chest has been opened a lot more though.

Did you count the Euro, China, Japan, etc. servers?

Witchblade

Polar Bear Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

03 Jan 2008 at 02:10 - 510

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 555 (209 members and 346 guests)

See, this shows how many people care...the chest has been opened a lot.

BTW how did you get the run down to 7mins? Warrior speed boost?

sometimes snowmen handle the fight faster, you can also help during the first wave if you hide quickly after that

Ogrefist Hellchaser

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2007

Lions Arch

Ravenous Ravens

W/Mo

03 Jan 2008 at 02:11 - 511

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 555 (209 members and 346 guests)

See, this shows how many people care...the chest has been opened a lot.

BTW how did you get the run down to 7mins? Warrior speed boost?

Yup that and the evertrusty spammin qeqeqeqeqeqeqeqeeeqeq while in speedboost ensures you will never get hit

Polgara Val

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2007

TSR

Mo/Me

03 Jan 2008 at 02:12 - 512

I was thinking about using speedboosts, but i average around 7 min per run so dont know

azizul1975

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jul 2007

GMT+8

The Elite Guard of Tyria (TEGO)

Mo/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:13 - 513

like someone said above...be in private palace...film your moment with the bear... buy a domain..put the film on the domain... publish the link...see it goes to rank 6 google pagerank in few days.... then sell it..make money...$$$$$....

Celestial_Kitsune

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2006

Me/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:14 - 514

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Actually here's a better number of how many played during Wintersday.

Each district can hold around 150 people. Kamadan and Lion's Arch combine averaged about 140 districts. 150x140 = 21,000 per finale who cared enough to play during Wintersfest. There were 10 finales and its a guess that out of the average 21,000 people at least for 6,000 it was their first time.

So...6,000x10 + 15,000 = 75,000. With 75,000 rounded down to 70,000 players who cared enough about wintersday. 50,000 of them did two of the quests and 5,000 of them did the quests 50 times.

Roughly the chest has been opened 250,000 times over Wintersfest?

Okay 250,000 multiply that by at least 2...500,000...Rare mini.

My personal opinon is that the chest has been opened a lot more though.

Given 250,000 opened chest the outcomes are as follows:

Probability of a drop - Mean number of drops - Standard Deviation

0.001 - 250 - 15.8
0.0001 - 25 - 5.0
0.00001 - 2.5 - 1.6

Do not worry people...

"The winner of the annual Wintersday battle between Grenth and Dwayna has been announced: Grenth, God of Death and Ice, was declared overall victor of the nine individual face-offs that took place on Wintersday. This means that winter will linger for just a while longer in Tyria and Elona.

Through Noon PST (20:00 GMT) on Thursday, January 11, 2007, players can continue to compete in the Snowball Arena, farm the hell out of the holiday quests trying to get a polar bear, and dodge Grentchies in Kamadan and Lion's Arch.

The extension of the Wintersday Festival will afford players everywhere the opportunity to join the event, for many of them had extreme lag and disconnects.

Enjoy the Winterday Festivities for a few days longer, and we wish you all the best in the New Year!"

Polgara Val

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2007

TSR

Mo/Me

03 Jan 2008 at 02:14 - 515

If someone made money with an animated 3D mesh then i think its time i changed proffession, no pun intended

cellardweller

Likes naked dance offs

Join Date: Aug 2005

The Older Gamers [TOG]

03 Jan 2008 at 02:14 - 516

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ogrefist Hellchaser

I'm sure i read on guild wars.com that they were "proud to announce" that they crossed the 4 mil mark.... either way.. im gna farm this till the end of wintersday and longer.. 24 hours longer actually cuz then im gna get kicked from the server

i swear the second i logg off sum1 is gna get the bear on their first try

Run #61.... no bear
off to run #62

Word of advice - stay away from poker machines.

Ogrefist Hellchaser

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2007

Lions Arch

Ravenous Ravens

W/Mo

03 Jan 2008 at 02:15 - 517

Quote:

Originally Posted by xshadowwolfx

Actually here's a better number of how many played during Wintersday.

Each district can hold around 150 people. Kamadan and Lion's Arch combine averaged about 140 districts. 150x140 = 21,000 per finale who cared enough to play during Wintersfest. There were 10 finales and its a guess that out of the average 21,000 people at least for 6,000 it was their first time.

So...6,000x10 + 15,000 = 75,000. With 75,000 rounded down to 70,000 players who cared enough about wintersday. 50,000 of them did two of the quests and 5,000 of them did the quests 50 times.

Roughly the chest has been opened 250,000 times over Wintersfest?

Okay 250,000 multiply that by at least 2...500,000...Rare mini.

My personal opinon is that the chest has been opened a lot more though.

By your calculations 250,000 times 2 your saying 2 bears drop from each chest?!?! maybe SLIGHTLY off there

Lil Mystique

Academy Page

Join Date: Aug 2007

In England soon to be with Leslie ^.^

Slash Afk [afk]

A/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:17 - 518

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celestial_Kitsune

Given 250,000 opened chest the outcomes are as follows:

Probability of a drop - Mean number of drops - Standard Deviation

0.001 - 250 - 15.8
0.0001 - 25 - 5.0
0.00001 - 2.5 - 1.6

Do not worry people...

"The winner of the annual Wintersday battle between Grenth and Dwayna has been announced: Grenth, God of Death and Ice, was declared overall victor of the nine individual face-offs that took place on Wintersday. This means that winter will linger for just a while longer in Tyria and Elona.

Through Noon PST (20:00 GMT) on Thursday, January 11, 2007, players can continue to compete in the Snowball Arena, farm the hell out of the holiday quests trying to get a polar bear, and dodge Grentchies in Kamadan and Lion's Arch.

The extension of the Wintersday Festival will afford players everywhere the opportunity to join the event, for many of them had extreme lag and disconnects.

Enjoy the Winterday Festivities for a few days longer, and we wish you all the best in the New Year!"

Could you post a link please?

Witchblade

Polar Bear Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

03 Jan 2008 at 02:17 - 519

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polgara Val

If someone made money with an animated 3D mesh then i think its time i changed proffession, no pun intended

cant imagine the thing if an ebayer drops one

Celestial_Kitsune

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2006

Me/

03 Jan 2008 at 02:18 - 520

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lil Mystique

Could you post a link please?

Read the text carefully and guess if it is legit lol