picks vs ectos

ok now im in a delema, you all know the recent perma shadow sin has made it terrible easy to farm the under world and so terribely easy to get ectos, now many people have been telling me the ecto will drop, ive been asking many people thier opion and these are my thoughts, If shadow form sin has been in effect for about a month how come the ectos value hasnt plumeted. Wouldnt the decline of ectos mean the decline of everything else that uses ectos as a trading transaction. For those people who have many stacks of ectos these would mean a very large loss of money. Would it be wise to invest ones cash into a more steady items ex. lockpicks, whose price has been known not to change?

thanks

I dont think ectos will drop, because im sure ppl have been using the ectos they go to craft fow armor or chaos gloves. If they did drop, Gogo Z-keys. Nono Picks

And no matter how easy they make it the price never faulters from 4.8K-5.5K (with very few exceptions) for a year now. I have no way of proving it, but I bet it's fixed as far as lowest price is allowed. Too many things in the game in the last year should have brought the prices down further.

The lowest price ive seem them was only at 4.5k flat.
im starting to think they are at a fixed price.

Yesterday in Kamadan, people start to sell their ectos or trade with zaishen keys. I wonder the price drop of ectos will actually happen...

Everyone had started to do that when the Z title came out.

I think the ecto drop thing is just another form of the whole y2k issue. People think it will happen, its possible it will happen, but it hasn't and it is unlikely to happen.

And if worst comes to worst, then ectos will fall under 5k and people will sell Z-Keys instead of Ectos. Nothing more.

the price of ectos used to be pretty high. 15k or more at one point. when lockpicks were introduced, they were at around 7-8k. now they're at around 5k, usually less. personally i'd make trades in lockpicks since their values are pretty much set.

It better not drop... Im hoping that it doesn't become the next ruby or onyx... I just received a large sum of ectos and have no room for money anymore, i think i might trade for z-keys.....Also i noticed that it HAS dropped, it is 4.8k at trader when it was usually always at 5.5k im getting worried and i might start resorting to using z-keys since they have a use even if the trade medium dies, though it will fluctuate,,,

Ectos aren't going to fall in price, they barely fluctuated due to ursan, and they arent gonna change due to SF sins, especially since a) its been a month & price is steady and b) those with high end transaction demand ectos at that price.

But if you are worried, then go for it trade em in for picks/zkeys.

I love how people are bringing up the "but it's been a month", tbh you need to give it more time than a single month where people will be still using ectos vs. the supply the farmers are bringing in. I don't necessarily think ectos will drop to like 1k but I think the average price window is going to lower.

lowest price ive seen for ectos at trader was 2.9k each. theres even a thread about it here on guru...

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10262982

i was lucky enough to get 130 of em for under 3.5k each that day =D

anyway...on topic, yes i think ecto price might possibly drop below 4.8 at trader in the next few months. this will take time because people are so used to 5.5 that they buy from trader when it hits 4.7-4.8. i would invest in picks or just spend it on titles or HoM.

either way, picks is safer because ecto price certainly isnt going to rise.

where, post link

UW has always been easy to farm, the perma shadow sin is just another way to do it among the long list of quick and easy UW farms.

It's too hard to predict as we do not operate in a 100% supply and demand universe (supply is *not* limited).

At the hight of ecto farming - the early 105 prot bond monk build - inflation was so high due to the amount of ecto being farmed that even semi-popular minor runes were out of the price range of anyone who didn't ecto farm and ecto's were WAY easier to farm then. You could aggro everything and come back two hours later and still be alive. No Dying Nightmares and nothing fled AoE damage so easy to kill too.

I started GW at that point and nearly quit because I couldn't afford even the lowest armor at Ascalon let alone any useful runes. I stuck with it hoping that things would either change or I would get a lucky drop as other than that I really enjoyed playing the game (things changed, never had the lucky drop). Nothing like sup vigor and absorption runes costing 100k at the trader and all without heroes increasing demand by a large amount. Superior monk runes were all over 50k and desirable minors were 20+.

If the past is to be assumed then this will cause prices to *rise* due to people having too much money and able to spend large amounts on anything they want for no reason at all. Though I don't see the SF change to be that drastic, I doubt it will change much at all anyway as it doesn't change that much. It only moves the line a little bit towards towards the casual player and I do not find it that clear which way this change will go - more supply or more money/demand.

Of course I could be all wrong as this will cause everything to be worth nothing - but then I suppose the 100k vigors and 20+k black dyes never occurred either.

the day that the ectos droped down was becasue some one sold them to the merchant they didnt stay that low at all

For now ecto seems pretty stable and is fluctuating between 4.8k and 5.5k. Anet needs to add more ecto sinks, some new trader with weapons or armor for ecto (in the same way they introduced chaos gloves) because people would clearly go and get it removing even more ecto from circulation.

This feels more like a discussion so I'm moving it to Riverside.

I just love these "Oh noes the sky is falling" threads. The chaos ecto farm is nothing new. It was possible to farm this area BEFORE the sin update. The only thing the update did was just to make it a little easier (now you don't have to be so precise on your spell casting). When the price of ectos drop at the trader then people see the drop and buy some back so the price goes back up. It has done this consistantly for a long time now so I don't see this changing.

I'm pretty sure most of the ectos being farmed are either going into someone's storage; being bought by someone to go into their storage, or being used for obby armor and such. I really doubt people are going to flock to the trader to unload their ecto, and drive the price down.

If all the UW farming (other than the new perma sin style) hasn't deflated the ecto market lately (like the ruby) then I really don't see it happening.

1. We already have a "the sky is falling because of the SF 'uptade'" thread.

2. I explained twice now in the other thread why the bottom is not going to fall out of the ecto market. Put briefly, the appearance that there's going to be a huge increase in supply is an illusion. After 3 years of nonstop farming and hoarding, the ecto supply is so large that the extra ecto from the SF farm have a very small effect on the size of the supply as a whole. Search out my first post in the other thread for more details.

3. The idea of lockpicks as a currency is only supported by idiots and people in big faction farming alliances. Seriously, why on earth would you support a currency that someone else could buy 25% more of for the same amount of gold? Are you trying to sabotage your own buying power? Moreover, there's no trader. Unless you can find a seller who actually wants a pile of lockpicks, or is happy to sit around while you sell them to chest runners instead of just finding another buyer, you're going to lose 50% of their value selling them to the trader to raise cash quickly.

I might add that Z-Keys as a currency is also a dumb idea, since they don't have a trader or even a merchant. So can can neither buy nor sell them in large amounts quickly when you need to.

Armbraces as a currency is the dumbest idea of the bunch, since they've been duped so much that they are probably the most common item in the game.