It'll be interesting to see what happens to prices when favor from maxed titles reaches zero. We'll still see, I expect, lots of little windows when people max a title, and then everyone will run for the statues and kneel down and zoom in.
Personally, I expect a panic spike in ecto price (but not a HUGE spike, just a small one) as that moment approaches and not long after it passes (plenty of people might still be wanting the FoW armor; plenty more might take a stock-market-style gamble that the price, even if it has hopped up a little, will continue to creep back up higher and higher (thus making a profit in the rare-materials/currency market)), and then, especially if windows of favor become rarer and rarer, we'll see a slow rise in the cost of ecto.
I have no idea what it might cap at. I have little sense of the demand for FoW armor (which would add a secondary pressure to the favor system: need someone to max a title before one could get a party in for the armor) and Chaos gloves. If people want these (and they therefore take ecto out of the market, tightening supply after favor goes), then prices could creep back into the 8-10k range. If everyone's got the loot they want on their fully pimped tertiary characters, let alone primaries, then we might see the price hold near 5k, as a unit of currency, but not as a desired material.
So, how long now till zero minutes of favor?
What happened to Ecto and Shard Prices
englitdaudelin
lorph
Quote:
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Originally Posted by englitdaudelin
It'll be interesting to see what happens to prices when favor from maxed titles reaches zero. We'll still see, I expect, lots of little windows when people max a title, and then everyone will run for the statues and kneel down and zoom in.
Personally, I expect a panic spike in ecto price (but not a HUGE spike, just a small one) as that moment approaches and not long after it passes (plenty of people might still be wanting the FoW armor; plenty more might take a stock-market-style gamble that the price, even if it has hopped up a little, will continue to creep back up higher and higher (thus making a profit in the rare-materials/currency market)), and then, especially if windows of favor become rarer and rarer, we'll see a slow rise in the cost of ecto. I have no idea what it might cap at. I have little sense of the demand for FoW armor (which would add a secondary pressure to the favor system: need someone to max a title before one could get a party in for the armor) and Chaos gloves. If people want these (and they therefore take ecto out of the market, tightening supply after favor goes), then prices could creep back into the 8-10k range. If everyone's got the loot they want on their fully pimped tertiary characters, let alone primaries, then we might see the price hold near 5k, as a unit of currency, but not as a desired material. So, how long now till zero minutes of favor? |
This means that on average, we will have favor for 80% of the day.
(1440-300)/1440 ~ 0.8.
I don't think this will put a dent on the ecto farming especially when underworld scrolls cost nearly 1 platinum.
Even if UW scrolls go up in price, a person can easily farm enough ecto to cover the cost of buying one, and that's not even counting the scrolls that frequently drop on a farming run.
Samurai Goroh
I played guildwars for 2.654 years and Ive never seen an ecto, where do I get them? Nevermind I dont wanna know , I dont want to spoil my GW fun with leet knowledge. It might just turn me into a bitter old GW hack complaining on the forums. 
Issac
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Originally Posted by Samurai Goroh
I played guildwars for 2.654 years and Ive never seen an ecto, where do I get them? Nevermind I dont wanna know , I dont want to spoil my GW fun with leet knowledge. It might just turn me into a bitter old GW hack complaining on the forums.
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Actually I hope the prices drop lower so it'll be easier for me to buy them instead of farming lol.
aapo
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Originally Posted by englitdaudelin
It'll be interesting to see what happens to prices when favor from maxed titles reaches zero.
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Issac
I bet that's the time ANET ganna add a death title lol. Getting 15k ppl maxing it in 2 days or something like that.
Fay Vert
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Originally Posted by Issac
They drop in UW and have a rly low chance of dropping in FoW.
Actually I hope the prices drop lower so it'll be easier for me to buy them instead of farming lol. |
Tyla
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Originally Posted by Fay Vert
Its not so much where they drop, but what drops them. They are rare in FoW because only the Banshees/Wailing Lord drop them. Mostly these mobs can be found in UW, but also Tombs or the Primeval Kings, and you can even get them from Bloodstone Fen (when bonus is failed). Some ecto dropping mobs appear in some festival events.
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GreatBabai
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Originally Posted by Tyla
That's new to me, like ectos dropping in some festivals. Educate me please.
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--
Banished Dream Riders can drop ectos duiring Dragon festival that happens in Cantha (Shing Jea Island)
Pleikki
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Originally Posted by Jesses Paradigm
i remember the good 'ol days where ectos were 100k
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Hyper Cutter
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Originally Posted by Holly Herro
So in theory, shards should be more expensive than ectos...?
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Jensy
Yeah, well, we haven't had LBSS since January, which means it's due sooner rather than later.
That would at least keep favor going until the holidays.
That would at least keep favor going until the holidays.
Yichi
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Originally Posted by Hyper Cutter
They should be about the same price, as rubies and sapphires are...
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Don Tomaso
just a thing arenanet SHOULD have done 3 years ago.. FOW and UW are elite farming areas.. and the drops are about the same rate on.. so why not have both shards and echtos at same price??
lorph
For all those who said I was wrong and that they couldn't drop below 4k.
Magikarp
Quote:
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Originally Posted by lorph
For all those who said I was wrong and that they couldn't drop below 4k.
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aTT!kus
i cant tell when it is a good time to buy any more, they just keep dropping
Neo Nugget
this is awesome.
I thought it would be a few days till i had to change my signature again.
but it's 3.7k....wow.
I thought it would be a few days till i had to change my signature again.
but it's 3.7k....wow.
DaemonSoulHunter
i like ectos 
!
KycooGhost
Its been said before and I'll say it again. The price drop if from farming. Its a basic economic idea. If the supply of ecto goes up they become more common (farmers farming them). With them becoming common the demand goes down as they are so easy to get. With demand low people have to sell them for less and less to get others to buy. If someone were to start to sell them to the trader because the trader was currently paying more than players were than they would get a large profit. But if every farmer did this the trader would sell them for less because it follows the rules of economics that if there is allot of some thing it sets the price lower.
you now have ecto at ~3-4k each. How to solve the price drop? Nerf the farming area, make the drop rate even lower for ecto, or make materials affected by lootscaling. The demand would stay the same but the supply would drop off the face of the map because farmers would only get a few ecto a run (1-2 instead of 5-15 (correct my numbers if I'm way off))
sry for long post.
you now have ecto at ~3-4k each. How to solve the price drop? Nerf the farming area, make the drop rate even lower for ecto, or make materials affected by lootscaling. The demand would stay the same but the supply would drop off the face of the map because farmers would only get a few ecto a run (1-2 instead of 5-15 (correct my numbers if I'm way off))
sry for long post.
Thizzle
Quote:
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Originally Posted by KycooGhost
Its been said before and I'll say it again. The price drop if from farming. Its a basic economic idea. If the supply of ecto goes up they become more common (farmers farming them). With them becoming common the demand goes down as they are so easy to get. With demand low people have to sell them for less and less to get others to buy. If someone were to start to sell them to the trader because the trader was currently paying more than players were than they would get a large profit. But if every farmer did this the trader would sell them for less because it follows the rules of economics that if there is allot of some thing it sets the price lower.
you now have ecto at ~3-4k each. How to solve the price drop? Nerf the farming area, make the drop rate even lower for ecto, or make materials affected by lootscaling. The demand would stay the same but the supply would drop off the face of the map because farmers would only get a few ecto a run (1-2 instead of 5-15 (correct my numbers if I'm way off)) sry for long post. |
buckscrib
I don't know if everyone remembers but ectos dropped to this price right before Factions came out. Everyone was scared that they were going to become extremely easy to farm. Once the scare was over they went back up close to 10k. There were people who made a killing off them. It's all about supply and demand. We lose favor and the prices go back up. It happens.
Master Knightfall
That ecto drop when Faction was released was NOT because of over farming, but, of a RESET Anet did to the whole economy when they brought in ALL the regions into one economic setting. Ectos actually sold for 100gp each that day, I know I was there and bought up 300k worth of them. 
Anet made a LOT of people rich that day and we were able to sell them puppies for 15k to 17k before the depression of GW hit and now ectos are falling by the wayside like Ambers and Jadites which used to sell for 3k to 5k each when Factions came out. And we ain't never gonna lose favor no more. lol
Anet made a LOT of people rich that day and we were able to sell them puppies for 15k to 17k before the depression of GW hit and now ectos are falling by the wayside like Ambers and Jadites which used to sell for 3k to 5k each when Factions came out. And we ain't never gonna lose favor no more. lol
Ate of DK
Main reason why people are farming ecto's is to make money instead of crafting an armor. It's logical that people sell them to the merchant when nobody wants ecto's in the first place. So now it's 3,7K and people still think they get enough from the merchant. Go farm gemstone sets now if you want money... soon everyone wants them to buy weapons for their HoM!
Dante the Warlord
OMG listen up EVERYONE, the price of ecto is dropping not because people are overfarming it, which has been happening for a long time anyways, its becuase of HYSTERIA... Its worth less because many people spread the rumor that ectos were going to drop and started mass selling, while no one was buying---> ectos losing value... read the thread on this and you will understand
Phoenix Tears
in short ?
A good thing
A good thing
R.Shayne
Was farming ecto when you could solo 55 the uw and I haven't never sold a one or used them as currency. I used them for what they were intended to be used for - armor. I could care less how much grind it takes someone to get the ecto for there armor, I bought mine because I liked it and if everyone in the game is walking around in FoW armor I will still like mine.
I have to agree with Dante, I think it the price drop might have been started by farmers but became a rockslide when those had been hording ecto started getting scared and flooded the market.
One thing I have noticed is that some people are constantly farming the UW now. Repeatable farming the same area is just something I can't do, it just gets old to quickly, and especially the UW since not that many rare weapons drop. The permasin build can farm a lot more places then the UW go read the build forum it list a lot of other places it can farm. I also can’t stand for farm with the same character over and over when all the other class can farm too. Of course I am not farming for gold anymore and more for rare weapons so the UW may appeal to them more.
I have also noticed that since ecto have dropped in price, shards have risen, black dyes have risen, and material used in obsidian armor have risen. Shards at one point were triple their price before the shadow form update.
I have to agree with Dante, I think it the price drop might have been started by farmers but became a rockslide when those had been hording ecto started getting scared and flooded the market.
One thing I have noticed is that some people are constantly farming the UW now. Repeatable farming the same area is just something I can't do, it just gets old to quickly, and especially the UW since not that many rare weapons drop. The permasin build can farm a lot more places then the UW go read the build forum it list a lot of other places it can farm. I also can’t stand for farm with the same character over and over when all the other class can farm too. Of course I am not farming for gold anymore and more for rare weapons so the UW may appeal to them more.
I have also noticed that since ecto have dropped in price, shards have risen, black dyes have risen, and material used in obsidian armor have risen. Shards at one point were triple their price before the shadow form update.
kvndoom
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Master Knightfall
That ecto drop when Faction was released was NOT because of over farming, but, of a RESET Anet did to the whole economy when they brought in ALL the regions into one economic setting. Ectos actually sold for 100gp each that day, I know I was there and bought up 300k worth of them.
Anet made a LOT of people rich that day and we were able to sell them puppies for 15k to 17k before the depression of GW hit and now ectos are falling by the wayside like Ambers and Jadites which used to sell for 3k to 5k each when Factions came out. And we ain't never gonna lose favor no more. lol |
JoeKnowMo
The Hysteria hypothesis fails because it ignores the fact that the permasin is the fastest solo ecto farm build ever. The build has increased supply well beyond the usual demand.
This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense.
Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF.
If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either.
This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense.
Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF.
If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either.
Lady Raenef
In my opinion, this doesn't matter all too much. If you look, there's tons of people with Obsidian now. Even people like me who can't farm a single gold's worth have obsidian, and I got mine last year before any old drop. Anyone who's determined can get Obsidian armor, they'll just having it in shorter time. Not everyone will have obsidian, mind you. Some people will still be poor, and others don't care for the armor.
If it gets too hasty, then remove it. Give it another week or so, see what happens.
If it gets too hasty, then remove it. Give it another week or so, see what happens.
M1h4iL
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Originally Posted by kvndoom
I was at work when that happened... AIEEEEEEEEEE
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Old Skool Mk2
Aye Master NF is lying through his teeth.
Spazzer
This is awesome. I've been putting my efforts into other farms, and it looks like I can cash in on another obsidian set thanks to the overfarming.
Fates
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Originally Posted by M1h4iL
There was a rollback, so it doesn't matter if you were there or not.
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Ate of DK
Quote:
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Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo
The Hysteria hypothesis fails because it ignores the fact that the permasin is the fastest solo ecto farm build ever. The build has increased supply well beyond the usual demand.
This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense. Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF. If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either. |
Just wait till the "perma-favor" is gone. Ecto's will go up again. If you ask me then "perma-favor" destroyed more than Shadow Form. I can't wait for the UW scolls to sky-rocket... and offcourse they will be sold-out in no time.
Dante the Warlord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo
The Hysteria hypothesis fails because it ignores the fact that the permasin is the fastest solo ecto farm build ever. The build has increased supply well beyond the usual demand.
This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense. Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF. If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either. |
Now im the same way, if ANET nerfs SF, then the results could be potentially worse the their buffing, because the mass hysteria of buying would kick start the price of ectos a lot... its all based on fear of a loss of money, thats my opinion, but then again its a game, so no amount of "economy analysis" could be attributed, as many people have stated
tmakinen
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dante the Warlord
But still the ectos acquired from the permasin build does not even scratch the amount that some people have obtained through long hours of farming, just take a look at high end 1500e+xxarmbraces??? thats insane and if at least 100 people have that much then the amount produced by the permasin build is nothing compared to that maybe if they were hardcore.
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Should the wealthy class lose faith in ecto and abandon it en masse in favor of some other token ecto would crash very hard just because of this huge stash of hidden wealth. Until then the value of ecto is mostly determined by the perceived difficulty of producing new ecto, and if nothing is done to nerf the run the value will stabilize around 1k by the end of the year (unless, of course, the crash comes first). However, and I want to underline this, the devaluation and potential crash are not necessarily bad things, at least to most players. Specifically, it will not - through some magic feat - crash the economy itself.
R.Shayne
Quote:
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Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo
The Hysteria hypothesis fails because it ignores the fact that the permasin is the fastest solo ecto farm build ever. The build has increased supply well beyond the usual demand.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo
This might have prompted sell-offs by some of those hoarding ectos. However, describing a rational economic decision to sell off your assets before they drop even further in value as hysterical makes no sense.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo
Further, if the drop in price is due to hysteria, there should be a rebound in price eventually... which will not happen without a nerf to SF.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JoeKnowMo
If you believe in the hysteria hypothesis, you should be buying ectos in bulk at their current price. If not, that means you don't believe they hypothesis either.
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FoxBat
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Originally Posted by R.Shayne
Just my opinion and experience from using both builds but the 55 solo was more affective than the permasin due to the fact that loot scaling wasn't in place and getting double ecto drops was common then.
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I don't know what "double ecto" thing you are talking about. I've gotten 3 ectos from groups of aatxes before.
buckscrib
I'm thinking now is the time I need to buy some ectos.