Quote:
Originally Posted by Rahja the Thief
Oh no, it does. See that big concrete barrier? This thread is driving directly into said barrier at about 90 MPH, and the airbags are broken.
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Which is not necessarily a bad thing - assuming you're driving a DeLorean...
The Guild Wars "economy" (using the term loosely, all things considered) suffers from several things at once:
1. The MMO Syndrome. No matter how rare, new, or powerful,
any item that is obtainable as a result of gameplay will eventually lose value. This is a result of a simple process: game age = more item drops = more items obtained = more people choosing not to keep the items for themselves = more items for sale = price drop to ensure the items are sold. Farming accelerates this process, random drops slow it down, but nothing can stop it simply because MMOs and MMO-like random-drop games are
designed this way.
2. The Balance Syndrome. In gear-based games, items often scale with the characters, sometimes even requiring characters to be of a certain level to function. An item that a character has "grown out of" can still hold some value to lower-level characters, and the fact that players keep advancing characters and searching for more powerful gear ensures that there is always a "secondary market" for "used" items - assuming, of course, a steady stream of new characters that will purchase the "low-level" gear.
Guild Wars does not have this mechanism in place (
by design!) due to the need for PvP balance. On one hand, this is great for the game: everyone is on an equal footing. On another, this is bad for item value: all ("maxed") items have the same functionality, which essentially means a character can be outfitted with end-game gear right out of the gate. This removes the "need" for improving character gear, which in turn reduces the incentives for in-game transactions.
3. The Unstable Equilibrium. The way Guild Wars attempts to solve market saturation - the flood of "useless" maxed items (see
Balance) which reach the market with ever-increasing frequency (see
MMO) - is with
item destruction, specifically customization. A customized item cannot lose this status, and while such an item does confer a bonus on the character (as an incentive to have the player remove it from the market), it cannot be used by any other character (which destroys its trade value, effectively taking it off the market).
The idea is sound, but the problem creeps up due to drop rates, farming, and population size - all of which contribute to the
MMO syndrome. If the rate at which the items reach the market (due to specifically farming, but also the other factors) is greater than the rate at which items are destroyed, item prices will drop at a rate directly proportional to how easy the item is to obtain. If, on the other hand, the items are being removed from the game at a faster rate than they are introduced into the game economy, item prices will remain high. This is basic supply-and-demand economics, but the mechanisms of
item creation and destruction is the reason the economic theory applies.
Within these constraints, there is very little that can be done to "fix the economy:"
1. Decelerate item creation. If an item drops less frequently, the rate at which it reaches the market will decrease - both due to lower drop rate and due to players "giving up" on activities that no longer result in "easy money." If the rate of item creation dips below that of item destruction, prices will rise. (Simple supply and demand, nothing more.)
The obvious problem is the "player giving up" part. People quit all the time, but a sudden drop in player activity (say, a greatly reduced amount of loads of a specific zone or uses of a specific skill) coupled with negative feedback (even if it takes the form of "forum QQs") may not be perceived by the game's designers as a good thing. (See: ANet's reasoning on not nerfing Ursan Blessing.)
2. Accelerate item destruction. "Item sinks" that take an item "out of circulation"
in addition to customization could increase the price of the item. Less items on the market = people willing to pay more just to get the item. (Again, simple supply and demand.)
The problem here is that "item sinks" in Guild Wars are based on
incentives. Customization provides a tangible damage boost, something that matters greatly for PvP and which makes the item
more valuable in specific situations. Items entered into the Hall of Monuments are
supposed to provide benefits in Guild Wars 2, but this alone may not be a tangible enough incentive for most Guild Wars players to fill up their Halls and drive up prices for these specific items - at least not until the actual benefits are announced. Chaos gloves may be desirable due to being a relatively new "item sink" for Globs of Ectoplasm, but they require the player both to own GWEN and
actually like the purely cosmetic armor, neither of which is as certain as the 20% damage bonus for customization.
Since #1 is largely not an option, #2 is pretty much the only thing ANet can do. Of course, there are many ways to go about implementing "item sinks," which include but are not limited to...
...making a specific slot for
every green item in the Hall of Monuments, which would revitalize green item farming, increase the value of endgame rewards, and give insane completionists one more thing to obsess about;
...stealing a page from their old employer's playbook and implementing an "Asuran Forge," where X random rare items can be turned into 1 random rare item a-la Horadric Cube from Diablo 2, which would increase the value of rare items and give farmers and gamblers more incentive to play the game;
...introducing the "faction decay" mechanic into the Material Traders' algorithms and making a certain percentage of their stock "vanish" daily, based on how much of each specific crafting material is currently available for purchase, which would drive up the cost of crafting materials across the board - depending, of course, on what is set as the "0% decay" max price;
...turning the Hall of Monuments into an actual
storage for items, thereby increasing the value of all items that can be stored in the Hall for the storage-hungry gamers.
There, that would do it. Now shoo, clueless economic QQers